Archive for July 2020

Very tiny again but later could be interesting

Posted on July 13th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

The lull before the storms this morning. Just about flat at Dee Why but the low is winding up out at sea, so by tomorrow things should look very different. Right now swell at sea is almost straight south at a metre with a 13-second period. Lots of big clear patches in the sky, but by this afternoon we should be getting the first of the rain. Tomorrow is shaping to be rainy all day with SW winds and ramping swell. This morning sees the ECM model predicting SS

E 2-3 m tomorrow, 3-4 m Wednesday and then fading a touch to 3-3.5 m on Thursday. Wavewatch (which generally seems to be a bit closer to the mark) is saying 4-5 m SSE @13s Weds, 5 dropping to 3 Thr. Could be interesting…

Have a great day everyone.

 

Misty morning city

Lone rider finds a bump

Weather Situation
A trough of low pressure off the coast is deepening into a low pressure system, with its main centre forming over the Tasman Sea and the secondary centre developing off the southern coast. The low pressure system is forecast to linger in the region through to the mid-week, bringing vigorous southerly winds and large waves to coastal waters as the secondary centre heads north on Tuesday. From Thursday the low is expected to weaken and move away to the east, as a ridge of high pressure develops over southeast Australia.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming southwesterly 15 to 20 knots in the morning, reaching up to 25 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres in the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Tuesday 14 July
Gale Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southwesterly 20 to 30 knots turning southerly 30 to 40 knots in the morning.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, increasing to 4 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres, tending southeasterly 4 to 5 metres around midday.
Weather
Cloudy. Near 100% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Wednesday 15 July
Winds
Southerly 25 to 35 knots.
Seas
2.5 to 4 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly 4 to 6 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.


Sunday tiny bumps

Posted on July 12th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

After a mostly gloomy Saturday, Sunday starts off with mostly clear skies along the Sydney coast. There’s an 80% chance of showers by late this afternoon and then we’re in for plenty of rain right through to next weekend. As you can see from the pics, it wasn’t exactly booming at Dee Why this morning. There were a few folk on long craft at the point jagging ankle to knee high rock-runners on the inside. I didn’t see anyone actually catch a wave at the beach, but I doubt it’d be substantially different from the point. A quick look at some of the cams, suggests not unsurprisingly, that the same situation applies everywhere. Take the long board to your fave south spot and you might get lucky.
Water quality seems to be good everywhere too, and weirdly (not in a good way, really) the temp has bumped up to 19C.
The swell models show the big energy arriving Tuesday morning. The early stuff looks likely to be in the 3-4 m, 10 sec range from the SSE Tuesday, and then building to what could be a peak around the 5-5.5 m mark with 12 second periods. Of course it’ll be rainy and windy, so surf options will be extremely limited.
Go well and enjoy the sunshine this morning!

Cruising on a tiny bump around 0900

Small to micro

Looking pretty quiet along the beach


 
Weather Situation
A cold front is forecast to cross the coast today before deepening into a low off the southern coast tonight. This low will deepen during Monday and linger in the region through Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing vigorous winds and large waves. During the second half of the week the low will weaken and move away to the east, to be replaced by a ridge of high pressure.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Winds
Variable below 10 knots becoming east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Monday 13 July
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots shifting westerly during the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. Near 100% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Tuesday 14 July
Winds
Westerly 10 to 15 knots turning southerly 25 to 35 knots during the morning.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, increasing to 2.5 to 4 metres during the morning.
Swell
South to southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending east to southeasterly 3 to 5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. Near 100% chance of rain.


Posted on July 11th, 2020 in At large.

Hello Friends,

At daybreak it was raining lightly but steadily along the beaches. Wind was out of the west at 4 kts and the offshore buoys were seeing a metre of 10-second swell from the SE-SSE. Tide was close to the 0645 low. It’ll be back to high at 1255. The forecast tells us to expect the showers to clear as the morning goes along and for us to get to a high of 21C. The sea temp is sitting on 18C.

