Posts in Goat’s Forecast

TG’s Surf Forecast

Posted on August 17th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 17 August 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

The weekend looks like being pretty wild and wooly, if a Low does what it’s expected to do off the south coast.  Surf will be up but should be only for the fit and experienced, if it’s rideable at all with a lot of wind behind it for most of the time. Otherwise, everyone else can stay out of the water and do something else till early in the week when it should be more manageable.

Friday: Slow and smallish for most of tomorrow daytime, but starting to build later in the evening/ night at places that get dead South swell

Saturday: Up into the 3-4 metre region dead South, with enough of a period to see waves at eg DY Point and The Bower, but with windy Southerly type winds and cool air temps

Sunday: Let’s call it 4-5 metres early on, easing back to say 3-4 metres later, and with those windy S type winds and cool air temps continuing

Monday: 3-4 metres South East early on, with NW winds knocking it down slowly to 2-3 metres later

Tuesday: Easing back through the 1-2 metre range dead South with occasional SE sets

Wednesday: Around 1 metre or so South East

Thursday: Around 1 metre dead South.

Vale Steve Parkes. Rest in peace.

TG.

In the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Aug 17 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Aug 17 06:30:00 2017

Winds

Oh, how they’ll blow>>>

https://www.windy.com/?-33.861,151.198,5

In the Sea

Water temp is currently 18, but should warm up a bit as the southerly swell comes through.

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2016-2017.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Windy. Clear.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Clear. Winds westerly 25 to 35 km/h decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 10:20 am to 2:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

Friday 18 August

Summary
Min 12
Max 16
Windy. Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds westerly 35 to 50 km/h.

Large and powerful surf conditions in the afternoon and evening are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Sun protection recommended from 10:30 am to 1:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

 

Saturday 19 August

Summary
Min 9
Max 16
Windy. Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower along the coastal fringe, near zero chance elsewhere. Winds southwesterly 25 to 40 km/h turning southerly 30 to 45 km/h in the middle of the day then tending south to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h in the evening.

Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Sun protection recommended from 11:10 am to 1:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Sunday 20 August

Summary
Min 7
Max 18
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Areas of morning frost in the outer west. Winds southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h turning south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning then becoming light during the afternoon.

Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Sun protection recommended from 10:30 am to 1:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

Monday 21 August

Summary
Min 9
Max 19
Cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Light winds becoming northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning then becoming light during the evening.

Tuesday 22 August

Summary
Min 10
Max 21
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming west to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 23 August

Summary
Min 9
Max 20
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Winds westerly 15 to 20 km/h.

Thursday 24 August

Summary
Min 8
Max 20
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds.


TG’s Surf Forecast from Afar

Posted on August 10th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 10 August 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

From the wilds of Mullumbimby on the Far North Coast where TG has his long range over the horizon binoculars out, to see what’s coming your way and his…

Managed to jag a little wave at Byron yesterday before the swell started to fade up here. Water is quite cool here at around 19, which is little different to Sydney.

The weather looks like being High on Highs over coming days, warm and N NW winds up to Wednesday when it’ll be Hot.  Similar up here on the coast, but ever so slightly inland it’s much hotter…around 27 in Mullum town centre today, but cool overnight with early mornings of around 2 with an apparent temp of say zero.

Surf prospects down there over coming days look a little better than up here, but hey a change is as good as a holiday, and TG is having a change of scene and a holiday.

Sydney:

Friday: a slight and brief uptick from today, in the lower regions of the 1-2 metre range as the swell direction turns more South East

Saturday: down to around 1 metre or so at dead South spots

Sunday: similar

Monday: up a little into the 1-2 metre range at dead South places

Tuesday: ditto

Wednesday: down the around 1 metre or so South East

Thursday: 1 metre or less at dead South spots.

Up here:

Similar but pretty much dead South swell which will take it straight past the points that I like. Doesn’t matter.

In the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Aug 10 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Aug 10 04:30:00 2017

In the Sea

Water temp in Sydney is around 19, and similar at Byron…Warmer water off the coast just needs to swirl in.

image

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 24
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny, just some high cloud at times. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 10:30 am to 1:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Mostly sunny.Sydney24
Mostly sunny.Penrith24
Mostly sunny.Liverpool24
Mostly sunny.Terrey Hills22
Mostly sunny.Richmond24
Mostly sunny.Parramatta24
Mostly sunny.Campbelltown24
Mostly sunny.Bondi23

 

Friday 11 August

Summary
Min 14
Max 23
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds northerly 15 to 20 km/h turning westerly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.

