Archive for January 2020

A great day for a swim…….

Posted on January 31st, 2020 in Surf Reports.

Minimal surf options but a great day for a swim while we wait for the swell to rise.

Newport to Bilgola looking calm and very worthy of a swim…..

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Sent from my iPhone


Still very small this morning

Posted on January 31st, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

No real sign of a wave at Dee Why this morning. Cloudy skies early too. The MHL buoy 0500 report showed 0.8 of a metre at 12 seconds from the SSE and North Head was seeing 5-10kts of wind from the NE as of 0730. Next tide is a high at 1310. By then the wind should be nearing it’s full force of 15-25kts.

As for the outlook, well, may I refer you to the mighty Goat!

Nothing doing along the beach north from Dee Why at 0730

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea will strengthen a little as a cold front approaches from the west. This pattern will bring increasing northeasterly winds to most coastal areas today and Friday. The front is expected to bring a southerly change to the far south coast late Saturday, continuing through central parts during Sunday and stall about northern waters on Monday.

Forecast for Friday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Saturday 1 February
Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northerly 20 to 30 knots turning northeasterly in the late morning and afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.
Sunday 2 February
Winds
Northerly 20 to 30 knots shifting southerly 15 to 20 knots during the morning or early afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on January 30th, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 30 January 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Well if you’d looked at some places today you’d have said there was nothing. And you’d have been right if you didn’t have any imagination.  But if you imagined there were waves, and went out regardless, you might have caught an occasional fluke if you were lucky.

The same principle will apply for the next few days at least.

But with how weather forecast and warm water you might as well get wet…

Water temp is around 24-25 according to MHL. TG’s built in RFITW (Real Feel In The Water) sensors concur!

Friday: about 1 metre or so short period North East windswell

Saturday: maybe a little bigger, somewhere in the 1-2 metre range short period North East windswell (small at northern ends, bigger at S ends)

Sunday: let’s say ditto

Monday: Ditto North East/ East

Tuesday:  coming up somewhere in the 1-2 metre range at dead South spots, but short period, so not much chance of much happening in corners protected from the S/SE wind

Wednesday: maybe a bit more say 2, 2+ metres dead South and a bit more chance of something in protected corners with sets around 13-14 seconds

Thursday: going down, say 1-1+ South East

Have a good one

TG

Up in the Air

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Jan 30 07:30:00 2020

Latest Colour Mean Sea-Level Pressure Analysis and Infrared Greyscale Satellite

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 24-25 according to MHL, and TG’s built in RFITW (Real Feel In The Water) sensors concur!

image

Tides

Click to access tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Mostly clear.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Clear. Winds northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:30 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

Friday 31 January

Summary
Min 23
Max 31
Becoming windy. Becoming sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Hot. Cloudy start clearing to a sunny day. Light winds becoming northerly 15 to 20 km/h in the late morning then tending northeasterly 20 to 35 km/h in the early afternoon. Winds near the coast reaching 35 to 50 km/h in the late afternoon.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Becoming windy. Becoming sunny. Sydney 23 31
Hot. Becoming sunny. Penrith 22 39
Becoming sunny. Liverpool 22 37
Becoming sunny. Terrey Hills 21 30
Hot. Becoming sunny. Richmond 22 39
Becoming sunny. Parramatta 21 35
Becoming sunny. Campbelltown 21 37
Becoming windy. Becoming sunny. Bondi 23 28

Saturday 1 February

Summary
Min 23
Max 34
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Very hot and sunny. Winds north to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h tending west to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming northeasterly 25 to 40 km/h in the afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Sunday 2 February

Summary
Min 27
Max 33
Showers. Possible storm.
Possible rainfall: 4 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Hot. Sunny morning. High (80%) chance of showers developing in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h shifting cooler south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Monday 3 February

Summary
Min 22
Max 29
Shower or two. Possible storm.
Possible rainfall: 4 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the afternoon.

Tuesday 4 February

Summary
Min 19
Max 23
Cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower, most likely during the morning. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds southerly 15 to 25 km/h turning southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning.

Wednesday 5 February

Summary
Min 19
Max 25
Cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Thursday 6 February

Summary
Min 21
Max 26
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.


B1 rider checks in

Posted on January 30th, 2020 in Surf Reports.


Warm, sultry, small swell day. B1 reporter took this shot of Long Reef heading south on the way to the city. Little waves and long waits.

Promise of more swell on the way. Note to self: Work from home tomorrow.


Really small at Dee Why this morning

Posted on January 30th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Not sure that you could actually catch anything at Dee Why this morning. The point’s definitely out of the question and I couldn’t see anyone along the beach from the RealSurf crowsnest. I’d say it was ankle to maybe, possibly, knee-thigh high. Curiously the MHL buoy was detecting 1.4 m of SSE at 14 seconds as of 0400. Tide was just coming off the low when I checked conditions for the first time today. It’s now coming into the high at 1230. Water is 23C and clean according to Beachwatch.
I’m seeing a few hopeful signs in the forecasts for an improvement to our prospects in a few days, so I’m keen to see what his Goatness has to say in his Thursday week-ahead predictions…
Go well with your Thursday!

