The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on March 26th, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 26 March 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

I said to a mate this morning that I’d been mulling over what I should say in the forecast in a socially responsible way, given present circumstances.

He said:

Just say… The surf is crap. And you can’t go out anyway!

So there’s the Surf Forecast. Thanks Roy.

While that might not be strictly correct (the surf is _total_ crap), now is not the time to be splitting hairs.

Some of the major beaches are closed because of the people who couldn’t stick to social distancing rules. But in addition, among the Government’s current advice to stop the spread of the virus in the community, is “We are suspending non-essential gatherings to reduce the risk of spreading coronavirus (COVID-19). This will give both businesses and people time to fully understand social distancing requirements.” And “non essential travel is to be avoided”.  It doesn’t specifically say don’t go to the beach, but that doesn’t mean: let’s all go to beaches that are currently open and congregate in close groups like Total Drongos.

Keep up to date: aus.gov.au

Common sense in following the rules is the order of the day for outdoor (and indoor) activities.

To assist with this, for the time being  TG intends not to provide comment on what the surf outlook looks like and just give the facts, for people to use their own common sense.  Younger people and Complete Dills might need some community guidance for the good of public health from time to time.

We all need something to look forward to. If we all do the right thing, we should stay healthy so we can enjoy crowded surfs (!!??) in the future.  Did that come out right??

TG may offer some helpful suggestions from time to time… like…

Maybe remember some great surf trips you’ve had in the past to talk over with mates on the phone?.. or

Under the current rules, hairdressers are open. Yesterday he was weighing up the risks of getting a haircut…

Will the barber follow the 4 square metre rule etc?

versus

Will a later gathering of 10 people say: “A pity about TG. But boy he’s got a great haircut!”

As TG was starting to look like Rip Van Winkel, he decided it wouldn’t hurt to have a look….

First barber “Closed due to coronavirus”.

Second barber “Open”.. plenty of space inside, lots of ventilation with front and back doors open, and the only person inside was the barber.  So far so good, fingers crossed. 🙂 If it doesn’t work out I’ll blame the Government.

To help out those businesses that can’t work from home and help keep the economy ticking over, if there is something you need, it might be worth just having a look, following the rules and using common sense.

Stay safe. Stay well.

TG

Up in the Air

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-34.066,150.816,5

Down in the Sea

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on March 19th, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 19 March 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

With all the grim news around, which is likely to get grimmer before it gets better, it’s important to remember there’s always The Surf.

Going for a surf or just getting wet – even at the worst of times, even if the surf is rubbish – can help lift the spirits, clear the head, and generate positive endorphins from the exercise.

https://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/13/health/endorphins-exercise-cause-happiness/index.html

Provided you’re healthy and you keep the required separation from others, you might even share a joke (I just saw a back headline from the NT News – “Vomiting man stuck to windscreen” (!?)… intriguing… or share some advice.

TG’s only advice is to get official health info and stick to it.  If you’ve returned from an O/S surf or any trip, Stay Home! Your friends won’t appreciate you sharing your stories face to face.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/covid19-coronavirus-australia-how-do-i-self-isolate/12063002

Stay positive, and also remember that eventually – whenever that is – things will get better.

Now for some more not bad, not good, just ordinary surf news… It’s easing back, then it will come up, then go down, then come up again.

Friday: going down from the little growth spurt on Thursday, to around 1 metre or so East North East, maybe with occasional sets

Saturday: coming up a little during the day into the 1-2 metre range at dead South places only and messy windy

Sunday: dittoish with some possibly getting into protected corners

Monday: around 2-2+ metres dead South with the pulse getting into protected corners

Tuesday: easing back in the 1-2 metre range dead South with some sets possible

Wednesday: easing back more and ditto

Thursday: coming up1-2, 2 + metres at dead South places only.

Stay well.

TG.

Up in the Air

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-34.066,150.816,5

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 22.  OK for a swim

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on March 12th, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 12 March 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Hmm interesting…looks like we might get a brief respite from the cool Easterlies Friday with a touch of summer noreaster making the surf seem more summery too.

A Low way up north off FNQ  is expected to develop into a cyclone late Friday.  TCs do whatever they want but the current expectation is that it will track more or less down the Qld/ Far North NSW coast, give them a little hammering, before heading off at a tangent into the Tasman, providing Sydney beaches with a light thumping from around say Monday Tuesday Wednesday from the South East/ East South East.

As that’s a little way down the track it’s subject to change but that’s what it looks like at the moment… Wouldn’t get too excited though.. the Bureau expects southerly/ south easterly winds to go with it.  Might be interesting just to watch.

Friday: around 1 metre or less from East, picking up a little through the day

Saturday: say around 1 metre or so, then late late coming up from dead South

Sunday: say around 2-2+ metres at dead South places, but most of the size going straight past up the coast, with s wind

Monday: currently looking like 3-3+ metres (subject to what the TC does) East South East with a bit of momentum

Tuesday: (ditto in brackets) 2-3 metre swells form East South East

Wednesday: 2-2+ metre East South East swells

Thursday: similar

Stay safe. Stay well.