Sun protection recommended from 10:50 am to 1:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Saturday 12 August

Summary
Min 9
Max 21
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds westerly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 11:00 am to 1:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Sunday 13 August

Summary
Min 10
Max 21
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 10:50 am to 1:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Monday 14 August

Summary
Min 10
Max 24
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds.

Tuesday 15 August

Summary
Min 12
Max 24
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming northerly 15 to 20 km/h later.

Wednesday 16 August

Summary
Min 17
Max 28
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds northerly 15 to 20 km/h turning northwesterly during the morning.


TG’s Surf Forecast

Posted on August 3rd, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 3 August 2017:

Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Surf

Offshores, some surf, then not, some surf, then not…

Friday: down from today in the 1-2 metre range East South East, with the westeries knocking it down more

Saturday:  more ditto East

Sunday: 1 metre or less East

Monday: ditto

Tuesday: coming up – briefly – in the 1-2 metre range at places open to dead South swell; some might even get into some protected corners

Wednesday: going down in the 1-2 metre range dead South

Thursday: down more, 1 metre or less dead South places.

Meanwhile here’s some reading for you to keep you entertained on the smaller days…

Some nice early shots of surfing at Palm Beach that Alison has put together, in the first of a series she’ll be running on Surfing over coming weeks.

http://www.pittwateronlinenews.com/history.php

Here’s one little gem from 100 years ago, now consigned to history:

SURF BOARDS PROHIBITED. At the last Meeting of the Waverley Council an application was received from Mr. F. Foran for permission to use  a surf board at Bondi. It was decided to Inform the applicant that the practice of surf shooting by means of a surf board was one that should not be encouraged, as It caused Inconvenience  and annoyance to the public. The Inspectors were ordered to see that The practice was discontinued.SURF BOARDS PROHIBITED. (1916, April 19). Evening News(Sydney, NSW : 1869 – 1931), p. 6. Retrieved from http://nla.gov.au/nla.news-article115838277

In the Sea

Water temp is around 19

image

Tide

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2016-2017.pdf

In the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Aug  3 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Aug  3 06:30:00 2017

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.835/151.208?-34.354,151.208,8,m:cILaknb

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Rain at times.
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain, becoming less likely later tonight. Winds north to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h tending north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 10:40 am to 1:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Friday 4 August

Summary
Min 10
Max 19
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h tending west to northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h in the morning then tending north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 10:50 am to 1:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

 

Saturday 5 August

Summary
Min 9
Max 20
Wind easing. Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h tending west to northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 11:10 am to 1:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Sunday 6 August

Summary
Min 10
Max 21
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds north to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 11:00 am to 1:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Monday 7 August

Summary
Min 10
Max 18
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h turning westerly 25 to 35 km/h during the morning then decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h during the evening.

Tuesday 8 August

Summary
Min 8
Max 19
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h turning southwesterly during the morning.

Wednesday 9 August

Summary
Min 6
Max 20
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds westerly 15 to 20 km/h.

Thursday 10 August

Summary
Min 8
Max 22
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h later.


TG’s Surf Forecast

Posted on July 27th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 27 July 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

We’ve had some good conditions this week and some days of pleasant surf.  It popped up again today with the MHL buoy showing peaks of 3-7 metres  before dropping back to 2-4 metres dead South at sea later today.

Weather forecast is for continuing offshore conditions till Sunday, then southerlies Monday to Thursday.

Surf outlook is for waves of some sort for the week ahead~~~~~~~~~~~~

Friday: down from today, in the 1-2 metre range at places that like dead South swell, with some little sets, and getting knocked down thru the day by windy offshore wind, before coming up a little later at dead South places

Saturday: down to around 1-1+ metres dead South places

Sunday: small waves, 1 metre or less, for Heidi to have a little paddle on her birthday 🙂

Monday: smaller, with a little teasing pulse from the SE from time to time

Tuesday: might be up a little say 1-1+ or into 1-2 metre rnage at dead South places if a Low expected to form Monday off the South Coast tracks as currently expected, but who can say for sure

Wednesday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range at dead South places (ditto)

Thursday: in the 1-2 metre range South East, before turning North East later from the wind.

