The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted by: on January 9th, 2020

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 9 January 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

How good was it to breathe clean air today if you were on the coast. You would have been lucky to find your way to the beach yesterday through the thick smoke and mist that hung around all day… which wouldn’t have been healthy for surfing… if the surf was good… which it wasn’t. The air was better today because the wind was pretty much onshore for East to South East from way out.. Air quality was good, surf quality was bad. So many things to keep track of these days…

DPI’s Index in the weather forecast (below) lately seems to regularly say Poor Air Quality covering all of Sydney which is a big place, while the BoM says eg Smoke haze mainly in the west…

TG has his own Air Quality Index for the beach…

See smoke, smell smoke = Bad

Don’t see smoke, don’t smell smoke = Good.

Surf outlook, and quality, continues to be dominated by frequent wind changes, so take advantage of conditions when you can

Friday: smaller than today but somewhere in the 1-2 metre range East South East

Saturday: Up at places open to dead South as a result of a southerly change expected to come through after midnight Fri night, but windy and not much likely to get into protected corners

Sunday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range at places open to dead South, not much in protected corners

Monday: going down, ditto

Tuesday: in the 1-2 metre range South East, with onshoreish wind

Wednesday: bit smaller but.. form the East, with North East wind early on, before it changes South

Thursday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range North East

On the positive side hopefully the frequent wind changes will enable more backburning to help get some more fires under control. And in other good news, the Bureau seems to think (see below) we’ve turned the corner with the first Tropical Cyclone of the season crossing land, and while there could be some more hot days in the next few months, extreme conditions look like easing according to BoM.

TG.

Up in the Air

Lotsa clouds around

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Jan  9 05:30:00 2020

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jan  9 00:00:00 2020 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-32.447,152.475,6,i:pressure

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 22

image

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the evening.

A POOR Air Quality Forecast alert issued by the Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (DPIE) due to forecast elevated particle levels in Sydney for Thursday.

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Friday 10 January

Summary
Min 21
Max 30
Partly cloudy. Smoke haze.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Hot. Partly cloudy. Smoke haze, mainly in the west. Light winds becoming northeast to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h in the morning, increasing to 30 to 45 km/h near the coast in the afternoon.

A POOR Air Quality Forecast alert issued by the Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (DPIE) due to forecast elevated ozone levels in Sydney for Friday.

Fire Danger – Very High

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Partly cloudy. Smoke haze. Sydney 21 30
Hot. Smoke haze. Penrith 20 42
Hot. Becoming windy. Liverpool 19 39
Partly cloudy. Smoke haze. Terrey Hills 19 30
Hot. Smoke haze. Richmond 19 42
Partly cloudy. Smoke haze. Parramatta 18 37
Hot. Becoming windy. Campbelltown 18 38
Partly cloudy. Windy. Bondi 21 27

Saturday 11 January

Summary
Min 19
Max 23
Shower or two. Wind easing.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers in the morning and early afternoon. Possible smoke haze. A gusty southerly change soon after midnight 40 to 60 km/h soon after midnight, tending southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Sunday 12 January

Summary
Min 19
Max 23
Cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Smoke haze, mainly in the west. Winds southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light during the morning then becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Monday 13 January

Summary
Min 19
Max 25
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Light winds.

Tuesday 14 January

Summary
Min 19
Max 27
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 15 January

Summary
Min 22
Max 29
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.2 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Thursday 16 January

Summary
Min 22
Max 29
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely later in the day. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h shifting south to southeasterly later

BoM Climate outlook extract

Climate influences

  • The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which contributed to the dry and warm conditions across much of Australia during winter-spring 2019, has ended.
  • Likewise, a recent persistent negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has also weakened, with forecasts of SAM now fluctuating in the neutral range.
  • With these two major drying influences easing, the likelihood of drier than average conditions has weakened. Outlooks broadly indicate equal chances of wetter or drier conditions, with no widespread extreme conditions forecast. However, it is seasonally the hottest and drier time of the year for southern Australia.
  • While tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to stay warmer than average, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to remain neutral into 2020 and have a limited influence on Australian climate.
  • Abnormally warm sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Pacific Ocean and to the west of Australia may also be contributing to some changes in weather patterns over the continent, while warm and dry soils over the continent—a legacy of Australia’s warmest and driest year on record in 2019—are keeping temperatures warmer than average.
  • In addition to the natural drivers such as ENSO and the IOD, Australian climate patterns are being influenced by the long-term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures.

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