Posts in At large

Longer period swell this morning?

Posted on February 12th, 2019 in At large.

Nothing much at Campus Point in Goleta this morning

California Street, Ventura: set catches longboarders out of position


Hello Friends,
Overnight it looks as though the 1.3 metre SE wind swell you had yesterday has gone from 5-6 sec to 11-12 seconds from the east. With any luck there’ll be some chest plus faces to be had at optimally aligned spots. Wind was pretty light early and coming from the SW, but as the day heats up to the predicted high of a scorching 37C, it’ll pick up and swing to the SE later. Ocean temp was 22C yesterday, so probably the same again today. Tide is low at 0800 and then back to high at 1400.

Apart from being quite a bit cooler tomorrow, it also looks as though the long period stuff will fade out and it’ll be back to choppy and gutless again. The interesting stuff on the models of a few days ago has also faded and it now looks as any size will be confined to the far north coast…

Santa Barbara is still micro, but there’s slightly more energy south of here in Ventura and on down the coast to the Mexican border. Up north in Santa Cruz it looks like fun head to head plus at magnets like Steamer Lane…

Have a great day!

Bit of size up north. Steamer Lane, Santa Cruz

Weather Situation

Fresh northeasterly winds extend across the Waters ahead of a strong southerly change forecast to move through southern parts of the coast later today, and the remainder during Wednesday. A high pressure system over the Bight will slowly move east and strengthen during the second half of the week, and extend a ridge to the coast in the wake of the southerly change.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Sunny.

Wednesday 13 February

Strong Wind Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots tending south to southwesterly before dawn then tending southeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the late afternoon. Winds reaching up to 30 knots early in the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre by early evening.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Thursday 14 February

Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning easterly below 10 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending easterly around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Not much in CA or SYD but…

Posted on February 11th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

A warm (27C) mostly sunny day coming up for Sydney this Monday and then hot tomorrow. 1.3 metres of 9-sec SSE wind swell out at sea early this morning and a light westerly as of 0530. The wind should swing to the north by daybreak or shortly thereafter and then as the day warms up, it will go around to the NE as it ramps into the 20-25 kt range.
Tide’s low at 0710 and high again around 1315.
Surf prospects don’t look exceptionally interesting, but you might find a little waist-ish bump at spots that like a lot of south.
Some of the models show swell perking up tomorrow – so for once, there could be waves on a hot day. Beyond that there seems to be the prospect of an extended period of east swell from late in the week. What isn’t clear at this point is if you can expect to see much in Sydney or if it’ll be hitting the far north coast only…
We’re seeing grey skies, the odd spot of rain and a small, weak west line here in Santa Barbara. There appears to be a touch more activity up at Santa Cruz, but it’s not exactly pumping.

Micro lines and no takers on a showery Sunday morning at Campus Point, Goleta

Dodgy water, tiny lines for longboarding California Street, Ventura (Surfline)

Weather Situation
A weak high pressure system lies over the western Tasman Sea. Light coastal winds under the influence of the high will turn north to northeasterly and freshen in most areas today ahead of the next cold front. This front is forecast to push a southerly change through the region later Tuesday and Wednesday.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Winds reaching up to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres around midday.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Tuesday 12 February
Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore early in the morning.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
East to northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Sunny.
Wednesday 13 February
Winds
Northerly 20 to 30 knots tending south to southwesterly during the early morning then southeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Southerly below 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Micro Saturday for Sydney

Posted on February 9th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Early risers encountered almost no wind this morning. Unfortunately, the tiny gutless east wind swell is looking awfully feeble. About the best you can hope for is a gentle takeoff on a waist plus lump that will subsequently end a few seconds later as you slow down and sink out as it turns into low energy froth.
The wind will pick up soon as it builds into the 20-25 kt range from the Northerly quarters ahead of a strong southwest change this evening. You have a hot (33C) day coming up too.
The MHL buoy was seeing less than a metre of 7-sec easterly wind chop at 0400. The south change overnight doesn’t promise any improvement in surf prospects, although tomorrow will be much cooler – so there is that.
Tide is high just before noon today.
Outlook is pretty ordinary if the swell models are to be believed. There seems to be some hope for an easterly pulse midweek, but right now it doesn’t look like being a big one, plus there could be south wind with it…
California continues to bump along at the very small end of the surfability range. Locally here in Santa Barbara there’s nothing, but if you go south to Ventura, there look to be some longboardable lines at C-Street. Sadly, the water down there is probably quite unsafe due to the rains of a few days ago. And, more rain is due from late today…
Herewith a couple of postcards:

Faded away to nothing at Campus Point near Goleta CA

California Street dodgy water lines

Weather Situation

A high pressure system to the east of New Zealand is moving slowly east and will maintain a ridge to the north coast today, while a cold front approaches from the southwest. This front will bring a vigorous south to southwesterly change to southern and central waters later today, and to northern waters Sunday morning. A high pressure system will slowly track east from the Bight in the wake of the front, reaching the western Tasman late Sunday with an associated an easing of winds over New South Wales waters.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Gale Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots tending south to southwesterly 25 to 35 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre around midday.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Sunday 10 February

Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast

Winds
South to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots, decreasing to 15 to 25 knots during the morning. Winds tending south to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the late afternoon and evening.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing below 1 metre by early evening.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
East to northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Monday 11 February

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 knots during the morning.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Another warm one coming up

Posted on February 8th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

The forecast says 30 degrees and a 70% chance of a shower this afternoon for Sydney. There was a 1.4 metre bump coming from the E at 9 seconds apart in the wee small hours. Wind was faintly from the NE at daybreak and tide was heading toward a high at 1120. Ocean is 22C.  My guess is that there could be some weak little waist-ish bumps to be had at open stretches before the wind gets up.

Here in Santa Barbara the weather is bright and sunny and cool with a light SSE onshore and, as the pic below shows, no wave energy to speak of. Way up north from here at Santa Cruz they’re getting some scrappy looking shoulder plus stuff, and down south in San Diego they’re seeing waist plusses. But overall, the California coast is very much between winter pulses.

Have yourself a top old Friday everyone!

tiny dribble at Campus point in Santa Barbara this morning

Weather Situation

 

A high pressure system to the east of New Zealand is moving slowly east and will maintain a ridge to the north coast over the next day or so. A trough looks set to bring a weak southerly change to southern parts of the coast later today. Another stronger southerly change is expected along southern and central coastal areas on Saturday before shifting through northern parts of the coast Sunday morning. A high pressure ridge will extend from the Bight in the wake of the trough, with a new high centre becoming established in the Tasman Sea later on Sunday.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
1st Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening.

Saturday 9 February

Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the afternoon then shifting south to southeasterly 20 to 30 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Swell
East to northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.

Sunday 10 February

Winds
Southerly 20 to 30 knots becoming variable about 10 knots during the day then becoming east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending easterly below 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Thursday tiny bumps

Posted on February 7th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

From the look of the various cams early, there isn’t much going on wavewise for Sydney. Wind was light from the northern quarters as the day got started under mostly clear skies. It’ll pick up later this morning as it settles to the NE. Swell looks short period and knee to maybe occasionally waist on the biggest ones. Tide’s coming into a 1.74 m high at 1045. As of 0400 the MHL buoy was seeing 1-2 metres of 8-sec stuff from the east (124 degrees). Beachwatch hadn’t reported in at time I wrote this, but I’d expect water will still be around the 21-22C range. Should be mostly sunny with a high of 28.

Today’s the Goat’s forecast, so it’ll be interesting to see if he thinks there’s any hope for a noticeable improvement in your prospects…

Sorry no pic, but maybe later I can grab a postcard to share!

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea is bringing east to northeasterly winds to New South Wales waters, and will maintain a ridge to the north coast over the next few days as it moves east. A trough looks set to bring a weak southerly change to southern parts of the coast on Friday. Another stronger southerly change is expected along southern and central coastal areas on Saturday before shifting through northern parts of the coast on Sunday. A high pressure ridge will extend from the Bight in the wake of the trough, with a new high centre becoming established in the Tasman Sea on Monday.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
Northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Friday 8 February

Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast

Winds
North to northeasterly 20 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore during the day.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.