Have fun! But keep your eyes open, especially if you’re in the water early in the morning, or late in the evening (neither of which has become a good idea these days, unless you’re happy to be mistaken for something else) see below

TG.

From Wednesday:

Surf club: At around 5:20pm the restaurant manager alerted ABSLSC and the Club rang the shark alarm. The 8 or so surfers that were still out at South Av and the 2 at North Av all paddled in on the next waves. An onlooker on the beach ran up to the restaurant to raise the alarm.
This is the 3rd report of a Great White at Little Av we’ve been told recently.

From: Dorsal Shark Reports – Australia

Public Shark Report: NSW – SYDNEY – LITTLE AVALON. 17:20, 26 Jul 17, 2m, Great White, Sighting from shore, Liv and Emma were sitting on the rocks, watching their friend who was surfing, when they saw a great white shark breach just behind him. They were able to see the white belly and mouth of the shark.

The girls urgently called their friend in to shore who confirmed seeing something darting around underneath him but assumed it was a dolphin. Onlookers also saw the shark.

Thanks for the report Liv and Emma!

In the Sky

Look at all those squiggly lines, going round in circles ~~~~~~~~~~~~what can they mean?? TG’s Handy Guide for You: The Hs mean Happy days for the weather… The Ls can mean possibly Large wind and surf when it goes the right way.

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jul 27 06:00:00 2017 AUTC

And aint this purdy to look at>>>>

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Jul 27 08:30:00 2017

Wind

https://www.windy.com/?-33.900,151.200,5

In the Sea

Water temp is slowly creeping down… now around 18-19

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2016-2017.pdf

Weather from The Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Mostly clear.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly clear. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 11:50 am to 12:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Friday 28 July

Summary
Min 10
Max 21
Possible morning shower. Windy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Winds northerly 15 to 20 km/h shifting west to southwesterly 30 to 45 km/h during the morning then decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h in the late afternoon.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

 

Saturday 29 July

Summary
Min 7
Max 21
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Areas of frost in the outer west in the early morning. Winds west to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn.

Sun protection recommended from 11:20 am to 1:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Sunday 30 July

Summary
Min 12
Max 26
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 11:10 am to 1:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Monday 31 July

Summary
Min 13
Max 20
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming northeast to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then tending southeast to southwesterly during the evening.

Tuesday 1 August

Summary
Min 10
Max 18
Possible morning shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Slight (20%) chance of a shower during the morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Winds southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h tending southerly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 2 August

Summary
Min 7
Max 18
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny morning. Medium (40%) chance of showers later in the day. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h.

Thursday 3 August

Summary
Min 10
Max 18
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming northeasterly 25 to 35 km/h during the day.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on July 20th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 20 July 2017:

Seven day outlook for Sydney:

What an interesting week ahead.  Even if you’re not going in the water it should be fun to watch.

Currently 3-4 metres offshore SSW but late today there were waves around 2 -2+ metres or so at places open to the South. Waves all week of varying size and mostly offshore conditions.  Should be interesting.

But no place for beginners, people who aren’t fit, and O Fs.

Friday: up from today, say 3-4 metres at dead South places and enough period to get into protected corners

Saturday: still around that size but South East and more oomph in the sets and more getting into protected corners

Sunday: easing back a little to 2-3 metres but still with long period oomphy sets

Monday: the offshore winds should knock it back a bit, but say 1-2 metre range dead South places

Tuesday: coming up again in the 1-2 metre range dead South, with solid period sets that’ll mean it should get into protected corners

Wednesday: something similar

Thursday: similar size and period but South East so it may appear bigger

Stay safe.

TG.

Up in the Air

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jul 20 06:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Jul 20 07:30:00 2017

Down in the Sea

Water temp

is hanging in there at 19-20

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2016-2017.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Windy. Mostly clear.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly clear. Winds west to southwesterly 35 to 45 km/h decreasing to 25 to 35 km/h in the late evening.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Friday 21 July

Summary
Min 8
Max 18
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Frost in the west at night. Winds west to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h tending south to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening.

Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

 

Saturday 22 July

Summary
Min 4
Max 19
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Patchy fog in the outer west in the early morning. Frost in the morning, mainly in the west. Light winds.

Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Sun protection recommended from 11:40 am to 1:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Sunday 23 July

Summary
Min 7
Max 22
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning.

