Archive for July 2020

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on July 23rd, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 23 July 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Nice day today,,, and tomorrow, but after that…you might be looking for something else to do  mostly indoors.

A Low is expected to develop off the Far North Coast of NSW late Sunday, then move quickly down the NSW coast on Monday. So swell direction and size will depend on where it ends up, but it doesn’t look like it’ll be pleasant. As it looks at the moment>>>

Friday: around 1 metre ish South/ South East

Saturday: around 1 metre or so South/East

Sunday:  1 ish metre South East

Monday: coming up into the 2-3 metre range at this stage South East

Tuesday: 3 ish metres South/South East, could have oomph

Wednesday: around 2 -3 ish metres East, ditto

Thursday: somewhere in the 2-3 metre range East.

Stay safe, stay aware, don’t share anything around that you wouldn’t want shared with you, if it’s already been shared with you…Sharing ain’t cool just at the moment.  Have Fun!! Focus on what you can do.. not what you can’t.

TG

Up in the Air

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Jul 23 06:30:00 2020

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jul 23 06:00:00 2020 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.850/151.220?-34.283,150.924,8

 

Down in the Sea

Water temp is a round 18…

image

Tides https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2020-2021.pdf

Here’s something for the nerds 🙂  Starts from 1992.

Click to access sydney_StormHistoryTable.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast issued at 4:20 pm EST on Thursday 23 July 2020.

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Clear.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly clear. Light winds.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Friday 24 July

Summary
Min 8
Max 18
Possible fog then mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Morning fog. Mostly sunny afternoon. Light winds.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Possible fog then mostly sunny. Sydney 8 18
Morning fog then mostly sunny. Penrith 2 20
Morning fog then mostly sunny. Liverpool 3 19
Early fog then mostly sunny. Terrey Hills 7 17
Morning fog then mostly sunny. Richmond 1 19
Morning fog then mostly sunny. Parramatta 4 19
Morning fog then mostly sunny. Campbelltown 2 19
Possible fog then mostly sunny. Bondi 11 18

Saturday 25 July

Summary
Min 10
Max 18
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 8 to 15 mm
Chance of any rain: 100% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Areas of fog in the early morning. Very high (near 100%) chance of showers, most likely from the late morning. The chance of a thunderstorm from the late morning. Light winds.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Sunday 26 July

Summary
Min 12
Max 18
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 15 to 35 mm
Chance of any rain: 100% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning then tending south to southwesterly during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 11:40 am to 12:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Monday 27 July

Summary
Min 12
Max 18
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 6 to 15 mm
Chance of any rain: 95% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. Winds southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h.

Tuesday 28 July

Summary
Min 11
Max 17
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. Winds southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h.

Wednesday 29 July

Summary
Min 9
Max 19
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Slight (20%) chance of a shower, most likely during the morning. Mostly sunny day. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h.

Thursday 30 July

Summary
Min 9
Max 18
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds


Quiet out there

Posted on July 23rd, 2020 in Surf Reports.

Hello Friends,

Ocean has simmered down overnight. Places that were seeing the odd shoulder high wave face yesterday are looking at waist high this morning – at best. A light westerly was making surface conditions smooth as the day got started. Swell out at sea was 1.3 metres at 9 seconds from the SSE (158°). Tide is coming into a 1.4m high at 1015.
The Goat will be along later today with his thoughts on the weekend and beyond. I’m keen to see what he thinks about next week as this morning’s models are singing from the same song sheet as the Bureau – ie, it’s looking big and southerly.
Stay safe, maintain distance, wash hands, stop touching the face and mask up when you go into common spaces (it may be voluntary in NSW now, but you’d have to think there’s a good chance we’ll follow Vicco at some point).

Mals and fishes best for tiny Manly

Queensie rider

No one at the point

Knee to waist at Curly

Bodyboarder scores Kiddies

Weather Situation
A high pressure system centred over the Bight extends a ridge across New South Wales, and will remain the dominant feature in the region for the next day or two as it drifts slowly east. A low pressure trough is expected to develop off the northern coast later Thursday and Friday, before deepening into a low circulation on the weekend. Depending on the position of this low, some coastal areas may experience strong winds and large surf from Sunday onwards.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds
West to southwesterly below 10 knots, becoming northeasterly in the evening.
Seas
Below 0.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Friday 24 July
Winds
North to northwesterly about 10 knots, becoming north to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre by early evening.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Saturday 25 July
Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. Near 100% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.


