The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 31 May 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Tomorrow is the first day of Winter! and there’ll be a 17 max temp to welcome you…not to mention a big windchill to make it feel even colder.

There’s been strong SSW/S 40-50 kph winds and cold air today. It’s only reached 16 so far with an apparent temp of 7.

I see rolling swells out to sea, but inshore it’s still rather modest. Ships off Newcastle have weighed anchor and have headed out to sea to ride out some expected nasty conditions.

Some of the models aren’t automatically updating themselves.   No doubt wanting to see what a Low that forms off the coast is expected to do, which will tweak the numbers and direction.

If the Low does what TG thinks, there will be a lot of SW in it, which will keep the nevertheless sizable swell inshore, not as big as out where the ships will be.

Overall, TG doesn’t see much attraction in thinking about getting wet in the ocean and trying to ride a surfingboard over its surface for the next several days…

Friday: up from today, into the 3-4 metre range, shortish period at dead South places.. and windy and cold Yumm

Saturday: around the 3-4 metre range dead South, with bigger sets from South East.. and windy and cold

Sunday: in the 3-4 metre range, maybe bit bigger but shortish period…and windy and cold

Monday: 2-3ish metres range East South East.. with wind and cold

Tuesday: let’s say, dittoish

Wednesday: oh, and ditto

Thursday: 1-2 metre range South East.

Ok… a bit of a bummer for most normal people.

Just relax chillout chillax and listen to this week’s oldie but a goodie.

TG

Up in the Sky

Wind

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.889,151.216,7

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 20…

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon	Location	Min	Max
	Sydney	–	19
	Penrith	–	19
	Liverpool	–	19
	Terrey Hills	–	17
	Richmond	–	19
	Parramatta	–	19
	Campbelltown	–	19
	Bondi	–	17

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 24 May 2108: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Had a few nice waves earlier in the week in really nice conditions.

Now… well ya never know… there may be a few more coming your way before it starts to go down and then later in the week hmm well let’s see later in the week.

Friday: If you had waves with size today, you should have some more tomorrow.. say 2-3 metre at dead South swell places, with some oomph

Saturday: down a little in the 2-3 metre range at dead South places

Sunday: around 2 metres or so South East…still watch for the sets

Monday: down into the lower  end of the 1-2 metre range South East

Tuesday: down to around 1 metre or so South East

Wednesday: starting to come up..low end of 1-2 metre range South East at first then increasing through the day at places that are open to the South

Thursday: could be a repeat performance on today, depending on… well we’ll see later on.

Stay warm, stay safe…It’s not cool to take off on critical large waves over shallow sandbanks as I saw at Queensie/North Steyne this week.  Some people need reminding, or simply don’t know, it’s not cool to end up a quadriplegic. Check how much water there is under you.

TG

Up in the Sky

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-33.892,151.138,5,i:pressure

Down in the Sea

Water temp was nice then got cooler, then we had a couple of very pleasant for even swimming warmer days… now it looks like some of that colder water hanging just offshore in the satellite pic may start coming inshore to annoy me, if not everyone else.

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/sydney.shtml

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 17 May 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

What a week! Cold, windy and messy out of control surf for most of it. Not much use to anyone except the very few people that I saw in the water at a couple of rare times: young keen kids (they have to learn sometime), very experienced (good luck to them), or the odd lunatic. For the rest of us it was doing-something-else time.

Now that it looks like it’s finally starting to calm down, you may well find that your favourite sandbank has been dredged by the constant onslaught of rips from larger waves and wind.  Sigh.  Never mind, it’ll come back – sometime in the next 6 months!

In the meantime, to help bring back the banks more quickly, you can sing along while you read the rest of the forecast. You know you want to –

Ahh, they don’t make songs like that any more, do they? !?

Singalong Surf Forecasts…  What’ll they think of next!

The surf…

Friday: down from today in the lower end of the 1-2 metre range at places that are open to dead South swell

Saturday: up in the 1-2 metre range at dead South places, with some sets showing a little oomphyness at times

Sunday: easing back in the 1-2 metre range at dead South places

Monday: coming up again! 2 – 2+ metres, with sets, at dead South spots

Tuesday: down in the 1-2 metre range at dead South places

Wednesday: in the 1-2 metre range… yes dead South

Thursday: I could speculate, but let’s not scare the horses at this early stage.

