Archive for February 2021

Too tiny to be serious

Posted on February 28th, 2021 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

A hazy, foggy morning along the beaches that reminds me of an early summer morning in southern California. And the utter lack of swell is also reminiscent of that coastline in that season. As the picture shows, DY SLSC was conducting activities in the benign conditions, but I couldn’t see anyone out for a surf. Looking at the buoy data, there was a metre and a bit of 11 second bump coming from 153°, so in theory there ought to be the occasional waist high wave at the magnets. Wind was coming lightly from the south at 6-10 kts.
There’s not much in the swell models for us today, nor across the coming week, although that said, at least one prediction model is showing a short-period bump from the south on Tuesday and then a longer period but smaller south swell following next day. So I’m going to pin my hopes on the most optimistic prediction, because why not?
Have yourself a top old Sunday everyone!

SLSC activities underway at 0830


 
Weather Situation
A trough of low pressure on the northern New South Wales coast will decay this morning, although a second trough is forecast to bring a weak southerly change to southern and central parts of the coast later today. A stronger southerly change is expected to affect most areas later Monday or Tuesday, with a high pressure ridge extending along the coast in its wake.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Winds
Northerly about 10 knots becoming southeast to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day then becoming east to southeasterly about 10 knots in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Monday 1 March
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots. Winds tending southerly late in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Tuesday 2 March
Winds
Southerly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly below 0.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Weak and tiny early

Posted on February 27th, 2021 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Had my fingers crossed for a bit more activity than we’re seeing along the beaches this morning. At least there are still some waves around for the keen.

The wind wasn’t a factor for the early but the combination of a swampy 1.9 metre high at 0910 and swell at sea of 1.5 metres from the SE with a paltry 9 second period meant that we had knee to maybe waist high with very occasional chest high sets.

Wind is likely to come up from the SE before long, so the plan is to hit it as early as possible.

Energy levels are set to drop across the day and tomorrow and Monday are looking pretty marginal at this stage. The swell models however are somewhat hopeful for late Tuesday and Wednesday. The prospect is for 2-3 metres of 10-12 second period dead south swell peaking on Wednesday. The quality prospects aren’t great because it also looks as though there will be 15-20 kt south wind with it.

Have a great Saturday everyone!

Cruising a glassy Longy peak 0645

Dee Why well attended

Little peak happening at Northy

Surfrider Gardens 0630

Weather Situation
A southerly change is near stationary about the Mid North Coast will weaken in place over the weekend. A more vigorous southerly change looks set to move across coastal waters on Monday and Tuesday next week.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots becoming easterly in the morning, then turning north to northeasterly in the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre around midday.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy.

Sunday 28 February
Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Monday 1 March
Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending north to northwesterly 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres inshore during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.


Sunny skies return

Posted on February 26th, 2021 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Beautiful end of summer morning out there. Dee Why was seeing clean looking knee to waist high waves, but there wasn’t anything happening at the point. Wind was out of the SW at 6-8 kts and tide was coming into the deep 1.8 m high at 0830. Weather should be partly cloudy as we get to a high of 26. Wind is due to go southerly this morning, so it’s now or never for most spots. Swell at sea is a metre from the east at 8.5 seconds.
Outlook you ask? Ah, well, the Mighty Goat has examined the entrails and pronounced.
Have a great Friday one and all!

Point not doing anything, but little waves on the beach

Tiny and pretty at south Curly

Bodysurfer jags one

Weather Situation
A ridge of high pressure across the Tasman Sea extends northeast to northwest winds across central and northern New South Wales waters. A trough and southerly change will continue progressing along southern and central parts of the coast this morning, extending to the northeast coast later today.

Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
Northwesterly 10 to 15 knots shifting southerly 15 to 20 knots in the morning, then tending southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres, tending easterly 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
2nd Swell
South to southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Saturday 27 February
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning northeasterly in the middle of the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy.

Sunday 28 February
Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on February 25th, 2021 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf Forecast issued Thursday 25 February 2021: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

TGF… Thank Goodness it’s Friday.. At least it will be if you’re reading this tomorrow. If not, it just means The Goat’s Forecast.

Dull, grey, uninspiring, unexciting.. and that’s just some of the things I said to TG, telling him to smarten up.

Mind you the weather and the surf have been a little bit like that too at times.  So, What’s ahead>>>

Lots of variety in the weather and winds, but there will be waves of the medium-to smallish-to moderate size all week…

Friday: around 1-1+ metres from the North East, before the wind turns south

Saturday: around 1-1+ metres South East with light Easterly onshore

Sunday: around 1-1+ metres East South East

Monday: around 1 ish East

Tuesday: coming up into the 1-2 metre range South East

Wednesday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range at places open to dead South swell

Thursday: 1-2 metre range South East.

Today only>>> Just for something a little different, scroll down to see the Bureau’s forecast for Space Weather! >>>

TGF R/S: Always the Innovators 🙂

Have fun. Stay safe.

TG.

Up in the Air

MSLP Analysis for Thu Feb 25 06:00:00 2021 AUTC

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Feb 25 06:30:00 2021

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8,m:cIJaknc

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 23.

image

Tides

Click to access tide-tables-2020-2021.pdf

Space Weather!