Small but not flat

Posted on July 22nd, 2020 in Surf Reports.

Hello Friends,

Swell has perked overnight and south exposures were seeing chest high sets around 0800. Looks like waves to be had if you’re free…

More at the beach than the point

Heaps of weed near the lagoon entrance, Long Reef

Kiddies producing

Nice inside section, Longy

Longy bomby high tide fatness

Near the lugga

Folks messing about at Whiterock and Makaha

Very quiet at Collaroy

Out at sea the buoys were seeing 2 metres at 10 seconds from 166° (south). First tide of the day is a high at 0930. The low’s at 1500. It should be a partly cloudy day with a high of 18C along the coast. Ocean temp is sitting on 18C.

Outlook is according to Wavewatch and the ECM models is for the swell to peak today (might come up a touch more) and then fade away tomorrow to be very small through the weekend. The long range models are still showing a bump into the 3 metre range with strong wind from the south quarters from late Monday through Wednesday… as always, we shall see.

Go well and mask up when you’re inside!

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Bight extends a ridge across New South Wales, while a trough moves away to the east. This high pressure system will remain the dominant feature in the region for the coming days as it gradually drifts east to reach the Tasman Sea by Friday.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending west to southwesterly in the morning then becoming variable below 10 knots in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Thursday 23 July
Winds
West to southwesterly about 10 knots, becoming variable below 10 knots in the evening.
Seas
Below 0.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Friday 24 July
Winds
North to northwesterly about 10 knots tending north to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.


Tiny Tuesday

Posted on July 21st, 2020 in At large.

Hello Friends,

The swell may be a bit bigger compared to yesterday, but it was flat as a tack at Collaroy-Narrabeen at 0730 and only marginally bigger around at the better exposed Dee Why to Longy stretch. There were a couple of hopefuls near the lagoon entrance (which is shut following the swell), but it looked pretty junky, weak and sad. Down the beach at Kiddies it looks as though you could get the odd ankle to knee high bump. With luck it’ll come up a bit more during the day and maybe your favourite south magnet will have something to mess around in. I’d say you’d be doing well to find something in the waist high range.

Outlook is for tomorrow to be down a bit from whatever peak we get to swell-wise today. The ECM model is showing the remainder of the work week being small to near flat, while the Wavewatch 3 model is, as usual, a little more hopeful for tomorrow and Thursday morning, but then also predicts tiny after that.  Wavewatch’s long range outlook currently is showing another burst of south energy on Monday-Tuesday. If they’re right, it’ll be very windy from the southerly quarters… so not getting too excited just yet.

For what it’s worth, swell at sea was around 2 metres at 10 seconds from 155° (SSE) and wind was out of the west at 9-10 kts with an air temp of 10C as of 0710. We should have a mostly sunny day with a high of 17C. First tide of the day is a high at 0840.

Have a great day and mask up!

Up and riding at Kiddies 0745

Not really surfable looking at the Lugga

No takers for sideshore Longy

Eroded beachfront and no more waves for now

Micro Collaroy

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Bight extends a ridge across New South Wales, while a trough moves away to the east. This high pressure system will remain the dominant feature in the region for the coming days as it gradually drifts east to reach the Tasman Sea by Friday.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
South to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore during the morning
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Swell
Southerly 2.5 to 3 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Wednesday 22 July
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable below 10 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 2 metres around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Thursday 23 July
Winds
West to northwesterly below 10 knots becoming easterly during the day.
Seas
Below 0.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Tiny time

Posted on July 20th, 2020 in Surf Reports.

Swell has just about faded to flat. Curly was ankle to knee high every now and then while Dee Why was knee to maybe waist on bomb sets.

Thundering combat sweeps into North Curly
Gorgeous but too weak for this surfer to catch at the point
Heaps of weed ripped up by days of pounding swell
A few seconds of wall at Kiddies on a bomb set

Late afternoon beach check

Posted on July 19th, 2020 in At large.

