Posts in Goat’s Forecast

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on February 15th, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 15 February 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Hey, you know those Warnings on labels that you never read?… And those Alerts on things you just ignore???

Well here’s TG’s upfront Alerting Warning

The Surf Forecast below, particularly for later in the week is what is likely to happen IF Severe Tropical Cyclone Gita out in the South Pacific BEST TRACKS where she is currently expected to (Gita herself isn’t expected to come near Oz). IF SHE DOESN’T, the Surf here could turn out smaller. The BoM says that Tropical Cyclones have a reputation for being unpredictable.

And another thing… Current weather forecasts suggest more chopping and changing SE/ NE onshore winds.

So I wouldn’t get too excited about the Outlook for Wave Quality if the Big Waves do come.

Stay cool and Go with the Flow…

Friday: in the 1-2 metre range East; watch for the sets in the upper end of the range

Saturday: ditto similar

Sunday: ditto and up a little on the sets

Monday: similar

Tuesday: up into the 3-4 metre range East South East and sets (What did I tell you??.. see above)

Wednesday: 2-3 metre range East South East and sets (ditto?)

Thursday: 1-2 metre range South East 

Apropos nothing in particular, or maybe as a homage to possibly Big(ger) Waves, here’s a little something to enrich your education and entertainment experience…Learn something new each day
Tick off all those you’ve been to! And yes… there is a “Big Wave”!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia%27s_big_things

TG

Up in the Sky

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Feb 15 06:30:00 2018

There’s Gita…off to the right

Colour Forecast map for next 4 days

Down in the Sea

Water temp’s about 24

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Oh, here’s some more Large Surf warnings for you…

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Mostly clear.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Clear. Winds northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Friday 16 February

Summary
Min 20
Max 28
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny day. Slight (20%) chance of a shower at night. Light winds becoming south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then turning southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day.

Fire Danger – Very High

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

 

Saturday 17 February

Summary
Min 21
Max 27
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower in the early morning. Winds southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h turning northeasterly in the late morning and afternoon.

Surf conditions in the evening may be more powerful than they appear and are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing and swimming.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Sunday 18 February

Summary
Min 21
Max 29
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.2 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the evening. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Surf conditions may be more powerful than they appear and are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing and swimming.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Monday 19 February

Summary
Min 22
Max 27
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely in the evening. Light winds becoming east to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Tuesday 20 February

Summary
Min 21
Max 24
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. Winds southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light during the morning then becoming southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 21 February

Summary
Min 19
Max 24
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. Light winds.

Thursday 22 February

Summary
Min 19
Max 26
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on February 8th, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 8 February 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Some more warmish days ahead… See, Summer hasn’t really gone away.  And that means more Summer wave conditions.

The Bureau expects the wind to be chopping and changing directions from day to day, so that won’t help bring swell.

But there should be small waves for the right equipment at the right tides in the week ahead.

There should also be a little uptick, briefly, on Sunday.

Friday: about 1 metre or so East

Saturday: ditto

Sunday: up, briefly, into the 1-2 metre range East, then South East later

Monday: eased back say 1-1+ South South East

Tuesday: about 1-1+ East South East

Wednesday:about 1 metre or so North East

Thursday: around 1-1+ metres South East

Have a good one!

TG

Up in the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Feb  8 06:00:00 2018 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Feb  8 07:30:00 2018

 

 

Down in the Sea

Water temp when I was in earlier this week was beautiful…around 23.  The Noreaster has really been honking today, which has kept the coastal temperature to a pleasant level, but if it continues as expected over the next couple of days I wouldn’t be surprised if the water drops a degree or so before the next southerly change.

image

Weather from the Bureau:

http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/sydney.shtml


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on February 1st, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 1 February 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Where did January go??…

Where did Summer go???….

Well like the 60’s song said “That was yesterday,…and yesterday’s gone….” An oldie and a goodie. 🙂

 

Don’t fret… There’s been a lot of Summers since then.  And there should be some more of it later in the week.

Surf

Currently 2-4 outside from SSE, with periods from 6-11 seconds so only getting into places open to dead South swell.

I do wish the BoM would give the swell direction or likely impact areas in their large surf warnings, as TG helpfully suggested to them some time back.  Had a positive initial response, but clearly it hasn’t been taken on board, yet. Might help confused punters who can see it’s flat at Manly when there’s a large surf warning. But with the swell from Dead South and a shortish period, nothing is going to get in there.

