Archive for October 2020

Misty Saturday morning

Posted on October 24th, 2020 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Gloomy drizzly skies and 10-15 kts of NNE wind from daybreak on Saturday morning. As the pictures show, there are little NE wind swell waves at the better exposures, but quality isn’t great. Out at sea it was 1.4 metres at 6-7 seconds from the NE, so not a lot of energy in the mix. Tide’s low at 0910 and it’ll be back to high at 1545. The Bureau says we can expect a humid high of 26 later with 5-15mm of showers.
Better get used to the showery weather, because the Bureau says we’re going to have it for the next week – plus it’s going to be southerly the whole time.
Surf will build under the southerly, so, water quality willing, there may be the odd wave option in the protected corners, but from here it does not look as though the quality will be terribly spectacular.
We’ll all be spending more time inside this week, so keep the masks handy – we don’t want to see anything like what folk are enduring in the northern hemisphere right now.
Go well!

Surfboat training at Dee Why

Not sure what these folks doing at the point

Surfrider Gardens

Gloomy little bumps at North Narrabeen

Weather Situation
A high pressure system near New Zealand is extending a ridge towards the Queensland coast, directing increasing northerly winds along most of the coast today. A cold front is forecast to bring a gusty southerly change to southern waters today before continuing to the north coast on Sunday. Following this, a new high is expected to strengthen near Tasmania and extend a ridge along the New South Wales coast, maintaining south to southeasterly winds along the coast for the remainder of the forecast period.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots, then a gusty southerly change 25 to 30 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres in the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe.
Sunday 25 October
Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
Winds
South to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots tending southeasterly in the afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre around midday.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers.
Monday 26 October
Winds
South to southeasterly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
2.5 to 3 metres.
1st Swell
Southeasterly 2.5 to 3 metres, tending southerly 2 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers.


Tiny but not flat at south exposures

Posted on October 23rd, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Really tiny at Dee Why this morning. Good if you have one of those electric foil things to play with or a standup board to take out and work on your core strength. But driving out of a nice turn or popping the top off something, well that’s not happening. When will it happen again? Well have a look at the Goat’s words of wisdom for all the insight you’ll need.

Take care, take the mask and have a great Friday!

Numbers: swell at sea as of 0640: 1 m @ 13 seconds from 138°. Wind: NNW 3-4 kts, Tides: Low at 0800, 1.6m high at 1430. Air 26, mostly sunny. Water 19C and clean.

Electro rider playing on the ankle high bumps at the point

Weather Situation
A high pressure system near New Zealand is extending a ridge towards the Queensland coast while a weak trough trough of low pressure lies along the southern coast of New South Wales. The high will direct increasing northerly winds along most of the coast during Friday and Saturday ahead a cold front, which looks set to bring a southerly change to southern waters late Saturday before continuing north on Sunday.

Forecast for Friday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 30 knots in the afternoon and evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres in the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Saturday 24 October
Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northeasterly 25 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 25 knots in the late morning, then a gusty southerly change 25 to 33 knots arriving at night. Winds may locally reach 35 knots on the change.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Sunday 25 October
Winds
South to southwesterly 25 to 30 knots tending southeasterly 20 to 30 knots during the afternoon and evening evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, increasing to 2.5 to 3 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on October 22nd, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 22 October 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Lovely weather right now.

Waves have been smallish and wind affected this week, but I did see some people taking advantage of the right tides occasionally.

The outlook for the weekend and week ahead is for some rain and showers according to BoM, which might dampen the enthusiasm of some, and there will be wind as well. But if you’re keen, you’re going to get wet anyway…

Friday: around 1 metre or less North East

Saturday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range at Southern wind blown ends of beaches, smaller in NE sheltered corners

Sunday: coming up with Southerly wind say around 2 – 2+ metres at places that get dead South swell

Monday: similar but more South East and still with Southerly wind to mess it up

Tuesday: in the 1-2 metre range East South East

Wednesday: dittoish

Thursday: coming up say 2 metres East South East

Stay well and look out for each other.

TG

Up in the Air

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Oct 22 05:30:00 2020

MSLP Analysis for Thu Oct 22 00:00:00 2020 AUTC

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8,m:cIJaknc

Down in the Sea

Water temp is appraently around 20 according to MHL…

image

Tides

Click to access tide-tables-2020-2021.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Mostly clear.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly clear. Slight (20%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the west. Winds easterly 15 to 25 km/h turning northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

Friday 23 October

Summary
Min 16
Max 26
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h increasing to 25 to 35 km/h in the afternoon.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Partly cloudy. Sydney 16 26
Partly cloudy. Penrith 15 31
Partly cloudy. Liverpool 15 29
Partly cloudy. Terrey Hills 15 25
Partly cloudy. Richmond 14 30
Partly cloudy. Parramatta 14 29
Partly cloudy. Campbelltown 13 29
Partly cloudy. Bondi 18 23

Saturday 24 October

Summary
Min 19
Max 26
Showers. Possible storm.
Possible rainfall: 4 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe. Light winds becoming northerly 20 to 30 km/h in the morning then tending northwesterly in the evening ahead of a southerly change overnight.