Went for a late afternoon bikeride and took the camera along. This morning’s swell has faded, but there were still a few shoulder to head high plus sets in the mix. Looked at Surfrider Gardens to Narrabeen stretch first and found there were still a reasonable number of people in the water, but the sets were less frequent. Still, they looked to be worth waiting for.

Fun size sets still on tap at dusk at Narrabeen

Little cover at Narraberen

Checked Long Reef next and while there were plenty of folk in the water, it was looking smaller and less consistent than Narrabeen.

Looking fun near the lugga…

Wandered down to the Dee Why end as the last rays of sun were doing their thing spotlight style on the waves at the south end. It was a bigger and more consistent than up the beach and, there seems to be something of a bank just north of the club. Saw some fattish but fun looking lefts come through.

Bright section at the point

That’s you in the spotlight…


Sandon Point…….

Posted on July 19th, 2020 in Surf Reports.

Day trip south to the Illawarra. Sandon Point showing some form…..

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Sent from my iPhone


Swell dropping but still having its moments

Posted on July 19th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

The first sunny start in a few days and we’re still seeing some solid sets as the swell fades back to more typical conditions. Sets at Dee Why looked to be in the head plus range on the bombs, but mostly it was more chest to head. Out at sea the MHL buoy was detecting 2.2 metres at 11 seconds from the SSE. Tide was high at 0710 and will be back to high at 1330 as we head to a high of 20C on what promises to be a mostly sunny day. Yesterday’s Beachwatch obs say the water temp is on 17C.
The ECM model says we’ll be back to a metre of 9-second ESE tomorrow, before coming back up a touch for Tues-Wednesday. Wavewatch concurs about tomorrow, but is currently more hopeful for some slightly more juicy conditions Tue-Wed (around the 2.5m mark from the south).
Go well with your Sunday one and all!

 

Very busy at the point 0745

This A frame left ran for another 100m…

Bomb sets every now and then to keep things interesting

Weather Situation
A ridge of high pressure over eastern New South Wales will decay today as a trough and associated cold front approach from the west. Winds in southern and central areas are forecast to increase ahead of this system, which will deliver a vigorous southwesterly change early Monday. Following this, a new high is expected to drift across from the west, and should remain the dominant feature in the region for the remainder of the coming week.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Winds
North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending west to northwesterly during the day, reaching 20 knots offshore.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Monday 20 July
Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Westerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching 30 knots offshore, tending southwesterly in the middle of the day.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
South to southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Sunny.
Tuesday 21 July
Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Thumping surfrider gardens

Posted on July 18th, 2020 in Surf Reports.

Bit of a mob scene in the water but consistent heavy barrels. Just started shooting. Here are the first two waves…


Still big for the early

Posted on July 18th, 2020 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Still 3-4 metres and 12-13 seconds apart from the SE at daybreak. Tide hit high at 0625 high and will be back to low at noon. Wind early was out of the NW at 5-6 kts. Surface conditions were relatively smooth along the Narrabeen stretch and swell was focusing at several points. It looked to be in the 2x overhead range and the only people in the water at daybreak were a couple of tow teams near Surfrider Gardens. Around the corner along the Dee Why to Longy stretch, the only surfers I saw were at the point chasing what looked to be 1.5x overhead sets. Surface conditions weren’t as clean as Narrabeen, but it was definitely surfable if you were fit and keen.

I’m planning to get out with the camera later this morning, so I’ll post snaps if I get anything worth sharing.

Not a morning for beginners or even many intermediates. Maybe wait a day or so…

Tiny rider towing near Surfrider Gardens at daybreak

A bit too lumpy to attract any takers at Dee Why beach as of 0700

Solid sets at Dee Why

Tow-in

Weather Situation
A ridge of high pressure is developing over southeast Australia today, while a low over the northern Tasman Sea continues to bring a large swell to the New South Wales coast. Winds are forecast to increase on Sunday ahead of a cold front, which will deliver a vigorous southwesterly change early Monday. Behind this, a new high is expected to drift across from the west, and should remain the dominant feature in the region for the remainder of the week.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly 2 to 3 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers, mainly offshore.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Sunday 19 July
Winds
North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending west to northwesterly during the morning, reaching 20 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Monday 20 July
Winds
Westerly 15 to 20 knots turning west to southwesterly during the morning, becoming southwesterly in the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
1st Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 2 metres.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.