Huh?? That sounds weird ??

Just something a little bit different for you, courtesy of the BoM, to maybe broaden your knowledge or interests… or keep you from playing in traffic …

Yes it does affect stuff on earth believe it or not>>>

http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/?ref=ftr

Earth Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Shower or two. Possible storm.
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers or thunderstorms, becoming less likely later tonight. Winds north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:20 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Friday 26 February

Summary
Min 19
Max 26
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower, most likely in the evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the early morning. Winds southerly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the middle of the day then becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the evening.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 9:20 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Partly cloudy. Sydney 19 26
Possible shower. Penrith 18 30
Possible shower. Liverpool 17 28
Partly cloudy. Terrey Hills 18 24
Possible shower. Richmond 18 29
Partly cloudy. Parramatta 17 27
Possible shower. Campbelltown 16 28
Partly cloudy. Bondi 20 24

Saturday 27 February

Summary
Min 19
Max 26
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 9:20 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Sunday 28 February

Summary
Min 20
Max 29
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 9:20 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Monday 1 March

Summary
Min 20
Max 31
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Tuesday 2 March

Summary
Min 20
Max 26
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Winds west to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h shifting southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.

Wednesday 3 March

Summary
Min 18
Max 24
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Thursday 4 March

Summary
Min 18
Max 25
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day


Waves for Thursday morning

Posted on February 25th, 2021 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

A light N wind texturing up the corners by 0730, and a deepish 1.74m high tide at 0745 was adding a significant fullness factor. Swell at sea was 2.3 metres mainly from the ESE at 8.5 seconds. At Dee Why the combo was delivering chest to shoulder plus sets along the beach and maybe a touch smaller at the point. Quality looked okay for now, but maybe as the tide runs out we’ll see a little improvement in energy levels. That said, the south corners are going to chop up as the N-NE wind starts come up into the 20-25 kt range. Water is a balmy 23C, but yesterday’s Beachwatch was showing ‘pollution possible’ at most beaches south from Newport.
As always, I’m looking forward to seeing the wisdom of the Goat concerning our prospects for the coming week, so be sure to check back later.

Fun looking size at the point 0715

Bit of a peak up the beach from Kiddies

Mid-Steyne 0815

Weather Situation
A low pressure system lies near New Zealand, while a ridge across Victoria extends is pushing east to southeast winds across most New South Wales waters. A surface trough should drift westwards across southern and central waters today, ahead of a firming of northeasterly winds across all coastal waters Thursday morning as a high moves eastwards across the Tasman Sea. The next trough and southerly change are expected to affect southern and central parts of the coast from Thursday afternoon, extending to the northeast coast during Friday.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northeasterly 20 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore during the morning. Winds turning northerly 15 to 25 knots in the morning.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 to 2 metres around midday.
1st Swell
Easterly 1.5 to 2 metres, tending northeasterly during the evening.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Friday 26 February
Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots, shifting southerly in the morning. Winds tending southeasterly afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres in the morning.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre developing offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Saturday 27 February
Winds
East to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots, tending east to northeasterly in the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to below 1 metre in the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 50% chance of showers.


Grey skies and glassy little bumps

Posted on February 24th, 2021 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Light wind and on again off again rainy skies overhead as Wednesday started. Wind was coming lightly from the SW and swell at sea was 1.8 metres from 160° at 9 seconds, but the high tide at 0700 was enforcing fat and full conditions along the beaches. Yesterday’s head high sets at the magnets have disappeared. And right now, I’m not seeing anything terribly encouraging in the swell models. It doesn’t look like going flat at least, but it could struggle to get much above waist high. Here’s hoping the Goat spies something I’ve missed when he casts the runes tomorrow…
Have a great Wednesday!

Pretty clouds this morning

Sunny break at glassy Manly

Mid-Steyne set

Fun size sets at Manly

Spectacular skies and glassy

Caught behind at Dee Why

Weather Situation
A low pressure system lies near New Zealand, while a ridge across Victoria extends is pushing east to southeast winds across most New South Wales waters. A surface trough should drift westwards across southern and central waters today, ahead of a firming of northeasterly winds across all coastal waters Thursday morning as a high moves eastwards across the Tasman Sea. The next trough and southerly change are expected to affect southern and central parts of the coast from Thursday afternoon, extending to the northeast coast during Friday.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots shifting northeasterly in the morning. Winds reaching up to 25 knots offshore in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
East to southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers.

Thursday 25 February
Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northeasterly 20 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore during the morning and early afternoon. Winds turning northerly 15 to 25 knots in the late morning.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, tending northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the late afternoon and evening.

Friday 26 February
Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots shifting south to southeasterly during the morning. Winds tending east to southeasterly about 10 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending northeasterly 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Rough, rugged and ragged

Posted on February 23rd, 2021 in Surf Reports.

Hello Friends,

Checked out the point and grabbed the attached pics. There are still some overhead sets in the mix and although the wind is south, you can see it’s not too badly messed up yet. The chop is definitely moving in though. Early birds got the best of it. There might be better protection and less frequent waves at the Bower.

