Archive for January 2020

B1 report – go surfin’

Posted on January 20th, 2020 in At large.

Today is the day!     Waves everywhere as a nice 3-4’ swell pushes in.  Your correspondent had a fun surf at a north corner with a few others at first light.    Things are on the improve as the tide drops.   A day for surfing.

Grabbed this shot of Collaroy from the B1 bus  as we sped through.


Little bumps for Dee Why

Posted on January 20th, 2020 in Surf Reports.

Hello Friends,

Sitting in the lovely Bidgee Motor Inn in the tidy little town of Hay and looking at surf cams in Sydney is slightly unreal. It looks as though there are soft litttle short period windswell bumps in the knee to waist high range this morning. Wind was light NW as of 0830, but as the forecast below indicates, you’ll be seeing heaps of NE before long.

Back on the road to Adelaide, so catch you tomorrow.

On the road to Hay last night, spotted this downburst wind outflow from a thunderstorm. That brownish stuff is the dust kicked up by the descending cold air from high inside the storm. It splashes off the ground, kicking up dust

Weather Situation
A trough continues to remain along the coast today with the expectation for a low pressure system to develop over southeast Australia and track southeast. A trough associated with this low is expected to bring southerly change to the south coast on Tuesday and central parts of the coast on Wednesday. Another trough is forecast to bring a southerly change to southern parts later on Thursday.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northeasterly below 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the morning then tending northerly in the late evening. Winds reaching up to 30 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly 2 metres, tending northeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon, then decreasing to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe.
Tuesday 21 January
Winds
West to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds turning north to northeasterly in the early afternoon then tending northeast to southeasterly in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing below 1 metre around midday.
Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Weather
Sunny.
Wednesday 22 January
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Weather
Mostly sunny.


Cloudy skies and little tiny waves

Posted on January 19th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Nice to wake up to a morning that doesn’t smell of smoke. Skies were cloudy as Sunday got started, but the wind was only 4-7 kts from the SW and Dee Why was seeing the odd knee to maybe waist high bump from a 9 second, 1.4 metre SE wind swell. Tide was running out to the low at 1050 and water quality is likely to be polluted from run-off from the last few days of rain. We can expect the odd shower again today and tomorrow, but after that it looks as though we’ll be back to sunny conditions.
The models show a little uptick in wave energy for the next 24 hours and then a gradual weakening trend for surf prospects as the week plays out. Your correspondent will be sending postcards from well west of Dee Why for the next 10 days.
Have a great Sunday everyone!

 

No takers at the point, but little stuff at Kiddies

A few Sunday morning surfers getting knee to thigh high bumps at 0720

 
Weather Situation
A trough lies along the coast and will remain in place for the next couple of days. Within this trough small low pressure circulations may develop during the weekend, locally enhancing rainfall and winds along parts of the coast. On Monday, a larger scale low pressure system is forecast to develop over southeast Australia and track southeast. A trough associated with this low is expected to bring southerly change to the south coast on Tuesday and central parts of the coast on Wednesday.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending northwest to northeasterly in the late evening. Winds reaching up to 20 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore around midday.
1st Swell
East to northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres around midday.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Monday 20 January
Winds
Westerly around 10 knots tending northerly 15 to 20 knots offshore before winds tending west to northwesterly before sunrise. Winds turning northeasterly 15 to 20 knots by midday. Winds reaching up to 25 knots offshore in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Tuesday 21 January
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots tending northwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the morning then turning north to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the day.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 2 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Weather
Sunny.


Rainy morning

Posted on January 18th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

There were bands of showers queued up off the coast this morning and the rain was coming down steadily when I checked the beach for my usual Saturday morning radio report on ABC Sydney 702. Visibility was okay but all that run-off had Beachwatch calling most Sydney beaches likely to be affected by pollution from the stormwater runoff of the last couple of days. Wind was SSW 10-20 kts, so while not straight onshore, it was kind of slow but waist to chest at Dee Why. There were a few on the point, where it seemed to be quite a wait between sets. The beach was more consistent and bigger, but of course on the dropping tide, the shutdowns were plentiful. Around at the Collaroy Narrabeen stretch, the beach was empty and waves looked overall to be smaller than at Dee Why. The exception was at north Collaroy where a couple of folks were playing around in chest high stuff on a little energy focal point. Surface conditions were smooth too.

Outlook-wise I’m not seeing much to encourage a surfer until maybe Monday morning when the wind and swell combo could possibly come together for the morning session. Beyond that, Tuesday looks a possibility but the rest of the week is shaping to be tiny while I’m over in SA and away from the beach.

Have a good one!


Weather Situation
A broad trough lies along the coast and will remain in place for the next few days. Within this trough small low pressure circulations may develop during the weekend, locally enhancing rainfall and winds along parts of the coast. On Monday, a larger scale low pressure system is forecast to develop over southeast Australia, and track south. A trough associated with this low is expected to bring southerly change along the far south coast on Tuesday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots inshore in the late morning and early afternoon. Winds turning east to northeasterly in the late afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre by early evening.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre by early evening.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Sunday 19 January
Winds
East to northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the morning. Winds reaching up to 20 knots offshore during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre, tending easterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres around midday.
2nd Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Monday 20 January
Winds
Northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots during the morning then becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Easterly 1.5 to 2 metres, tending northeasterly 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.


