Archive for December 2019

Blustery southerly, smoke haze and no waves

Posted on December 16th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

No waves at Dee Why this morning.

Windblown, grey and tiny at 0730

Wind was straight south 15-25 kts as of 0730. Skies were partly cloudy with the odd sunny break and smoke haze reducing visibility to around 10 km. As the picture shows, it may have been 2 metres from the SSE out at sea, but the 6 second period ensured that nothing was coming into Dee Why.

A quick scan of the forecast models reveals that our near term outlook is pretty much what it’s been for the last week – ie, really small and weak mainly south wind bump.

Go well with your Monday and here’s hoping for a more interesting surf outlook soon…

Weather Situation
A southerly change associated with a trough of low pressure is moving across the central and northern parts of the coast, reaching the Queensland border by this afternoon. Winds will gradually become east to northeasterly during Tuesday and Wednesday as a high pressure system following the trough moves into the Tasman Sea by mid-week.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots early in the morning, tending southeasterly 10 to 20 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Tuesday 17 December
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots decreasing to below 10 knots in the morning then becoming east to northeasterly in the middle of the day.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then tending south to southeasterly around 1 metre by early evening.
Weather
Cloud clearing.
Wednesday 18 December
Winds
North to northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots during the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.


Not Dee Why, but maybe Longy or Curly

Posted on December 15th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

24C before 0900 and 70% humidity under high overcast skies this morning. Wind wasn’t a factor and out at sea the MHL buoy was registering a metre at 8 seconds from 172° (ie close to dead south). As the pictures indicate, there was next to no wave activity at the Dee Why end of the beach. But, you might find something in the knee to thigh high range up toward the lagoon entrance, or over the hill at mid to north Curly.  Tide is coming into a 1.89 m high at 1111 and our temp should top out at 28 along the coast with possible smoke haze. Wind should wander around through the east before settling to the NE and coming up to a standard summer issue 15-20 kts. Swell looks like luffing along at the current low level intensity through the day.
We’re set to switch into southerly mode tomorrow but, while swell heights out at sea will likely come up into the 1.5-2 metre range as a mix of south and east arrive, the models show periods in the gutless chop zone of 6-7 seconds. So, I’m not holding out much hope for reasonable conditions. Both the ECM and Wavewatch models predict weak (short period) and tiny surf through to the end of the work week. Hope they turn out to be low-balling the reality!
Have a great Sunday everyone.

 

Some manner of paddleboard race off No Mans


 

Super keen types hanging around between Kiddies and No Mans.


 
Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is weakening while another, stronger, high builds over southern Australia. These systems are promoting generally east to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coastal waters. Later on Sunday a trough and associated southerly change will move into the far south, quickly tracking up the coast during the remainder of the day.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Winds
Easterly 10 to 15 knots tending northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the morning then tending northerly in the late evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Monday 16 December
Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots shifting southerly 15 to 25 knots in the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres by early evening.
2nd Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Tuesday 17 December
Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots becoming southeasterly about 10 knots during the morning then east to northeasterly in the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Very small but not flat Saturday morning

Posted on December 14th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Light wind, an incoming tide and weak, small, but catchable waves (with the right equipment) on offer this morning. As the pictures show, size is in the knee to thigh high range. It’s not super consistent, but given the 9 second period of the 1 metre south swell, you don’t have to wait too long for another little bump to roll in. Ocean is on 20C and as of 0700 the breeze is light from the NNE. It should settle into a standard summery NEr by this afternoon. Tide is highish 1.89m high at 1025 and back to low at 1705.
While they differ a bit on prevailing direction, both the ECM and Wavewatch models are telling us to expect more very small and short period little wind swell over the coming week. If I had to pick, I reckon the best shot for a wave will be on Tuesday morning.
Have yourself a good Saturday everyone!

Tiny waves at Northy 0620

Contest on near the lugga at 0630

Coppery sea at Long Reef

Dee Why peak at 0630

Ripping at the Lugga

Stroller at south Narrabeen

Weather Situation
A trough of low pressure is moving slowly off the northern New South Wales coast, while a high pressure system over the Bight extends a ridge across southern Australia to the western Tasman Sea. Another trough looks set to affect the southern half of the coast later Saturday as a cold front passes to the south, before the next significant southerly change arrives early Monday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
North to northeasterly about 10 knots tending easterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Sunday 15 December
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the early afternoon then tending northerly in the late evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Monday 16 December
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots shifting southerly during the morning.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Quiet morning at Dee Why

Posted on December 13th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

8-10 kts of ESE wind under mostly cloudy skies and no real sign of swell at Dee Why. For what it’s worth, the MHL buoy was seeing a metre of 6 second SSE wind bump as of 0500. Tide is currently coming into the high at 0945, not that it has much bearing on the conditions. Ocean temperature is on 20C and we’re heading to a high of 23 with the chance of a light sprinkle.

