Goin’ quiet

Hello Friends,

Light north breeze and a small, but not miniscule east wind swell for Sydney this morning. Dial the expectation-o-meter down pretty low and you should be able to talk yourself into a splash at your favourite beach break. Figure knee high to maybe waist on the bombs I’d say.

The Bureau sez: North to northeasterly 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots during the morning and 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.

Tide’s low around 0845, so the incoming push might help a bit.

Looks from the forecasts as though the next week will be pretty quiet wave-wise for Sydney. Seems as if all the interesting systems are going to stay well clear of the swell windows.

….
Your postcards from California show Campus point today. We actually had some shoulder high sets yesterday, but it’s faded to knee high this morning, so not sure that I’ll get wet on what is for me the first day of 2012… however, in a couple days time we’re due for the first big swell of the winter season, so I hope to have something more interesting to share.

(Below) The top of Campus point (so called because it’s within the boundaries of the University of California at Santa Barbara) is the main surf zone. It mostly breaks during the autumn-winter months when the swell is out of the NW. There are a number of distinct peaks, so it spreads the often considerable crowds out.

(Below) Poles is the next distinct break down from the point at Campus. As you may be able to tell from the pic, it’s a well-defined reef that can peel for a hundred metres or more if the swell is big enough. Super fun on a mal, but good for short boards when it’s firing.

(Below) Looking down the point from Poles. On really big swells (only a handful of times in a season), you can pick up a wave from Poles and take it all the way down to the corner at Goleta beach park! Jelly legs material.

Have a good one and Happy New Year!

SE all day every day…

Hello Friends,

Could the endless SE’r be giving it up soon? According to this morning’s marine forecast for the Sydney region, it should go around to the NE this afternoon. Meanwhile, at 0500 the swell was 2m from the SE with an average period pushing up toward 10 seconds. Not a bad set of numbers that. Those SE spots will be busy again I bet. But maybe this arvo after the 1240 high tide and with the breeze coming around to the NE, there’ll be a few fun options around the place.

***

Meanwhile in southern California, we’re still waiting for the energy levels to perk up again.

This morning’s postcard is once again from California Street in Ventura (about 50 kms south of where I am in Santa Barbara).

There’s heaps of swell up north for places such as Santa Cruz, but down this way it’s another day of knee to waist high mal waves at places that are picking up the swell. The forecast models show a couple biggish pulses lining up though. With luck we’ll get into the head high plus range mid-next week…

Go well!

Another southerly day ahead

Hello Friends,

At 0510 wind in Sydney was a steady 15 kts from the south. And it looks set to stay around that level all day. Primary swell is around 2 metres from the ESE with an average period of 8 seconds. Tide’s coming in and will hit high around 1100. And it’s another partly cloudy day coming up with a 30% chance of rain and a high in the mid 20′s.

Not exactly the best recipe for a decent surf, but if you’re extra keen there should be something to flop around in.

According to the models, there should be swell for the next few days in Sydney, but that stupid south to SE wind regime is going to be in force as well.

***

Have a couple postcards from California for you this morning. The first was taken from a webcam at Ventura’s California St Surfers’ Point. Little WNW lines were giving the crowds something to mess with on their mals and SUPs.

The second pic was taken yesterday arvo as myself and three mates began the half hour walk back to our cars from a spot called Seals just west of Goleta. The tide was super low, and because they’ve yet to have a solid winter swell, the kelp was incredibly thick. Indeed, most rides ended when your board hit a particularly huge lump and you were thrown off. Really annoying because there were some clean and juicy chest to shoulder high sets and it was dead glassy.

Very sad news in the paper this morning that Sean Collins has died of a heart attack. The guy almost single-handedly transformed surf forecasting and with it the way we practice our sport. The obit is worth a read.

Go well one and all!

Both sides of the pond have waves… but

The east swell continues

Hello Friends,

Hmmm. 3 metres of 9 second period east swell… that’s good. 20+ kts of southerly at daybreak… that’s not so good. Incoming tide to a big high just before 1000 too. Looks like the very protected south corners will be the shot. Everywhere else is likely to be pretty torn up by the southerly (which is set to blow all day).

