Archive for January 2021

SE into it from early

Posted on January 19th, 2021 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Passing showers, the odd sunny break, 2 metres of 12 second swell at sea, but coming from the 184°, and 16-23 kts of SSE wind, do not a pretty surf picture make. The extreme south angle of the swell ensures that anything without good exposure is really small and junky, while spots better aligned are in the chest to shoulder high range on sets, but also junky and getting junkier as the wind ramps toward the 30 kt mark this morning.

As the forecast below indicates, we can expect the swell to come up pretty dramatically across the day as it builds to peak intensity of 4-5 metres tomorrow. The wind will continue its baleful ways until Thursday morning according to the Bureau. But then it looks like it just might come together as the swell chugs along in the 3 metre range and wind is light early before going NE in the afternoon.

Have a great Tuesday and mask up to keep the virus away!

North of Kiddies

Wind chewing it up at Dee Why

North Collaroy tiny

Narrabeen not firing


Weather Situation
A high pressure system south of the Great Australian Bight extends a ridge into New South Wales, with a second, weaker high situated over the northern Tasman Sea. A low pressure system lies over the southern Tasman Sea, and an associated cold front is bringing a vigorous southerly change to the coast today. Conditions should ease on Wednesday as the front moves away and the high drifts across southeast Australia, although a large swell is expected.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southeasterly 20 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots during the morning and early afternoon. Winds turning southerly 15 to 25 knots in the morning.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, increasing to 3 to 5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions in the afternoon and evening are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Wednesday 20 January
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots turning southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 4 to 5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Thursday 21 January
Winds
Variable below 10 knots becoming northerly 10 to 15 knots during the morning then tending northeasterly 15 to 25 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Southerly 3 to 4 metres, decreasing to 3 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloud clearing.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.


Too south for Dee Why

Posted on January 18th, 2021 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Swell was showing on the buoy at 1.8 metres and 10 seconds from 171°, so getting close to dead south and therefore not refracting into our coastline too much. There were people in the water at Dee Why for the early but waves look to be in the knee to waist high range on sets. Wind wass 6-8 kts from the north.
I’m not hopeful for any real improvement to surf energy levels today. The best plan is to head to your favourite south swell spot and hope for the best.

From tomorrow it looks like the swell will start ramping but the wind call is not looking good. Maybe the early tomorrow, but after that it’s shaping to be big, but blown out from the south to SE.

Right now I’m pinning my hopes on Thursday when at least some of the modelling is showing solid swell and light winds for the early (but blown out in the afternoon). With luck Friday will start with a few good ones as well. It’ll probably pretty straight south though, so as always, your mileage may vary.

Go well with your Monday, stay safe and pack the mask!

Little line up the beach around 0800

Not quite catchable at the point

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Great Australian Bight extends a ridge into New South Wales, with a second, weaker, high situated over the northern Tasman Sea. A low pressure system is forecast to deepen over the southern Tasman Sea on Monday, with an associated cold front set to bring a vigorous southerly change to the coast on Tuesday. Conditions should ease on Wednesday as the front moves away and the high drifts across southeast Australia, although a large swell may linger.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
North to northwesterly below 10 knots becoming northerly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon then tending northeasterly in the late afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Cloud clearing.

Tuesday 19 January
Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southeast to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots tending southerly 20 to 30 knots in the morning then tending south to southeasterly 15 to 25 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 4 metres during the day.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions in the afternoon and evening are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Wednesday 20 January
Winds
South to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots tending east to southeasterly below 10 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 3 to 5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions in the morning are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.


Swell for Sunday

Posted on January 17th, 2021 in At large.

