Archive for November 2020

Too tiny for surfin’

Posted on November 21st, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

The pictures tell the story this morning: there’s just about no surf. Even the spots that doing something with the weak south wind bump are only in the ankle to knee high range – on sets.
Cloudy skies early and a steady 10-12 kts of south wind are making for a less than appetizing beach morning. Wind swell out at sea is 1.5 metres from the south at just 4-5 seconds apart. Ocean temp is on 20C as we head to a high of 24C along the coast with south wind.
Outlook is basically for a surfless weekend with a modest hope of something into the surfable range (think knee to waist) from around Tuesday…
So have yourself a top old day, and sorry about the surf!

Shimmering sea

Dee Why looking really tiny and weak

Soft peak

Weak dribble at Long Reef

Tiny at Surfrider Gardens

Very tiny at Northy


Weather Situation
A trough of low pressure has stalled about the Mid North Coast and will weaken in place today, with southerly winds easing to the south. Northerly winds will then increase as the high pressure system again becomes the dominant feature over the Tasman Sea. Then the winds will turn southerly again early next week as the next front moves across the state.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots decreasing to about 10 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Sunday 22 November
Winds
West to southwesterly about 10 knots, tending north to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the late morning. During the afternoon winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the late afternoon and evening.
Monday 23 November
Winds
North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots, shifting south to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.


Nothing doing on the surf front at Dee Why this morning

Posted on November 20th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Another day for your no-surf exercise alternatives at Dee Why. We’re heading to a high of 29C with a sunny morning and the chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon. The wind should come up into the 15-20 kt range from the N to NE later. Out at sea the buoys are detecting 1.3 metres of 7 second NE wind bump. Ocean temp is on 20C and water is clean up and down Sydney’s coastline.
While there’s nothing going on at Dee Why, better NE exposures should see lumpy, weak stuff in the knee to waist high range.
If you’re wondering about the weekend prospects, well, as always the unsinkable Goat has rolled out his usual Thursday evening predictions for the coming surf week.
Go well one and all and keep the mask handy for indoor public spaces. As the latest South Australian cluster shows, the virus can spread quickly before it’s detected.

Micro at the point as of 0700

Too tiny to ride at Kiddies

No takers at No Mans


Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is generating northerly winds along the New South Wales coast. A trough will bring a southerly change to southern parts of the coast during the afternoon and evening today, and then continue north to the Mid North Coast on Saturday, where it will stall and weaken. Northerly winds will then increase as the high pressure system again becomes the dominant feature over the Tasman Sea.

Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore during the day. Winds shifting southerly in the late evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny morning. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening.
Saturday 21 November
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Sunday 22 November
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the day.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on November 19th, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 19 November 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Another quick one from TBG (The Bionic Goat), cause he’s tired, worn out, needs a rest, and he says there’s not much to get too excited about anyway…

But who doesn’t like variety in their weather conditions, wind directions, wave directions, and general lives, hey??

Surf outlook is for mostly small to medium conditions for the weekend and week ahead.

But for those who want to get wet there should be waves from time to time, if you’ve got the right gear, and the right attitude. You might just have to look for them.

Friday: around 1-1+ metres of Noreast windswell

Saturday: leftovers from the above and chopped and whipped into submission by S/SE winds

Sunday: 1 metre or less at places open to dead South… lesser elsewhere

Monday: Ditto but North Eastish

Tuesday: up a little into the low end of the 1-2 metre range South East

Wednesday: down a little and more East

Thursday: Dittoish

Keep your eyes peeled for Opportunities.

TBG says he’ll be good as new very soon, once the battery recharges.

Up in the Air

MSLP Analysis for Thu Nov 19 06:00:00 2020 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Nov 19 07:30:00 2020

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8

Down in the Sea

Water temp has at last started to get get human-friendly. Currently around 20ish off Sydney

image

Tides

Click to access tide-tables-2020-2021.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Mostly clear.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly clear. Winds northeasterly 25 to 40 km/h decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Friday 20 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 29
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Hot and mostly sunny. The chance of fog in the west in the early morning. Medium (40%) chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Winds northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h tending northeasterly 20 to 35 km/h in the afternoon then shifting southeasterly 20 to 35 km/h in the late evening.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Mostly sunny. Sydney 17 29
Hot. Possible afternoon storm. Penrith 16 38
Possible afternoon shower. Liverpool 16 36
Mostly sunny. Terrey Hills 16 29
Hot. Possible afternoon storm. Richmond 16 37
Possible afternoon shower. Parramatta 15 35
Possible afternoon storm. Campbelltown 14 36
Mostly sunny. Bondi 18 25

Saturday 21 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 24
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds southerly 25 to 35 km/h tending southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Sunday 22 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 29
Possible late shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Monday 23 November

Summary
Min 20
Max 29
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming west to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning then tending southeast to southwesterly during the evening.

