The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted by: on February 13th, 2020

Update

The eye is currently roughly 600 ks east of us.

 

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 13 February 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

What interesting weather we’ve been having eh… and more interesting weather is coming our way…

All eyes are on TC, now Ex TC Uesi, which is set to continue its southward journey as an intense Low down the Tasman Sea….Latest Forecast Track map is below. It’s expected to be out off Sydney on Friday, but for Sydney the Bureau is forecasting light winds and rain here. However , we will see its swells. In fact if you looked at the ocean this arvo you’re already seeing the start of those.  It’s not expected to stick around here very long, which is fine, but as it keeps moving south then south east to pay a visit to NZ’s South Island by Sunday, we’ll still have waves from it all week. The size and direction of the surf we get will change as it moves south.

Now before you get too excited>>>

a) the Bureau has Large Surf warnings up for some days, as the waves will have a bit of oomph, so they will only be for the experienced, and

b) I wouldn’t recommend going in the ocean at the moment anyway.

Our much needed rain has given everything a great flush out, with the result that the ocean water is putrid.  As lagoon creeks and rivers along the coast including the Hawkesbury pour out, and runoff from stormwater drains send rubbish out, the ocean has turned to a foul looking, deep, dark chocolate colour…

Which is sort of Nature’s Warning to Stay Away.

Just for the academic heck of it… watch the changing swell direction as it hits our coast…

Friday: somewhere in the 1-5 – 2 metre range East North East, with ommph, and coming up into the 2-3 metre range East North East/East

Saturday: somewhere in the 3-4 metre range East, with oomph

Sunday: easing back a little in the 1.5-2 metre range South East, as the Low visits NZ, but sends back prolonged waves

Monday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range East South East

Tuesday: coming up again, 1.5-2 metres South East and with long range oomph

Wednesday: similar but sort of easing a bit South East

Thursday: up again, somewhere in the 2-2+ metres range South East

It’d be pretty to watch if it weren’t for that water colour, floating debris, and who knows what else in the water.

TG

Up in the Air

BoM says “Ex-tropical cyclone Uesi expected to cause destructive winds at Lord Howe Island this evening.” (Thurs 13/2) Latest Forecast Track map

and http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

 

Latest Colour Mean Sea-Level Pressure Analysis and Infrared Greyscale Satellite

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8

Down in the Sea

Water temp

image

Tides

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Shower or two.
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, becoming less likely later this evening. Winds easterly 15 to 20 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Friday 14 February

Summary
Min 21
Max 26
Possible morning shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers in the morning. Light winds becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the late evening.

Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Possible morning shower. Sydney 21 26
Possible morning shower. Penrith 20 27
Possible morning shower. Liverpool 20 27
Possible morning shower. Terrey Hills 19 24
Possible morning shower. Richmond 20 28
Possible morning shower. Parramatta 19 26
Possible morning shower. Campbelltown 19 26
Possible morning shower. Bondi 22 24

Saturday 15 February

Summary
Min 19
Max 27
Late shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny morning. Medium (60%) chance of showers in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Light winds.

Large and powerful surf conditions in the morning are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Sunday 16 February

Summary
Min 20
Max 25
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 9:20 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Monday 17 February

Summary
Min 20
Max 25
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds.

Tuesday 18 February

Summary
Min 21
Max 26
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds.

Wednesday 19 February

Summary
Min 20
Max 23
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.

Thursday 20 February

Summary
Min 18
Max 23
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming east to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

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