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

Sunday 25 October

Summary
Min 14
Max 19
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 10 to 15 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers. Winds southerly 25 to 35 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

Monday 26 October

Summary
Min 14
Max 19
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 8 to 20 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. Winds southerly 25 to 40 km/h.

Tuesday 27 October

Summary
Min 13
Max 21
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. The chance of thunderstorms in the outer west later in the day. Winds southerly 20 to 30 km/h turning southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 28 October

Summary
Min 15
Max 22
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 4 to 15 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.

Thursday 29 October

Summary
Min 15
Max 23
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 5 to 15 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming southeast to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


Still micro at Dee Why (and everywhere else)

Posted on October 22nd, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
The picture tells the story. No waves to speak of for Dee Why this morning. Out at sea the buoys were seeing a metre of 11 second SSE bump. Tide was low at 0655 and is currently heading to a swampy 1.7 m high at 1330. Weather should be partly cloudy with a high of 25C. Ocean’s still on 19C and beachwatch was warning that pollution is possible at Collaroy, Longy, DY, Curly and Queenscliff yesterday morning.
Today’s Goat day, so as always, I’m keen to see what he thinks of our surf prospects for next week. For what it’s worth, I’m cautiously hopeful for protected south corners in a few days…
Go well with your day and pack the mask for when you’re inside.

Still quiet at DY this morning


Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is extending a ridge towards the Queensland coast while a weak trough moves along the southern coast. Northerly winds will strengthen on Friday and Saturday ahead of the passage of a cold front, which looks set to bring a southerly change to southern parts late on Saturday and continue north on Sunday.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Friday 23 October
Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Saturday 24 October
Winds
Northeasterly 25 to 30 knots tending northerly 20 to 30 knots during the morning.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeast to southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.


Still tiny at Dee Why

Posted on October 21st, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
You’ll be doing well to get a wave above the thigh high mark this morning. It’s not absolutely and totally flat, but it’s close enough to that mark for yours truly to get on the pushy instead of going for a paddle. Swell at sea was 0.9 metres at 11 seconds from the SE and as of 0620, wind was coming from the NNW at 5-7 kts. Water is on 19C and weather outlook is for a mostly sunny day with a high of 25C. For the record, the first tide of the day was a low at 0600. It’ll be back to a swampy 1`.8m high at 1230. By then the NEr should be up.
According to the models, we’re at the lowest ebb for surf energy and from now into next week it should be at least a little bigger come the weekend. But for today and through to Saturday, it’s looking pretty quiet.
Go well with your day and take the mask for when you’re inside – it’s a simple way to keep the virus at low levels.

0600 pre-sunrise reveals not much in the way of surf at Dee Why


Weather Situation
A high pressure system lies over the southern Tasman Sea and extends a ridge to the northern New South Wales coast. Winds will gradually shift northerly in most coastal areas until a southerly change enters the far south coast late this afternoon. This southerly change will reach the central parts of the coast on Thursday, after which winds will shift northerly again and strengthen late this week ahead of a strong cold front crossing the state during the weekend.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
Northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Thursday 22 October
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots, turning southerly 10 to 15 knots inshore in the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Friday 23 October

Winds
Northeasterly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.


Fat and tiny but glassy at midday

Posted on October 20th, 2020 in Surf Reports.

Hello Friends,

Busy this morning, so didn’t see the beach until midday. As expected things looked pretty quiet along the Collaroy to Narrabeen stretch.
There were weak little knee high bumps flopping over at various points but as the pictures show, apart from being glassy, they looked low energy.
Swell at sea was around 1.1 m at 11 seconds from the SSE.
Outlook remains marginal through Friday, but some of the models are showing some NE wind swell action for Saturday morning…
Have a good one!

Surfrider Gardens

Quiet but still people in the water at Northy

Busy day

Bomb set


Weather Situation
A high pressure system lies over the southern Tasman Sea and extends a ridge to the northern New South Wales coast, with winds gradually shifting northerly in most coastal areas by mid-week. The next trough and southerly change are forecast for southern and central waters during Thursday, before winds shift northerly again and strengthen by the weekend ahead of a stronger cold front.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots turning east to northeasterly in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Wednesday 21 October
Winds
Northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by evening.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Thursday 22 October
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Northeast to southeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the evening


Showery, bumpy and tiny

Posted on October 19th, 2020 in Surf Reports.

