Archive for August 2020

Ultra micro Saturday

Posted on August 22nd, 2020 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Chilly, breezy, sunny and almost perfectly flat this morning. The only wave I saw ridden was the one shown below. So, if you were in exactly the right spot at exactly the right moment with exactly the right equipment… swell is about half a metre out at sea and wind is out of the NW at 16-22 kts. Ocean is 18C.
There’s really no hope of an improvement today, however tomorrow should see the swell coming up at spots that like a dead south swell. And then Monday it should really get going as it builds into the 3-4 metre range by the afternoon. Wind is set to stay cold and westerly to SW’ly right across the period.
Go well everybody and keep those masks handy.

A wave! Clean little peeler at Longy

Beautiful mouse surf at No Mans

Chilly morning, Long Reef

Hardy specimens wading in for a dip (air temp @ 10)

Narrabeen looked like a lake

Out for a paddle


Weather Situation
A complex low pressure system near Tasmania is directing a series of cold fronts and troughs across southeast Australia, bringing vigorous westerly winds to New South Wales waters. Conditions are expected to gradually ease later Sunday and Monday as the low moves away to the east and is replaced by a high pressure system. This high looks set to become the dominant features over the state during the coming week, promoting a return to lighter winds.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Westerly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.
Sunday 23 August
Gale Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Westerly 20 to 30 knots, reaching 35 knots offshore.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, reaching 4 metres offshore.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm from the late morning.
Monday 24 August
Winds
Westerly 20 to 30 knots turning southwesterly 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 to 2 metres during the evening.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, increasing to 3 to 4 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.


As a tack

Posted on August 21st, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Nothing happening at Dee Why this morning. Chilly and sunny with 7-10 kts of NNW breeze ahead of stronger westerlies later. Out at sea the buoy was seeing a metre of 10-sec bump from the SSE, but as the picture shows, any swell is being kept away from the coast by the non-stop offshores.

As for the outlook, well, may I refer you to the wise words of the Mighty Goat… it’s a nuanced but ultimately hopeful rumination on our prospects for the week ahead.

Stay safe, pack that mask and have a top old Friday!

Electro rider zipping across the surface of Lake Dee Why

Weather Situation
A cold front will move into western New South Wales this morning, associated with a complex low pressure system near Tasmania. This front will continue to the coast overnight, maintaining fresh to strong westerly winds over most coastal waters. During Saturday and Sunday the low is forecast to move across the south Tasman Sea, with winds over New South Wales shifting more southwesterly. Conditions should ease during Monday in the wake of this system, as a high pressure ridge develops over New South Wales.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Westerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching 30 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Saturday 22 August
Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Westerly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.
Sunday 23 August
Winds
Westerly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres offshore.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the late morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on August 20th, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 20 August 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Ahh The Westerly Winds of August …  Nature’s harbingers telling those of us who prefer warmer weather that Spring can’t be far away.

They can clear the air, blow dust up your nose, cause a bit of damage here and there, and sometimes after a few days of huffing and puffing across the Bight, bring up some swell from way down south>>>

Will they this time??>>

Well that depends on how a Low develops over the weekend, and where it locates itself… Apparently, it’s still deciding.

But based on what it’s current intentions look like to TG, the surf outlook could be something like this>>>

Friday: less than 1 metre or flat

Saturday: less than 1 metre or flat, or maybe starting to show less than 1 metre at places open to the South

Sunday: Depending on how the Low tracks, it could be starting to show 1 – 1+ metres at dead South places

Monday: Ditto the first bit, into the 1-2 metreish range dead South

Tuesday:  1-2 metre range, 2+ metres maybe South East, but with wind

Wednesday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range South East

Thursday: Ditto

Wouldn’t it be nice if it could just blow that silly virus out to sea with it…

In the meantime I’m really proud of you all washing your hands regularly, staying 1.5 m apart where possible, wearing masks where it’s not, and not whinging too much. Colds and flu stats are way down on what they would normally be, I see.

Keep up the good work!

TG

Up in the Air

MSLP Analysis for Thu Aug 20 00:00:00 2020 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Aug 20 04:30:00 2020

Winds… it’s windy

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-33.381,151.475,5

Down in the Sea

Water temp… The MHL Waverider buoy offshore from Long Reef is reading around 18… Reliable sources have told me that inshore it’s Cold (a technical term).

image

Tides..still going up and down

Click to access tide-tables-2020-2021.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 19
Windy. Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds westerly 30 to 45 km/h decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 10:30 am to 1:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Windy. Sunny. Sydney 19
Windy. Sunny. Penrith 18
Windy. Sunny. Liverpool 18
Windy. Sunny. Terrey Hills 17
Windy. Sunny. Richmond 18
Windy. Sunny. Parramatta 18
Windy. Sunny. Campbelltown 17
Windy. Sunny. Bondi 18

Friday 21 August

Summary
Min 9
Max 19
Partly cloudy. Windy.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a brief shower. Winds west to northwesterly 20 to 35 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 10:20 am to 1:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Saturday 22 August

Summary
Min 8
Max 16
Windy. Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower along the coastal fringe. Winds northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning westerly 25 to 40 km/h during the morning.