According to the Bureau, we’re going to have southerlies in Sydney for at least the next 3 days. The swell should be around throughout, but by Thursday it’s expected to be more around to the SE.

Still, at least there are waves of some sort.

Here in Santa Barbara the weather is its usual perfect self (brilliant sunny skies, high around 20 and hardly a breath of wind), but Huey is keeping all the Aleutian surf monsters away from our swell window. Supposedly we’re going to have a little uptick this afternoon, but right now it’s only knee high at best around here. A couple hundred kms south at Huntington, they’re seeing chest high plus. And way up north in Santa Cruz, Steamer Lane is producing head high plus conditions. Oh well, what can ya do?

Have yourself a great day and I hope it includes a few waves for ya!

Happy for Christmas?

Checking it out from afar

Hello Friends,

Looks like another day of puny conditions for Sydney surfers. According to the MHL buoy, it’s about a metre from the SSE at 7 seconds out at sea. And there’s a light SE breeze for the early. The wind is set to go more to the NE later, but there’s no immediate prospect of improvement to surf prospects. Knee to waist, maybe…

Probably best to focus on holiday parties and such because surf prospects are distinctly ordinary for the next few days. Some of the models reckon there could be a significant boost to size for late Sunday into Monday as some NE energy develops up north and spreads southward into the Sydney region. Unfortunately it looks as though it’ll be accompanied by stacks of NE wind… so not too many clean options likely to be on offer.

Meanwhile here in So California the swell is bumbling along in the knee to waist high range at more exposed spots. However, there could be a small uptick on the weekend and then, if we’re lucky, some proper winter juice Mon-Tue-ish… one lives in hope!

Have yourself a great day!

Weekend warriors rejoice

Wish I was at the beach

Stay in bed Saturday morning, but maybe this arvo…

Midday update: Actual sunshine witnessed for the first time in days. And I can finally see the beach from the crows nest once more. Not all that fabulous looking it has to be admitted. And the water will be freshly topped up with a nice dose of street run-off. Swell has held just above the 2 metre mark from the ENE and the average period is creeping up toward the 8 second mark. So, if you don’t mind the possibility of playing host to some interesting organism or other, I’d say there should be a chance of a little something at exposed spots. Figure knee to waist with the odd bigger one.
Have fun!

Earlier I wrote:  Hello Friends,

Another thoroughly disreputable morning along Sydney’s beaches. Wind was blowing steadily and vigorously from the ENE at 20-30 kts. Visibility on the coast was about 300 metres and it was raining. If ever there was a morning to just roll over and go back to sleep, this was it.

The MHL buoy doesn’t sleep though. As the day got started, it was showing  the dominant wind swell energy coming from the east at about 7 seconds apart. Average size of the waves at sea pushed up a little overnight into the 2 metre range.

This morning’s rainy skies should clear away to a mostly sunny afternoon as the wind swings around to the north to NW. With any luck, that should mean a reasonable prospect of a wave of some sort for the late – in those semi-exposed north corners.

By then the tide will have well and truly dropped from this morning’s big high at 0830. Low’s around 1515, so there will also be a little tidal push to help things along for the late. You might want to pack the springy though because the NE’r is likely to have dropped the water temp a bit.

Looking ahead, tomorrow should see a continuation of the NW winds early, but these are due to track around to the SW and then go lightly southerly by nightfall tomorrow. Given the weak, local nature of the wind swell, I’d expect the energy levels to fade away pretty quickly too. Could be a little waist high wave early at spots that are unfazed by a very high tide.

Have yourself a top old day!

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds

North to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots tending northeast to northwesterly 10 to 20 knots by evening.

Seas

Up to 3 metres decreasing to 2 metres by evening.

Swell

Southerly about 1 metre tending easterly 1.5 metres later.

Weather

The chance of thunderstorms in the morning.

Sunday 27 November

Winds

West to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots tending southwesterly up to 15 knots around midday.

Seas

Up to 1.5 metres.

Swell

Below 0.5 metres tending easterly 1.5 metres from the morning.