Friday: about 2-3 metres at places open to dead South swell, with sets

Saturday: around 2, 2+ metres from more South East (so it’ll get into more places), with sets

Sunday: upper end of the 1-2 metre range South East, with sets

Monday: down slightly in the 1-2 metre range but still with some oomph in the sets

Tuesday: coming up from dead South and with a big period, so let’s call it 3-4 metres at places open to dead South swell, with some sets getting into sheltered corners

Wednesday: easing slightly into the 2-3 metre ange Dead South, with sets

Thursday: around 2 metres or so South East , with sets.

Stay safe. Know your limitations.

TG

In the Sky

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Feb  1 07:30:00 2018

MSLP Analysis for Thu Feb  1 06:00:00 2018 AUTC

Wind

https://www.windyty.com/

In the Sea

Water temp is around 23

image

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower near the coast. Winds south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the late evening.

Large and powerful surf conditions in the afternoon and evening are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Friday 2 February

Summary
Min 17
Max 24
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, more likely near the coast. Light winds becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the late evening.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Saturday 3 February

Summary
Min 18
Max 23
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 4 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning then becoming light in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Sunday 4 February

Summary
Min 19
Max 25
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Light winds becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning then becoming light during the afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Monday 5 February

Summary
Min 19
Max 26
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming east to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Tuesday 6 February

Summary
Min 19
Max 25
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 7 February

Summary
Min 19
Max 26
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds.

Thursday 8 February

Summary
Min 19
Max 27
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


The Goat’s Australia Day Long Weekend Surf Forecast

Posted on January 25th, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Saturday update

Practically nothing at the moment as the tide is too high but there might be a very small wave at lower tide.

Couple of SUPs, paddlers and hopefuls just bobbing around. But with the humidity at 95% being in the water is probably the best place to be. A light Noreaster is helping freshen up the air.

Tomorrow might be a bit better.

The Low in the Coral Sea (below) doesn’t look at this stage like it will bring much swell down our way, but there could be some up the coast around Tuesday.

Have a good one.

TG

Surf forecast issued Thursday 25 January 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

The surf has been small Noreast windswell for most of the week,  but at the right tides and right places there’s been just enough movement in the water to give kids on school holidays and other people some exercise while escaping the humidity.

And that situation looks like continuing through Monday~~~~~~~~~~~~at least it’s not flat.

After that it depends on what track a Low expected to form out in the Coral Sea takes… before a Southerly change cancels out whatever swell might be coming from that. It’s a dynamic atmosphere and ocean.

At this stage

Friday: around 1 metre East North East

Saturday: ditto maybe slightly more or less at times

Sunday: lower end of the 1-2 metre range East North East

Monday ditto

Tuesday: take your pick… either lower end of the 1-2 metre range East… or 2-3 metre range East

Wednesday: either ditto… or 3-4 metre range… before it’s impacted by a southerly change

Thursday: around the 1-2 metre range at places open to dead South with some larger sets.

Hope that helps with your planning 🙂

Have a Happy Australia Day!

TG.

Up in the Sky

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Jan 25 05:30:00 2018

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jan 25 00:00:00 2018 AUTC

Wind is here

https://www.windyty.com/

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 22ish

image

Tides are here

https://www.windyty.com/

Weather from the Bureau:

Sydney Forecast

View the current warnings for New South Wales

Forecast issued at 4:20 pm EDT on Thursday 25 January 2018.

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the west. Winds east to northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Friday 26 January

Summary
Min 22
Max 29
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the outer west. Winds northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn then becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Saturday 27 January

Summary
Min 23
Max 29
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the outer west in the afternoon. Winds east to northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Sunday 28 January

Summary
Min 23
Max 28
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Monday 29 January

Summary
Min 22
Max 28
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.2 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Tuesday 30 January

Summary
Min 21
Max 29
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely later in the day. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 31 January

Summary
Min 21
Max 24
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. Winds southerly 15 to 25 km/h.

Thursday 1 February

Summary
Min 19
Max 22
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 5 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. Winds southerly 20 to 30 km/h.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on January 18th, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Saturday update

Great conditions for the early… blue skies, no wind, waves around 1 metre or so with some a little bigger.