Sun protection recommended from 11:40 am to 12:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Monday 24 July

Summary
Min 10
Max 20
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning west to southwesterly during the morning.

Tuesday 25 July

Summary
Min 7
Max 20
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds west to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h.

Wednesday 26 July

Summary
Min 9
Max 22
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h turning westerly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning.

Thursday 27 July

Summary
Min 9
Max 19
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds west to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast – with some help from Josh and Ellie

Posted on July 13th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Friday 14 July 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Le quartorze juillet! And what does that mean???

That’s right..It’s Friday! …And the weekend is tomorrow…. And the school hols are rapidly coming to an end.. And Le Tour is on … Oh, And bien sure …It’s La Fête nationale en France!!! 🙂

What about the surf !!???

Some more westerlies and light winds for the next few days mean the surf will be small to smaller… before the waves building up from the westerly winds rushing across the Great Southern Ocean swing around the bottom right corner of the continent and some start coming up the NSW coast.

Saturday: 1 metre or less South East

Sunday: less than 1 metre at dead South places

Monday: ditto

Tuesday: ditto

Wednesday: ditto at first, then starting to come up from dead South (actually parallel to the coast)

Thursday: coming up at dead South places say 2 metres or so, with solid sets

Friday: if it goes as currently expected could be around 3-4 metres at places that get dead South swell.  We’ll know more next week.

In Air

MSLP Analysis for Fri Jul 14 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Fri Jul 14 05:30:00 2017

Wind

https://www.windy.com/-33.835/151.208?2017-07-20-00,-34.353,151.210,8,m:cILaknb

In the Sea

Water temp is around 19-20

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2016-2017.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Friday

Summary
Max 18
Becoming cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Becoming cloudy. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the late afternoon.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Becoming cloudy.Sydney18
Becoming cloudy.Penrith18
Becoming cloudy.Liverpool18
Becoming cloudy.Terrey Hills18
Becoming cloudy.Richmond18
Becoming cloudy.Parramatta18
Becoming cloudy.Campbelltown18
Becoming cloudy.Bondi18

 

Saturday 15 July

Summary
Min 10
Max 18
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming west to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Sunday 16 July

Summary
Min 5
Max 17
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Areas of morning frost in the outer west. Light winds.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Monday 17 July

Summary
Min 7
Max 20
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Tuesday 18 July

Summary
Min 11
Max 21
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning westerly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 19 July

Summary
Min 8
Max 18
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning westerly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning.

Thursday 20 July

Summary
Min 8
Max 17
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Winds west to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h tending south to southwesterly during the day.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on July 6th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 7 July 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

As luck would have it, my back has decided to get twingey from an old injury… and my ankle is doing the same from a separate old injury.  I’m resting them both  from the rigours of surfing atm so they don’t get more aggravated.  I’m already aggravated enough for both of them!  I know the hipbone’s connected to the thighbone, etc etc so that isn’t helping matters, but they were two separate injuries to start with. What is particularly galling is that my back has started its current session because it’s winter and I stepped up my morning back exercises to strengthen it!  I can hear many, many voices out there saying: I know what you mean!

All of which brings me to what lovely weather we’ve been having…Shorts and T shirt.  One day this week we even had a max of 20, but that was deceptive because the NW wind was fresh and it cooled the apparent temp to 14 and 15 at times.  I think the cool breeze helped tighten up my ‘well used’ muscles around my injuries.

Lovely weather usually means small surf.  And it looks like there’s more lovely weather ahead . So what do you think that means for the surf ?  Yep that’s right, great waves for the schoolkids on hols… Might even get to chest high, for the 8 year olds 🙂

Be happy for the 8 year olds.  Everyone else, do other things.

Friday: down from the little uptick this arvo at dead South places,  to around 1 metre or less

Saturday: ditto or smaller

Sunday: ditto

Monday: and ditto

Tuesday:ditto, but a SE change later will start to bring windy, shortish period waves at dead South spots

Wednesday: Probably in the upper end of the 1-2 metre range at dead South places, with a wave period on the shorter side; time for the 8 year olds to be out of the water at those spots

Thursday: Upper end of the 1-2 metre range at places open to dead South swell, with some solid sets and some oomph to get into the protected corners.

Stay well.  Exercise with care!