TG

Up in the Air

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-34.050,150.835,5

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 22, 23

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on March 6th, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Friday 6 March 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Today started out holding some promise but then the wind turned South and things turned ordinary, except for the super keen ones who didn’t mind choppy conditions at places open to the south, and for people in sheltered southerly corners where the Noreast swell was still getting in.

Tomorrow looks like being a similar situation to this arvo.

The outlook for the week ahead is for the wind to blow from southerly directions and the swell should build a little from that,  with some fairly solid South/South East swell likely around Monday or Tuesday, which should ease back gradually later in the week.

Saturday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range with a combination of two swells, East and South, and strong southerly winds. So places open to dead south won’t be looking too flash,  while protected southern corners should have a some rideable waves

Sunday: something similar

Monday: ditto at first, then starting to come up in the 2-3 metre range South East with some solid sets

Tuesday: easing a little, 2-2+ metres South East but with sets

Wednesday: down into the 1-2 metre range South East with occasional sets

Thursday: around 1 metre or so South East

Friday: down a bit more, Eastish

TG

Up in the Air

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 22

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on February 27th, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 27 February 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

There was an uptick of the surf this morning after the strong southerly change that came through last night, into the 1-2 metre SE, which has been gradually easing back through the day. Starting out cloudy it turned into a beautiful warm blue sky day, and after the breeze swung to the North East there were a lot of takers for the waves on offer.

Conditions in the water have been improving and the Bureau says the outlook is for generally light, though variable, winds and the weather looks like being similar to today’s.

The Surf outlook is for moderate to smaller and variable waves, but it looks like there will be waves of sorts all week… some days being more dependent on the tides than others for a decent wave.  But all and all.. not too bad.

Friday: easing back from today and with a bit of south in it, so say around 1 metre or so South East/South

Saturday: up a little – somewhere in the 1-2 metre range South/South East

Sunday: down a little to around 1 metre or so South East, with some East

Monday: 1 metre or so East

Tuesday: up a little into the 1-2 metre range South East/South

Wednesday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range East South East

Thursday: similar or maybe up a little tick.

Be flexible, be agile, keep on your toes, and you should bag a wave or two.

Have fun.

TG

Up in the Air

A TC and a couple of Lows up far north are expected to give the inland north and centre a bit of a soak

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 22 out off Sydney, but nearshore it was warm as a bath yesterday

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on February 20th, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 20 February 2020 (or 20022020 :): Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Nice day for the beach today… except for the messy surf… the relentless wind… the murky water… the masses of seaweed… the floating driftwood… and the cloudy/sunny/cloudy/sunny blue sky sequencing>> And yet, a strangely pleasantly mellow day to contemplate the whole coastal scene … perhaps to doze…

There will be waves.. and wind tomorrow, with the size decreasing over the weekend and thru the week. But with the topup the ocean has had from recent rains flowing out of the drains, rivers, creeks etc, I wouldn’t expect the other sea conditions to be improving in a hurry… maybe later in the week. At least it looks like it’ll be mostly nice weather for more contemplation.

Friday: somewhere around 2 metres or so at places open to dead South swell, with occasional sets

Saturday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range dead South, going down through the day… occasional sets

Sunday: around 1 metre or so East South East

Monday: ditto East

Tuesday: 1ish metres East

Wednesday: 1ish metres North East, before a southerly change later

Thursday: up a little at dead South spots, somewhere in the 1-2 metre range

Stay well

TG

 

Up in the Air

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8

Down in the Sea

Water temp, if you’re really keen to know, is around 23.

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on February 13th, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

Update

The eye is currently roughly 600 ks east of us.

 

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 13 February 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

What interesting weather we’ve been having eh… and more interesting weather is coming our way…

All eyes are on TC, now Ex TC Uesi, which is set to continue its southward journey as an intense Low down the Tasman Sea….Latest Forecast Track map is below. It’s expected to be out off Sydney on Friday, but for Sydney the Bureau is forecasting light winds and rain here. However , we will see its swells. In fact if you looked at the ocean this arvo you’re already seeing the start of those.  It’s not expected to stick around here very long, which is fine, but as it keeps moving south then south east to pay a visit to NZ’s South Island by Sunday, we’ll still have waves from it all week. The size and direction of the surf we get will change as it moves south.

Now before you get too excited>>>

a) the Bureau has Large Surf warnings up for some days, as the waves will have a bit of oomph, so they will only be for the experienced, and

b) I wouldn’t recommend going in the ocean at the moment anyway.

