Archive for September 2020

Soft and small but not hopeless

Posted on September 21st, 2020 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Going to a high of 30 today. It’s sunny this morning, but there’s a 60% chance of showers later. There is some bump about thanks to 1.3 metres of 8-9 second NE wind swell. Best exposures should be seeing waist high sets with the odd chest plus bomb. Tides heading into a fairly swampy 1.75m high at 1105. Wind before 0730 was out of the north at around 10kts. That should build soon because the forecast says it’ll be 15-20 kts later. Water’s still on 18C.

Onshore but rideable at Manly before 0900

Manly

Weather Situation

A high pressure system lies over the Tasman Sea while a cold front is crossing the southern and western parts of the state today, bringing a brief southwesterly change to southern parts of the coast late this evening and continue to northern parts on Tuesday. Following this, winds will tend west to southwesterly.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Sunny day. 50% chance of showers this evening. The chance of a thunderstorm this evening.

Tuesday 22 September

Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 25 knots turning west to southwesterly during the morning. Winds may briefly tend northeasterly during the late afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 2 metres.
Weather
The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning. Sunny afternoon.

Wednesday 23 September

Winds
Westerly 15 to 20 knots. Winds may briefly tend north to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Clean and soft little lines

Posted on September 19th, 2020 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Smooth and glassy under foggy skies as Saturday got started. There were a fair number of folks scattered along the north Collaroy to Narrabeen stretch and similar numbers south of there at Dee Why to Longy. Sets at the best peaks were into the waist high range, but mostly it was knee high or smaller. Swell at sea is 1.3 metres at 9 seconds from the SE and our next tide is a swampy 1.7 m high at 0930. Wind will gradually pick up from the eastern quarters as it builds to 15-25 kts for the afternoon. Water is 18C.
Tomorrow’s swell looks like being smaller and more east as the cloudy conditions continue and the NE wind gets stronger across the daylight and early evening hours. Summer NE windswell spots will be the go. The current forecasts show the surf prospects fading across midweek before (hopefully) coming back up a little as we head into next weekend.

Take care and take the mask. The virus hasn’t gone away and everyone you love can catch it, so let’s keep each other safe.

Kiddies long waits for knee high sets

Longy

Touch better at the Long Reef end of the beach

North Collaroy pearler

Narrabeen stretch offering a few little peaks

Weather Situation
A high pressure system will strengthen over the central Tasman Sea today, and remain in the region through the weekend, with northerly winds strengthening as a low pressure trough approaches from the west.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Sunday 20 September
Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northeasterly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
East to northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of showers.
Monday 21 September

Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny day. The chance of a thunderstorm in the evening.


Grey skied Friday

Posted on September 18th, 2020 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Wind was out of the SSW at 6-8 kts by 0800, but it should turn NE later. Swell at sea was 1.7 metres at 7 seconds from the SE and water temp was 18C according to Beachwatch. Weather outlook is for a high of 19 and a possible light shower First tide of the day is a high at 0840.

Did the Manly run this morning, so herewith the story in pictures…

Exercise at Queenscliff

Thundering comber sweeps rider to shore at Queenscliff

South Curly

(Above) popping an air in tiny South Curly shorey

Dee Why point ridden

Weather Situation
Predominantly easterly winds are expected about the Waters today as a high pressure system moves near to the east of Bass Strait. This high will strengthen and move over the central Tasman Sea by Saturday, and remain in the region through the weekend, with northerly winds strengthening as a low pressure trough approaches from the west.

Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning east to northeasterly during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy.
Saturday 19 September
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres by early evening.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Sunday 20 September
Winds
Northeasterly 20 to 25 knots turning northerly 20 to 30 knots during the day.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on September 17th, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 17 September 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

There’s a Sydney Southerly Buster for you…

3pm 32 degrees and low humidity 28% light N wind,

5pm 18 degrees and 78% and strong S wind.

If you were lucky enough to get to the beach today… and were at the right place at the right tide, there were some nice cruisey waves around.

There are so many factors and variables to consider, it’s a wonder that those who pick it aren’t all rocket scientists!

So will all that wind that’s blowing around outside now do some good??? you ask.

For all its huffing and puffing, the general answer is:

Not really.

If you don’t set your expectations too high, you shouldn’t be disappointed, and

who knows, you might even be pleasantly surprised after a few days.. at the right tide.. and right places>>>

Friday: in the low end of the 1-2 metre range at places open to dead South… nothing much elsewhere

Saturday: ditto, a bit more South East

Sunday: ditto and North East

Monday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range North East

Tuesday: down a bit in the 1-2 metre range North East

Wednesday: around 1 metre or less North East

Thursday: Ditto

Have fun.