TG

In the Air

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jul 6 06:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Jul 6 07:30:00 2017

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-33.879,151.251,5

In the Sea

Water temp is around 19 according to the MHL buoy

image

Tides

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Clear.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Clear. Light winds.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Friday 7 July

Summary
Min 7
Max 18
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming west to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the late afternoon.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

 

Saturday 8 July

Summary
Min 8
Max 18
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning westerly 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Sunday 9 July

Summary
Min 7
Max 18
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light during the afternoon.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Monday 10 July

Summary
Min 7
Max 18
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming westerly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning then becoming light during the day.

Tuesday 11 July

Summary
Min 7
Max 17
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 5 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny day. Medium (40%) chance of showers, most likely later in the day. Light winds becoming southeast to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 12 July

Summary
Min 9
Max 15
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 6 to 15 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning southerly during the day.

Thursday 13 July

Summary
Min 9
Max 17
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Light winds.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on June 29th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 29 June 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

An interesting, “vigorous” outlook.  Background from the BoM: “Weather Situation
A cold front will bring vigorous southerly change along the New South Wales south coast tonight extending to Sydney Waters Friday morning and to the far north coast in the afternoon. A low will develop within the front as it moves over the Tasman Sea.”

Some people are saying 10 foot swell on Sunday, some models have similar indications, while some others are not so sure.

As Nick Carroll and I were discussing  (Hey I don’t mind when Nick name drops TG) just last week at the Surf Life Saving Sydney Northern Beaches Awards of Excellence dinner (Oh, is that another name drop..more later*:)), the models have been a bit off at times lately and they don’t always get it right anyway.  But ain’t it grand that there are still some things in nature that just can’t be predicted.

The BoM’s supercomputer currently has the Low being shoved off pretty fast by the cold front moving from the west in the southern ocean at 40 knots = about 75ks an hour, just slowed to 35=65ks, so the Low/s should be mostly off NZ by late Saturday. Before it goes away, while it’s off the NSW south coast most of the swell that looks like being generated will have a very SW bent to it…. meaning it’ll be Nasty Big out in the Tasman, but closer to the coast, see below.. It all depends on whether the Low tracks as expected.  As I said tto Nick it always amazes me that the BoM can predict their movements at all. The way I see it, it’s like trying to predict what tangent a spinning top on a table might head off on. No change yet in the MHL Eden buoy 1.4-2.1 metres South South East, similar to the last few days.

TG’s best estimates right now for Surf, from examining the entrails, taking all things into consideration, and mixing in a good dose of judgement:

Friday: starting to show something at places that get dead South swell, say in the 1-2 metre range, increasing through the day

Saturday: about 2, maybe 3 metres at dead South spots with a reasonable period, so some might get into protected corners.  Bigger up the coast; big outside at South West Rocks and the State IRB Championships on the main beach might even see a ripple or two, but nothing the Av boys and girls couldn’t handle. Go Av!

Sunday: easing back a bit, say about 2 metres South East, still with a reasonable, eased back period

Monday: back more in the 1-2 metre range South East

Tuesday: 1 metre or less

Wednesday: a slight uptick at places open to dead South swell, somewhere into the 1-2 metre range

Thursday: in the 1-2 metre range at dead South places.

The Bureau is forecasting some more cool days ahead to sap your energy levels if you go out.  Water temp has cooled quite a bit since I went in earlier in the week, from 20 to less than 18 according to the MHL buoy.  Surf within your own limitations and Stay Safe.

* Nick and I were nominated by our respective surf clubs for different awards (Nick for Masters Athlete of the Year; me for Community Surf Safety Education in TG’s Surf Forecast!).  An honour just to be nominated. We weren’t successful as there were some pretty tough and worthy other club nominees. Well done to those who won the prestigious awards. Everyone had a good time, at least I did. 🙂

In the Sea

Colder water is creeping up the coast, with lots of whales hightailing it north for their annual hols.  So far today I’ve seen 16 just by having a glance every now and again, and just saw 4 more. They’ve happily cruising along, between 5 and 15 ks out.