Being a Friday morning, I can skip my usual thoughts on the near term surf prospects thanks to the ever reliable Goat who has produced his usual forecast for the coming surf week.

Have a good Friday everyone!

Tiny amount of white water at the point, but way too small to surf

Weather Situation
A trough of low pressure is moving slowly along the northern New South Wales coast, while a high pressure system over the Bight extends a ridge across southern Australia to the western Tasman Sea. Another trough looks set to affect the southern half of the coast later Saturday as a cold front passes to the south, before the next significant southerly change arrives early Monday.

Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots becoming northeasterly in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy.
Saturday 14 December
Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to northeasterly in the late afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Sunday 15 December
Winds
North to northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots during the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


TG’s Quick Forecast

Posted on December 12th, 2019 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 12 December 2019: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Just a quick one..

Pretty small for the coming week, but at least the air looks like being clear for most days.

Waves mostly at South facing spots, if there’s a wave. But who knows… there could be a little wave from time to time if you’re lucky.

Friday: up briefly in the morning at Places open to the South, maybe 1 metre or so, but then down later

Saturday: 1 metre or less at dead South spots, nothing elsewhere

Sunday: ditto South

Monday: maybe around 1 metre South East

Tuesday: 1 metre or less dead South

Wednesday: less than 1 metre East

Thursday: 1 metre or less North East

Keep smiling

TG

Up in the Air

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Dec 12 09:30:00 2019

MSLP Analysis for Thu Dec 12 06:00:00 2019 AUTC

Down in the Sea

Water temp around 21

image

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Possible smoke haze in the west. Winds southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Friday 13 December

Summary
Min 18
Max 23
Cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the morning and early afternoon. Possible smoke haze in the west. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon then becoming light in the evening.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Cloudy. Sydney 18 23
Possible smoke haze. Penrith 15 26
Cloudy. Liverpool 15 23
Cloudy. Terrey Hills 16 21
Possible smoke haze. Richmond 15 25
Cloudy. Parramatta 15 23
Cloudy. Campbelltown 13 23
Cloudy. Bondi 18 20

Saturday 14 December

Summary
Min 18
Max 26
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower along the coastal fringe, near zero chance elsewhere. Possible smoke haze in the west. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the early afternoon then becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Sunday 15 December

Summary
Min 19
Max 30
Smoke.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Areas of smoke haze. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Monday 16 December

Summary
Min 20
Max 26
Smoke haze.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Areas of smoke haze. Light winds becoming south to southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning then becoming light during the evening.

Tuesday 17 December

Summary
Min 18
Max 25
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 18 December

Summary
Min 18
Max 30
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Hot and sunny. Winds north to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h increasing to 30 km/h before shifting southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h later.

Thursday 19 December

Summary
Min 19
Max 32
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Hot and mostly sunny. Winds northwest to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h tending east to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day


Grey, onshore, tiny, sorry

Posted on December 12th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Wind was coming from the south at 7-10 kts before 0700 and as of 0400, the MHL buoy was showing 1.5 metres of 7-8 second wind bump from 162°. Tide was coming into a 1.8 m high at 0900. Skies were overcast and Dee Why wasn’t seeing obvious smoke haze. We’re going to to a high of 23 and there’s a 20% chance of a light shower. Beachwatch reports 20C water.

But surf? Well, the pictures tell the sad story. Not today folks.

When will it improve again, well, it’s Thursday and that means we can look forward to the Goat’s wise counsel on these matters later today. It looks pretty quiet to me, but check back this afternoon to see what the Wise One says…

In the meantime, go well with your Thursday.

The point slumbers on a grey and onshore morning

Optimists in the water at Dee Why beach

Weather Situation
A trough of low pressure is lingering on the northern New South Wales coast, while a high pressure system over the Bight extends a ridge over southern Australia. Coastal winds to the the north of the trough are north to northeasterly, with south to southeasterly winds to its south. This trough will slowly move northward over the next day or so, reaching Queensland waters Friday morning. Winds in most areas will gradually shift northerly during the weekend as a feeble high develops over the Tasman Sea.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots turning southeasterly in the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy.
Friday 13 December
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning east to northeasterly in the afternoon and evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy.
Saturday 14 December
Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Less smoke but still grey and tiny

Posted on December 11th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Visibility and therefore air quality is much improved over yesterday’s unprecedented conditions. There’s no surf to speak of at Dee Why, but you might be able to find a little ankle to knee high bump. But the MHL buoy was seeing 2.2 metres of 6-second SSE wind bump, so there’s just no surf energy in our bit of the ocean.
Outlook remains boring for our wave prospects. The models continue to predict micro conditions for the rest of the seek. So on to other things for now…
Have a good one.