Pretty much as expected, waves were in the ankle to knee high range for the most part. Northy was showing little bumps, but from there south to Collaroy was flat. Over at Dee Why to Longy, the best focus appeared to be at Kiddies but if you had a long board and a keen attitude, there were ultra-tiny glassy bumps offering weak slides…

Tucking in to a tiny barrel at Dee Why 0700

Not much energy at the Pole

Cute little empty near the lugga

South Narra puny looking

Knee high at Northy in the early morning gloom

Outlook is for the surf to stay in the marginal zone into Monday. Right now the predictions are showing swell kicking into gear overnight Monday and by Tuesday it should start to build rapidly into the overhead to well overhead range.  ECM is saying 3-4m on Tuesday and 4-5m Wednesday, while Wavewatch shows 2-4m Tuesday and 5+ Wednesday. Both models show 20-40kt southerly wind smashing it from day break Tuesday onward. Oh, and it should be pelting with rain too…

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea will give way to a cold front and low pressure trough moving up the New South Wales coast over the weekend, before a low pressure system deepens off the coast at the start of next week. This low is expected to linger off the coast through the first half of next week with potential for heavy rain, strong winds and large waves along parts of the coast.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds
Northwesterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore.

Sunday 12 July

Winds
Northwesterly 10 to 15 knots becoming west to southwesterly below 10 knots in the late morning then turning east to northeasterly in the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Monday 13 July

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming westerly 15 to 20 knots during the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres .
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Back to tiny conditions for Friday morning

Posted on July 10th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Did you miss it yesterday? Too bad. There are little tiny waves around this morning at Dee Why – think knee to maybe waist – but if you have to pass, I don’t think you’ll be foregoing too much excitement. It was still somewhat misty when I had my first look around 0830, but wind was light to barely there, so surface conditions were super clean. Out at sea the buoys were seeing 1-1.3 metres at 10-11 seconds from 130-154° (basically south).

Tide was low at 0605 and is currently running in to the 1.32m high at 1210. Weather outlook is for a possible light shower as we head to a high of 18C. Water is clean and 18C according to the fine folk at Beachwatch.

Will the prospective east coast low be making a difference any time soon? Why not jump over the Goat’s fresh new forecast for a proper dose of surf enlightenment!

Go well with your day!

Out for a SUP session at Dee Why

Hopefuls hanging around at the point on the offchance…

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea will give way to a cold front and low pressure trough moving up the New South Wales coast over the weekend, before a low pressure system deepens off the coast at the start of next week. This low is expected to linger off the coast through the first half of next week with potential for heavy rain, strong winds and large waves along parts of the coast.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots offshore in the late morning. Winds tending west to northwesterly in the early afternoon then tending north to northwesterly in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.

Saturday 11 July

Winds
Northerly 10 to 15 knots turning northwesterly during the day. Winds reaching up to 20 knots offshore in the late morning and early afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
Swell
South to southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm from the late morning.

Sunday 12 July

Winds
Northwesterly 10 to 15 knots turning west to southwesterly below 10 knots during the morning then becoming east to northeasterly during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to around 1 metre offshore.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on July 9th, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 9 July 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Fine now, but a Low’s on its way from Dubbyuh Eh?.. Currently forecast to sit off our coast from late Monday >>>

Until then there could be a few noice little waves around for the weekend… then it’s a case of watch this space. Low’s are precocious and often just do what they want, so this is based on the crystal ball as it currently looks … foggyness notwithstanding…

I love it = a new word and a big word all messing up the sentence together at once.

So with the foregoing in mind…

Friday: around 1 metre or less South East

Saturday: ditto East

Sunday: ditto ditto

Monday: around 1-1+ metres East

Tuesday: Now here’s where it gets interesting.. From where TG currently sits. or stands it looks like>>>: around 3 – 3+ metres East South East.  If the Low changes course or whatever, it won’t be like that at all 🙂  But if it is, it’s gunna be windy and rainy so you probably won’t care, being inside.

Wednesday: around the 3-4 metre range East South East, with ditto proviso

Thursday: similar.

