Posts in At large

More lumpiness with okay size

Posted on March 6th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Another lumpy but surfable morning on tap. Sets at stand out spots should be delivering shoulder plusses, but while the wind was light northerly as I wrote this, the conditions are not going to be great. According to the MHL buoy the 1.8 metre, 11-sec swell was coming mainly from the SE, but there’s definitely some longer period NE component in the mix as well. I’d expect it to be more chaotic than clean.

Beachwatch posted a algal bloom warning yesterday, so depending on how the wind and swell affected it, there could still be problematic stuff in the water. I’d be taking a pretty close look before jumping in.

The light wind of the early session will give way to a 20-25 kt southerly this afternoon which will then dominate through to tomorrow morning. Swell’s supposed to come up with it, but you may want to wait until tomorrow afternoon when the NEr is due and possibly (depending on how short the period is) some interesting stuff could show in protected, southerly friendly north corners (not that there are many of those to choose from).

Santa Barbara has no waves to speak of today and by this afternoon another couple days of solid rain is due to arrive – so even if the swell comes up, the water will be horrible. All of this is academic where I’m concerned because tomorrow evening I’ll be on the 15 hour haul back home to Sydney. Hooray!

‘dozer overlooking the manmade peak it built at Goleta Beach

Overview of Campus Point this morning

Weather Situation

A slow-moving high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is extending a ridge towards the northern New South Wales coast, directing east to northeasterly winds. Winds in the central and southern parts of the coast are fresh to strong northerlies ahead of a cold front and associated strong and gusty southerly change, which is expected to cross the southern and central parts of the coast during Wednesday, then northern parts on Thursday.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots shifting southerly 20 to 25 knots in the early afternoon. Winds reaching up to 30 knots early in the morning and again in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening.

Thursday 7 March

Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast

Winds
South to southeasterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots early in the morning. Winds turning east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning, then decreasing to 1 metre around midday.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres around midday.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending easterly around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Friday 8 March

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Enough size but quality, not so much

Posted on March 5th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

It looks to be shoulder plus on sets at various places around the Northern Beaches this morning, unfortunately as anyone who’s looked outside knows, the wind was 10+ kts from the NE by first light as it heads to peak speeds this afternoon in the 25-30 kt range. Wind swell is 2 plus metres out at sea, but the period is mostly around the 6-second mark, so catching waves will be a real challenge – even if you don’t mind the blasting onshores. Tomorrow’s set to be more of the same and then on Thursday it’s due to go southerly – hard. Not the best outlook sad to say.

After a brief barely surfable pulse late last week, Santa Barbara is back to unseasonable microness as per the pic below of Campus Point earlier this morning. Looks like the next pulse will fill in around the time my plane leaves LA on Wednesday. Typical. Tell you what though, I’m really looking forward to Sydney’s warm water again.

Have a great Tuesday one and all!

 

Another too small to surf day at Campus Point in Goleta

Wind swell in an irrigation ditch on a windy afternoon, south of Salinas, California

Forecast issued at 4:10 am EDT on Tuesday 5 March 2019.

Weather Situation

A slow-moving high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is extending a ridge towards the northern New South Wales coast, directing east to northeasterly winds. Winds freshen and tend northerly today ahead of a cold front and associated strong and gusty southerly change, which is expected to cross the southern and central parts of the coast during Wednesday, then northern parts on Thursday.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast

Winds
North to northeasterly 20 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly 1.5 metres, tending northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Weather
Sunny.

Wednesday 6 March

Strong Wind Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots at times during the day. Winds shifting southerly 20 to 25 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending northeasterly 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Thursday 7 March

Winds
Southerly 20 to 25 knots turning east to southeasterly below 10 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon or evening.
1st Swell
Southerly below 0.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Easterly 1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Mess about in messy conditions today

Posted on March 2nd, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Looks like a messy but surfable day at most of Sydney’s beaches. Not amazing quality, but water’s warm and there are even a few shoulder high faces (briefly) to be had at better exposures. Swell at 0800 on the MHL buoy was showing 1.3 metres at 10 seconds mainly from the SE. Wind’s going around to the NE soon. Looks as though there should be fun ones again tomorrow am and with luck you’ll have options on Monday and Tuesday am as well.

