The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted by: on May 21st, 2020

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 21 May 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney

After spending a great deal of time analysing all sorts of stuff, it looks like it’s gunna be

Cold, and

Wet, and

Windy, and

Big…

for several days.

Unless you like that kind of thing… and who doesn’t (!??!),,, then you may want to plan alternative activities.  Heck you’re all getting to be experts at spending time indoors, and even though you can go out now, you still might want to practice indoors some more eh?

On the upside, East Coast Lows are notoriously difficult for the experts (computers) to predict.. Forecasts are only as good as the data that’s inputting now… so who knows… it mightn’t last that long, mightn’t be that bad… a bit like anyone trying to do economic forecasts right now.  I guess they’re both a case of prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I’m a “Hoper” 🙂 … I saw blue sky this arvo when rain was forecast…. and I caught a couple of fish for dinner  🙂

Current surf outlook if the Low does what is currently expected… (but don’t hold me to it)… is for conditions to be more suitable for the average punter by around Wednesday, Thursday>>>

Friday: coming up into the 1, 2-3 metre range at dead South spots, but with wind.. might get something in protected corners maybe

Saturday: somewhere in the 3-4 metre range dead South with wind.. maybe protected corners

Sunday: Bigger, 4- 4+ metres dead South and ditto

Monday: easing slightly to around 4 metres and dittoes

Tuesday: in the 3-4 metre range and South East

Wednesday: in the 1-2 metre range South East

Thursday: around 1 metre or so dead South

In the meantime~~~ Stay safe, Stay well, and Keep a smile on that Dial 🙂

TG

Up in the Air

MSLP Analysis for Thu May 21 00:00:00 2020 AUTC

A Low looks like developing off the coast and is currently expected to hang around for a bit.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu May 21 06:30:00 2020

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-34.066,150.816,5

 Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 21, which is ok unless there’s wind to give you a chill.  The satellite shows that it’s a degree or two warmer outside. I suspect that’s where the whales are, that I haven’t seen this week, They’re a bit like me…they like warm water for their holidays.

image

Tides

Click to access tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Rain at times.
Chance of any rain: 100% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of rain and the chance of a thunderstorm. Winds southerly 15 to 20 km/h turning west to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 11:00 am to 12:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Friday 22 May

Summary
Min 9
Max 16
Rain at times. Windy.
Possible rainfall: 20 to 60 mm
Chance of any rain: 95% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain, most likely in the morning. Heavy falls possible. Winds west to southwesterly 25 to 40 km/h becoming southwesterly 35 to 55 km/h in the morning.

Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Rain at times. Windy. Sydney 9 16
Rain at times. Windy. Penrith 8 15
Rain at times. Windy. Liverpool 9 15
Rain at times. Windy. Terrey Hills 8 13
Rain at times. Windy. Richmond 7 15
Rain at times. Windy. Parramatta 8 15
Rain at times. Windy. Campbelltown 7 15
Rain at times. Windy. Bondi 11 15

Saturday 23 May

Summary
Min 11
Max 18
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Winds southwesterly 25 to 40 km/h.

Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Sunday 24 May

Summary
Min 12
Max 19
Showers. Windy.
Possible rainfall: 6 to 15 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, mainly along the coastal fringe. Winds south to southwesterly 25 to 40 km/h.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Monday 25 May

Summary
Min 13
Max 19
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers, mainly along the coastal fringe. Winds south to southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h during the evening.

Tuesday 26 May

Summary
Min 12
Max 19
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 5 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Winds southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h turning southerly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 27 May

Summary
Min 11
Max 21
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds.

Thursday 28 May

Summary
Min 10
Max 20
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds.

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