The tide is rising so bets to get in sooner rather than later.  Longboards SUPs best but energetic shortboard riders should be able to catch a few rides.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 18 January 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

The surf is finally starting to ease back after a week of large surf and onshore conditions that were not much use to most people… ‘all dressed up but no place to go’ springs to mind.

There’ll still be more (moderate) waves around for the coming week, albeit with light to stronger onshores on some days.

The water’s all been churned up and around, with garnishings of weed, gunk and whatever. Is it polluted?? TG’s simple rule is ‘if it looks dirty, it is dirty’.

Maybe your fave banks have been destroyed, or maybe improved…

Several things for you to discover for yourselves…

Friday: still going down but still likely around 2 metres or in the upper end of the 1-2 metre range South East, with some oomph there too, at places open the the South and smaller in corners sheltered from the South

Saturday: lower end of the 1-2 metre range South East

Sunday: in the 1-2 metre range South East

Monday: ditto but North East

Tuesday: around 1 metre or so North East

Wednesday: in the 1-2 metre range North East

Thursday: ditto

The Bureau is expecting some warmer days coming up, especially out in the western suburbs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGvKRa9VRiM&feature=youtu.be

So over the weekend there’ll probably be more people looking for somewhere to cool off along the coastline = more swimmers unfamiliar with surf conditions and looking to get into trouble, more parking space competition etc . On the other hand, they might all stay home!  Just another variable for you to consider in your plans, and for surf lifesaving people to consider in theirs…

Up in the Sky:

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Jan 18 05:30:00 2018

 

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jan 18 00:00:00 2018 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windyty.com/

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 22.

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 28
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon then becoming light in the evening.

Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Fire Danger – Very High

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 14 [Extreme]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Sunny.Sydney28
Hot and sunny.Penrith38
Sunny.Liverpool34
Sunny.Terrey Hills28
Sunny.Richmond37
Sunny.Parramatta33
Sunny.Campbelltown35
Sunny.Bondi24

 

Friday 19 January

Summary
Min 17
Max 31
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Hot and sunny. Light winds becoming easterly 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 14 [Extreme]

Saturday 20 January

Summary
Min 19
Max 31
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Hot and sunny. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Sunday 21 January

Summary
Min 22
Max 31
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Hot. Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Monday 22 January

Summary
Min 22
Max 35
Hot. Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Very hot. Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the west later in the day. Light winds becoming north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning.

Tuesday 23 January

Summary
Min 22
Max 27
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely later in the day. Winds northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h tending south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.

Wednesday 24 January

Summary
Min 21
Max 27
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


TG’s Surf Forecast

Posted on January 13th, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

 

 

Sunday Update

Don’t think you’re getting this treatment all the time… It’s just cause Don’s clearly busy on the other side of the Pacific.

When I first looked at my own little weather station at home it read 16 outside.  I thought it must be wrong, but the BoM says Sydney Airport on the coast right now is 17.8 with an apparent temp of 9.8!

While the sky is patchy as is the wind, at the airport it’s registering 52 kph gusts from SW.

The surf’s coming up but is messy.  Offshore it’s 3-6 metres from due South with 6-8 second periods.

The wind and the wave size will increase through the day. Showers, max 23 and ‘becoming windy’.

Have a good one doing something else.

TG

Saturday Update

For most of the NSW coast today, waves are in the 1-2 metre range from two swells East South East/North East…
In Sydney a southerly change in the afternoon means you should get in the water this morning if you’re thinking of looking for a surf.
The Southerly wind has already hit South Coast surf spots ….While people on the North Coast will have a bit more time to decide what they are doing… a fresh northerly is chopping up open beaches though making wave quality a bit ordinary.
But that change is expected to turn everything pear shaped on Sunday, so Saturday is definitely the day to go surfing in Sydney this weekend.
Currently overcast in Sydney with no wind or a light NW offshore just starting up. Max expected 33. High tide was just before 7am at 1.57m…going down now till Low at 1.30pm 0.56m.
And as per TG’s forecast below, there’ll be some solid swell pushing up along the NSW coast during next week but it looks like being for experts and the experienced only!
Sizes each day will depend on how quickly the Low down south moves off into the Tasman…
At this stage:
Sunday: strarting around 1-2 metres building up to say 2-3 m The BoM has a storng wind warning for winds up to 50kph on the coast in Sydney
Monday: 2=3 metres 3+ metres at dead South spots
Tuesday, Wednesday: 3-4 metres dead South
Thursday: Starting to ease back into the 1-2 metre range
All along the coast but all subject to the movements of the Low
Water temps today
Byron 22
Sydney 22, 23
Eden 22
Have fun!
Stay safe!