I finally got in the water here today with a mate at a little spot west of Goleta that was picking up knee to waist plus glassy things. Fun on a long board although the water was around 15, so after awhile the 3/2 couldn’t keep me warm enough. Still, just the two of us, so that’s good. Tide was very low too.

Chest high sets and no one out west of Goleta, CA

Weather Situation

A slow-moving high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is extending a ridge towards the northern New South Wales coast. This pattern is expected to persist into next week, bringing east to northeasterly winds over the northern half of the coast, and north to northeasterly winds over the southern half of the coast. Winds in the south will freshen during the weekend as a cold front passes to the south.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Sunday 3 March

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers in the morning and early afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning.

Monday 4 March

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.

Take the mal for the early

Posted on March 1st, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Looks like a partly cloudy start to the day in Sydney with knee to waist and a bit bumps coming in for the morning session.  Swell’s about a metre from the east at 9 seconds apart, so we’re not talking heaps of power. But with something appropriate under foot, I’d say fun could be had in that 24C water. Tide’s coming off the high and is currently dropping to the midday low. Wind’s light NW for the early session but will gradually settle around to the NE as the day warms to 27.

Chad and Jeremy? The Goat’s quirky sense of humor is on display in this week’s surf outlook, which, I have to say sounds pretty fun. I’m particularly liking the final line about the further outlook as I shall be back to RealSurf HQ by next Friday.

In the meantime, my prospects for catching a wave here in Cali are not looking overly hopeful. As you can see from the Surfline postcards, the only place to be is 4 hours away down the coast today. I can’t believe that in 5 weeks at the end of winter there hasn’t been one quality day of surf within driving range of my location. Oh well, getting skunked is part of the surfing experience, so I remain philosophical – and looking forward to the warm water of home.

Best spot in CA this am: 6 people and chest high at Lower Trestles

California Street trying, but feeble and struggling to make knee high

Leadbetter point in Santa Barbara: hint of a soft little west line, but too small even for the usual surf schoolers

Sydney Coastal Waters Forecast: Broken Bay to Port Hacking

View the current warnings for New South Wales

Forecast issued at 4:10 am EDT on Friday 1 March 2019.

Weather Situation

A slow-moving high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is extending a ridge towards the northern New South Wales coast. This pattern is expected to persist into next week, bringing east to northeasterly winds over the northern half of the coast, and north to northeasterly winds over the southern half of the coast, freshening during the weekend.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
East to northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Saturday 2 March

Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning.

Sunday 3 March

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Could be fun early

Posted on February 28th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,
As of 0640 wind was light from the WSW and the MHL buoy was showing 1.3 metres of 8-sec SSE bump. Magnets should be in the waist to chest range and wind should be okay until late morning, when it’ll get around to the NE. Tide is dropping to a low at 1130.
Outlook is for there to be something surfable in the mornings for the next few days. The models are currently predicting an improvement to swell power from around Sunday. If they’re right, the front half of next week could be interesting at east swell spots, particularly in the mornings… wonder what the Goat’ll say on the topic…

Still waiting for swell in California, so herewith a few snaps from a train ride I took yesterday along the coast between Ventura and Santa Barbara.

The mighty Rincon slumbers on, waiting for the next swell

Homeless encampments like this one near California Street, Ventura are not uncommon on public land close to cities here.

The river that created the surf breaks at California Street

Weather Situation
A slow-moving high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is extending a ridge to the New South Wales coast. This pattern is expected to persist into next week, bringing east to northeasterly winds to the coastal waters. The winds will tend to the north and strengthen in the southern coastal waters later on Saturday and into Sunday as a trough approaches NSW.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Friday 1 March
Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.
Saturday 2 March
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Keen only need apply

Posted on February 26th, 2019 in At large.

Hello friends,
Swell energy in Sydney continued to fade overnight and at first light magnets looked to be maybe knee to waist – on the big ones. Wind was lightly offshore for the early and tide was running out to the low at 0900. You can expect a mostly sunny day with a high of 27 along the beaches. Water temp’s at 25C according to Beachwatch. In the middle of the night the Sydney MHL buoy was seeing 1.4 metres of 7-8 second stuff from the SSE (150 degrees).
With any luck, the swell shouldn’t fade to zero over the remainder of the week, but from the look of the models it may not be much above marginal at most places most of the time.
California’s wave drought continues. It seems to be pretty much flat from Santa Cruz to LA, but with some tiny knee plusses south from there to the border. There does however seem to be a slight hope for an improvement in coming days. Who knows, I may get in the water yet…

Upper Trestles weak and knee high on the big ones Surfline frame grab

Campus point, Goleta. Direness obtains

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is gradually weakening as a cold front passes to the south today and tomorrow. This will bring a southerly change to southern parts of the coast from late tonight and during Wednesday before a new high moves across from the west. The new high is then expected to stall over the Tasman Sea from late Wednesday, maintaining a ridge along the New South Wales coast for the remainder of the week.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Winds
North to northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres around midday.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Wednesday 27 February

Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots becoming easterly about 10 knots early in the morning. Winds inshore briefly turning southerly 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and early afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Thursday 28 February

Winds
Northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots during the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Please be awareWind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

Nearby Coastal Waters

Sunshine Coast Waters ForecastMoreton Bay ForecastGold Coast Waters ForecastNSW - Byron Coast - Coastal Waters ForecastNSW - Coffs Coast - Coastal Waters ForecastNSW - Macquarie Coast - Coastal Waters ForecastNSW - Hunter Coast - Coastal Waters ForecastNSW - Sydney Coast - Coastal Waters ForecastNSW - Illawarra Coast - Coastal Waters ForecastNSW - Batemans Coast - Coastal Waters ForecastNSW - Eden Coast - Coastal Waters ForecastVic - Central Gippsland Coast - Coastal Waters Forecast

The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:05 pm EDT Tuesday.

Product IDN11009


today

Posted on February 25th, 2019 in At large.

Surf’s still lumpy bumpy and horrible with tide too low at most places… and the wind is onshore.  Only for the desperates.


Lumpo Bumpo

Posted on February 25th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Looks like another scrappy you-could-surf-if-you-were-really-keen sort of day in Sydney. Magnet spots should deliver chest plusses, but the overall conditions are fairly marginal. For starters, the ESE wind was already 10-13 kts at 0730 under cloudy skies. As of 0400 the MHL’s directional spectrum chart for Sydney was showing a mix of NNE and SSE swell, with the latter very much dominating. First tide of the day is the low at 0755. You’re back to a moderate 1.4 m high at 1355. By then the Bureau says you can expect a light NE’r to have taken over from the SE stuff. Ocean temp is a very warm 25C according to Beachwatch, although run-off from weekend rain may put a question mark over water quality at some beaches.

The story in California remains dire for surfing. Weather is perfect but there is barely a hint of a wave from Santa Cruz south. Looks like the best place to be is somewhere in the vicinity of Trestles – again.

Trestles is likely one of the better spots for a wave this morning in California

Weather Situation

A high pressure system near Tasmania is drifting slowly east, as ex-Tropical Cyclone Oma continues northwards over the Coral Sea. Later today the high will shift to the central Tasman Sea, where it will linger during Tuesday. This system will weaken on Wednesday as a cold front passes to the south, allowing a trough to move along southern parts of the New South Wales coast, but will quickly be replaced by a new high moving across from the west. The new high is expected to be very slow-moving and should remain the dominant feature in the region for a number of days.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds
East to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots becoming east to northeasterly about 10 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly 2 to 2.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy.

Tuesday 26 February

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Wednesday 27 February

Winds
North to northeasterly about 10 knots becoming easterly during the morning.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Saturday Surf Report