 

Very tiny line near No Mans

Point utterly flat, Kiddies only barely “bigger”

 
Weather Situation
A high pressure system near New Zealand extends a ridge to the north, while a weak low pressure trough lies on the northern New South Wales coast. This trough is expected to decay by the late morning, while a new high moves across Bass Strait to the Tasman Sea, where it is expected to strengthen as a cold front approaches from the west. This pattern will bring increasing northeasterly winds to most coastal areas during today and Friday. The front is expected to bring a southerly change to the far south coast late Saturday, continuing through central parts during Sunday and northern waters on Monday.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Friday 31 January
Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres around midday.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Saturday 1 February
Winds
North to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.


Grey, gloomy and tiny for Wednesday morning

Posted on January 29th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

8 to 10 knots of southerly and heavy overcast skies as Wednesday got started along the beaches. I couldn’t see anyone in the water at Dee Why or No Mans. Not surprising really when you look at the pictures. Surface conditions were actually relatively smooth, but there is no energy in the ocean for us to play with. The latest MHL data shows only a 6 second, 1.5 m SSE wind bump out at sea. Not that it’s very relevant, but tide is coming into a high just before noon. The southerly should swing east later.

A quick scan of the swell prediction models suggests that we can write off surfing in Sydney for another couple of days, but maybe come late Friday we’ll get a bump into the fun range that could persist into the early part of Saturday. The models show sub-10 sec periods though, so I’m only very cautiously hopeful. I’ll be keen to see what the Goat thinks tomorrow…

Have a good Wednesday!

No Mans no dice at 0700

Spitty and heavily overcast on a tiny morning

Weather Situation
A high pressure system near New Zealand extends a ridge towards the northern New South Wales coast, while a weakening low pressure trough slowly moves north along the northern coast. The next high is expected to move from the Bight to the Tasman Sea later today where it will strengthen towards the end of the week as a cold front approaches from the west. Northeasterly winds will freshen across New South Waters ahead of this cold front, before a southerly change is expected on Sunday.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots turning east to southeasterly below 10 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy.
Thursday 30 January
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and reaching up to 20 knots inshore.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres inshore during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Friday 31 January
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeast to southeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.


Teeny tiny Tuesday

Posted on January 28th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

It’s back to school time and that means lighter weekday crowds for those of us lucky enough to have the flexibility to take advantage of opportunities as they arise. But they’re not arising today at Dee Why. Skies were mostly clear as the day got started and wind was barely registering from the NNE. Sadly, as the pictures reveal, there’s nothing much in the way of surf. I couldn’t see anyone in the water, but I’d guess it’s ankle to knee high or so. That fits with the 0500 data from the MHL Sydney waverider buoy which was showing 6-second, 1.4 metre wind bump from the ENE out at sea. Tide is coming into a high at 1120 and Beachwatch’s latest says the water’s clean and a toasty 23C.

Weather outlook is for a high of 30 along the coast and the possibility of a thunderstorm this afternoon. Swell’s not likely to change across the day, so the SE change later will be kind of irrelevant to surf prospects. Both the Wavewatch and ECM models are showing the short period, gutless stuff persisting through to Friday. Thereafter, Wavewatch predicts an influx of longer period, but very small SE bump. If that prediction turns out to be right, we may possibly see some more energetic knee high sets in the mix – but the models are also showing a typical NE wind pattern, so that bump may be lost in the jumble of short period wind waves. Beyond that, the long range forecasts aren’t currently showing any major change to the summery short period and tiny surf prospects.

Go well with your Tuesday one and all!

 

 

Pretty quiet at 0700

Yep, tiny to flat up the beach.

No takers at the point nor att the beach

Weather Situation
A high pressure system near New Zealand extends a ridge towards the northern New South Wales coast, while a low pressure trough lies off the central parts of the coast. This trough looks set to move towards the north today and tomorrow, gradually weakening as the next high moves from the Bight to the Tasman Sea during the second half of the week.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots shifting southerly during the morning then tending southeasterly in the afternoon. Winds increasing to 15 to 25 knots in the late afternoon and evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening.
Wednesday 29 January
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots turning east to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy.
Thursday 30 January
Winds
North to northwesterly below 10 knots, tending north to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the morning.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Grey, smoky and tiny again this morning

Posted on January 27th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Looks to be even smaller than yesterday, and that was pretty sad. The smoke is back, a baleful reminder that all is not well. Swell has faded out to ankle to knee high, if that, at Dee Why beach. The MHL buoy report from 0600 showed wind bump from the NE around to the SSE, but the main energy was coming from 138-180° at 6 seconds with heights at sea of 1.7m. Wind is SSW 6-10kts as of 0830, but should go around to the SE later. Next tide is a high at 1045. Water is clean and 23C according to the good folk at Beachwatch. The BoM says we’ll see a high of around 27C and that there’s a slight chance of precipitation.