Our much needed rain has given everything a great flush out, with the result that the ocean water is putrid.  As lagoon creeks and rivers along the coast including the Hawkesbury pour out, and runoff from stormwater drains send rubbish out, the ocean has turned to a foul looking, deep, dark chocolate colour…

Which is sort of Nature’s Warning to Stay Away.

Just for the academic heck of it… watch the changing swell direction as it hits our coast…

Friday: somewhere in the 1-5 – 2 metre range East North East, with ommph, and coming up into the 2-3 metre range East North East/East

Saturday: somewhere in the 3-4 metre range East, with oomph

Sunday: easing back a little in the 1.5-2 metre range South East, as the Low visits NZ, but sends back prolonged waves

Monday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range East South East

Tuesday: coming up again, 1.5-2 metres South East and with long range oomph

Wednesday: similar but sort of easing a bit South East

Thursday: up again, somewhere in the 2-2+ metres range South East

It’d be pretty to watch if it weren’t for that water colour, floating debris, and who knows what else in the water.

TG

Up in the Air

BoM says “Ex-tropical cyclone Uesi expected to cause destructive winds at Lord Howe Island this evening.” (Thurs 13/2) Latest Forecast Track map

and http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

 

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8

Down in the Sea

Water temp

Tides

Weather from the Bureau

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on February 6th, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 6 February 2020: Seven day outlook:

Great to see the rain… and some more good falls are forecast over coming days.

There’ll be continuing waves from the East, courtesy of a big High, but the forecast is for the waves and the rain to come with wind, which never does a lot for surf quality… You can’t have it all.

Maybe from around Tuesday onward the surf might start looking more human-friendly.

In the meantime there’s plenty of other things to do…

Friday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range, or maybe a little bigger, East

Saturday: coming up more. say 3-4 metres, or more, East, but with the wind and the rain I don’t think the size will really matter… the Ocean will be whipping itself into a frenzy by the look of things

Sunday: And a big Ditto… or in other words, Beach Closed

Monday: Still up, say 3-4 metres, possibly more, East, although wind conditions may, or may not, be a little calmer

Tuesday: somewhere around the 2=3 metre range East… might be looking better

Wednesday: around 2 metres or so East

Thursday: in the 1-2 metre range, with sets, East North East

Friday: in the 1-2 metre range East North East

Btw, All these onshore conditions are bringing in the blueys, just to add to the mixture of marine delights on this week’s menu…

TG

Up in the Air

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8

Down in the Sea

Water temp has dropped a bit to around 22 close to to the coast

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

 

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on January 30th, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 30 January 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Well if you’d looked at some places today you’d have said there was nothing. And you’d have been right if you didn’t have any imagination.  But if you imagined there were waves, and went out regardless, you might have caught an occasional fluke if you were lucky.

The same principle will apply for the next few days at least.

But with how weather forecast and warm water you might as well get wet…

Water temp is around 24-25 according to MHL. TG’s built in RFITW (Real Feel In The Water) sensors concur!

Friday: about 1 metre or so short period North East windswell

Saturday: maybe a little bigger, somewhere in the 1-2 metre range short period North East windswell (small at northern ends, bigger at S ends)

Sunday: let’s say ditto

Monday: Ditto North East/ East

Tuesday:  coming up somewhere in the 1-2 metre range at dead South spots, but short period, so not much chance of much happening in corners protected from the S/SE wind

Wednesday: maybe a bit more say 2, 2+ metres dead South and a bit more chance of something in protected corners with sets around 13-14 seconds

Thursday: going down, say 1-1+ South East

Have a good one

TG

Up in the Air

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 24-25 according to MHL, and TG’s built in RFITW (Real Feel In The Water) sensors concur!

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on January 23rd, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 23 January 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Bit warmish today, with a bit of dust in the air. The wind is expected to turn south early tomorrow morning to cool down the temp for you.

My mates and I have looked at the surf all week, gone in for swims because of the crowd (it’s school hols and those who had gone south came home and stayed home) and the waves (not to my liking anytime I saw them), but at the beach I’ve heard other people, all young people, raving about the great surf they had here or there, whenever. Anyway, good luck to them; glad they’re having fun.

The coming week is also likely to suit the keen, enthusiastic, young, fit etc, who’ll be best able to make the most of continuing Noreast windswell.  Factors determining how good the surf will be each day this week will be tides, banks (I haven’t seen a good one for ages) and wind.  And of course it’ll be bigger at southern ends of beaches (but windy at times).

Surf outlook

Friday: down a bit from today, say around the middle of the 1-2 metre range North East

Saturday: somewhere around 1, 1+ metres North East

Sunday: smaller East North East

Monday: around 1 metre East North East

Tuesday: ditto North East

Wednesday: up a little from the South, say 1-1+ metres East South East

Thursday: around 1 metre East South East.

At least someone’s having fun!

TG

Up in the Air

 

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.375,151.216,8,i:pressure,m:cIJaknc

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 23, 24 at the moment

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

Weather from the Bureau