Friday Update

No significant change to the outlook below, so if you want a weekend surf I’d be looking at Saturday early on in the day.

The planned ‘Around the Bends’ Newport to Avalon, and annual Avalon Beach ocean swims scheduled for this Sunday by Avalon Beach SLSC, have been postponed to Sunday 8 April 2018, due to water safety concerns with the deteriorating weather and surf outlook for Sunday.

There’ll be some solid swell pushing up along the NSW coast from mid week onwards, but it will be for experts and the experienced only!

Stay safe everynone.

TG

Surf forecast issued Thursday 11 January 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Well, we’ve had some changeable weather, wind and smallish waves that were pleasant for some at times over the past week.

It looks like we’re going to get some more changeable weather and wind over the coming week with smallish waves at first.

But then, depending on what a Low that’s expected to form over Bass Strait does when it goes into the Tasman, we look like getting weather, wind and waves that’ll be not so pleasant for most people till possibly later in the week.

Lows have a habit of not doing what may be expected. You just can’t tell Mother Nature what to do. We’ll know more over coming days. At this stage TG can only go with what’s in his fogged up crystal ball.

Entries are open for the Around the Bends Swim from Newport to Avalon, and Avalon Beach Surf Swims this Sunday…

Details here for all you dedicated ocean swimmers…http://avalonbeachslsc.com.au/

Surf

Friday: around 1 metre South South East

Saturday: in the lower end of the 1-2 metre range South East/North East

Sunday: IF the expected Low moves as it’s expected and when it’s expected, then let’s say in the 1-2 metre range short period near to shore at places open to dead South at first, (bigger swell out offshore), with SSW swell and wind to start with, and then building into say the 2-3 metre range later on at dead South places …But all accompanied by windy S/SSW wind… so as it comes up the coast from way down South, NG for Sydney or the South Coast, and probably not much getting into the North Coats points.

Monday: ditto again re the Low(‘s) expectations… could be in the 2-3 , 3+ metre range with increasing wave period at dead South spots, (with SW/S/SE wind expected by the BoM)…still probably NG Sydney and South Coast; maybe North Coast?

Tuesday: ditto re Lowdown, say 3-4 metres of big period dead South swell (with SE wind)…probably NMG for most Sydney, South Coast; North Coast prospects looking better

Wednesday: ditto downLow, 4+ metres dead South (with light NE wind expected)… experts, experienced only for Sydney, South Coast, North Coast

Thursday: easing back to around 2-3 metres South East but still with solid wave periods

There you go.. Those glum people who weren’t looking forward to going back to work next week, now have something to smile about!

 

The rest of you: Try to enjoy!

TG

The Goat FAQ

Colour Forecast map for next 4 days

Forecast for the rest of Saturday

Summary
Max 33
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers, most likely during this afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and early evening. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h shifting south to southeasterly 25 to 35 km/h in the late afternoon then decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h in the evening.

Fire Danger – Very High

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

 

Sunday 14 January

Summary
Min 17
Max 23
Showers easing. Windy.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning. Winds southerly 25 to 35 km/h, reaching 50 km/h along the coast.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on January 11th, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Saturday Update

For most of the NSW coast today, waves are in the 1-2 metre range from two swells East South East/North East…
In Sydney a southerly change in the afternoon means you should get in the water this morning if you’re thinking of looking for a surf.
The Southerly wind has already hit South Coast surf spots ….While people on the North Coast will have a bit more time to decide what they are doing… a fresh northerly is chopping up open beaches though making wave quality a bit ordinary.
But that change is expected to turn everything pear shaped on Sunday, so Saturday is definitely the day to go surfing in Sydney this weekend.
Currently overcast in Sydney with no wind or a light NW offshore just starting up. Max expected 33. High tide was just before 7am at 1.57m…going down now till Low at 1.30pm 0.56m.
And as per TG’s forecast below, there’ll be some solid swell pushing up along the NSW coast during next week but it looks like being for experts and the experienced only!
Sizes each day will depend on how quickly the Low down south moves off into the Tasman…
At this stage:
Sunday: strarting around 1-2 metres building up to say 2-3 m The BoM has a storng wind warning for winds up to 50kph on the coast in Sydney
Monday: 2=3 metres 3+ metres at dead South spots
Tuesday, Wednesday: 3-4 metres dead South
Thursday: Starting to ease back into the 1-2 metre range
All along the coast but all subject to the movements of the Low
Water temps today
Byron 22
Sydney 22, 23
Eden 22
Have fun!
Stay safe!