 

Up in the Air

Fine now, but a Low’s on its way from Dubbyuh Eh?.. Currently forecast to sit off our coast from late Monday >>>

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jul  9 06:00:00 2020 AUTC

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.850/151.220?-34.283,150.924,8

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 18.  TG is Cool. But that’s what he calls: Gettin’ cool.

Haven’t seen any whales for a week. They’re smart … frolicking way out wide where the current is warmer…

image

Tides https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2020-2021.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Friday 10 July

Summary
Min 10
Max 18
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Areas of morning fog possible in the west. Medium (40%) chance of showers, most likely from the late morning. Light winds becoming northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon then becoming light in the late afternoon.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Possible shower. Sydney 10 18
Shower or two. Penrith 6 18
Cloudy. Liverpool 7 18
Shower or two. Terrey Hills 9 16
Shower or two. Richmond 5 18
Possible shower. Parramatta 7 18
Cloudy. Campbelltown 5 18
Possible shower. Bondi 12 17

Saturday 11 July

Summary
Min 11
Max 20
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the late morning and afternoon. Light winds becoming north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the middle of the day.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Sunday 12 July

Summary
Min 9
Max 19
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Light winds.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Monday 13 July

Summary
Min 10
Max 17
Showers or rain.
Possible rainfall: 25 to 45 mm
Chance of any rain: 100% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of showers, possibly tending to rain. Heavy falls possible. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning westerly 15 to 25 km/h during the afternoon.

Tuesday 14 July

Summary
Min 11
Max 18
Showers or rain. Windy.
Possible rainfall: 25 to 70 mm
Chance of any rain: 100% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of showers, possibly tending to rain. Heavy falls possible. Winds westerly 20 to 30 km/h turning south to southwesterly 25 to 40 km/h during the morning.

Wednesday 15 July

Summary
Min 12
Max 19
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 8 to 20 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. Winds southerly 25 to 40 km/h.

Thursday 16 July

Summary
Min 13
Max 19
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h.


Nice looking waves on Thursday morning

Posted on July 9th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Clean surface conditions for the early and some fun looking waist to chest plus sets to be had at the point and along the beach. Wind early was out of the WNW at 4-5 kts. It should go around to the north to NE latter. The Bureau says the swell energy will fade today, but as the sun came up, the buoys were showing 1.4-.1.6 m of 9-10 sec swell from S-SSE. Tide is currently coming in to the high at 1125. We should see a partly cloudy day with a high of 18C – which should be a degree warmer than the water temp.

It’s Thursday, so we can expect the Goat to roll out a weekend and week ahead outlook for us to consider. I’m keen to see what he thinks of next week’s prospects because the long range forecasts are currently predicting a potentially intense east coast low…

Get in if you can folks!

Another shutdown coming up for the beach and a little set at the point

Activity at the point

Ok size, but lots of shutdowns along the beach

Foggy start for Pittwater

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the western Tasman Sea will drift east during the next few days, bringing a gradual shift from southerly to northerly winds over New South Wales coastal waters. A broad trough and associated low pressure system will cross the state during Friday and over the weekend, with southerly winds developing again from Sunday. The low is expected linger about the western Tasman Sea for the first half of the new week, with the potential to bring strong winds and large waves to parts of the NSW coast.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds
North to northeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Friday 10 July
Winds
North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.
Saturday 11 July
Winds
North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
South to southeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm.


Wednesday waves on tap

Posted on July 8th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

A few showers lingering around the place this morning as we head to a mostly cloudy day and a high of 18C. Down at the beach a light westerly was brushing back the bump on the incoming 2 metre 10-second period SSE swell. Tide was coming in to the 1040 1.35m high and according to the latest from Beachwatch, water was 17C.
Waves at Dee Why looked to be in the waist to chest high range on sets, with the odd bigger one up the beach where exposure to the swell is better. Quality is okay looking but not exceptional as it is a bit lumpy and wind textured. The prospect of east to SE all day means that it’s unlikely to get any cleaner than it is right now.
A shout out to all our fellow Australians in Victoria going back into lockdown. Thank you for doing what has to be done for your safety – as well as ours.