Have fun if you can find somewhere with banks… and stay safe. Surf within your abilities at suitable places.

If you can’t find somewhere, then just sing along … At least it’ll be sunny.

TG

Up in the Sky

Wind

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.889,151.216,7

Down in the Sea

Water temp is getting cooler at around 19.

Ahh that’s where the whales are… Look how nice and warm it is way out offshore.

If you were a whale wouldn’t you rather be swimming north in warmer water? If you were a people wouldn’t you too??

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon	Location	Min	Max
	Sydney	9	20
	Penrith	6	22
	Liverpool	6	22
	Terrey Hills	8	19
	Richmond	3	22
	Parramatta	6	21
	Campbelltown	4	22
	Bondi	11	18

Saturday 19 May

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 10 May 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

People at the beach are telling me: “It’s gonna be huge here tomorrow…6 or 7 metres”  Apparently that’s what other sources are saying ….

When I hear that all over the place, I’m reminded of the 1964 song “Suspicion…” that I coincidentally heard on the rad only a little while ago 🙂 Hey, maybe that’s what reminded me… (PS it’s Not Elvis)…

And so I have a little independent think about it, while I grab some grains of salt, and start rummaging around in the Goat’s Guts.

First thing to note is TG doesn’t think it will be huge tomorrow at least…

Second of all, the larger stuff forecast for Saturday etc from the computer generated material that others regurgitate, seems to TG to be pretty dependent on what a Low that’s expected to form down South does, and while it may pan out that way, be prepared to adjust your expectations.

And c) TG is just suspicious by nature about such things, having seen so many forecasts generated from computer models, and heard so many “rolled gold” guarantees on all manner of things, over the years.

On the other hand, TG doesn’t want to look like a Big Goose too, so he won’t say that can’t happen… That’s the current spit out from the models, but it wouldn’t surprise him if some of those models get revised.

Here’s his take on things… First it’ll be windy, from various directions, and it’ll likely be bigger offshore most of the time, but as far as surf goes

Friday: probably too much West and SW in the wind and swell for much to be coming in, so around 1 metre or so East

Saturday: probably still SW swell, so most will be going on past. But it could have a longish period so let’s say in the 1-2 metre range at dead South spots, with sets getting in to some corners that could be 2-3 metres

Sunday: 1-2 metre range, 2+ ,and sets at dead South spots that may be around 2-3 metres

Monday: up in the 2-3 metre range South East

Tuesday: dittoish

Wednesday: ditto at dead South places

Thursday: 2-2+ metres South East

Unique I know, not huge, but biggish at times. But there you go…  TG is unique. If there was a song ” Skeptical….” I’d have played it 🙂

Up in the Sky

Wind

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216/waves?-34.726,151.216,7,m:cIJaknc

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 21, 22.. still pleasant for a swim, or surf sans wettie… up to today.

Saw my first whale of the Up Season this week, as the warm water starts receding Northward.

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon	Location	Min	Max
	Sydney	–	25
	Penrith	–	25
	Liverpool	–	25
	Terrey Hills	–	23
	Richmond	–	25
	Parramatta	–	25
	Campbelltown	–	25
	Bondi	–	23

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 5 March 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

A small surf week ahead… but look at the weather and the warm water.

There’ll be little fun waves at the right tide, right place for those who: a) like those, b) aren’t too fussy, or c) are desperate, for most of the time.  Nothing up North for Don and Guy…enjoy the scenery and the vibe 🙂

Friday: around 1 metre or so North North East wind waves at first, then going down

Saturday: 1 metre or less at dead South places

Sunday: around 1 metre or less dead South

Monday: ditto

Tuesday: less than 1 metre East South East

Wednesday: around 1 metre or less dead South spots

Thursday: starting to come up into the 1-2 metre range at dead South places only

Enjoy.

TG

Up in the Air

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-33.907,151.209,5

Down in the Water

Water temp is around 22

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon	Location	Min	Max
	Sydney	–	26
	Penrith	–	28
	Liverpool	–	28
	Terrey Hills	–	25
	Richmond	–	28
	Parramatta	–	27
	Campbelltown	–	28
	Bondi	–	25

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 26 April 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

If you’re like me, and are already sick of cooler Southerly winds with not much useful surf to show for it, well we’re both just going to have to suck it up.