No sign of surf at No Mans

Just a touch of foam around the the rocks at the point as of 0715

Weather Situation
A trough of low pressure lingers around the Mid-North Coast, with winds turning northerly ahead of the trough and southerly behind. A high pressure system over the Bight extends a ridge over the southern coastal waters. This ridge is expected to strengthen across southern New South Wales in the latter part of the week.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots inshore in the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre around midday.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy.
Thursday 12 December
Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots, tending southeasterly 10 to 20 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy.
Friday 13 December
Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots turning east to southeasterly below 10 knots during the morning then tending east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy.


B1 through the haze

Posted on December 10th, 2019 in At large.

There were some small, fun north east, short period waves early this morning north of Newport.  Should stay fun for a while yet.  Water temp has dropped a couple of degrees though.

B1 took this snap of Collaroy through the gloom on the way to the city at 8am.

Collaroy


Smoke

Posted on December 10th, 2019 in Dee Why.

0930: Visibility down to about 100 metres on Collaroy Plateau

0930 smoke density increasing…

EARLIER:

Dense smoke in Sydney

The smoke just about blotting out the sun along the beaches by 0630

Hello Friends,

What can one say? The smoke is dreadful this morning. Visibility is maybe 300 m at RealSurf HQ as I write this. And it doesn’t look like getting better until (maybe) after the south change hits.
Needless to say, this isn’t a morning to be engaging in vigorous exercise – even for those of us fortunate enough not to have any sort of respiratory condition – this morning everyone has a respiratory condition. It’s just as well that there really aren’t any waves to justify getting wet.
We’re going to a high of 36C today, so it must be hellish out on the fire grounds. So grateful for those volunteers risking their lives on our behalf.
The climate my generation grew up with is no more. We are on a new course now, away from anything our species has ever known. Most of us get this, but the 10% or so in denial or dismissive of the terrible danger to our children are over represented among our decision makers.
Stay safe everyone.

Sydney area
Hot. Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Areas of smoke haze, thick in the morning. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and early evening. Light winds becoming north to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h in the morning then shifting southerly 35 to 50 km/h in the early afternoon.

A POOR Air Quality Forecast alert is issued by the Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (DPIE) due to forecast elevated ozone and particle levels in Sydney for Tuesday 10 December 2019

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is directing north to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. A cold front will bring a southerly change to southern and central parts of the coast today, moving up into the Mid-North Coast during Wednesday.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots. A southerly change 20 to 30 knots moving through from the early afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres by early evening.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny morning. The chance of a thunderstorm inshore this afternoon.
Wednesday 11 December
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots turning southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing to 1 metre around midday.
1st Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing to around 1 metre around midday.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.
Thursday 12 December
Winds
South to southeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening


You have to be so keen

Posted on December 9th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,
Well, the pictures tell the story. Monday morning saw grey skies and moderate smoke haze from the conflagration devouring great swathes of the bush in NSW. Surf conditions were not great when I did the Manly to Dee Why trip between 0800 and 0900. The Manly stretch was too small to have any takers and even around the corner at the better exposed Curl Curl there was just one person in the water at the south end and only a handful up north. There was a fat looking little line hiding under the chop, but you’d be lucky to jag anything over the thigh-high mark. And the forecast is for that to fade away. On top of this, the wind was coming steadily from the NE at about 10 kts, so surface conditions will not improve from here on in.
The Bureau warns that tomorrow will be a scorcher with temps up to 36C along the coast and worse inland. A late southerly change should bring some relief. Surfwise both the ECM and Wavewatch models continue to show small swell heights with very short period (6-8 seconds) for the rest of the week. So, don’t expect many surf opportunities.

Catch you again tomorrow!

A POOR Air Quality Forecast alert is issued by the Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (DPIE) due to forecast elevated PM2.5 levels in Sydney for Monday 9 December 2019.

Up and riding at Dee why beach 0830

Dee Why point not showing a thing

Grey skies, onshores, dribbly little bumps, looks good for a swim at Curly 0820

The sole occupant at south Curly 0820 struggles and fails to get into another bump.

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the southwestern Tasman Sea will direct southeast to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast, with winds tending north to northeasterly during Monday as the high moves further east. The next trough will bring a southerly change to southern and central coastal parts on Tuesday before the change stalls around the Mid North Coast during Wednesday.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the late afternoon. Winds reaching up to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres around midday.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Tuesday 10 December
Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots ahead of a gusty southerly change 20 to 30 knots in the late afternoon or early evening then decreasing to 20 to 25 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Wednesday 11 December
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots decreasing to about 10 knots during the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon or evening.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning.