The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on August 29th, 2019 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 29 August 2019: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Surfing ??!! You’re joking!!  It’s freezing. the air is cold the water’s cold. Even the schoolkids and backpackers weren’t out today. It’ll be up at places open to dead South tomorrow but with wind too so do you really care?? Take a short break till it warms up.

Friday:  say a messy 2-3 metres or more at dead South spots

Saturday: in the 1-2 metre range East South East with S/SE wind

Sunday: 1-2 metre range East

Monday: 1-2 metres East and starting to get a few sets

Tuesday: 1-2 metres South East, coming up briefly from dead South

Wednesday: 1-2 metre range dead South easing back

Thursday: ditto easing back more, relaxing into a 28 degree day! But with an occasional set from South East to wake you up.

Have fun

TG

Up in the Air

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-34.069,150.815,5

Down in the Sea

Water temp is 17-18

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on August 22nd, 2019 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 22 August 2019: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Big waves today…

The offshore MHL buoy late today was showing 6 metres to off-the-scale-for-max-height (9+m), at 8-12 seconds. The S wind was blowing 50-60kph and the wind chill brought the temp down to 4 degrees.

The swell is from dead South (186 degrees – what’s dead South kids??), which means it’s “only” the side ripples that are coming onto Sydney beaches in sets.. But they are still large enough. I’d say 3-3+ metres on the sets…closing out across the bay in some big wave locations. At other places it might have looked ok for a challenge after school at first sight…

But kids.. Trust Uncle TG… Surf like this, in these conditions, is not to be messed around with.

If you’re caught out there on your own and an accident happens (and they do).. you are literally on your own.  Unlike the Big Wave contests you see on whatever you watch, there is no rescue service just hanging around waiting to go and get you if you get into trouble.

Think about it….

Anyhoo… Tomorrow should be bigger than today, then easing back gradually as the Low moves further away to NZ, with a few ups and downs till later in the week when it looks like coming up again…

Friday: let’s call it 4 metres, easing back to 3-4 metres at places that can get swell from dead South

Saturday: say around 2 metres on the sets at dead South spots

Sunday: around 1-1+ metres dead South at first then coming up briefly

Monday: then back down again in the 1-2 metre range South

Tuesday: around 1 metre or so South

Wednesday: let’s say Ditto

Thursday: looks like coming up again, around 2-3 metres at dead South places.

Stay safe.

TG

I’ll be going away for a little while but will try to post from time to time. Miss you already… 🙂

Up in the Air

The Low is moving away pretty quickly~~~~~~~~~~~~

How artistic is that brush stroke eh>>>

… “Mother Nature is a natural artist!” (c with circle, TG 2019…haha)

Winds

Yes…but easing off and changing direction, again and again

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8

Down in the Sea

Water temp is starting to get chilly at around 17

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on August 16th, 2019 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Friday 16 August 2019: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

After a week of waves for those in their prime, it’s going down to levels more suitable for other punters… provided that’s at the right place, right tide, etc.

Saturday: around 1 metre or so dead South, with maybe occasional little sets from South East

Sunday: less than 1 metre or maybe 1 metre from North East

Monday: hmm let’s say around 1 metre or so at places open to North East

Tuesday: maybe similar…maybe not…a lot of waves headed out to sea

Wednesday: a bit more SSW so let’s say maybe 1 metre or in the 1-2 metre range at dead South places

Thursday: looking bigger tat the moment but things could change… at the moment the crystal ball is saying 2-3 metrish at dead South places…. but we’ll see about that.  Mother Nature might change her mind!

TG

Up in the Sky

A variety of more westerlies a comin’>>>>>>>>>>>

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216/waves?waves,2019-08-20-18,-34.296,151.216,8,m:cIJaknc

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 18-19

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on August 8th, 2019 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued 8 August 2019: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

The weekend outlook is for:

quite a bit of wind from the west – more than enough to blow off your toupee so watch out,

quite a bit of cold – more than you’ll want having tasted a touch of Spring today,  and

quite flat surf.

It might start to come up from the south later on Sunday, but most of the SW swell will be travelling parallel to the coastline, and with the strong offshore wind pushing it back out to sea it doesn’t look like much of it should hit the shoreline.

But if the the swell beats the strong offshore wind, because of its increasing swell period  – ie the Swell wins the Battle of the Winds and Waves – the surf should be somewhere in the 1-2 metre range, and coming up at dead South places later in the day.

Monday will be a different story…. still with strong westerly winds trying to push back increasing swell.  It’ll be interesting to see who wins out – from for example the comfort of a warm car.

Friday – Saturday: flattish

Sunday: flat or as described above

Monday: say around 2-3 metres at dead South places, with sets

Tuesday: easing back, 2- 2+ metres at dead South spots, with sets

Wednesday: easing back more, into the 1-2 metre range dead South with solid sets

Thursday: down more in the 1-2 metre range dead South, with sets.

Stay Warm, Stay Cool, Stay Safe.

TG

Up in the Air

Blue sky…

Winds

 

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 19…still pleasant enough

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on August 1st, 2019 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 1 August 2019: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Happy August!  A bit of swell around today for those that are young and fit. Much as I’d like to think that’s me, a quick look in the mirror tells me otherwise… Oh well we can only do our best.

Currently offshore it’s 1.8 – 2.9 metres from SSE.  Although the size is moderating a little late this arvo according to the MHL buoy, the period for the sets is a whopping 14-15, which is why the BoM has a warning up for tomorrow… “Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.”  Caution may be warranted at places that attract dead South swell if that doesn’t suit your age and skill set.  Some swell might even get into protected corners tomorrow.  And then there’s the banks… sigh.

Swell should be up a little tomorrow but the direction looks like being more SSW.. so while it will be a size at dead South spots, hard to say whether the size or direction will be the bigger influence in more protected locations

The higher period sets should stick around most of the week to keep you on your toes.  Should ease back around Thursday.

More sunny days with light winds ahead, so the general scene isn’t all that bad.

So

Friday: say around 2 ish or more metres at places that get dead South swell, smaller elsewhere but we’ll see if sets get in.

Saturday: down a bit into the 1-2 metre range, but still with a hefty period for the sets

Sunday: then up again, say 3-3+ metres at dead South places, with sets

Monday: 1-2, 2+ metres dead South, and sets

Tuesday:  say 1-2 metre range dead South, with sets

Wednesday:  down a bit in the 1-2 metre range dead South spots, still with sets

Thursday: easing back to around 1 – 1+ metres South East

Stay safe.

TG.

Up in the Air

Not a cloud to be seen>>>

Winds

 

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 19ish

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on July 25th, 2019 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 25 July 2019: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

After today’s brief uptick, it’ll be back to smallness again for several days.

When the swell starts to pick up a little later in the week from the South that will be accompanied by showers, cold temps, and SW/S wind – so I’d guess it’ll probably be a “who cares what size it is?” situation – before things might start to ease back a bit on Friday … A bit early to tell but we’ll see.

Friday: back to 1 metre or less South East, but rideable

Saturday: similar

Sunday: maybe around 1 metre at places open to due South

Monday: 1 metre or less South East

Tuesday: ditto at dead South places, the rest nothing, or just nothing.

Wednesday: let’s say somewhere in the 1-2 metre range at dead South spots, could be more but I don’t think you’ll care

Thursday: dittoish – but easing back during the day

Friday: hmm let’s say somewhere ’round the middle of the 1-2 metre range South East. Let’s see how things are travelling next week

TG

Up in the Air

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 18-19

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

I love the cover of the 2019-20 Tide Chart… ” I kept the channel marker to port, and here I am.  I can’t understand what’s gone wrong”…

Weather from the Bureau

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on July 19th, 2019 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on July 11th, 2019 in Goat's Forecast.

Saturday Surf Report

Hey Don – Simon ran out of time to talk this morning on 702! First time that’s happened.

Anyway everyone – here’s the Saturday surf report 🙂 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

It’s flat as a tack..barely a ripple.

Some blue sky and occasional bright sunshine breaking through the clouds… couple of drops of water.

Wind is West at  around 50kph and while the air temp is 12 the wind chill is keeping the apparent temp down to 2!

Flat, cold, windy… back to bed!

The last few days have been really pretty to look at – blue skies, nice lines on the ocean suggesting swell, but the waves have been a bit deceptive at times – they’ve looked like they’ll break, but don’t. Or they look like you need to take a couple of extra paddles to make sure you’re on, but next thing you’ve fallen over the front of the board down the wave…unless you’re young, fit and agile and you can handle anything, and you don’t have to worry about the wind blowing your wig off.  It has been a bit windy!

The banks are pretty straight across a lot of beaches at the moment so that doesn’t create much of a rideable wave at low or high tide. This has meant frustration, so a lot of people simply haven’t bothered to go in the water, despite it being school holidays.

Today  the Bureau of Meteorology’s Sydney Coastal Waters Forecast has a Gale warning (NW/W/SW), with Seas of 2 to 3 metres, Swell Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres by early evening.

But the Gale force NW/W/SW wind looks like keeping the bigger swell out of the coast, and the due South swell direction means it will go straight past Sydney. The later South West direction will push it out into the Tasman… so I’m expecting the surf to stay flat or less than 1 metre

But there are always other things you can do at the beach on a sunny day if you want to burn off some energy, like take a run or a brisk walk or a paddle in the breeze or a swim… And the BoM says, despite the sunny day, “Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]”… Isn’t that interesting.

If you just want a surf, you might want to stay in bed and plan something else today.

…

For the week ahead…

Westerly type winds are expected all through the week….

Westerlies initially flatten the surf on the East Coast, until swell that has built up coming over many thousands of kilometres across the Great Australian Bight and the southern ocean refracts to the left around Victoria, and starts either coming up the NSW coast, or heads off in a south westerly direction into the Tasman.

It’s always hard to say but it looks like the alternating W/NW/SW winds across the country will push most of the bigger swell out into the Tasman, or it will go right on up the coast past Sydney … which is fine for the average punter, as there’ll be fun leftover surf from that.

So, while it will be big offshore, right in close to the coast the South swell should be more moderately sized.

It might start to come up possibly Sunday or more likely Monday, and that should last all week.

And with the expected offshore winds there should be some fun times ahead for surfers…depending on the banks… and we’re not talking about the Big 4.

Monday: say in the 1-2 metre range at dead South spots, but there’ll be a lot of SW in the swell; despite the reasonable wave period there’ll be a battle between the wave pulse and the wind, with the wind most likely keeping the swell down

Tuesday:  bigger, southerly swell with a period bigger than 10 seconds could see surf around maybe 2 or 2+ metres at places open to the South, and some getting into other beaches

Wednesday: easing back in the upper 1-2 metre range, still due South

Thursday: down a little in the 1-2 metre range, as the direction turns more South West

Friday: up again 2-3 metres at due South places.

A couple of wind chill days ahead, so stay warm.  Water’s pleasant enough at around 18-19.

TG

 

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 11 July 2019: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Last few days have been really pretty to look at, though waves have been a bit deceptive – look like they’ll break but don’t …look like you need to take a couple of extra strokes, but you’re falling off the front…unless you’re young fit and agile and you handle anything, and you don’t have to worry about the wind blowing your wig off.  The banks are pretty straight at a lot of beaches and could do with some improvement.

Westerly type winds are expected all through next week. Westerlies initially flatten the surf on the East coast, until swell coming across the Great Australian Bight refracts left around Victoria, and comes either up the coast or heads off in a south westerly direction into the Tasman, depending on the wind pushing it along.

It looks to TG that the alternating W/NW/SW winds will push most of the bigger stuff out into the Tasman or it will go right on up the coast past Sydney, which is fine for the average punter.

So big offshore, but right in close to the coast some moderately sized South swell should start to come up from possibly Sunday or more likely Monday, that should last all week. And with the  expected offshore winds there should be some fun times ahead…depending on the banks.

Friday: less than 1 metre or flat

Saturday: less than 1 metre or flat

Sunday: could start to come up into the 1-2 metre range at places open to due South; some might get into protected spots but my guess is the wind is more likely to push it back

Monday: say in the 1-2 metre range at dead South spots, but there’ll be a lot of SW in the swell; despite the reasonable wave period there’ll be a battle between the wave pulse and the wind, most likely keeping it down

Tuesday:  bigger more southerly swell with a pulse could see it around maybe 2 or 2+ metres at places open to the South, with more getting into other places

Wednesday: easing back in the upper 1-2 metre range still due South

Thursday: down a little in the 1-2 metre range as the direction turns more South West

Friday: up again 2-3 metres at due South places.

A couple of wind chill days ahead too so stay warm.  Water’s pleasant enough.

Stay safe

TG

————-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Up in the Air

Blue skies and more blue skies

Lots of lines close together from the West ————What can it mean…??

You’ve got

Wind

blowing offshore >>>> and lots of it

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8

Down in the Sea

Water temp

The MHL Sydney buoy temperature reader is off the air at the moment, but the last recording was 19.5 on 8 July, and I’d say from the feel of it, it’s about that.

Tides

^v^v^v^v

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on July 5th, 2019 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Friday 5 July 2019: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Up in the Air

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8

Down in the Sea

Water Temp is around 19

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Tge Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on June 28th, 2019 in Goat's Forecast.