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Dull and choppy looking this morning

Don — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 22:22:09 +0000

Hello Friends,

Sydney’s beaches are in for a pretty ordinary old day from the look of things. The ocean’s choppy and messy but there is a bit more of a line than yesterday and as a consequence a few bods are in the water chasing waist high lumps of junkiness. With low tide at around 0830 and a high around 1520, the optimal time for a lot of spots should be late morning. Unfortunately, the already dodgy wind situation is only going to get dodgier as the wind picks up a bit more and works around through the easterly quarters from the present SE to the NE. Sounds like a recipe for messiness all day long, but with a slight hope that semi-protected NE corners might possibly be worth consideration late in the day.

As for the long range outlook, I like the look of the Goat’s latest prognostications. The current run of the models is pretty supportive of his estimates too. I’ll have a look at the prospects tomorrow morning ahead of my usual 0730 702 ABC gig.

Have yourself a top old day!

The Bureau’s Friday morning Sydney forecast

Weather Situation
A high near Tasmania will move to the Tasman Sea today allowing winds to gradually tend to the east to northeast. A low pressure system is expected to deepen over South Australia today. The low should deepen further on Saturday and move southeast towards Tasmania with winds along the NSW coast becoming strong to gale force. The low will then move quickly into the southern Tasman Sea on Sunday allowing winds to gradually ease.
Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds: South to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots tending easterly during the day then east to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots by early evening. Seas: 1 to 1.5 metres increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres later in the evening. Swell: Southerly 0.5 to 1.5 metres.
Forecast for Saturday
Winds: North to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots. Seas: 2 to 3 metres. Swell: Southerly about 2 metres decreasing to 1 metre late in the evening.
Forecast for Sunday
Winds: Northwesterly 20 to 30 knots tending west to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots during the morning then tending westerly up to 15 knots during the afternoon. Winds tending west to southwesterly up to 20 knots during the evening. Seas: Up to 3 metres decreasing below 2 metres during the morning. Swell: Easterly 2 metres tending southeasterly during the evening.

Sharkcifica (Linda Mar)

surfergrrrl — Fri, 03 Sep 2010 03:48:00 +0000

Darren was already in the water south of Taco Bell with just a few others when I arrived, and I saw him get a nice shoulder-high left. When I said I was regretting that I'd left my gloves in the car, he assured me (correctly) that my hands would numb up in a few minutes. After a short chat, I excused myself and paddled to the kiddie-pool end of the beach at Boat Docks; I needed smaller waves to knock the kook out of my shortboarding. There was no one else around initially, and I couldn't help thinking about the shark attack on a sea lion a few days ago, just outside the lineup right there in Pacifica. Nearby surfers had seen a lot of thrashing with bloody water thrown into the air, reportedly an 18-25 foot great white shark violently taking her lunch. (Yes, 18-25 feet! Several news organizations reported this statement completely uncritically, while my fast Wiki search revealed that if true, this was one of the largest sharks ever. Doesn't the media do even the most basic fact-checking anymore?!)

As I paddled alone across opaque waters still darkish in the new day, fingertips brushing seaweed, my shark-riddled thoughts turned to a dream I had last night, of coming to Linda Mar to surf but finding it infested with dozens of sharks, jumping and roiling the water, and hurling themselves out of the ocean to snap at people on the beach. When I sprinted away from the snapping jaws of an 18-25 footer, I woke up and looked at the alarm clock: almost time to get up to drive to Linda Mar for dawn patrol. On actual arrival, I saw no sharks, and took this as proof that there were none (as I must or I would have to stay on the beach). Fortunately, it seems many of the usual hordes haven't put the death of the sea lion behind them; the crowds stayed light as the sun rose in the sky.

Interestingly, Surfline's best board for today looks rather like the one I took out. I've been riding my 8'3" Magic hybrid longboard almost exclusively since I got it last December, and it's quite a switch dropping straight to my 5'8" Xanadu Rocky hybrid shortboard. My experience this morning was almost like starting over on the shortboard, but with an accelerated learning curve. At first I was a bit tippy just sitting in the lineup, my duck-dives were ineffectual, and my pop-ups were horrible, sloppy and too far back on the board. But soon I was catching whitewater and standing for milliseconds, then getting into the wave closer to the peak and riding a little longer. By the end, I managed a decent short ride. Yes!