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2016-2017.pdf

In the Sky

Latest chart

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jun 29 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-33.902,151.200,5

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 17
Morning shower or two.
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. The chance of morning fog in the west. High (70%) chance of showers during the morning, clearing. Light winds becoming west to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h in the evening.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Morning shower or two.Sydney17
Morning shower or two.Penrith18
Morning shower or two.Liverpool17
Morning shower or two.Terrey Hills15
Morning shower or two.Richmond18
Morning shower or two.Parramatta17
Partly cloudy.Campbelltown18
Morning shower or two.Bondi17

 

Friday 30 June

Summary
Min 9
Max 16
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the late afternoon then becoming southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the evening.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Saturday 1 July

Summary
Min 7
Max 16
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h tending southerly during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Sunday 2 July

Summary
Min 7
Max 18
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Monday 3 July

Summary
Min 8
Max 19
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming northerly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Tuesday 4 July

Summary
Min 11
Max 18
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.2 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds northerly 15 to 25 km/h turning northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning.

Wednesday 5 July

Summary
Min 9
Max 16
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.2 mm
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h turning south


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on June 22nd, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 22 June 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

The Low that’s been sending all those waves this week is slowly moving away to NZ.  If it continues to track as expected, it’ll still have an influence on the surf at most Sydney beaches for the next couple of days, after which those places open to dead South swell should be the go. Conditions look like being good with some offshore or light wind days until Thursday, for those who don’t mind the cool air temps.

Water temp is around 20, 21.

Younger people will be keen and strong enough to handle it all, while mature ladies and gentlemen will decide for themselves. You can work out the category you fit. Everyone should watch the surf for a while to check the set pattern before going out.  Have fun. Stay safe.

Friday: towards the upper end of the 1-2 metre range East South East, with sets from the East

Saturday: 1-2 metre range South East, with sets from the East

Sunday:  1-2 metre range at places that get dead South swell, and with some sets

Monday: down in the 1-2 metre range dead South, still with sets

Tuesday: 1-2 metre range at dead South places

Wednesday: around 1, 1+ metres dead South

Thursday: down, 1 metre or so dead South.

Weather from the Bureau:

Sydney Forecast

No warnings for New South Wales

Forecast issued at 4:20 pm EST on Thursday 22 June 2017.

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Mostly clear.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly clear. Light winds.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Friday 23 June

Summary
Min 9
Max 19
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Early fog patches, mainly in the west. Light winds.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]Saturday 24 June

Summary
Min 10
Max 18
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds west to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Sunday 25 June

Summary
Min 8
Max 18
Cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Light winds becoming northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Monday 26 June

Summary
Min 8
Max 18
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds west to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.

Tuesday 27 June

Summary
Min 8
Max 17
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds.

Wednesday 28 June

Summary
Min 9
Max 17
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Light winds.

Thursday 29 June

Summary
Min 9
Max 17
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely later in the day. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning southerly during the day.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on June 15th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.
Surf forecast issued Thursday 15 June 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:
Quick forecast…We know how changeable the weathef has been…so current poutlook is for Waves all week, mostly small to medium, but also with wind at times. The swell is likely to come up from due South on Monday but will mostly be going straight past because of the SSW direction. Down the next day, then up, then down again…Think I’m feeling seasick.
Friday: in the 1-2 metre range South East
Saturday: around 1 metre or so East, but with larger sets from the South East from time to time
Sunday: around 1 metre or less South East
Monday: coming up from the dead South outside, but not a lot on the beach..maybe 1-2 metre
range at places open to dead South swell
Tuesday: about 1 metre dead South places only
Wednesday: coming up from East…1-2 metre range with some power behind it
Thursday: down again to around 1 metre or so East.
Complex isn’t it….
Weather from the Bureau:

Bureau Home > Australia > New South Wales > Forecasts > Sydney Forecast

Sydney Forecast

View the current warnings for New South Wales

Forecast issued at 4:20 pm EST on Thursday 15 June 2017.

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Friday 16 June

Summary
Min 12
Max 19
Cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Areas of fog in the early morning. Light winds.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Saturday 17 June

Summary
Min 12
Max 19
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming southerly 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Sunday 18 June

Summary
Min 11
Max 19
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Patchy morning fog in the outer west. Medium (50%) chance of showers near the coast, slight (30%) chance elsewhere. Light winds becoming south to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Monday 19 June

Summary
Min 12
Max 19
Possible morning shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the morning. Winds southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h tending southerly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then becoming light during the afternoon.

Tuesday 20 June

Summary
Min 10
Max 19
Possible morning shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.2 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the morning. Light winds.

Wednesday 21 June

Summary
Min 9
Max 20
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.2 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming southerly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Thursday 22 June

Summary
Min 12
Max 18
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Light winds.


 

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