Saturday 9 February

Winds
North to northwesterly 20 to 30 knots tending southeast to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the morning then tending northeast to southeasterly 15 to 25 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Weak and tiny here and there

Posted on February 6th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Looks like a nice sunny summer morning in Sydney with light NE breezes but only the faintest of wind swells making itself felt. If you can dial expectations down to ankle to knee, you should be about in line with what’s on offer. Ocean temp according to Beachwatch is sitting on 22C. High tide is a 1.74 at 1010 and water quality should be good everywhere. At 0700 the MHL buoy was seeing less than a metre from the SE at 8 seconds apart.

The lowly conditions don’t look like improving in the near term. I guess the good news is that if you’ve found something worthy of your time, it should pretty much be the same again tomorrow and beyond for three or four days. For what it’s worth, mid-month is looking hopeful for a run of decent size swell from the easterly quarters…

Meanwhile, here in California we’re experiencing brisk weather and surf remains really sorry. I went down to the nearest view of the sea and grabbed you a couple postcards…

Passing shower between the mainland and Santa Cruz Island

The spot I learned to surf at a mere 50 years ago…

Sydney Coastal Waters Forecast: Broken Bay to Port Hacking

No warnings for New South Wales

Forecast issued at 4:10 am EDT on Wednesday 6 February 2019.

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea is bringing east to northeasterly winds to New South Wales waters today. The high will drift slowly east during the next day or two, while maintaining a ridge towards the north coast. A trough looks set to bring a change to southern and central parts at the end of the week, before stalling and decaying in the north as a new high develops over the Tasman Sea.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
North to northeasterly about 10 knots tending east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the morning.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm during the morning and afternoon.

Thursday 7 February

Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Friday 8 February

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots tending northerly during the morning.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.

 


Back to Cali

Posted on February 5th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

I’ve returned to California for family reasons and so will be doing the over-the-horizon thing through to March. So, here goes…

Checking the swell situation this morning in Sydney and I can see that at least where the size and period are concerned, it’s not all that different from southern California. As of 0500 the MHL buoy was seeing 1.5 metres of 5-sec period wind chop mainly from the southern quarters. Checking the local cams, it’s as I’d expect given the numbers – ie unsurfably tiny.

Not that it matters much given the dire outlook for today’s waves, but your wind was out of the south at 8-12 kts and tide was coming into a pretty swampy 1.74m at around 0935. There’s a 40% chance of a shower and it should get to 28 along the coast in Sydney today.

Tomorrow looks to be similar but maybe possibly with a tiny bit more bump at south magnets early.

And now your first postcard…

Here’s a screenshot from the Surfline cam down at Ventura just now. The ocean is a foul looking grey brown from LA to Santa Barbara thanks to storms swelling all the creeks with run-off. I didn’t see anyone in the water – which is hardly surprising!

Junky tiny gutless lines in ocean brown from run-off

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the eastern Tasman Sea has been directing east to northeasterly winds over most of New South Wales waters. A weak trough has recently brought a southerly change to southern and central waters. This trough will dissipate today as a second high pressures system over the Bight moves east, reaching the southwestern Tasman Sea by Wednesday. This new high will promote easterly winds over New South Wales waters on Wednesday, then northeasterly winds on Thursday as it drifts further east.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots, tending southeasterly inshore.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm late this afternoon and evening.

Wednesday 6 February

Winds
East to northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon then decreasing to about 10 knots in the late evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers in the morning and early afternoon.

Thursday 7 February

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon.

Drizzly morning for the runners

Posted on February 2nd, 2019 in At large.

Curly looking sizable but too messy at 0630Hello Friends,

Out for a drive this morning to check it conditions ahead of the ABC 702 Weekend show gig. As you can see, there’s not much to recommend in the way of surf. Curly was a stormy looking mess and the Collaroy Narrabeen stretch was equally unattractive. The only place I saw anyone in the water was at the point, and there again, quality was not good. Plus, the water wasn’t too attractive either. If you’re thinking of chasing lumps at Dee Why or Curly, be warned that the Sydney Morning Herald Sun Run and Cole Classic are on, so lots of streets are blocked – and of course there are swarms of fit looking types racing about.

Wind was ESE at 9-10 kts and it was drizzling steadily when I grabbed the snaps. Swell out at sea was 2.6 m from the SSE at 9 seconds apart. First tide of the daylight hours is the high at 0745. Ocean is sitting on 21C according to the Bureau. It looks like showery weather all day with a high of 27 along the coast.