Tuesday 24 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 23
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm, most likely during the morning. Winds southerly 20 to 30 km/h turning southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 25 November

Summary
Min 16
Max 23
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Thursday 26 November

Summary
Min 15
Max 26
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds northerly 15 to 20 km/h tending northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h during the day.


Really tiny

Posted on November 19th, 2020 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Wind was faintly out of the WNW as Thursday got started. We’re heading to a mostly sunny day with a high of 26C. Swell at sea was 0.9 metres at 9-10 seconds from the NE. First tide of the day is the 1.85 m high at 1210.

Did the Manly run this morning, so, as you can see from the pics, it’s pretty much ankle to knee high at Queenscliff, Curly and Dee Why. Nice morning for an exercise paddle though. Water is on 20C too.

The NE’r should come up soon and it’s predicted to get into the 20-25 kt range by dusk. With luck that’ll mean waves for tomorrow’s early will be a wee bit bigger…

Go well everyone!

Emerald waters and micro waves at Queenscliff

Knee high dribble at Curly

Unrideable at the point

No mans ankle to knee

Weather Situation
Northerly winds will extend along the New South Wales coast as a high pressure system becomes established over the Tasman Sea. A trough is then forecast to bring a southerly change to southern waters on Friday, continuing through to the Mid North Coast on Saturday where it will stall and weaken.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres around midday.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Friday 20 November
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Saturday 21 November
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots decreasing to about 10 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Missable

Posted on November 18th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

A partly cloudy start to the day for Sydney. Wind was coming from the ENE at 5-7 kts and out at sea the bump was 1.3 metres from the south at 8 seconds apart. So, no real improvement from yesterday. Tide was low at 0450 and will be back to a swampy 1.94 metre high at 1120. Speaking of highs, it’s set to go to 23C and the wind should pick up along the coast as gets to 15-20 kts from the NE.
Yeah, not a surfing day at Dee Why, so switch to your second choice exercise option, or if you’re desperate, maybe wander around to Curly for some barely surfable chop.
From the look of the models, tomorrow is probably not going to be much of an improvement. There does seem to be some hope for some NE windswell Thursday-Friday.
Have a great Wednesday!

Dee Why looking quiet

Tiny

Choppy

Weather Situation
A high pressure system moving over the Tasman Sea during Wednesday extends a ridge along the coast. Coastal winds will gradually turn northerly again as the high moves further east during the latter part of the week, before the next trough and southerly change reaches the southern half of the coast during Friday.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
Easterly about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Thursday 19 November
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Friday 20 November
Winds
Northeasterly 20 to 25 knots turning northerly during the morning.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.


Dull, grey and tiny early

Posted on November 17th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Not the most attractive morning out there. Grey skies, hazy and 10-15 kts of SSE wind. Out at sea the buoys were seeing 1.5 metres of 6-second SE wind bump, while inshore, as the pics show, it was knee high and junky as the tide was running into the very swampy 1.99 m high at 1030 this morning.
Outlook is for the small, short period generally onshore conditions look set to last through the end of the week. So, if you can’t get to the beach, you’re not missing much.
BTW, spare a thought for our fellow humans over on Nicaragua’s east coast where hurricane Iota has intensified to a category 5 with winds of 260 kph 5-6 metres of storm surge. Climate change has induced a record breaking season for hurricanes this year – and poor people who make essentially no contribution to the cause are getting hit hardest. Let’s help them by voting for better politicians and taking practical steps such as making sure for instance that our super funds aren’t investing in climate damaging businesses.
Go well, get up to good and keep on smilin’!

Weather is set to be partly cloudy today with a high of 21C.

grey and SSE

No waves at the points

Sort of little peak

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge towards the Queensland coast, while a low pressure trough lies along the Mid North Coast this morning. The trough, and associated southerly change, will extend to northern parts of the coast during Tuesday. Following this, a new high is forecast to drift across southeast Australia to be over the Tasman Sea by Wednesday, pushing a ridge along the coast. Coastal winds will gradually turn northerly again as the high moves further east during the week, before the next trough and southerly change arrive in New South Wales on Friday.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore during the morning, tending southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
1st Swell
Below 0.5 metres, increasing to southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Wednesday 18 November
Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots tending east to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres inshore during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Thursday 19 November
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.


Tiny at Dee Why on a sunny Monday morning

Posted on November 16th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Going to 33C today and, as so often happens, when it’s hot, it’s micro. The standout spots are seeing the odd knee to thigh high set, but everywhere else is choppy and flat. Wind was 11-15 kts from the NE. Tide’s coming into a swampy 2 metre high at 0940 and out at sea the buoys are detecting a metre of 5-7 seconds of ENE wind swell. Water is clean and currently on 20C according to Beachwatch.

The models are showing a gradual increase in wave heights as the day goes along, but the wind’s set to go around to the SE by around midday. Tomorrow’s set to be windy with SW early going SE later… so maybe high tide spots will be a possibility for the early. Outlook for the remainder of the week is not currently looking terribly hopeful with not much more than a metre of windswell to work with.

Take care, go well and have fun with your Monday.