Like my Digger grandfather wrote to my grandmother from the Western Front in France in WW1, 100 years ago, when the weather was cold and wet, and he was still recovering from being previously shot in the leg, and gassed:

I hope they won’t be sending us back out in the line, but if they do, I suppose I’ll “just have to make the best of it”.

So with that in mind, the surf will be mainly small and windblown, with not enough pulse to get much into protected corners.

On the positive side, we are able to consider other options 🙂

Friday: in the 1-2 metre range, maybe more , at places that get dead South swell… and a windblown mess

Saturday: 1-2 metre range, windblown

Sunday: 1-2 metre range South East, coming up later at dead South spots… and windblown

Monday: Up at dead South places, bit of size and slightly longer period, but windy

Tuesday: eased back into the 1-2 metre range South East

Wednesday: down to around 1 metre or so South East

Thursday: and ditto.

Stay cool, and stay warm.

TG.

Up in the Sky

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-33.870,151.194,5

Down in the Sea

Water temp is still a pleasant-enough-for-swimming 22

Weather from the Bureau:

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon	Location	Min	Max
	Sydney	–	24
	Penrith	–	28
	Liverpool	–	27
	Terrey Hills	–	23
	Richmond	–	27
	Parramatta	–	26
	Campbelltown	–	27
	Bondi	–	23

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 19 April 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

You know how the Bureau has been issuing those powerful surf warnings…and you might or mightn’t have seen much powerful surf?  So you’ve wondered what the hey are they talkin’ about??

Well TG is here to help, cause you might see a few more of those warnings in coming days, as The Bureau updates its daily forecasts…

First, the Bureau needs to improve those warnings by at least giving the powerful set swell direction in its warnings (as TG has suggested to them,,,and period would be even better)…

Today for example you would have seen the swell fading in the arvo, but, at places that were open to dead South swell, there were sets bigger than the average wave conditions from time to time.

But if you were somewhere protected from dead South swell, it would have been closer to a lake.

Second, to help you get more meaning out of the BoM’s updates of powerful surf conditions warnings, see TG’s forecast below…  Innovating surf forecasts since 1997 …Inventing new words since forever…:)

Friday: down a bit from today, mainly in the lower end of the 1-2 metre range from South East, but with 9-10 sec peak sets from time to time at places that get dead South swell

Saturday: down a bit more as the swell turns more South, but again with 10-11 peak sets at places open to dead South swell (ie they mightn’t be big but they’ll have a bit of oomph behind ’em)

Sunday: up a little from the South East, still lower end of the 1-2 metre range most of the time, but with 11-13 peak sets from dead South

Monday: and similar again

Tuesday: up in the 1-2 metre range from South South East, and with bigger sets from South South East (14-15 sec peak period)

Wednesday: easing back a little East South East, and sets from South East (11-13 peak)

Thursday: similar but more East in it, and with 9-10 sec peak sets from the East.

Hope that helps 🙂

Remember the Diggers on Anzac Day.

TG

Up in the Sky

Down in the Sea

Water temps have started to cool…around 20-22 now

Weather from the Bureau:

http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/sydney.shtml

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 12 April 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

There’s been a bit of hot air blowing our way from the inland of the Continent – Did you just say: ‘There must be a political convention on out there!’ … ‘I didn’t know they’d moved Canberra’ – Dear oh dear… Of course they haven’t moved it. The hot air is only temporarily coming from that direction.  Now, don’t you get me started.

The ocean has been agitated too… sometimes small, sometimes big..sometimes good, sometimes bad… It’ll probably be settling down soon into a bit more of a routine in the lead up to the school holidays.

Friday: down more from today, in the 1-2 metre range East South East, with some little sets

Saturday: around the low end of the 1-2 metre range North East and South East, still with an occasional pulse

Sunday: low end 1-2 metre range North East and South East

Monday: about 1 metre North East

Tuesday: about 1 metre at places that get dead South swell

Wednesday: up slightly in the 1-2 metre range at dead South places

Thursday: down to around 1 metre at dead South places.

Happy Birthday to Mark Morrisey

from TG.