Hello Friends,
Brilliant Sunday morning with nice lines coming in and light offshore wind under cloudless blue skies. Set wave faces at the best exposures look to be in the shoulder plus range, so be prepared to wear the odd bomb set. Swell at sea was 1.7 metres at 9 seconds from the SSE.
Lots of people in the water everywhere so you’ll need to pack some patience along with your board. The waves were really pretty, but as I watched, it became apparent that they were shutting down a high percentage of the time. Jagging a makeable one will be down to luck as much as anything else so my hunch is that the average person probably won’t be running up a big wave count from their Sunday session. That said, if you aren’t in the water, you’re guaranteed to have a wave count of zero. And speaking of the water, I jumped in for a quick trial of the pranged shoulder and can report it is beautiful in (shoulder went well too!).
We can expect the wind to swing onshore from the SE this morning, so getting in early will reap the rewards.
Tide was low at 0540 and will be back to a swampy 1.7 metre high a little after noon. We should see a high of 26 today and beachwatch says the ocean’s 23C and pretty much clean everywhere apart from maybe lagoon entrances.
Swell outlook for the coming week is interesting. Tomorrow should see the swell continue at around the current intensity with light wind for the early but going NE in the arvo. Tuesday may have something for the early along the same lines as Monday, but by afternoon the southerly should be hitting hard and the swell will start ramping into the serious range (well overhead). Wednesday looks big and windblowh but Thursday potentially could be big and clean early. Friday could see swell subsiding steadily, but offering more fun for the early crew…
Go well, take the mask, and stay safe!

No Mans

No Mans

North Kiddies

Busy morning at the point

Lotsa pretty shutdowns at Surfrider Gardens

North Collaroy cruncher

A few bods in the water at Northy

Surfrider Gardens rare makeable section

Weather Situation
A high pressure system near the Bight extends a ridge through New South Wales, and is working with a strong low near New Zealand to produce strong winds over southern New South Wales waters. Another, weaker high lies off the northeast coast of New South Wales. A cold front will bring a gusty south to southwesterly change extending north everywhere along the coast Tuesday.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Winds
Northwest to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending southeasterly in the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Sunny.

Monday 18 January
Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Tuesday 19 January
Winds
North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots shifting southerly 20 to 30 knots during the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, increasing to 2.5 to 4 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the evening.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions in the afternoon and evening are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.


Beautiful but small for Saturday morning

Posted on January 16th, 2021 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Another sparkling Sydney morning for Saturday. The Bureau says the swell should come up and that the wind should stay offshore while it’s sunny all day. As the morning got started the waves were in the knee to waist plus range on sets at magnets – everywhere else was smaller. Tide was low at 0500 and will be back to highish 1.83 m at 1125. Ocean is on 23C. Swell was 1.7 metres at 8 seconds from the SSE.
Have a great Saturday!

Longy

No Mans

North Collaroy

Northy

Weather Situation
A slow-moving high pressure system over the eastern Tasman Sea extends a ridge towards the Queensland coast. A strong southerly change located near the Mid North Coast will move northwards into Queensland in the middle of the day.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
West to southwesterly 20 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots during the morning. Winds shifting east to southeasterly below 10 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing below 2 metres around midday, then decreasing to 1 metre during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southerly below 0.5 metres, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Sunny.

Sunday 17 January
Winds
Variable below 10 knots becoming northwest to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots early in the morning then tending southeasterly in the early afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Sunny.

Monday 18 January
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.


Friday not too interesting at the beach

Posted on January 15th, 2021 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
A light SSW breeze and high overcast for Friday morning. Surf is still in the knee high range and very weak and soft looking. So, yeah, if you’re really keen, take your tiny wave tool and have fun. Bump out at sea has come up a little and as of 0800 was 1.6 metres at 8 seconds from the SSE. Water’s clean and 23C and we’re in for a 29C high with the chance of a shower.
Wondering about the surf prospects for the weekend and beyond? Look no further than the mighty Goat’s latest wave call!
Take care, take the mask and have a great Friday everyone.