Nothing doing on Friday morning at Dee Why

Posted on January 17th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Had breakfast at Dee Why this morning and grabbed a couple of snaps afterwards. As you can see, it was gloomy, grey, windblown and very small. Happily the rain is tumbling down at the moment. No real swell to speak of. It’s a little over a metre out at sea, but only 7 seconds apart and pretty much SSE, so no prospect of an immediate improvement.

Check the Goat’s latest forecast for thoughts on the weekend and beyond

 

 

Weather Situation
A high pressure system centred near New Zealand extends a ridge towards northeast New South Wales. A trough is expected to stall about the Hunter or Mid North Coast today, where it will linger during Saturday before weakening. Another trough is likely to affect southern and central parts of the coast during Monday and Tuesday.

Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots turning east to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Northeasterly around 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly below 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Saturday 18 January
Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
East to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching 20 to 30 knots offshore during the day.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Sunday 19 January
Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots during the day.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
1st Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre, tending easterly 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on January 16th, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 16 January 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Fires, smoke, bluebottles and now storms on the way…Can’t complain you live dull lives with all that variety. Southerly’s on the way with oomph.

There were waves through the week with size, quality and attractiveness varying from beach to beach depending on conditions. Many of the good ones were suitable for the keen, fit, able and young, but for this the right boards are necessary, and the use of custom longboard surfboards which you can get online could be great for this exact purpose.

After all the Bushfire and Poor Air Quality Alerts last week, I hope you’re not alerted out. The alert for this week from the BoM  is possible Thunderstorms almost every day. Just remember to exit areas out in the open – eg the Beach  and the Ocean  – if there rumblings and flashes on the way, unless you’re an idiot and want to play Lightning Strike roulette

The outlook for the coming week is for more size at times with the quality and attractiveness being suitable at different locations. It’ll be interesting to see how it pans out.

Friday: coming up from South East somewhere in the 2  1-2 metre range with some punch at times, but with S wind…Try those protected corners and see what it looks like

Saturday: ditto with North East and South East swells

Sunday: dittoish East South East

Monday: same same East North East

Tuesday: down a little East North East

Wednesday: similar Eastish

Thursday: around 1 metre or so North East.

Have fun. Stay safe.

TG

Up in the Air

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Jan 16 08:30:00 2020

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jan 16 06:00:00 2020 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-34.066,150.816,5,i:pressure

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 22 23

image

 

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Showers. Possible storm.
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers and possible thunderstorms, most likely during the evening. Heavy rain possible with thunderstorms. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 10:00 am to 4:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

Friday 17 January

Summary
Min 20
Max 24
Showers. Possible storm.
Possible rainfall: 10 to 25 mm
Chance of any rain: 95% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm, most likely in the morning. Winds southerly 20 to 30 km/h.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Showers. Possible storm. Sydney 20 24
Showers. Possible storm. Penrith 19 25
Showers. Possible storm. Liverpool 19 25
Showers. Possible storm. Terrey Hills 18 23
Showers. Possible storm. Richmond 19 25
Showers. Possible storm. Parramatta 18 24
Showers. Possible storm. Campbelltown 18 25
Showers. Possible storm. Bondi 20 22

Saturday 18 January

Summary
Min 20
Max 25
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 20 to 50 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds southerly 15 to 20 km/h tending southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Sunday 19 January

Summary
Min 20
Max 27
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Monday 20 January

Summary
Min 21
Max 28
Shower or two. Possible storm.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Tuesday 21 January

Summary
Min 21
Max 30
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

The chance of a thunderstorm during the morning. Sunny day. Light winds becoming westerly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 22 January

Summary
Min 21
Max 29
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Thursday 23 January

Summary
Min 22
Max 33
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny day. Slight (20%) chance of a shower, most likely later in the day. The chance of a thunderstorm later in the day. Light winds becoming west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning

 


Gloomy and tiny but you could get wet

Posted on January 16th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Back to the gloomy weather, but this time it’s not just smoke because there’s a 80% chance of precipitation. Yesterday’s little waves are littler again this morning. It looks to be in the knee to waist high range on the bigger sets at the point. I didn’t see anything much happening in the beachies, but it’s not looking any bigger than the point. Wind was light SW early but the Bureau tells us it’ll come around to the north later. The longer period energy that was still showing up now and again yesterday morning has disappeared. We’re back to 6.5 second, 1.5 metre wind bump from the SE.To the extent that it matters, tide will be coming in across the morning hours as it heads to a 1.7m high at 1330. Water’s about 20C.
The Goat should have a week-ahead outlook later today, so I’ll just note I’m hoping on your behalf that he’ll have some hopeful news…

 

Set wave at the point as of 0715

Bomb set in the waist high range just up from Kiddies

 
Weather Situation
A high pressure system centred near New Zealand extends a ridge towards northeast New South Wales. A trough will bring a southerly change to southern and central parts of the coast today before stalling about the Mid North Coast, where it is expected to linger for a day or two while gradually weakening. Another trough is likely early in the new week.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds
Northerly 10 to 15 knots, reaching 20 knots offshore, turning northeasterly in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, tending northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Friday 17 January
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots, reaching 25 knots inshore.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers. A thunderstorm likely.
Saturday 18 January
Winds
South to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots tending southeast to northeasterly about 10 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the afternoon or evening.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
2nd Swell
East to northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.