0745: Swell’s gone around to the south along with the wind. The latter was blowing 14-22 kts before 0800, while out at sea the swell 2.7 metres at 8 seconds apart coming from 174°. Tide was high at 0610 and will bottom out at 1305.

Weather Situation
A low pressure system lies over the western Tasman Sea while a high pressure system over the Bight extends a ridge into western New South Wales. This pattern is bringing fresh to strong southerly winds to most coastal areas today. During Tuesday and Wednesday the low is forecast to move away to the southeast while the ridge extends to the Tasman Sea, causing winds to ease and turn east to northeasterly. The next trough and southerly change are expected to affect southern and central parts of the coast near the end of the week.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
Southerly 20 to 25 knots.
Seas
2 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 50% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Wednesday 24 February
Winds
South to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots shifting northeasterly in the late morning and early afternoon. Winds reaching up to 25 knots offshore in the late evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
2nd Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers.

Thursday 25 February
Winds
Northeasterly 20 to 30 knots turning northerly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers.


Thumping east swell

Posted on February 22nd, 2021 in Surf Reports.

Hello Friends,

Update 0900

North Steyne, no takers

South Steyne rippy

Bower busy and mostly short rides but fun size

Bomb cleans up south Steyne

EARLIER: Experienced riders only today. Swell is 2.2 metres at 11 seconds from the east.

Wave faces head high to 2x overhead on bombs at best exposures.

Grabbing the board and the camera, so will see what I see.

Tide dropping to the low at 1210.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
Winds
South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots offshore. Winds increasing to 20 to 30 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly 2 to 3 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.


Lumpy and smooth on Sunday morning

Posted on February 21st, 2021 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Swell is down slightly from yesterday, but still coming from the east at 1.6 metres with a period of 9-10 seconds. Wind before 0900 was out of the SSW at about 4-5 kts. As the pictures show, there were a fair number of people in the water at the point and along the beach. From where people are sitting, I’d expect sets to be in the shoulder high range, but that said, it may be quite a wait between sets. Quality looked to be ok, but nothing amazing. If Sunday’s your window of opportunity, I’d go for a look.

Tide is dropping to the 0.7 m low tide at 1100. It was spitty when I grabbed the pics and we could see anywhere from 5-15mm of rain as we head to a high of 28C.  Water is on 23C according to Beachwatch. Water quality could be suss near the lagoon exits, particularly when the tide’s around low.

Tomorrow is looking kind of interesting. Swell’s expected to get into the 2-3 metre range from the east and the wind should be S-SW and light for the early session. Here’s hoping!

Lot of waiting around  at the point

Lumpy peak up the beach

Weather Situation
A broad low pressure trough lies off the northern New South Wales coast, with a low pressure embedded within it that is forecast to deepen later today. This allows for south to southeasterly winds to strengthen through northern and central parts with strong winds and large waves possible for today and Monday. The southern parts remain northeasterly due to a high that is pulling away and tend southerly from Monday and strengthen to strong winds.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Winds
East to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots offshore. Winds tending south to southeasterly during the day.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Monday 22 February
Winds
South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots offshore. Winds increasing to 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly 2 to 3 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Tuesday 23 February
Winds
Southerly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
Easterly 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres in the afternoon.
2nd Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Cloudy.


Tricky conditions

Posted on February 20th, 2021 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Swell has faded a little overnight to around 1.7 metres from 96° (east) at about 9 seconds apart. Wind early was out of the SW at 4 kts under solidly overcast skies. Tide is currently dropping to the 0.7 m low at 0940. There was a band of rain showers out to sea, and the Bureau tells us we have a 90% chance of 5-10mm of the wet stuff later. We’re heading to a high of 28C, so looks like a sticky one coming up.
Conditions were glassy before 0700 and set wave faces were shoulder plus. Quality wasn’t dazzling though. Northy looked pretty good, and there were some crunchy looking dredgers at Surfrider Gardens, but around at Dee Why, the point looked waist to chest and the beach was chest to shoulder, but the big crowds were waiting a fair amount of the time and having to deal with high shutdown to makeable ratios.
Going by the models (and what the Goat says) it would seem we can expect solid east swell and light wind early through Monday. Midweek looks like continuing swell, but southerlies, but the am sessions Thr and Fri currently look somewhat hopeful.
Go well!
 

Near the lugga, after a long wait, a brief section

Busy, busy at Dee Why

Casual at the point

Short but intense at Surfrider Gardens

…three riders were approaching…


 
Weather Situation
A broad low pressure trough lies off the northern New South Wales coast and a high is drifting across the southern Tasman Sea. Southeasterly winds will tend northeasterly along central and southern parts today as the high drifts further east and then stalls. The trough is forecast to deepen and form a low pressure system over the western Tasman Sea, which may bring strong south to southeasterly winds and large waves to parts of the coast from Sunday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
East to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to southeasterly in the morning. Winds reaching up to 20 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore by early evening.
Swell
Easterly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 90% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Sunday 21 February
Winds
East to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending south to southeasterly in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Easterly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Monday 22 February
Winds
South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots during the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny. 50% chance of showers