Posts in Goat’s Forecast

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on December 7th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 7 December 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

It’s a very busy time of the year… Yesterday I saw every break from the Bower to Pittwater as I drove past them… to do other stuff.  Pre-storm they were all the same… A Mess…. with individual variations from A Big Mess to a Small Mess. So when I saw all white water this morning I assumed it was same again, and I had other things to do anyway. Apparently some lucky people were able to get in the water and had some fun waves.

Not sure the waves and younger more energetic crowds would have suited me anyway.  It’s a very busy time of the year…in and out of the water.  All I can say to you is, that if you were or are able to get in the water at the right time, you either don’t have any responsibilities… Or you’re irresponsible!!!

I won’t comment further, as I still have other things to do.  Comforting me a little is that conditions will be quite changeable over coming days, so you’ll have to be on your toes.  I see lots of green cold water patches out to sea among the blue patches.

There should be wWaves of varying size, quality, and wave direction and wind direction all week, but at least there’ll be waves of some sort at the right time, right place…

Friday: still in the upper end of the 1-2 metre range, East, possibly with some bigger sets

Saturday: southerly type winds should know it down a bit but still in the 1-2 metre range and swinging more South East, with some sets at dead South places

Sunday: down to more manageable levels for the average punter, in the lower end of the 1-2 metre range East South East, with occasional slightly bigger sets from the East

Monday: about 1 metre or so SE with some mild sets from the East

Tuesday: about 1 metre or so, let’s say Eastish

Wednesday: 1-1+ etres North East

Thursday: ditto.

Do your best to have fun, and be responsible!  Stay safe.

And I’ve gotta go now!!!

In the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Dec  7 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Dec  7 04:30:00 2017

https://www.windyty.com/

In the Sea

Water temp is currently 20, but was only 16 a few days ago,  There might be more cold/warmer currents ahead for a bit.

 

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

 

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Clear.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Clear. Winds northwest to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h tending northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:20 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Friday 8 December

Summary
Min 20
Max 25
Showers. Possible storm.
Possible rainfall: 4 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm, most likely in the afternoon. Winds northwest to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the morning then becoming south to southeasterly 25 to 35 km/h in the early afternoon and strengthening to 25 to 35 km/h near the coast from the late afternoon.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

 

Saturday 9 December

Summary
Min 18
Max 24
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming tending east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Sunday 10 December

Summary
Min 17
Max 26
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Monday 11 December

Summary
Min 18
Max 27
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Tuesday 12 December

Summary
Min 19
Max 29
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 13 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 32
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Thursday 14 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 32
Possible afternoon shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Hot in the west. Medium (40%) chance of showers, mostly in the afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning then tending westerly during the day.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on November 30th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 30 November 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

First of all… I said to Waz I had to do a forecast tonight… He said, So you just cut and paste?…

Cut and Paste??!!

The surf forecasts are all TG’s original, ir-responsible, work.

Hours of detailed analysis of lots of complicated stuff go into putting together the surf forecast.  TG constantly strives for precision and perfection . The typing alone takes forever, using two fingers.

Waz, Read this>>>>The Goat FAQs… FYI>>>>

The Goat FAQ

Now, the Surf Forecast for the first week of Summer

There should be some fun, rideable waves at the right tides (generally lower tides), at the right places, most of the coming week…

Don’t expect too much and you won’t be disappointed…

Friday: should be a little bigger than it was today –say around the mid point of the 1-2 metre range East North East

Saturday: dittoish

Sunday: same again, but maybe a tad bigger

Monday: down into the lower end of the 1-2 metre range East North East

Tuesday: ditto East

Wednesday: ditto

Thursday: and again, East North East

See if you can find where that was cut and paste from.

Any cut and paste bits are from the sources identified below….

Enjoy!

TG

The Sky is Blue

How fascinating is that 1004 isobar below, tracking along the northern coastline, where the land meets the sea.

MSLP Analysis for Thu Nov 30 06:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Nov 30 08:30:00 2017

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-33.883,151.156,5

The Sea is too

Water temp is still bouncing around from day to day as the East Coast Current swirls down the coast and gets disturbed by days and days of Noreasters and the occasional short Southerly spell. So tomorrow, the next day or the next, might be 18 …or might be 22. You’ll just have to stick your big toe in the water to find out each day.