TG

Up in the Air

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Sep 17 06:30:00 2020

MSLP Analysis for Thu Sep 17 06:00:00 2020 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8

Down in the Sea

Water temp is now around 18

image

Tides

Click to access tide-tables-2020-2021.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Possible shower. Gusty change.
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers this evening. Winds southerly 25 to 40 km/h reaching 45 to 55 km/h along the coastal fringe.

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 2:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 6 [High]

Friday 18 September

Summary
Min 14
Max 20
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely in the late afternoon and evening. Winds southerly 15 to 25 km/h tending southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the late afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 2:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 6 [High]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Possible shower. Sydney 14 20
Shower or two. Penrith 12 20
Shower or two. Liverpool 13 20
Shower or two. Terrey Hills 14 19
Shower or two. Richmond 12 20
Shower or two. Parramatta 13 20
Shower or two. Campbelltown 10 20
Possible shower. Bondi 16 19

Saturday 19 September

Summary
Min 15
Max 22
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 2:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 6 [High]

Sunday 20 September

Summary
Min 15
Max 23
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning. Winds northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h turning northerly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 2:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 6 [High]

Monday 21 September

Summary
Min 15
Max 27
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the outer west in the morning. Light winds becoming northerly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.

Tuesday 22 September

Summary
Min 17
Max 25
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Slight (30%) chance of a shower, most likely during the morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Winds northerly 15 to 20 km/h.

Wednesday 23 September

Summary
Min 12
Max 24
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming westerly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning.

Thursday 24 September

Summary
Min 11
Max 22
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning.


Barely a bump

Posted on September 17th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Heading to a toasty 30C this morning as the wind comes up from the NW ahead of an afternoon southerly change. First tide of the day is a high at 0755 so waves were fat and tiny when I grabbed the snaps. There were a couple of folks at the point chasing knee high dribblers produced by a combo tiny 13-second period south swell and a 6 second east bump. So, fat, weak, and tiny at the best exposures and flat everywhere else. Wind was out of the NW at 4 kts as of 0800, but it should be chopping things up soon as it heads to 15-20 kts. Water’s clean and 18C.
The Goat will be along later with his weekly dollop of surf wisdom, so be sure to check back.
Go well one and all!

Faint bump up the beach at 0720

Folks in the water at the point

Weather Situation
A high pressure system is slowly drifting across the Tasman Sea, maintaining a ridge towards northern New South Wales. A low pressure trough is forecast to bring a gusty southerly change to southern and central parts of the coast today, before stalling and weakening over the north. Following this, a new high should strengthen over the Tasman Sea during Friday, and remain in the region through the weekend.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots shifting southerly 20 to 30 knots in the late afternoon and early evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres in the evening.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre around midday.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Friday 18 September
Winds
South to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots turning east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy.
Saturday 19 September
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Dee Why still waiting but longboardable lumps at magnets

Posted on September 16th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

High tide at 0715 and sunny skies combined with 1.3 metres of 14 second straight south bump saw nothing much happening at Dee Why as Wednesday kicked into gear. There were a few little lumps up the beach and the point looked as though it might have see a just catch-able thing every now and then. But we’re probably talking only knee high. Beachwatch shows the water as clean and 17C.

A quick glance at the models suggest to me that there might be a little uptick in energy into the waist plus range around Sunday at east swell magnets. The Goat will bring his wisdom to bear tomorrow afternoon, so I hope he’ll spot something I’m missing. For now though, conditions remain in the flat to near flat range at Dee Why.

Take care, take your mask and have a great Wednesday.

A couple of hopefuls at the point

Close to breaking but not happening

Weather Situation
A high pressure system is drifting across the Tasman Sea today, maintaining a ridge towards northern New South Wales. A low pressure trough is forecast to bring a gusty southerly change to southern and central parts of the coast during Thursday, before stalling and weakening over the north. Following this, a new high should strengthen over the Tasman Sea during Friday, and remain in the region through the weekend.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching 30 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Sunny.
Thursday 17 September
Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots, ahead of a gusty southerly change 20 to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre around midday.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Friday 18 September
Winds
South to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots tending east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the late afternoon and evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy.