Black and white pic for a mono morning at Dee Why

Weather Situation
A slow-moving high pressure system over the eastern Tasman Sea extends a ridge towards the northern New South Wales coast, directing east to northeasterly winds over most coastal areas. A southerly change lies near the Hunter coast. Another stronger southerly change is expected to move along the southern half of the coast late today and the remainder during Saturday.

Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
South to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots shifting east to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the early afternoon then tending northwest to northeasterly in the evening.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 metre around midday.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening.

Saturday 16 January
Gale Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southwesterly 25 to 35 knots decreasing to 25 to 30 knots before dawn then tending northeast to southeasterly 15 to 25 knots in the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning, then decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Sunny.

Sunday 17 January
Winds
Westerly 10 to 15 knots shifting southeasterly during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Sunny.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on January 14th, 2021 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 14 January 2021: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Is that my tummy rumbling?? No it’s thunder, with a few flashes and little spots of rain. Which means to avoid the possibility of being zapped if you’re at the beach or in the water, you don’t want to be.

In answer to Bobby’s question at the beach.. when will the southerly come?… hmm little bit later tonite up here. It’s currently, as TG puts his hoofs to the keys, to the south of Syd.  But the Bureau doesn’t expect it to stay around long. And TG doesn’t expect much in the way of surf from the initial blow…maybe in a few days.

In answer to Hector who wants instant gratification, see below>>>

Surf outlook

For the weekend and week ahead, smallish initially but look for waves at the right tides, right places and you might get lucky.  Have Fun, irrespective and Keep Smiling 🙂 >>>

Friday around 1 metre or so from East North East

Saturday: around 1 metre or less from dead South.. ie little waves at places open to the south as most swell will go straight past the surf zones

Sunday: ditto pretty much

Monday: and again

Tuesday: coming up at dead south spots, say through the 1-2 metre range, 2, 2+ metres even but with the wind behind it to mess it up

Wednesday: easing back a little, say around 2 metres or so dead South, still with wind

Thursday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range dead South.

Stay well. Stay safe, in and out of the water.

TG

Up in the Air

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jan 14 00:00:00 2021 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Jan 14 05:30:00 2021

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8,m:cIJaknc

Down in the Sea

Water temp is a very pleasant stay-in-for-a-long-time 23 degrees.

image

Tides

Click to access tide-tables-2020-2021.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower, becoming less likely later tonight. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h shifting southerly in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Friday 15 January

Summary
Min 20
Max 29
Becoming windy. Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of an afternoon shower. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Winds southerly 25 to 35 km/h tending east to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then tending west to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h in the late evening.

Fire Danger – Very High

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Becoming windy. Partly cloudy. Sydney 20 29
Partly cloudy. Penrith 19 35
Partly cloudy. Liverpool 19 33
Partly cloudy. Terrey Hills 18 28
Partly cloudy. Richmond 19 35
Partly cloudy. Parramatta 18 32
Partly cloudy. Campbelltown 18 33
Becoming windy. Partly cloudy. Bondi 21 26

Saturday 16 January

Summary
Min 16
Max 26
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds southwesterly 25 to 40 km/h shifting east to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon then becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Sunday 17 January

Summary
Min 16
Max 26
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming southerly 15 to 25 km/h during the day then tending southeasterly during the afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Monday 18 January

Summary
Min 19
Max 29
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Tuesday 19 January

Summary
Min 19
Max 24
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h tending south to southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning.

Wednesday 20 January

Summary
Min 17
Max 24
Cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.2 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Mostly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Winds southerly 15 to 20 km/h.

Thursday 21 January

Summary
Min 16
Max 27
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


Still tiny on Thursday

Posted on January 14th, 2021 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Too tiny to surf this morning at Dee Why. But people are trying anyway so kudos for keeping the stoke alive.
Wind bump at sea is a metre at 4-5 seconds from the NE. Average wave height should get into the waist high range at exposed spots – if you’re a fan of surfing in onshore conditions. On the good news front, Beachwatch is reporting clean and 24C water.
The Goat should be along later with his thoughts about the weekend and next week’s surf prospects. I’ve got my fingers crossed.
Go well and mask up!