Posted on February 23rd, 2019 in At large.
​T​he Bureau’s forecast is for TC Oma to move offshore a little and track north again for a couple of days. But Cyclones can change directions, as this one has, and are notoriously difficult to track​.​
In any event, the main swell we are getting in Sydney now, and the waves coming over the next couple of days will be from weather systems down south, so we’ll get southerly swell.  The problem is that accompanying those waves are southerly winds…
So while there will be waves today and tomorrow they will be messy and bumpy at places exposed to the south.
But there may be some opportunities at places protected from southerly winds, like the Manly- Queenscliff stretch… But if that’s any good it’ll be crowded.. and could be dangerous at lower tides. ​Anyone can slip on their board and end up in hospital or worse.​
Low tide was around 6am
High is around midday
Low again around 6.30pm
And there’s nearly one and a half metre difference between high and low tides at the moment with the full moon.
Water temp is around 22
​There’s about 2.5-4 metres of dead South swell offshore, but​ on the beach it’s currently around 1-2 metres, 2ish metres​ of messy bumpy waves at open beaches​ ​. It’ll increas​e through the day from South East​ but the southerly wind will also increase.
​Only chances are sheltered corners and not much will be getting into those.​
The outlook:

Sunday: 2-3, 3-4 metres at places exposed to the South  (but with SE winds, so bumpy messy uninviting etc)

Note the BoM’s warning: Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

{That will be at places that are exposed to the South}

Surf Life Saving NSW recommends only swimming at patrolled beaches and between the red and yellow flags.

{That’s if they’re up!  If the flags aren’t up, the beach is closed for reasons of public safety.  In which case unless you’re very experienced it will be best to stay out of the water}

Monday: 3-4 metres East South East

Tuesday: 2-3 metres East South East

Wednesday: 2-3 metres East North East, with sets (wind expected to be lighter.. might start to be ok)

Thursday: 2-2+ metres East North East

ALL SUBJECT TO CHANGE as the spinning tops move around

Take care. Stay safe.

​And s​peaking of Surf Life Saving…it’s always a good idea to know what to do if you or a mate need help in the surf, from a shark attack to resuscitating someone who has nearly drowned… and you can get the necessary info and training from a surf club.  But did you ever think that those skills can be used in situations away from the beach?

Recently a probationary surf club member successfully resuscitated a man who had a heart attack playing futsal at a local RSl..
Cain Byrnes of Avalon Beach SLSC had been training for only two weeks yet was able to save someone’s life.  The National SLSA surf club of the year will be running free training sessions for the public on CPR on 13 March 2019… details at www.avalonbeachslsc.com.au
Also check at your local surf club. As Nick Carroll says: surf clubs need surfers, and surfers​ ​need surf clubs. Both have a lot to offer each other!
Rog.

Choppy, bumpy, windy

Posted on February 23rd, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

As I often say on ABC radio when it looks like this, it’s a real doona day. Wind is sideshore from the SSW at 10-15 kts as of first light. But it’ll pick up and swing SE as the morning goes along. And that won’t help the scrappy 2.3 metre, 8-second, SSE swell. Not that it matters much, but tide is coming in this morning to a midday high.

Looks as though the Bureau expects some of that cyclonic oomph to appear tomorrow. Unfortunately the wind will be strong and SE for Sydney. Bad luck.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the globe, California is seeing just a tiny touch more swell around the place this morning. It’s now into the just barely surfable range at many spots but with sideshores. A few postcards…

Big excitement at the Pit, Santa Barbara

Ankle high surfin’ in Santa Barbara this morning

Tiny crowd for tiny waves, Friday at Trestles

Long boards ho! Ventura

just catchable at the Lane in Santa Cruz

Weather Situation

A strengthening high pressure system near Tasmania is drifting slowly east, while Tropical Cyclone Oma lies about 600km off the southern Queensland coast. This pattern is generating south to southeasterly winds over New South Wales waters, strong to gales force in the north due to the presence of Oma. Conditions should ease gradually on Sunday as Oma moves away to the north and the high shifts to the Tasman Sea. This high is expected to become the dominant feature in the region through the coming week, bringing a gradual shift from southeast to northeasterly winds in most coastal areas.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast

Winds
South to southeasterly 15 to 25 knots, increasing to 20 to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
Easterly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
2nd Swell
South to southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.

Sunday 24 February

Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Southeasterly 20 to 30 knots, easing to 15 to 25 knots in the morning.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres around midday.
1st Swell
Easterly 2 to 3 metres.
2nd Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing. Surf Life Saving NSW recommends only swimming at patrolled beaches and between the red and yellow flags.

Monday 25 February

Winds
East to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots tending east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
1st Swell
Easterly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, tending southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy.

 

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