With nothing on offer this weekend but more short-period windswell, I'm planning to concentrate on getting up to speed with the shortboard to be ready for winter. I think Magic has honed my surfing skills, but it's time to get back to driving a sports car. Zoom, zoom!

Surfline: 2-3 ft+ with fair conditions. Clean, peaky lines with some scattered, workable corners. Occasional slightly larger sets. Patchy coastal fog with light winds. Buoy 46012: (Wave) SWELL: 6.6 ft at 9.1 s NW / WIND WAVE: 1.3 ft at 3.8 s WNW / WVHT: 6.9 ft / APD: 6.9 s / MWD: 315° / 07:00a PDT; (Met) WSPD: 8 kts / GST: 10 kts / WDIR: 310.0° / ATMP: 52.7° F / WTMP: 55.4° F / PRES: 1010.5 hPa / PTDY: +0.8 hPa / 06:50a PDT.

Wind, Chop and slop.

Surf Photos of You — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 22:36:39 +0000

Long Reef 8am; The wind is gusting from ESE at around 10 knots causing the conditions to be extremely sloppy. 1 – 2 foot but with the wind an increase in size should be expected. Sorry surfers, this is it for the day. Good day for…. something else.

Surf Photos of You

Enthusiasms, In Byron Bay Today.

Big Ben — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 15:46:32 +0000

Despite the lack of form, the warm spring weather mixed with some crystal clear water and a few small but opportunistic lumpy bits of wind swell. Had the local crew enthusiastically dissecting whatever was on offer, in Byron Bay today. Spring can do that to you, especially when it’s been a cold winter. Then all of sudden it’s like Huey flicks a switch and it’s warm and sunny in the bay. Suddenly a surf you would look twice at, can fill a bloke with enthusiasms, In Byron Bay Today.

Warm but very small

Don — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 22:26:41 +0000

Hello Friends,

Another day of littleness up and down the coast of NSW. Dee Why was showing nothing substantial this morning under grey skies. The Sydney MHL buoy is detecting barely half a metre of 7 second period SE windswell. There is some 13 sec component in amongst it, but I can’t see any sign of larger stuff.

It’s not looking too promising for any improvement to the wave situation today in the Sydney region. There is some hope for just barely marginal waves tomorrow morning at south swell spots and then maybe an option or two on Saturday if we get some long period stuff as is being predicted for our region by some interpretations of the latest WAM data.

This monring’s WAMs are projecting the aforementioned little uptick on Saturday, followed by a dip on Sunday then another minor upward bump late Monday into Tuesday. But at this stage there doesn’t look like being anything much above the chest to shoulder high range at exposed spots over the coming 4 to 5 days…

Go well folks!

The BoM says:

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the northern Tasman Sea will move slowly to the east over the next couple of days. A trough and associated southerly change has weakened in the north. A second trough is expected to move along the coast late Thursday and Friday with an increase in the southerly winds associated. A low pressure system is expected to deepen over South Australia on Friday as another high pressure system moves into the southern Tasman Sea. The low should deepen further on Saturday and move southeast towards Tasmania with winds along the NSW coast becoming strong to gale force.
Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds: Southerly 5 to 10 knots becoming light during the morning then tending southerly up to 15 knots during the afternoon. Winds increasing to southerly 15 to 20 knots by early evening. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening. Swell: Southerly about 1 metre. The chance of thunderstorms during this afternoon.
Forecast for Friday
Winds: South to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots tending east to northeasterly during the afternoon. Seas: 1 to 1.5 metres. Swell: Southerly about 1 metre.
Forecast for Saturday
Winds: Northeasterly 20 to 25 knots tending north to northeasterly 25 to 35 knots during the morning. Seas: 1.5 to 2 metres increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning then increasing to 4 metres during the afternoon. Swell: Southeasterly about 2 metres tending easterly 1.5 metres during the evening.