Point set

Fun looking peak

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the western Tasman Sea will drift east during the next few days, bringing a gradual shift from southerly to northerly winds over New South Wales coastal waters. The next significant trough looks set to arrive at the end of the week.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Thursday 9 July
Winds
East to northeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Friday 10 July
Winds
North to northwesterly about 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
South to southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 50% chance of showers.


Posted on July 7th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Swell’s faded back since yesterday at Dee Why. There are still little (occasionally) knee plus sets dribbling in at the south end with some waist plusses on offer up the beach. Surface conditions were smooth under partly sunny skies as of 0830. Some of the other more south exposed spots should be bigger, though not by a huge amount. Wind is out of the west before 0900 however the Bureau tells us it’ll go more SW and ramp up into the 15-20 kt range – which is fine for Dee Why and other south corners, but not so much for some of the best south magnets. Oceanwatch says the ocean temp has cogged down to 17C and next tide is a moderate 1.36 m high at 1000. Swell at sea was 1.7 m at 10 seconds apart from 164° – so pretty close to dead south.
The swell models continue to show roughly the current wave heights for south spots through the rest of the week. So if you dial in a spot, stick with it.
Have a great Tuesday one and all.

Catching tinies along the rocks at 0815

Another tiny shutdown at north Kiddies

No Mans knee to waist

Weather Situation
A strong high pressure system is moving slowly across southeast Australia, and is forecast to remain the dominant synoptic feature in the region for the next few days. A trough will move along the New South Wales coast later today and early Wednesday before weakening on Thursday as the high reaches the Tasman Sea. The next significant trough looks set to arrive during the weekend.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 20 knots turning south to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers.
Wednesday 8 July
Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots becoming east to southeasterly below 10 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Thursday 9 July
Winds
North to northeasterly around 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.


Waves are back for Monday morning

Posted on July 6th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Swell popped up yesterday evening and this morning sees the numbers lining up with what the models predicted, that is 2.3-3 metres at 11-12 seconds from the SSE (152°). There were folk in the water from the point to as far up the beach toward the Pole as I can see from the crows nest. Wave faces look to be in the chest to head and a bit range and for school holidays, it doesn’t look super crowded.

Weather is sunny and heading to a high of 18C – just like the water. Tide is high at 0910 and back to low at 1440. The swell should stick around at about the current intensity, with maybe a slight decline by dark.

Have a top old Monday everyone and don’t be slacking off on the handwashing, distance maintaining, cough hiding and not face touching. Virtually all of us are just as vulnerable to the virus as the day it arrived and there are no cures, nor any vaccine.

Lines at the point

Point set 0815

Freight train shutdowns on the beach

Crew in the water

Weather Situation
A strong high pressure system is expected to drift slowly across the state from the west, and looks set to become the dominant feature in the region through the coming week. The next significant weather system looks to pass over the state by the weekend.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots during the day.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Tuesday 7 July
Winds
South to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots tending south to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.
Wednesday 8 July
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots becoming easterly below 10 knots during the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, decreasing below 0.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Surfing off the schedule Saturday morning

Posted on July 4th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Yeah, naw.

Very little energy in the ocean this morning – not just in Sydney, but along the entire coast of NSW. However, the Bureau tells to expect the wind to pick up as the day goes along and as it does so, for the swell to start gradually coming up. From the look of the swell models, I’d say it’s not very likely you’ll be getting in the water today.
By tomorrow the situation should be more interesting. It’s not shaping to be big or anything, but prospects seem reasonable for the odd chest high sets at south magnets by around midday.
Swell energy should stick around into Monday and maybe dial back a touch into the knee to waist plus range across much of the coming week.
Have a good one!

Overcast and gloomy and flat early Saturday morning

Weather Situation
A front is forecast to brush the south coast during Saturday reinforcing a south to southwesterly airstream along the New South Wales coast. Behind this, a strong high is expected to drift slowly across from the west, and looks set to become the dominant feature in the region through the coming week.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
West to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots turning south to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots in the morning, becoming west to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers.
Sunday 5 July
Winds
Westerly 20 to 25 knots turning southwesterly 15 to 25 knots early in the morning.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Monday 6 July
Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.