Outlook according to both ECM and Wavewatch is for conditions to remain small to near flat. Wavewatch is predicting some very small, long period stuff toward the end of the week, but from my reading of the numbers, we’ll be lucky to see much of anything above the waist high mark. Hope to be proven wrong!

Have a good Monday holiday one and all!

 

Smaller than yesterday…

Weather Situation
A high pressure system near New Zealand extends a ridge towards the northern New South Wales coast, while a low pressure trough is off the central parts of the coast. This trough looks set to linger near the coast for a few days, gradually weakening as the next high moves from the Bight to the Tasman Sea during the second half of the week.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
South to southwesterly 20 to 25 knots inshore, tending south to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the day. Winds north to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots offshore.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm early this morning.
Tuesday 28 January
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots shifting southerly during the morning then tending southeasterly in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Wednesday 29 January
Winds
South to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots tending east to southeasterly below 10 knots during the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning.


Saturday surf report

Posted on January 25th, 2020 in At large.

Perfect day for the beach!  Might get a little shower but you’re going to get wet anyway.

BoM forecast is max around 25, light winds turning onshore..which is happening in Sydney around now.

Waves are in the 1-2 metre range, mostly around 1 or a bit more, and occasionally bigger from Eastish / East South East.

Wave quality in’t great but there’s enough movement in the water for keen people to have a bit of fun.

Water temp’s around 24.

Have a good one.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on January 23rd, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 23 January 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Bit warmish today, with a bit of dust in the air. The wind is expected to turn south early tomorrow morning to cool down the temp for you.

My mates and I have looked at the surf all week, gone in for swims because of the crowd (it’s school hols and those who had gone south came home and stayed home) and the waves (not to my liking anytime I saw them), but at the beach I’ve heard other people, all young people, raving about the great surf they had here or there, whenever. Anyway, good luck to them; glad they’re having fun.

The coming week is also likely to suit the keen, enthusiastic, young, fit etc, who’ll be best able to make the most of continuing Noreast windswell.  Factors determining how good the surf will be each day this week will be tides, banks (I haven’t seen a good one for ages) and wind.  And of course it’ll be bigger at southern ends of beaches (but windy at times).

Surf outlook

Friday: down a bit from today, say around the middle of the 1-2 metre range North East

Saturday: somewhere around 1, 1+ metres North East

Sunday: smaller East North East

Monday: around 1 metre East North East

Tuesday: ditto North East

Wednesday: up a little from the South, say 1-1+ metres East South East

Thursday: around 1 metre East South East.

At least someone’s having fun!

TG

Up in the Air

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Jan 23 05:30:00 2020

 

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jan 23 00:00:00 2020 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.375,151.216,8,i:pressure,m:cIJaknc

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 23, 24 at the moment

image

Tides

Click to access tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Summary
Dust haze. Possible shower/storm later.
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Areas of dust haze. Slight (30%) chance of a shower, most likely later this evening. The chance of a thunderstorm with gusty winds. Winds northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h tending northerly 15 to 25 km/h in the late evening.

A POOR Air Quality Forecast alert is issued by the Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (DPIE) due to elevated particle levels in Sydney for Thursday 23 January 2020.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Friday 24 January

Summary
Min 24
Max 28
Early haze. Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Areas of dust haze in the early morning. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and early afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h tending southerly 15 to 25 km/h before dawn then tending east to southeasterly in the early afternoon.

A POOR Air Quality Forecast alert is issued by the Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (DPIE) due to elevated particle levels in Sydney for Friday 24 January 2020.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Early haze. Shower or two. Sydney 24 28
Early haze. Showers. Penrith 24 33
Early haze. Shower or two. Liverpool 23 31
Early haze. Shower or two. Terrey Hills 22 27
Early haze. Showers. Richmond 24 32
Early haze. Shower or two. Parramatta 22 30
Early haze. Shower or two. Campbelltown 22 31
Early haze. Shower or two. Bondi 23 25

Saturday 25 January

Summary
Min 22
Max 27
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers in the morning and early afternoon. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon then becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Sunday 26 January

Summary
Min 22
Max 30
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.2 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Monday 27 January

Summary
Min 23
Max 29
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Tuesday 28 January

Summary
Min 23
Max 30
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers, most likely later in the day. Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 29 January

Summary
Min 22
Max 27
Cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Thursday 30 January

Summary
Min 22
Max 28
Cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day