Just about flat but not quite

Posted by: on October 8th, 2019

Hello Friends,

Energy levels have slipped toward flatness overnight and this morning at 0740 when I grabbed the pictures, it looked to be in the ankle to knee high range. Skies were mostly cloudy and wind was coming lightly from the NW. Tide hit high at 0540 and is dropping to the low at 1110 as I write this. Out at sea the MHL buoy was seeing 1.4 metres of 13 second dead south swell, so there may be a few bigger waves at more optimally aligned stretches. That said, it appears likely that the swell will not improve today, in fact it will probably fade to flat by this afternoon if the models have it right.
Wind is expected to come around to the SW this afternoon and blow hard from that direction through to tomorrow evening before going southerly on Thursday. At the same time the Bureau and the swell models are telling us to expect the swell to come up. The ECM model says 1.3 metres of 8 second south for Wednesday, building to 1.6 metres on Thursday, while Wavewatch says it’ll still be flat on Weds and only 1.5 m south at 8 seconds on Thursday. ECM predicts the swell will bump along at about the same intensity to Saturday, while Wavewatch sees it fading out again over the same period. So, if we’re lucky, waves will be knee to waist plus at south exposures from Weds to Friday.
Have a great Tuesday everybody!

Sole surfer looking for a bump near the rocks

Surfer tries to paddle into a bump at the beach, 0740

Weather Situation
A strong cold front moving though southern New South Wales is expected to bring a strong southerly change to the southern coast this morning before making its way through the north coast in the afternoon or evening. A low pressure system is expected to develop over the Tasman Sea associated with this cold front. As the low moves away towards New Zealand a high currently approaching the Bight will move to the southern Tasman Sea, with southerly winds along the coast gradually easing later in the week.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast
South to southeasterly about 10 knots tending westerly 10 to 15 knots in the morning then turning south to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots in the afternoon.
Below 1 metre, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the afternoon.
Southerly around 1 metre.
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.
Wednesday 9 October
Strong Wind Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast
Southwesterly 20 to 30 knots tending southerly 20 to 25 knots in the middle of the day.
2 to 3 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers.
Thursday 10 October
Southerly 15 to 20 knots decreasing to about 10 knots during the evening.
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1.5 metres during the morning.
Southerly 2.5 to 3 metres.
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.

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