Tiny point

Tiny kiddies

Tiny No Mans

Weather Situation
Northerly winds are increasing as a high pressure system continues to build over the Tasman Sea and a trough and cold front approach from the west. This front and associated trough are forecast to bring a strong southerly change to southern parts of the coast on Monday and then continue north to Queensland on Tuesday. Following this, a new high will extend a ridge along the New South Wales coast.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore in the late morning.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny day. The chance of a thunderstorm this evening.
Tuesday 17 November
Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
South to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots early in the morning. Winds turning southeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and early afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres around midday.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore in the early morning.
Wednesday 18 November
Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots tending east to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Mostly sunny.


Sunny Sunday with tiny waves at NE magnets

Posted on November 15th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
A proper summery morning with clear skies and knee high waves to be had at the NE magnets. It was too small for Dee Why though. I couldn’t see anyone on a board at that end of the beach. Wind was starting to come up from the NE by the time I grabbed the snaps. It’s 9-12 kts as I write and will get into the 15-20 kt range by this afternoon. Tide hit a swampy 1.9 metre high just before 0900 and is currently dropping to a lowish 0.17 m low at 1520. Should be sunny all day with temps peaking at 26C. Swell at sea was a touch under a metre at 9 seconds from the NE. Beachwatch says water quality is good everywhere and on the 20C mark.
Outlook for the remainder of the week is for more or less the same on the surf front, ie small and weak short period wind bump.
Go well, take care and keep on smilin’!

Sunny scenes at Dee Why but not much surf

Beach looking really tiny

Weather Situation
A low pressure trough on the far northern New South Wales coast will continue to move gradually north this morning. A high pressure system developing over the Tasman Sea today will increase northerly winds over coastal waters. A cold front and associated trough are forecast to bring a strong southerly change to southern parts of the coast on Monday and then continue north to Queensland on Tuesday.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Winds
Northerly below 10 knots tending northeasterly 15 to 20 knots early in the morning.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.
Monday 16 November
Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore during the morning. Winds tending northwest to southwesterly in the late evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny day. The chance of a thunderstorm in the late afternoon and evening.
Tuesday 17 November
Winds
South to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots turning southeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly below 0.5 metres, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 2 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning.


Knee to waist high and smooth early

Posted on November 14th, 2020 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Partly cloudy skies, light WSW wind and a near-full tide were setting the stage for an 8-second 1.2 metres line from the NE to produce waist high sets at the better exposures. Lots of folks in the water from the get-go and it looks as though long lulls are the order of the day. But it was super clean and while soft, definitely surfable. Tide will hit the 1.83 m high at 0805. It’ll be back to low at 1425. Ocean is clean and Beachwatch says the temp’s on 20C. Weather call is for a partly cloudy day with a high of 25C.
As the Goat foreshadowed, the outlook for the week ahead is quiet but not utterly flat conditions.

Tiny bomb set at Dee Why 0645

Near the pole

Just south of Surfrider Gardens

Quite the crew hanging out at Northy

Surfrider Gardens this morning

South Narrabeen

Weather Situation
A low pressure trough sits over inland parts of northern New South Wales, moving over northern coastal parts as a southerly change moves up the coast. Following this, a high pressure system is forecast to develop over the western Tasman Sea during Sunday, before the next trough and southerly change early in the new week.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
South to southwesterly about 10 knots tending southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the late afternoon then turning east to northeasterly below 10 knots in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 2 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Sunday 15 November
Winds
North to northwesterly about 10 knots tending northeasterly 15 to 25 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.
Monday 16 November
Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots shifting south to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots during the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
East to northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.


Looking flat down Dee Why way this morning

Posted on November 13th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Rained overnight but the showers abated around 0600 as a light NNE breeze perked up. Out at sea the waverider buoy data was showing 1.5 metres of 8-second NE wind bump and that was translating to, well, not much of anything where Dee Why was concerned. It’s not absolutely flat, but you’re going to need to be very patient. Wave faces were in the knee to maybe waist high range and energy level looked to be what you’d expect given the period. Take the mal or the fish and who knows, maybe you’ll jag a soft little bump of some sort.
40 people in the water at the north end of Curly where swell was most focused. Typical NE wind bump, with occasional shoulder high wave faces momentarily making things interesting among the generally weak and fat conditions.

Zippo

A hint of a line 06

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is extending a ridge to the northern New South Wales coast today, while a low pressure trough lies over the state’s west. This combination is directing fresh to strong north to northeasterly winds over most coastal waters. The trough is expected to bring a southerly change to southern parts of the coast early Friday, extending through central and northern areas on Saturday. Following this, a new high is forecast to develop over the western Tasman Sea during Sunday, before the next trough and southerly change early in the new week.

Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots. Winds tending west to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre, tending northeasterly 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 90% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Saturday 14 November
Winds
West to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots turning south to southwesterly early in the morning, then tending southeasterly in the afternoon, becoming northeasterly in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Sunny.
Sunday 15 November
Winds
North to northeasterly around 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots during the morning then becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.