Up in the Sky

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216/waves?-34.881,151.216,7,m:cIJaknc

Down in the Sea

Water temp is a balmy 23ish

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon	Location	Min	Max
	Sydney	22	35
	Penrith	20	35
	Liverpool	19	35
	Terrey Hills	20	32
	Richmond	20	35
	Parramatta	20	35
	Campbelltown	18	35
	Bondi	23	34

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 5 April 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

• Beautiful day.. blue sky .. sunshine.. birds twittering ..warm air… What more could you want???!!

Waves ???  Well there were pleasant waves at the right places, right tides if you were able…

I’m tired after being able to enjoy it all, and I want a little lie down now… perhaps to dream…

So I won’t take up any more of my time, and I’ll be brief…

Friday: size similar to today, around 1 metre or slightly more toward the middle of the 1-2 metre range East

Saturday: low to middle of 1-2 metre range East

Sunday: around the middle of the 1-2 metre range East. Perfect conditions for the Newport to Avalon ocean swim and the Avalon Surf Swims…Don’t drive Round the Bends…Swim Round the Bends! Get your entries in here

http://www.oceanswims.com/swims/calendar/eventdetail/366/54/avalon-nsw-e.html

Monday: Middle of the 1-2 metre range East

Tuesday: coming up from the South East in the 1-2 metre range

Wednesday, Thursday: my eyes are getting droopy and the crystal ball looks foggy, but there could be a little something coming up from the East South East… let’s just wait a bit and see when things are clearer.

That’s enough for now.

TG

Up in the Sky

TC Iris looks like wetting FNQ but is not expected to come down south at this stage.  A run of Highs are in store for us…continuing the run of nice weather (nice if you don’t depend on rain falling).

Wind

https://www.windy.com/?-33.942,150.872,5,i:pressure

Down in the Sea

Water temp

Tides

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary

Max 27

Mostly sunny.

Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the early afternoon then becoming light in the late evening.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 2:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon	Location	Min	Max
	Sydney	–	27
	Penrith	–	31
	Liverpool	–	30
	Terrey Hills	–	26
	Richmond	–	30
	Parramatta	–	29
	Campbelltown	–	30
	Bondi	–	25

Friday 6 April

Summary

Min 18

Max 27

Sunny.

Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon then tending southeasterly in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 2:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

Saturday 7 April

Summary

Min 18

Max 28

Sunny.

Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds southeast to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light during the morning then becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 2:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

Sunday 8 April

Summary

Min 19

Max 27

Sunny.

Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h shifting east to northeasterly during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 2:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

Monday 9 April

Summary

Min 18

Max 30

Sunny.

Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming southerly 15 to 20 km/h later.

Tuesday 10 April

Summary

Min 19

Max 28

Partly cloudy.

Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm

Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning southeasterly during the morning.

Wednesday 11 April

Summary

Min 19

Max 28

Partly cloudy.

Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:20 pm EST Thursday.

TG’s Easter Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 29 March 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

A chill out Easter weekend ahead for you :)..

Which may be just what you need.  Perhaps a little time for reflection too.  The change of season always seems to do that to me…remembering and being grateful for the good times and laughs, surfing and otherwise, at this time in years gone past.

Anyhoo I’ll keep it brief because you’ve got to get out there and buy those Easter eggs for the family…

Nice weather, small waves, warm water..nothing to get the heart pumping too much, but there should be waves for people who enjoy mals and SUPs at the right place, right tide.

Don’t expect too much and you won’t be disappointed 🙂

Friday: slightly bigger than today, up into the lower reaches of the 1-2 metre range North East

Saturday: down slightly ditto

Sunday: down more to around 1 metre or so North East

Monday: ditto East North East, then smaller from the South

Tuesday: up a little into the low end of the 1-2 metre range at places open to dead South

Wednesday:about 1 metre East South East

Thursday: ditto but from dead South

Have a Happy Easter.

TG

PS Don’t forget>>>

Daylight saving will end at 3am on Sunday, 1 April 2018, when clocks go back one hour (NSW Government).

Up in the Sky

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-33.883,151.217,5

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 23

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon	Location	Min	Max
	Sydney	–	28
	Penrith	–	33
	Liverpool	–	31
	Terrey Hills	–	27
	Richmond	–	32
	Parramatta	–	30
	Campbelltown	–	31
	Bondi	–	25