Friday Update

No significant change to the outlook below, so if you want a weekend surf I’d be looking at Saturday early on in the day.

The planned ‘Around the Bends’ Newport to Avalon, and annual Avalon Beach ocean swims scheduled for this Sunday by Avalon Beach SLSC, have been postponed to Sunday 8 April 2018, due to water safety concerns with the deteriorating weather and surf outlook for Sunday.

There’ll be some solid swell pushing up along the NSW coast from mid week onwards, but it will be for experts and the experienced only!

Stay safe everynone.

TG

Surf forecast issued Thursday 11 January 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Well, we’ve had some changeable weather, wind and smallish waves that were pleasant for some at times over the past week.

It looks like we’re going to get some more changeable weather and wind over the coming week with smallish waves at first.

But then, depending on what a Low that’s expected to form over Bass Strait does when it goes into the Tasman, we look like getting weather, wind and waves that’ll be not so pleasant for most people till possibly later in the week.

Lows have a habit of not doing what may be expected. You just can’t tell Mother Nature what to do. We’ll know more over coming days. At this stage TG can only go with what’s in his fogged up crystal ball.

Entries are open for the Around the Bends Swim from Newport to Avalon, and Avalon Beach Surf Swims this Sunday…

Details here for all you dedicated ocean swimmers…http://avalonbeachslsc.com.au/

Surf

Friday: around 1 metre South South East

Saturday: in the lower end of the 1-2 metre range South East/North East

Sunday: IF the expected Low moves as it’s expected and when it’s expected, then let’s say in the 1-2 metre range short period near to shore at places open to dead South at first, (bigger swell out offshore), with SSW swell and wind to start with, and then building into say the 2-3 metre range later on at dead South places …But all accompanied by windy S/SSW wind… so as it comes up the coast from way down South, NG for Sydney or the South Coast, and probably not much getting into the North Coats points.

Monday: ditto again re the Low(‘s) expectations… could be in the 2-3 , 3+ metre range with increasing wave period at dead South spots, (with SW/S/SE wind expected by the BoM)…still probably NG Sydney and South Coast; maybe North Coast?

Tuesday: ditto re Lowdown, say 3-4 metres of big period dead South swell (with SE wind)…probably NMG for most Sydney, South Coast; North Coast prospects looking better

Wednesday: ditto downLow, 4+ metres dead South (with light NE wind expected)… experts, experienced only for Sydney, South Coast, North Coast

Thursday: easing back to around 2-3 metres South East but still with solid wave periods

There you go.. Those glum people who weren’t looking forward to going back to work next week, now have something to smile about!

 

The rest of you: Try to enjoy!

TG

The Goat FAQ

Up in the Sky

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Jan 11 01:30:00 2018

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jan 11 00:00:00 2018 AUTC

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 22 in Sydney, 25 Byron, 23 Eden

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 26
Mostly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Mostly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower in the morning. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the afternoon.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Mostly cloudy.Sydney26
Mostly cloudy.Penrith31
Mostly cloudy.Liverpool30
Mostly cloudy.Terrey Hills26
Mostly cloudy.Richmond30
Mostly cloudy.Parramatta29
Mostly cloudy.Campbelltown30
Mostly cloudy.Bondi23

 

Friday 12 January

Summary
Min 21
Max 28
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm in the outer west in the afternoon and early evening. Light winds becoming northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 14 [Extreme]

Saturday 13 January

Summary
Min 23
Max 31
Showers increasing.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 5 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Hot. Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon. Winds northerly 15 to 25 km/h shifting west to southwesterly during the afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Sunday 14 January

Summary
Min 18
Max 23
Shower or two. Becoming windy.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning southerly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning then increasing to 25 to 40 km/h during the day.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Monday 15 January

Summary
Min 17
Max 25
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Winds southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h turning south to southeasterly during the morning.

Tuesday 16 January

Summary
Min 19
Max 25
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Winds southerly 20 to 30 km/h turning southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 17 January

Summary
Min 18
Max 27
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h during the day.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on January 4th, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 4 January 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

There were some rideable waves in the lower reaches of the 1-2 metre range this morning for keen punters at some places open to pretty much dead South as a result of the strong SSE wind we had over the past couple of days, before the tide got into it. Boy that’s a long sentence for you to get stuck into if you want. Lower reaches ??? He’s talking in riddles.

But they’ve already eased back.  See… Shorter sentences make more sense and are easier to read. But I don’t have time to rewrite it more nicer.

What’s that you say?? …Just get on with it???

Quick summary for you… Small waves. Possibly some mal rides at the right tides, right places. Keep your eyes open for opportunities.  Enjoy the warm water and warmer weather. Watch the extreme UVs, plus a couple of days when the Bureau says there might be Tstorms, and take precautions. Stay cool. And keep smiling. (I know they aren’t sentences… Just consider them to be bullet points to start preparing you for the working and study world soon). Keep smiling I said!

Friday: maybe around 1 metre or so or less at places open to dead South

Saturday: ditto

Sunday: around 1 metre or so of North East windswell

Monday: ditto

Tuesday: ditto but a little bit bigger

Wednesday: about the same as Tuesday, maybe a touch more

Thursday: about 1 metre or so North East

In the Sky

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Jan  4 04:30:00 2018

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jan  4 00:00:00 2018 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windyty.com/

In the Sea

Water temp is around 22,23… nice

Lots of nice warm water up and down the East Coast, from Byron 26 to Eden 22.

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

The king tides (Highs over 2 metres) we’ve had over the past few days will gradually start to ease back. But they will still be high Highs and low Lows (say that quickly) for a while.

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 25
Cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers in the morning and early afternoon. Light winds.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Cloudy.Sydney25
Cloudy.Penrith31
Cloudy.Liverpool29
Cloudy.Terrey Hills25
Cloudy.Richmond31
Cloudy.Parramatta28
Cloudy.Campbelltown29
Cloudy.Bondi22

 

Friday 5 January

Summary
Min 18
Max 28
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Saturday 6 January

Summary
Min 20
Max 31
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Hot and mostly sunny. Light winds becoming northeasterly 25 to 35 km/h during the day.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 14 [Extreme]

Sunday 7 January

Summary
Min 23
Max 37
Hot and mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Very hot and mostly sunny. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming west to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning then shifting south to southeasterly 25 to 35 km/h during the day.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Monday 8 January

Summary
Min 21
Max 33
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 5 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Hot. Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers, most likely later in the day. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h tending northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning.

Tuesday 9 January

Summary
Min 21
Max 24
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h shifting south to southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning.

Wednesday 10 January

Summary
Min 21
Max 26
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


The Goat’s New Year Forecast

Posted on December 28th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 28 December 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Christmas drinks, Christmas dinner, Christmas Day, Boxing Day drinks and dinner, grandkids’ birthday parties, surfing, cricket, the Sydney Hobart, and now New Years Eve coming up… a veritable cornucopia of Summer Fun!  Hope you’re all keeping up OK.

The surf’s been mostly small, but there have been waves enjoyed by many, perhaps too many at times! at some places where the banks aren’t too bad, at the right tides. And the weather has been perfect(ly hot) on some days, to spend time in the warmish water.

It looks like more of the same into the first part of 2018… which ain’t all that bad ’cause you’ve got enough going on without over-exerting yourself in the surf.

A couple of gratis, gratuitous messages:

Watch out for extreme UV levels even on cloudy days at the beach… we don’t want the kids or you getting too much of it.

And

Watch out for people doing breaststroke going backwards in a rip, even on small days. There are lots of visitors around who haven’t any experience with the surf or rips, so you might like to share some of your knowledge with them, and you might even get a buzz out of helping them out of trouble.