Hello Friends,

The super quick version: weak, messy, tiny with rainy intervals.
The numbers at 0800: 6-7 kts of SSW breeze, 1.9 metres at 8 seconds from the SSE. Swampy 1.9 metre high tide at 1050. Daytime high of 21C with clearing showers. Water temp 19C.
General outlook: if anything, even smaller across the remainder of the workweek.

South Steyne clean, weak and tiny

Kudos to you good citizens cleaning the beach at Manly

eather Situation
A low pressure system lies over the Tasman Sea, while an associated trough is moving along the northern New South Wales coast, with southerly winds in its wake. Following this, a high pressure system is forecast to move from southeast Australia to the Tasman Sea during Tuesday, with winds gradually shifting northerly in most coastal areas by mid-week. The next trough and southerly change look set to affect southern and central waters during Thursday.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Tuesday 20 October
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning east to northeasterly during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Wednesday 21 October
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Little bumps at lots of places

Posted on October 18th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

A rather dull sort of morning, but the wind was still light at 0930 and while it was pretty fat thanks to a high tide at 1000, out at sea there was a 1.2 m, 10-second period SE swell which was delivering knee to chest high wave faces at the better exposures. I didn’t see much activity at the point when I grabbed the snap, but looking at some of the cams, I can see there soft but surfable options all over the place. You shouldn’t have to travel far to find something mildly diverting. We should see a mild 23 degree high with a 90% chance of showers toward the end of the day. Water is on 19C.

Little waves at the point

Weather Situation
A low pressure system to the east of Tasmania is heading to the Tasman Sea, with its associated southerly wind change moving across the southern and central coasts today, reaching the northern coast on Monday. After this winds will gradually turn southeast to northeasterly as a ridge of high pressure develops along the New South Wales coast.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots shifting south to southeasterly 15 to 25 knots in the late morning or early afternoon, reaching 30 knots offshore in the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Monday 19 October
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots tending southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Tuesday 20 October
Winds
South to southeasterly about 10 knots becoming east to northeasterly during the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Grey, glassy and small early

Posted on October 17th, 2020 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Surprisingly surfable looking little knee to waist-plus glassy peaks all over the place this morning. The incoming tide was beginning to swamp them and the short period nature of the swell means there’s not a lot of power, so you’ll want to take your floatiest surf tool to get the most out of the conditions.

Swell at sea was around the 1.3 metre mark at 6-7 seconds from the SE and the breeze was coming lightly from the NW at 2-3 kts as of 0630. Tide was on the way in to a swampy 1.8 metre high at 0915. Skies were solidly overcast and there’s a 50% chance of a shower later. The day is set to warm up to 26C. Water is on 19C and Beachwatch says quality is good everywhere along Sydney’s beaches.

Longy crew chasing bumps

Soft set at Longy

Near the pole

Knee to waist at Northy

Little peaks at Surfrider Gardens

Far north Collaroy peak

Weather Situation
Northerly winds are forecast to increase today ahead of the passage of a trough that will bring a southerly change to southern parts of the coast late this evening. This southerly change will then continue north, reaching the northern coast on Monday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
North to northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Winds may briefly turn south to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots in the late evening
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres around midday.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 50% chance of showers this evening. The chance of a thunderstorm later tonight.
Sunday 18 October
Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming north to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots before dawn then shifting south to southeasterly 20 to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres offshore.
Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Monday 19 October
Winds
South to southeasterly 15 to 25 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Southerly Friday morning

Posted on October 16th, 2020 in Surf Reports.

Hello Friends,

Grey skies and the wind moaning through the rigging as Friday got started along the coast. As of 0800 the southerly was 20-28 kts while out a sea the bump was two to three metres but only 5 seconds apart and coming from 200°.

Manly was quite clean at the south end and there were a reasonable number in the water chasing the knee to thigh high sets.

Have a great Friday and keep masking indoors!

Mid-Steyne set

Weather Situation
A strong high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea is extending a ridge to the northern New South Wales coast. A southerly change affects southern and central parts of the coast today. Following this, a new high looks set to develop over the Tasman Sea during the weekend, with winds once again shifting northerly.

Forecast for Friday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 25 knots shifting southerly in the morning with winds reaching up to 30 knots. Winds then becoming southeasterly about 10 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre by early evening.
1st Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre by early evening.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy.
Saturday 17 October
Winds
East to northeasterly about 10 knots tending north to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the morning.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of showers.
Sunday 18 October
Winds
Northerly 10 to 15 knots shifting southerly 15 to 20 knots about midday.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.