Sun protection recommended from 10:30 am to 1:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Sunday 23 August

Summary
Min 8
Max 17
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower along the coastal fringe. Winds westerly 25 to 40 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 11:00 am to 12:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Monday 24 August

Summary
Min 8
Max 17
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds west to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h turning south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Tuesday 25 August

Summary
Min 8
Max 18
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning south to southeasterly during the day.

Wednesday 26 August

Summary
Min 8
Max 17
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming southerly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


It’s a lake

Posted on August 20th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Sunny skies, light NNW winds, microscopic waves and a… gale warning. Yep, that’s right, the westerly should come up soon and it’ll be blowing 20-30 kts inshore. Out at sea, there was less than a metre of 5 second wind chop.

So, no prospect for a surf today in Sydney. And, unless the Goat’s spotted something I haven’t noticed, things don’t look hopeful for a wave until early next week…

Go well, and stay safe everyone!

Tiny peak at mid Curly

Weather Situation

A series of cold fronts will cross southeast Australia during the next few days, associated with a complex low pressure system near Tasmania. These fronts will maintain vigorous westerly winds over coastal waters through to the weekend. Conditions should ease during Sunday as the last of the fronts passes, and high pressure ridge develops over New South Wales.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Gale Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Westerly 20 to 30 knots, reaching up to 35 knots offshore in the morning.
Seas
2.5 to 4 metres, decreasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore by early evening.
Weather
Mostly sunny. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore.

Friday 21 August

Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Westerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore early in the morning and again in the late evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres offshore.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Saturday 22 August

Winds
Westerly 15 to 25 knots, increasing to 20 to 30 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 2 to 3 metres offshore.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Back to tiny and heaps of wind too

Posted on August 19th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

A beautiful morning as Wednesday gets started in Sydney. Wind was 6-7 kts from the NW as of 0800, but the Bureau tells us it’s going to ramp up into the 20-30 kts and there’s a 50% chance of precipitation. Swell at sea was 1.2 metres at 11 seconds from the east. That was enough to entice a small crowd to try their luck at the point, but it looks very small and the high tide at 0820 wasn’t helping either. If you’re really keen, take your floatiest surf toy as you’ll need something to handle the ankle to knee high bumps.

Outlook is energy levels to remain marginal to flat through the weekend, but if the models have it right, we could have fun size waves from Sunday midday on into the new week. For now though, beach walks are go.

Pack the mask and have a top old Wednesday!

A few folk on it at the point

Lines but no sign of a peak

Weather Situation

A weak high pressure system extends across the Coral Sea, while a complex low pressure system lies south of the continent. This low is forecast to bring a series of vigorous cold fronts across southeast Australia during the second half of the week, with windy conditions in most coastal areas.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Gale Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast

Winds
West to northwesterly 15 to 25 knots increasing to 20 to 30 knots in the afternoon. Winds reaching 35 knots offshore in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 4 metres offshore in the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm from late this morning.

Thursday 20 August

Gale Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Westerly 20 to 30 knots, reaching 35 knots offshore early in the morning.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 4 metres offshore.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore.

Friday 21 August

Winds
Westerly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Fat and full but…

Posted on August 18th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Catching up with a mate at Dee Why and watching some interesting sets arrive. Tide is peaking so they only stand up when waves reflecting off the beach hit the incoming lines. Maybe in a few hours…


Zippo at Dee Why

Posted on August 18th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

The Bureau says the swell should come up a little from the east by around lunchtime. But at 0700 when I checked the beach for the first time, Dee Why was looking too small to surf under high overcast skies. Looking at the cams, there are a few waves in the waist plus range around at Curly. Wind was out of the WNW 6-8 kts and out at sea the swell was 1.6 m from the SSE at 7-9 seconds. Tide was running into the high at 0735 and will be back to low at 1315 as we head to a high of 21. Water’s on 18C according to the fine folk at Beachwatch who also tell us that all beaches are clean this morning.

Checking the models, the ECM predicts a slight bump this afternoon but then sees it dropping back tomorrow as we head to a weak of flatness. Wavewatch 3 is considerably more hopeful, calling not only for the bump later today but sees small waves for the rest of the week – and then a bump into the interesting range late Saturday.

Go well with your day and pack that mask!