Smooth seas and waist plus on sets this morning

Posted on January 15th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

High cloud with good visibility and a few waves too this morning at Dee Why. Swell’s faded overnight and it looked to be less consistent than yesterday as well as smaller. I’m calling it waist to chest as of 0800 at Dee Why. The MHL buoy was seeing 1.5 metres at 12 seconds from 156-160° (SSE) as of 0500. Tide is currently coming into a 1.83m high at 1240. Weather should be mostly sunny as we head to a high of 27 along the coast and the wind should gradually come up from the NE, but not go too hard.

With luck the little waves of this morning should hang in there across the day but then from tomorrow the models are point at shorter periods with not much change in wave height. So today could be the plan because right now I’m not seeing much of interest until early next week. At that point, it’ll be of academic interest to me as I’ll be visiting fam in SA, far from the beach.

Have yourself a great Wednesday everyone.

Clean little lines for the point crew at 0745

Set at No Mans 0745, and yep it shutdown a second later.

Little bump at Kiddies 0745

 

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea will direct north to northeasterly winds over New South Wales waters by the end of today. A trough associated with a Southern Ocean cold front is expected to bring a southerly change to southern waters on Thursday and central parts on Friday before stalling about the Mid North Coast.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
West to southwesterly below 10 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Thursday 16 January
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, tending northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.
Friday 17 January
Winds
Northwest to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending south to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots during the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.


Waves around, quality not so much

Posted on January 14th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Was hopeful for the wave prospects this morning. We definitely have swell. The MHL buoy 0600 data showed 2 metres at 9 seconds from 152-158° and wind was just stirring from the south when I looked at it between 0800 and 0845.
First stop was Long Reef where it seems the action on the bombies yesterday has faded so much that no one was in the water. The crew was down the beach near the lagoon entrance complex of banks. The pictures below make it look far more interesting than it really was. The reality is that very few were makeable at all and there didn’t seem to be any obvious peaks. Basically it was a crap shoot. If you happened to be in the right spot you could jag a couple of turns before having to straighten out. But mostly it looked like lots of work for minimal payoff. That said, there were head high faces on the bigger ones and some of the sections looked juicy.

The first turn was all there was to this wave at the lugga.

Old guys rule. The rider got another turn out of that one before it claimed him. Longy lugga, 0825

Hopped back in the car to go have a closer look at the Dee Why end of the beach… Although you can’t really tell it from the pics, the point was very crowded (20+) and surprisingly lumpy and sectiony. Catchable ones were infrequent for the numbers in the water, and most of them were little better than a couple turns finishing with a fading shoulder. As for the beach break, well it had similar size (head high on bigger faces) but it was shutdown land. Essentially unmakeable on 99% of them. Again, very disappointing.

So the Tuesday takeaway: you gotta be keen!

A tiny fraction of the crew

Rider didn’t make this section at the point

Moment of fun on another brief encounter at DY point

Clouds, sea and surfer, Dee Why

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea extends a ridge along the New South Wales coast while a trough over the northern Tasman Sea. This pattern is directing north to northeasterly winds over southern New South Wales waters and south to southeasterly winds over northern waters. As the trough weakens and the high shifts further east, winds throughout will tend north to northeasterly by the end of Wednesday. A trough associated with a Southern Ocean cold front is expected to bring a southerly change to southern waters on Thursday.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
Northeast to southeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre by early evening.
2nd Swell
Easterly 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Wednesday 15 January
Winds
South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
1st Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Thursday 16 January
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Swell
East to southeasterly around 1 metre, tending east to northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.
Please be aware
Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum waves can be twice the forecast height.
Nearby Coastal Waters

.


High tide at Long Reef

Posted on January 13th, 2020 in Long Reef.

Hello Friends,

Chucked the board in the car, grabbed the camera and went for a closer look at conditions at Long Reef just as the tide was peaking. Quite a number of people out the back on second bombie and an unusual number clustered at shitrock as well. As expected, the beach was just shutting down. There were a few hardy types out having a go in the head plus conditions though. Unless they were unloading in the shorey, the waves were looking ponderous and tide affected.

Again, as expected, it was very lully. In 20 minutes or so, I saw maybe three waves caught at the bombies and four or five from the pole north to shitrock.

Got one turn off as it shutdown on this shorey just south of the lifeguard hut

Best moment of the best wave I saw at the outside bombies.

Long Reef inside bombie

A couple hours earlier at 0900 it was 2 metres at 15 seconds from 158°