SUPs the go on Thursday morning


Weather Situation
A slow-moving high pressure system over the eastern Tasman Sea extends a ridge towards the northern New South Wales coast, directing east to northeasterly winds over most coastal areas. A southerly change will move north along the south coast during today, with another southerly change on Friday.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny day. The chance of a thunderstorm late this afternoon and evening.

Friday 15 January
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots before dawn, then shifting south to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots inshore early in the morning, then throughout by mid morning.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre around midday.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the late afternoon and evening.

Saturday 16 January
Winds
Southwesterly 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 25 knots during the morning then shifting east to southeasterly below 10 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.


Warm day ahead but still tiny

Posted on January 13th, 2021 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Only a faint 1 metre, 6 second east wind bump lapping in under largely clear skies. We’re heading to high of 29C and Beachwatch said water was 23C yesterday, so there may not really be any waves, but at least the water is nice.
It doesn’t look as though tomorrow will be much better than today where surf’s concerned. There still seems to be the prospect of a south pulse on Saturday (with south wind) but it’s looking pretty straight. So, cautious hope only…
Go well, look after yourself and take the mask when you go out.

Another micro summer morning at Dee Why

Weather Situation
A slow-moving high pressure system over the eastern Tasman Sea extends a ridge towards the northern New South Wales coast, directing east to northeasterly winds over most coastal areas. A southerly change is expected to move north along the south coast during Thursday and Friday.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 10 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
East to northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Thursday 14 January
Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots tending northeasterly 20 to 30 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, increasing to 2.5 to 3 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
East to northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and early evening.

Friday 15 January
Winds
South to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots tending northeast to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon then turning south to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots during the evening.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the afternoon or evening.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the evening.


Sunny, mild and near flat

Posted on January 12th, 2021 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Your surf options are pretty limited this morning. If you have the gear for ankle to calf high waves, pull it down from the rafters and go for a paddle.
As of 0800 the wind was out of the NNE at 9-10 kts under mostly clear skies. It should pick up into the 15-20 kt range by lunch time while the swell stays below the metre mark.
Tomorrow looks like being around the same while there may possibly be a tiny bit more energy for the Thursday morning session.
There’s nothing much of interest on this morning’s run of the swell models until (maybe) this time next week when there might be a pulse of south swell (but with southerly wind on top of it).
Hang in there everybody, we’re a day closer to the next good day.

 

Ankle to knee high

Weather Situation
A slow-moving high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge towards the northern New South Wales coast, directing east to northeasterly winds over most coastal areas. A low pressure trough will bring a brief southerly change to the southern coast today, with a more substantial change expected during Thursday and Friday.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
East to southeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Wednesday 13 January
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Thursday 14 January

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots, shifting southerly 15 to 20 knots in the evening or at night.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.


Beautiful but micro

Posted on January 11th, 2021 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Perfect weather, light wind early, sunny skies, but it’s only knee to maybe very occasionally waist high where the surf’s concerned. We’re heading to a high of 28C along the beaches and Beachwatch reports the water is on 21C . Swell at sea this morning was around 0.8 metres from the SE at 11 seconds.

Outlook remains for the coming week to be very small to near flat, although there is at least a hope for a little up tick on the weekend – but with wind on it.

Summer time is here.

So, take care, maintain your distance and wear your mask where you’re supposed to and have a great Monday.

Quiet on the surf front Monday morning

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge along the New South Wales coast. As this high slowly drifts east over the next few days, winds will gradually turn northeasterly and increase in most coastal areas. A trough may bring a brief southerly change to the southern coast on Tuesday, with a more substantial change likely during the second half of the week.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
Northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres inshore by early evening.
Swell
Southeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Tuesday 12 January
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Wednesday 13 January
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
East to northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.