Have a top old Saturday everyone!

 

Scrappy looking conditions at the point 0630

Lumpy and bumpy

Not much sun for the Sun Run starters at Dee Why

South Narrabeen washing machine

Narrabeen stretch looking unattractive


Saturday morning surf

Posted on January 26th, 2019 in At large.

Lots of folk in the water at Northy 0630

Hello Friends,
As of 0630 it was hazy along the beaches, but there were waves at places that like NE wind swell. Northy was well populated with folk chasing the gentle looking waist to chest high little waves but South Narrabeen was empty, even though it sort of looked surfable. Around the corner at the Longy to Dee Why stretch the best options seemed to be between No Mans and the Pole. Size was a touch smaller than Northy and, if anything, it also appeared to be even weaker.
Despite the NE look to the line, the MHL buoy was reporting a metre at close to 12 seconds from the SE (128 to 148°).
Although it was pretty glassy when I grabbed the pics, half an hour later at 0700 North Head was seeing 8-11 kts of NNE wind. We can expect that to dial up some more ahead of a south change this afternoon.
Tide was low at 0710 and will be back to a 1.7m high at 1320.
Beachwatch says the water should be fine pretty much everywhere and averaging 21C. We’re due to reach a high along the coast of 33 C and there’s a poor air quality alert for elevated ozone pollution. UV is a fierce 13 and sun protection is a must from 0900 to 1730.
If the forecast models have it right, tomorrow will play out much like today, but there might be a touch bigger as we get a mix of NE and south energy. The morning looks the best shot too.
The rest of the week is shaping to be roughly the same as far as waves go (although waves will be more east), but wind will be a factor in the afternoons (nothing unusual in that).
Have a top old Australia Day everyone.

No takers at south Narrabeen 0630

Soft and small at Kiddies

No Mans peak promises but fades to mush a second later

The Runner

Weather Situation
A trough over the southern waters will extend to central parts of the coast during the day today, with an associated weak southerly change. A second southerly change is likely to move through the southern half of the coast on Sunday, before stalling along the Hunter coast later Sunday and weakening by Monday evening. A ridge remains firm over the northern parts of the coast for the next several days, and is forecast to extend across the entire coast on Tuesday, generating north to northeast winds.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching 30 knots offshore early in the morning, turning southerly in the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.
Sunday 27 January
Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots shifting southerly 15 to 20 knots in the late morning.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres by early evening.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Monday 28 January
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots tending north to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1 to 2 metres offshore.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy.


Faint hopes but not flat everywhere

Posted on January 19th, 2019 in At large.

Thunderous action at Long Reef

Lots of folks out for a surf at Dee Why

Hello Friends,
Light west breeze early with a very small east-ish looking wind bump. The MHL buoy was seeing 1.2 metres of 5 sec chop from 106° and tide was coming into a 1.82 metre high at 0722. There were little knee plus faces south of about Carparks at Northy and down toward south Narrabeen. It was pretty inconsistent looking and weak. Around the corner at the Longy to Dee Why stretch a few bods were waiting hopefully for the odd fluffy ankle snapper at the north end. There were more folks in the water at the Dee Why end, but it was only slightly bigger than Longy.
Outlook is not too exciting for the rest of the weekend. If the models are right, it’ll be about like it is now or even smaller over the next 4-5 days but there might be a bump late in the week. Unfortunately if the waves do push up, it looks like being strong onshores that cause the increase.
Have a top old Saturday everyone!

Plausible bumps at south Narrabeen

A few bumps from south of Northy

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge to the northwest, directing north to northeasterly winds over the northern New South Wales coast. A trough will bring a southerly change to southern waters this morning, moving through central areas during the day as the Tasman high weakens. This change may just reach the northern border on Sunday before decaying as a new high shifts from the Bight to the Tasman Sea later Sunday and Monday, bringing a return to generally northerly winds. The new high is expected to remain dominant until another trough arrives mid-week.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 20 to 30 knots, tending south to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre by evening.
2nd Swell
South to southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Sunday 20 January
Winds
South to southeasterly about 10 knots becoming easterly in the middle of the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Monday 21 January
Winds
East to northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots during the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


 

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