 

Folks in the water… for some reason

Lines but too small to surf at 0700

Weather Situation

A weak high pressure system extends across the Coral Sea, while a complex low pressure system lies south of the continent. This low is forecast to bring a series of vigorous cold fronts across southeast Australia during the second half of the week, with windy conditions in most coastal areas.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Winds
West to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending north to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and reaching 25 knots offshore in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Wednesday 19 August

Strong Wind Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast

Winds
West to northwesterly 15 to 25 knots, increasing to 20 to 30 knots during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres around midday.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore in the late morning.

Thursday 20 August

Winds
Westerly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning. Mostly sunny day.

Swell-less in Dee Why

Posted on August 17th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

It may be 2 m at 10 seconds from the south out at sea, but as far as Dee Why’s concerned, it’s just about flat. The only person I could see in the 18C water from the RealSurf crows nest was somebody having fun on their electric foil board. A beautiful morning in every other respect – cool, but not cold, sunny skies and 8-10 kts of WNW breeze grooming the tiny swell.

Outlook remains for conditions to be micro through tomorrow morning, but for a little energy to start pulsing up Tuesday afternoon as it head toward a peak into the 1.5+ metre range along the beaches on Wednesday.

Keep your mask handy and stay safe everyone!

Too small

Electric surfers can have fun

Weather Situation
A low pressure system centred to the east of Bass Strait will weaken today, while a high will move into New South Wales from the west. By Tuesday the high is expected to move north over the Coral Sea, as a new low pressure system develops south of the Bight. This system is forecast to bring a series of vigorous cold fronts across southeast Australia during the second half of the week, with windy conditions in most coastal areas.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
Westerly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots early in the morning.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Sunny.
Tuesday 18 August
Winds
Westerly 15 to 20 knots turning northwesterly during the morning. Winds reaching up to 25 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Wednesday 19 August
Winds
West to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots offshore. In the afternoon winds increasing to 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres offshore.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.


Micro morning but beautiful

Posted on August 16th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Easy report this morning: no waves at Dee Why for now.

There ya go. Coulda done that on Twitter. Anyway, the water’s up a tick to 18C according to Beachwatch. Swell at sea is dead south at a couple metres, but only 9 seconds apart, so not bending into the corners at all. There might be the odd soft little knee to waist high bump to be found on the bomb sets at the south magnets.

Outlook for the next couple of days is not too exciting but there currently appears to be some hope for a bump into the shoulder to head high range on Wednesday for spots tuned to east swell.

Have a great Sunday and pack the mask for those occasions you need to duck into a shop or other enclosed public space.

 

 

No waves, but otherwise perfect

Up the beach, nothing

Weather Situation

A low pressure system near to the east of Bass Strait has brought fresh to strong southwesterly winds to most areas. The low is expected to move away to the south during today and Monday, with winds easing in its wake. Meanwhile, a high is forecast to move from central Australia to the northern Tasman Sea, bringing a return to northwesterly over the coast by Tuesday. A series of cold fronts are forecast to bring increased wind during the second half of the coming week.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Winds
Westerly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots during the morning and again in the late evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm this evening.

Monday 17 August

Winds
West to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching 25 knots offshore at times. Winds knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Sunny.

Tuesday 18 August

Winds
West to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots, tending north to northwesterly in the evening reaching up to 20 knots offshore at times.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to around 1 metre offshore during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
2nd Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.

Posted on August 15th, 2020 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Knee to maybe waist high at spots picking up the last little scraps of swell. It has a longish period, so the lines are clean and well defined. Not a lot of people in the water for the early, but these cute little waves will no doubt attract more takers in due course.

Out at sea the waverider buoy was seeing just 0.8 metres of 12-second period SE swell. Tide was high at 0510 and will be back to low at 1045. There’s a medium chance of the odd shower, but at day break the skies were partly cloudy with lots of clear breaks. Wind was coming from the WNW at 9-10 kts as of 0645.

According to the models our surf prospects for the next few days are either blah (ECM) or might be pretty fun (Wavewatch). Going with the hopeful take, tomorrow could be a touch bigger than today and then Monday could be into the shoulder high range at south magnets. We shall see…

Go well with your Saturday and take the mask for those crowded indoor public spaces.

Weather Situation
A trough is moving into the Tasman Sea early this morning, with a low pressure system expected to develop within this trough off the southern New South Wales coast during this morning. This system will bring a fresh to strong southwesterly wind change along the coast today. The low is expected to move away to the southeast during Sunday and Monday, with southwesterly winds expected to ease from the north as the low moves away. Winds will then tend back to the northwest later Monday.

Grey Butcherbird (Cracticus torquatus) between songs to the new morning

Little right zippers into the beach at Long Reef

No Mans bomb set

Little and clean line at Surfrider Gardens

A little crew at Northy

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
Northwesterly 15 to 20 knots turning westerly 15 to 25 knots during the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres offshore.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm from late this morning.
Sunday 16 August
Winds
Westerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Monday 17 August
Winds
Westerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.