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Mostly clear.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Friday 1 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 28
Possible afternoon shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.2 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the afternoon. Winds northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the morning then becoming northeasterly 25 to 35 km/h in the middle of the day.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 8:20 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

 

Saturday 2 December

Summary
Min 22
Max 29
Rain at times.
Possible rainfall: 4 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of rain, most likely in the late afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Winds north to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h increasing to 30 km/h before turning northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:20 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Sunday 3 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 29
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers, most likely in the evening. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h tending west to northwesterly during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Monday 4 December

Summary
Min 19
Max 24
Showers increasing.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming east to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Tuesday 5 December

Summary
Min 19
Max 23
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 4 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning then tending east to southeasterly during the day.

Wednesday 6 December

Summary
Min 19
Max 25
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds.

Thursday 7 December

Summary
Min 18
Max 25
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on November 23rd, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 23 November 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Mother Nature has heard you all cry out: Onshore! again! day after day.

But she’s misheard that as: Encore! again!  The wind has drowned you out while she’s conducting her symphony of the elements.   So could you please all speak more distinctly in future.

In the meantime, she’s already programmed in a bit more of the same, thinking that’s what you want.

With the onshores has come some marginal to tiny surf… But some pretty fabulous weather, and the water has warmed back up a little.  It ain’t all that bad.

If you’ve been able to jag a wave at the right tide, then stay alert and grab it when you can.

The surf outlook for the week ahead:

Friday: around 1 metre or so East

Saturday: around 1 metre or so East North East

Sunday: ever so slightly up into the low end 1-2 metre range East North East

Monday: somewhere in lower end of the 1-2 metre range East North East

Tuesday: ditto

Wednesday: somewhere in the low end of the 1-2 metre range North East

Thursday: ditto.

Happy Thanksgiving to all our American friends, here or there, and to everyone who likes a good turkey!

Heard of a worthy cause this morning … Saturday 5 k walk to raise money for research to cure brain cancer in young people. 8.30am registration at Shelley Beach Manly for pleasant walk to North Curl Curl.

So the surf’s not perfect. There’s still an awful lot to be thankful for.

Stay well.. Have fun!

TG.

High in the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Nov 23 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Nov 23 04:30:00 2017

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-33.883,151.167,5

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 19, 20…still swirling around

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Clear.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly clear. Slight (20%) chance of a shower in the outer west early this evening. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Friday 24 November

Summary
Min 18
Max 27
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the west in the afternoon and early evening. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn then becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Saturday 25 November

Summary
Min 19
Max 27
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Sunday 26 November

Summary
Min 19
Max 27
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the west in the afternoon. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Monday 27 November

Summary
Min 20
Max 27
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Light winds.

Tuesday 28 November

Summary
Min 20
Max 25
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm later in the day. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 29 November

Summary
Min 20
Max 25
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 4 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm later in the day. Light winds.

Thursday 30 November

Summary
Min 20
Max 27
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm later in the day. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on November 16th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 16 November 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

We’ve had some fab sunny days, but with onshores and small waves. There are some days of cloudy sky, much needed showers ahead and Noreasters are expected by the Bureau till Sunday, when the wind will turn more Easterly again, with onshores right through till Thursday.

The good news for those who don’t mind onshore wind spraying the sea into your eyes, ears and mouth or just keeping your body temperature down below comfortable levels when you’re wet, is that the surf should pick up a little with the wind. That’s “up a little” speaking relatively, if you start from “tiny” today.  For everyone else not at work or school who find onshores just plain annoying, it looks looks like jobs time again, or walkies, or bikies etc.

Surf outlook:

Friday: slight uptick from today as the Noreaster keeps pushing along, say 1- 1+ metres East North East

Saturday: up more in the 1-2 metre range East North East, somewhat bigger and windier at southern ends of beaches

Sunday: in the 1-2 metre range East, with East winds

Monday: down a little in the 1-2 metre range East

Tuesday: ostensibly (big word !) about the same, but with longer period sets that may be bigger

Wednesday: down again, around 1-1+ metres

Thursday: coming up a little in the 1-2 metre range East/South

Enjoy whatever you’re doing!

TG

Up in the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Nov 16 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Nov 16 05:30:00 2017

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.889,151.216,7

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 19 at the moment, having crept down a little today after several days of Noreasters.

 

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Possible shower.
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the west. Winds northeasterly 25 to 35 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Friday 17 November

Summary
Min 19
Max 24
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 6 to 15 mm
Chance of any rain: 95% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

 

Saturday 18 November

Summary
Min 19
Max 23
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 4 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h tending easterly 15 to 20 km/h in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Sunday 19 November

Summary
Min 18
Max 24
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds easterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Monday 20 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 24
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then becoming light during the afternoon.

Tuesday 21 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 23
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. Light winds.

Wednesday 22 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 24
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Thursday 23 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 25
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on November 9th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf forecast issued Thursday 9 November 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Waves of some sort all week. Light winds too but mostly light onshore for several days courtesy of a couple of big Highs slowly meandering across the bottom of the continent. If you don’t mind light onshores the surf could be sort of ok at places open to South swell where there are still some banks left after all that large messiness, which has only started to ease back today.

Over the next couple of days there will still be swell arriving from way down South. Smaller waves have started to settle down on their journey up the coast and joined themselves  together to form swells, so you can expect some long periods between sets, even though it’ll be mostly in the 1-2 metre range.  The BoM has a couple of warnings in the weather below

Friday 10/11: in the 1-2 metre range dead South, with sets, eased back from today early on but then expect some larger sets later

Saturday 11/11: up in the 1-2 metre range, with sets, dead South

Sunday 12/11: down a bit in the 1-2 metre range dead South, but likely there’ll still be sets

Monday 13/11: lower end of the 1-2 metre range but with sets, South East

Tuesday 14/11: low end of the 1-2 metre range East South East

Wednesday 15/11: down more to around 1 metre or so East/ North East

Thursday 16/11: 1 metre or so East/ North East.

And a couple of notices if I may.. I have your attention anyway …

On Sunday 12 November, Avalon Beach SLSC will be holding a Fun Gala Day to raise awareness of mental health issues and raise funds for Lifeline.  It’ll take place from 9am to around 11am, involving all ages of club members from Nippers through to Masters as teams in water and beach events (replacing regular Nippers events).  The Club will set up water event areas taking account of all beachgoers, boardriders and ensure a safe flag area for swimmers. If you’re planning to visit Avalon on Sunday please be aware and understand these areas will be subject to surf conditions on the day, sandbank locations, and the rocks in the middle of the beach. Everyone is welcome to watch and to make a donation to Lifeline in collection tins which will be at the surf club and at the Max surf lookout in the middle of the beach.

Also on Sunday Ken Davo Davidson, one of the surf club’s original toothpick board riders will be turning 90.  Everyone is welcome to wish Ken happy birthday with a coldie at the club from 5pm when the bar will be open to everyone, members and visitors, whether you know him or not!

And Don’t Forget Remembrance Day on the 11th of the 11th (Saturday)

Have fun!

TG

Up in the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Nov  9 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Nov  9 05:30:00 2017

Wind

https://www.windy.com/?-33.817,151.201,5

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 19.

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Clear.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Clear. Winds easterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Friday 10 November

Summary
Min 14
Max 23
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Early fog patches in the west. Light winds.

Surf conditions in the late afternoon and evening may be more powerful than they appear and are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing and swimming.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

 

Saturday 11 November

Summary
Min 16
Max 23
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower in the morning and early afternoon. Light winds.

Surf conditions may be more powerful than they appear and are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing and swimming.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Sunday 12 November

Summary
Min 16
Max 22
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Patchy morning fog in the west. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Monday 13 November

Summary
Min 14
Max 23
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Tuesday 14 November

Summary
Min 15
Max 23
Morning shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely during the morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Light winds.

Wednesday 15 November

Summary
Min 15
Max 25
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Thursday 16 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 26
Showers increasing.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day


TG’s Surf Forecast

Posted on November 2nd, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 2 November 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

After the wind and the cold and the waves that weren’t attractive to almost everyone from the Low that formed down south, there’ll be a short intermission, giving the impression that things are starting to look up, but then… And then… Sigh …Can’t say there’s much on offer for the average punters in the coming week. When/if it’s rideable or there are banks at some sheltered south spot, it’ll probably be best left to the keen, fit, experienced, or desperate.  Others may find it more satisfying to get back to those jobs around the house.

Friday: starting to calm down from today’s messiness, say around the upper end of the 1-2 metre range, with bigger sets occasionally, South East, probably still bumpy

Saturday: after an expected southerly change Friday evening, it’ll start to come up again in the 1-2 metre range dead South but not formed swell to get into protected corners, just windy messy

Sunday: upper end of the 1-2 metre range dead South/ South East with sets, maybe into S corners

Monday: around 2, 2+ metres East South East, and there’s another Low expected to form off the coast

Tuesday: say in the 2-3 metre range early on, then easing back

Wednesday: 2-2 + metres dead South with some solid sets

Thursday: 2-3 metres dead South

If you’re keen for all that…Yay for you..

If that’s not entirely what you’d call fun surf, then be content knowing you’re not alone 🙂

Keep smiling

TG

In the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Nov  2 06:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Nov  2 07:30:00 2017

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-33.881,151.180,5

In the Sea

Water temp is around 20.  Whales are still heading down the coast in small groups, not far out.

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds easterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

Friday 3 November

Summary
Min 16
Max 26
Late shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers in the late afternoon and evening, with the risk of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming westerly 15 to 25 km/h in the afternoon, with northeasterly seabreezes developing near the coast. A gusty southerly change 25 to 35 km/h in the evening.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

 

Saturday 4 November

Summary
Min 15
Max 19
Showers easing.
Possible rainfall: 8 to 15 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers, mostly in the morning. Winds south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

Sunday 5 November

Summary
Min 15
Max 20
A few showers.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 5 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

Monday 6 November

Summary
Min 16
Max 24
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 15 to 30 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers. Winds northwest to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h tending southerly 20 to 30 km/h during the afternoon.

Tuesday 7 November

Summary
Min 14
Max 21
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers, mostly during the morning. Light winds becoming southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 8 November

Summary
Min 13
Max 20
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Thursday 9 November

Summary
Min 14
Max 22
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

 

 

 


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on October 26th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 26 October 2016: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

The surf’s been so so, weather’s been up and down…Perfect conditions for catching up on those odd jobs around the house.

The good news is…

If you haven’t finished the jobs you’ve started, there should be plenty of opportunities for you this week.

Friday: in the 1-2 metre range East South East and windblown

Saturday: in the 1-2 metre range East South East, light winds in the morning, NorEaster in the arvo

Sunday: 1 metre or so East

Monday: 1 metre or less North East

Tuesday: up into the 1-2 metre range at dead South places

Wednesday: down a bit, 1 metre or less at dead South places

Thursday: 1 metre or less East.

Let’s see.. Paint, brushes//And if conditions happen to look OK sometime, the painting will always keep till later 🙂

TG.

Sky, Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Oct 26 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Oct 26 05:30:00 2017

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-33.893,151.204,5

Sea, Sea

Water temp is around 19, 20.

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Showers. Storm likely.
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers. Thunderstorm likely, possibly severe. Winds south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

Friday 27 October

Summary
Min 17
Max 23
Showers clearing.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers in the morning and early afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and early afternoon. Winds southerly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the evening.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

 

Saturday 28 October

Summary
Min 16
Max 27
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h for a period in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 4:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

Sunday 29 October

Summary
Min 19
Max 29
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h tending west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day then turning north to northeasterly during the afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

Monday 30 October

Summary
Min 19
Max 30
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h shifting southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h during the afternoon.

Tuesday 31 October

Summary
Min 14
Max 20
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h tending southeast to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning.

Wednesday 1 November

Summary
Min 14
Max 22
Shower or two. Windy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Winds southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h turning southerly 25 to 40 km/h during the morning.

Thursday 2 November

Summary
Min 16
Max 23
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Winds southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h tending southerly 25 to 35 km/h during the morning.

 


TG’s Surf Forecast

Posted on October 19th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 19 October 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Fab weather today… Sunny, 26, Noreaster pushing in some waves at the right places/ right tides.

But if you’re making hay, then you might want to get stuck into it, because the Bureau is saying there’s a 100 % chance it’ll get wet tomorrow!  That’s a pretty big call.

Meanwhile, what’ll it do for the surf??  In the morning it’ll still be NE windswell, then as the forecast Southerly arrives it’ll be all chopped up and messy, then later when you’re going to bed it’ll start to pick up a bit. But don’t fret…Then it’ll settle into a windy dead southerly swell day and you might decide to stay in bed.

Maybe come out of hibernation Sunday, but with onshore conditions making it pretty ordinary you might want to have a fallback activity to surfing.

If you’re lucky enough there might be some little waves and better weather during the week.

Friday: in the 1-2 metre range from the North East, ahead of a Southerly change that’ll just mess things up

Saturday: upper end of the 1-2 metre range, choppy and windy and cool at dead South spots

Sunday: lower end of the 1-2 metre range South East

Monday: ditto

Tuesday: about 1 metre or so South East

Wednesday: 1 metre or less South East

Thursday: ditto East.

Nice little story Don found here>>>

Hang ten (decades): Walter Munk, inventor of the surf forecast, turns 100

Have fun!

But not yet if you’re makin’ hay!

TG

Up in the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Oct 19 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Oct 19 05:30:00 2017

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-33.861,151.198,5

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 18 according to the MHL buoy but it’s warmer than that in the surf.  You can see from the BoM satellite pic: warm water (about 20) nearshore, then a cooler stretch (where the MHL buoy would be) then warmer water further out from that.  (No, the water isn’t really coloured yellow).

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Becoming cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Becoming cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of rain later tonight. Winds northeasterly 25 to 35 km/h decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

Friday 20 October

Summary
Min 18
Max 20
Rain. Becoming windy.
Possible rainfall: 15 to 25 mm
Chance of any rain: 100%

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of rain, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Light winds becoming northwest to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the morning, then tending southerly 25 to 35 km/h in the middle of the day and reaching 35 to 45 km/h near the coast.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

 

Saturday 21 October

Summary
Min 14
Max 20
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower along the coastal fringe in the morning afternoon. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h tending south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 3:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

Sunday 22 October

Summary
Min 13
Max 22
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower in the afternoon and evening. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 3:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

Monday 23 October

Summary
Min 15
Max 22
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Tuesday 24 October

Summary
Min 14
Max 26
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h tending east to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 25 October

Summary
Min 16
Max 28
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds.

Thursday 26 October

Summary
Min 20
Max 31
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers later in the day. Winds north to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h shifting south to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.


TG’s Surf Forecast

Posted on October 12th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 12 October 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

While I was avoiding a seal in the surf here last week, Wazza was swimmng in Hawaii and there was a seal on the beach there…   What’s going on??? Huh???  The lifeguards marked out an area around it to avoid an unfortunate incident.

A welcome drop of overnight rain followed by a pleasantly warm, sunny day today.  Almost perfect except there was no surf.  Then this arvo a fresh SE change blew through… Will it blow up some surf?? I hear you ask through my speakers… The answer is:

Not really… well maybe a little something, and there could be more of a little something later

Friday: about 1 metre South East

Saturday: about 1 metre or so East South East, with maybe a little pulse from due South from time to time

Sunday: about 1 metre at places that like dead South swell, with sets that are a little bigger

Monday: coming up in the 1-2 metre range East/ South East

Tuesday: upper end of the 1-2 metre range East South East

Wednesday: ditto and more East

Thursday: in the 1-2 metre range North East.

Have a good one

TG

Up in the Air

MSLP Analysis for Thu Oct 12 06:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Oct 12 05:30:00 2017

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-33.888,151.123,5

Down in the Water

Water temp is around 19 mostly, trying hard to get to 20. As far as I’m concerned it’s not trying hard enough.  Maybe this weekend…

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Mostly clear.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly clear. Winds southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:20 am to 3:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

Friday 13 October

Summary
Min 15
Max 24
Late shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Patchy fog in the west in the early morning. Mostly sunny day. Medium (40%) chance of showers in the evening. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the early afternoon then turning south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the evening.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 9:20 am to 3:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

 

Saturday 14 October

Summary
Min 16
Max 20
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers. Winds south to southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 9:20 am to 3:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

Sunday 15 October

Summary
Min 16
Max 21
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds southeast to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h tending southeasterly during the morning then becoming light during the afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 9:20 am to 3:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

Monday 16 October

Summary
Min 16
Max 23
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming east to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then becoming light during the afternoon.

Tuesday 17 October

Summary
Min 17
Max 23
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 18 October

Summary
Min 16
Max 25
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h during the day.

Thursday 19 October

Summary
Min 17
Max 28
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.2 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Winds north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on October 5th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 5 October 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

The good news is the water has finally started to warm up…It’s bearable in boardshorts, as opposed to freezing.

And swirling along with the East Coast Current there are now some more whales to be seen in closer. Saw a cute little calf cavorting with its mother today, flopping and splashing all over the place.  He/she started heading north again until mum brought it back into line: ‘Hey Dopey. ..have you got water in your ears?? We go south now. Stick with me or else!’  Whale mothers have to be cruel to be kind….

Because there are bound to be other critters around too… like the seal that surfed down the face of the wave toward me today .. Very cutesy, but these are all wild animals. They can bite, so when it was getting a little too friendly I let it have the waves all to itself.  NPWS advice:

http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/news/npws-says-give-seals-space-to-recover-and-rest

So, there were small waves at the right tide today, when the wind went to the NE, and it was sunny with warm air.  But all that’s about to change for tomorrow

Friday: about 1 metre or so East/North East ahead of a Southerly change which will just make it a windblown mess. It’ll start to come up more overnight

Saturday: pretty dead South swell so let’s call it 1-2, 2+ metres …at places that like dead South swell, hmm maybe some will get into protected corners

Sunday: looks more interesting for the punters, probably in the 1-2 metre range South East , with a light Northerly

Monday: ditto but with bigger sets

Tuesday: low end of the 1-2 metre range South East

Wednesday: ditto but dead South

Thursday: about 1 metre or so dead South

Steer clear of all marine creatures that have teeth, or might squash you.

No matter how cute you might think they are…they don’t like to be hugged. And they think they own the place. Tsss..

Lion Island Challenge is on this Saturday.  Details here

Lion Island Challenge

Up in the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Oct  5 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Oct  5 06:30:00 2017

Winds>>>>>>>>>>>>>

https://www.windy.com/?-33.883,151.167,5

Down in the Sea

MHL still having problems getting the water temp off the buoy, but as if to confirm my own reading by sacrificing my body to the elements for you, the satellite via the BOM shows that the warmer water is now here.  Lots of whales out offshore apparently, probably where the red stuff is… No wonder Junior wanted to go back north.  He was probably wondering where all his mates are. (they’re way out the back toward NZ)

imagetemp

Tides ~~~~~~~~~~~~~

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:30 am to 3:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

Friday 6 October

Summary
Min 18
Max 23
Cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Winds south to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h turning southeasterly in the late morning then tending southerly 25 to 35 km/h in the evening.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 9:30 am to 3:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

 

Saturday 7 October

Summary
Min 13
Max 21
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds southerly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light early in the morning then becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day.

Sun protection recommended from 9:20 am to 3:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

Sunday 8 October

Summary
Min 13
Max 23
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming northerly 15 to 25 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:20 am to 3:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

Monday 9 October

Summary
Min 17
Max 30
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the outer west in the afternoon. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h tending west to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning then tending west to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the evening.

Tuesday 10 October

Summary
Min 16
Max 21
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Winds southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h turning south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning.

Wednesday 11 October

Summary
Min 15
Max 25
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h during the day.

Thursday 12 October

Summary
Min 16
Max 28
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely during the morning. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h shifting southerly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.


 

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