Friday: in the 1-2 metre range North East windswell

Saturday: around 1 metre or so North East

Sunday: up a little at places facing dead South, say in the 1-2 metre range but onshore, so you can rest up for New year’s Eve

Monday: about 1 metre or so South East, so you can rest up after New Years Eve

Tuesday: about 1 metre or less dead South places

Wednesday: ditto

Thursday: ditto again

Have Fun! Stay safe on the roads and in the surf.

Happy New Year!

TG

 

Up in the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Dec 28 06:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Dec 28 07:30:00 2017

Wind

https://www.windyty.com/

Down in the Sea

Water temp is a pleasant 23, so you can comfortably stay in for hours, whether you want to or not waiting for a wave. Plenty of wind variations ahead so it shouldn’t get colder.

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds east to northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Friday 29 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 29
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower from the afternoon, most likely in the evening. Winds northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the morning then becoming northeast to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the early afternoon.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 14 [Extreme]

 

Saturday 30 December

Summary
Min 22
Max 30
Rain easing. Possible storm.
Possible rainfall: 10 to 20 mm
Chance of any rain: 95% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of rain in the morning. Medium (40%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon and early evening. Light winds becoming west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h in the morning then tending southeast to southwesterly 25 to 40 km/h in the afternoon or evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 14 [Extreme]

Sunday 31 December

Summary
Min 20
Max 24
Shower or two clearing.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Mostly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers in the morning, clearing during the afternoon or evening. Winds south to southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h shifting east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Monday 1 January

Summary
Min 20
Max 29
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon.

Tuesday 2 January

Summary
Min 21
Max 25
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning southeasterly during the morning.

Wednesday 3 January

Summary
Min 20
Max 25
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. Light winds.

Thursday 4 January

Summary
Min 20
Max 26
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


The Goat’s Christmas Surf Forecast

Posted on December 21st, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 21 December 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Will it be cold? Or will it be hot??

Will the surf be up? Or will it not???

Should I eat a little? Or should I eat the lot??

Should I go for a surf? Or stay in the cot???

There’ll be a bit of everything for you in the lead up to, during, and after Christmas… but not necessarily in the order you might desire them.

For the surf: in short it’ll be mostly small, except for a small pop up surf day on Christmas day !!! Yay, you sayl

But that looks like being accompanied by a cool southerly wind with occasional showers …

So if you want to… after seeing what Santa has left you under the Christmas tree, you can flail about in the wind and the water on your new toys without concern that they or you are not performing (“because of the conditions”), before getting stuck into the full traditional Christmas day of overeating, then zonking out. Perfect.

Friday: 1 metre or less South East

Saturday: pretty much ditto

Sunday: about the same but East North East. Bureau says chance of Thunderstorms so even though it’ll be a hot one, don’t stay in or on the ocean, or out in the open at the beach if they are near you

Monday, Chrissy Day: up, with wind and a shower or two, into the 1-2 metre range at places open to dead South

Tuesday, Boxing Day: down to 1 metre or less dead South, with wind and a shower or two, so you can relax some more

Wednesday: maybe 1 metre or so East/South East

Thursday: about 1 metre East

Have a Great Christmas!!.. Try not to overdo it.

And stay safe, in and out of the water.

TG

In the Ocean

Water temp has settled down to a comfy 21, 22

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

In the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Dec 21 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Dec 21 04:30:00 2017

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 24
Shower or two.
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Mostly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, becoming less likely in the evening. Winds southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the evening.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Shower or two.Sydney24
Shower or two.Penrith27
Shower or two.Liverpool26
Shower or two.Terrey Hills23
Shower or two.Richmond27
Shower or two.Parramatta25
Shower or two.Campbelltown26
Shower or two.Bondi21

 

Friday 22 December

Summary
Min 20
Max 26
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then tending northeasterly in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Saturday 23 December

Summary
Min 20
Max 29
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny morning. Slight (20%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Sunday 24 December

Summary
Min 22
Max 33
Shower or two developing.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Hot. Mostly sunny morning. Medium (60%) chance of showers in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon. Winds northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h tending southeast to southwesterly during the afternoon then tending northwest to northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Monday 25 December

Summary
Min 19
Max 22
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm during the morning. Winds southerly 25 to 35 km/h.

Tuesday 26 December

Summary
Min 18
Max 23
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. Winds southeast to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h tending southeasterly during the morning.

Wednesday 27 December

Summary
Min 19
Max 25
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


 

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