Surf will come again maybe even this afternoon

Posted on September 15th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Not much energy showing at Dee Why this morning thanks to a near absence of swell along the stretch. The offshore buoy data was showing 1.3 metres of 9-second bump from the SSE but, with a high tide at 0630, it was not looking surfable at Dee Why. You might find something in the ankle to knee high range up toward Longy and at other similarly angled stretches along the Sydney coast. The marine forecast is calling for a little uptick in swell but the ENE wind isn’t making it look too appetizing, and the wind’s due to pick up later.
A quick look at the models makes me think maybe the next shot at waves will be around Sunday, when we might see some waist plusses at east spots…
Go well, maintain your distance and take the mask if you’re going into enclosed public spaces.

Nothing at the point

Weather Situation
A weak trough of low pressure lies on the northern New South Wales coast, and another on the south coast. Both troughs will decay today as a high pressure system moves across the state from the west, to be centred over the Tasman Sea by evening. The next trough is expected to reach southern and central waters during Thursday.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
Easterly below 10 knots tending northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the morning.
Seas
Below 0.5 metres, increasing to around 1 metre around midday.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Wednesday 16 September
Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Thursday 17 September
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.


Another sunny and tiny spring morning

Posted on September 14th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Swell at sea was a touch under a metre from 167° at 13-14 seconds, but nothing much was showing at Dee Why when I looked for the first time this morning. Tide was high at 0540 and is currently dropping to the low at 1115 as we head to a high of 21C but water’s dropped back a touch to 17C.
Waves look like staying tiny at least through tomorrow, but Wednesday may see a bump up if a predicted shortish period east to east southeast swell comes into the picture. Overall though there isn’t much energy potential showing in the forecasts for the next week.
Have yourself a top old Monday everyone, and take the mask for those times you can’t maintain distance.

Weather Situation
A low pressure trough is expected to bring a southerly change to central and northern waters today. Freshening north to northeast winds will then develop Wednesday as a high pressure system moves across from the west, and over the Tasman Sea. The next trough and associated southerly change is expected to reach southern and central waters Thursday afternoon or evening.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
Southwesterly 10 to 15 knots shifting east to southeasterly below 10 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.
Tuesday 15 September
Winds
Variable about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Wednesday 16 September
Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.


Sunday for not surfing at Dee Why

Posted on September 13th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Well, it’s pretty much dullsville on the surf front at Dee Why this morning. I couldn’t see anyone in the water, nor any reason for them to be there on a board. My exercise plan has switched to bike riding, what about yours?
Looks as though we’ll be waiting until Tuesday for our next shot at surf…
Go well!
Weather Situation
A strong high pressure system over the eastern Tasman Sea currently extends a ridge along the New South Wales coast, maintaining northeast to southeasterly winds in most areas. A weak trough looks set to bring a brief southerly change to the southern coast today, with another trough and southerly change to affect southern and central parts of the coast later Sunday or Monday.

no surf for you today at Dee Why


Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Monday 14 September
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming southerly 10 to 15 knots before dawn then turning east to southeasterly below 10 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.
Tuesday 15 September
Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots, tending east to northeasterly in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Tiny but definitely catchable

Posted on September 12th, 2020 in At large.

Hello Friends,

A beautiful morning along the beaches this morning. As the pictures show, east swell magnet spots were turning the 0.9 m 7-second wind bump into knee to waist high wave faces. Surface conditions were clean ahead of the northerly wind later today. Tide hits low at 0910, so at least there should be a little extra push across the late morning. The Bureau says the swell will turn south east later, but it’ll be fading. Should be sunny and 22C today. Water is on 18C and pretty much everywhere in Sydney is looking clean.
The ECM and Wavewatch swell models are telling us not to expect much of anything tomorrow. The work week outlook from both models is for no real surf prospects Mon-Tuesday, but there they diverge as the ECM sees Wednesday staying flat, while Wavewatch projects a slight uptick midweek at east magnets. So not great in the near term, but at least there’s something slightly hopeful around midweek.
Go well with your Saturday one and all. And take that mask for occasions when you can’t maintain distance.

Ankle crushers near the Pole

North Kiddies bomb

You could go fishing maybe

Longy freak peak set (don’t expect to see many of these!)

The Northy crew chasing knee high pearlers

Surfrider Gardens peak

Marquesas set


Weather Situation
A strong high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea currently extends a ridge along the New South Wales coast, maintaining northeast to southeasterly winds in most areas. A weak trough looks set to bring a brief southerly change to the southern coast today, with another trough and southerly change to affect southern and central parts of the coast later Sunday or Monday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending southeasterly below 1 metre during the afternoon.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Sunday 13 September
Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds tending west to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day then becoming southwest to northwesterly about 10 knots in the late afternoon or early evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Monday 14 September
Winds
Westerly winds about 10 knots turning south to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the morning, becoming east to southeasterly around 10 knots during the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.