The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 8 February 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Some more warmish days ahead… See, Summer hasn’t really gone away.  And that means more Summer wave conditions.

The Bureau expects the wind to be chopping and changing directions from day to day, so that won’t help bring swell.

But there should be small waves for the right equipment at the right tides in the week ahead.

There should also be a little uptick, briefly, on Sunday.

Friday: about 1 metre or so East

Saturday: ditto

Sunday: up, briefly, into the 1-2 metre range East, then South East later

Monday: eased back say 1-1+ South South East

Tuesday: about 1-1+ East South East

Wednesday:about 1 metre or so North East

Thursday: around 1-1+ metres South East

Have a good one!

TG

Up in the Sky

Down in the Sea

Water temp when I was in earlier this week was beautiful…around 23.  The Noreaster has really been honking today, which has kept the coastal temperature to a pleasant level, but if it continues as expected over the next couple of days I wouldn’t be surprised if the water drops a degree or so before the next southerly change.

Weather from the Bureau:

http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/sydney.shtml

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 1 February 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Where did January go??…

Where did Summer go???….

Well like the 60’s song said “That was yesterday,…and yesterday’s gone….” An oldie and a goodie. 🙂

Don’t fret… There’s been a lot of Summers since then.  And there should be some more of it later in the week.

Surf

Currently 2-4 outside from SSE, with periods from 6-11 seconds so only getting into places open to dead South swell.

I do wish the BoM would give the swell direction or likely impact areas in their large surf warnings, as TG helpfully suggested to them some time back.  Had a positive initial response, but clearly it hasn’t been taken on board, yet. Might help confused punters who can see it’s flat at Manly when there’s a large surf warning. But with the swell from Dead South and a shortish period, nothing is going to get in there.

Friday: about 2-3 metres at places open to dead South swell, with sets

Saturday: around 2, 2+ metres from more South East (so it’ll get into more places), with sets

Sunday: upper end of the 1-2 metre range South East, with sets

Monday: down slightly in the 1-2 metre range but still with some oomph in the sets

Tuesday: coming up from dead South and with a big period, so let’s call it 3-4 metres at places open to dead South swell, with some sets getting into sheltered corners

Wednesday: easing slightly into the 2-3 metre ange Dead South, with sets

Thursday: around 2 metres or so South East , with sets.

Stay safe. Know your limitations.

TG

In the Sky

Wind

https://www.windyty.com/

In the Sea

Water temp is around 23

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon	Location	Min	Max
	Sydney	17	24
	Penrith	15	28
	Liverpool	14	26
	Terrey Hills	15	23
	Richmond	14	27
	Parramatta	14	25
	Campbelltown	13	26
	Bondi	18	21

The Goat’s Australia Day Long Weekend Surf Forecast

Saturday update

Practically nothing at the moment as the tide is too high but there might be a very small wave at lower tide.

Couple of SUPs, paddlers and hopefuls just bobbing around. But with the humidity at 95% being in the water is probably the best place to be. A light Noreaster is helping freshen up the air.

Tomorrow might be a bit better.

The Low in the Coral Sea (below) doesn’t look at this stage like it will bring much swell down our way, but there could be some up the coast around Tuesday.

Have a good one.

TG

Surf forecast issued Thursday 25 January 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

The surf has been small Noreast windswell for most of the week,  but at the right tides and right places there’s been just enough movement in the water to give kids on school holidays and other people some exercise while escaping the humidity.

And that situation looks like continuing through Monday~~~~~~~~~~~~at least it’s not flat.

After that it depends on what track a Low expected to form out in the Coral Sea takes… before a Southerly change cancels out whatever swell might be coming from that. It’s a dynamic atmosphere and ocean.

At this stage

Friday: around 1 metre East North East

Saturday: ditto maybe slightly more or less at times

Sunday: lower end of the 1-2 metre range East North East

Monday ditto

Tuesday: take your pick… either lower end of the 1-2 metre range East… or 2-3 metre range East

Wednesday: either ditto… or 3-4 metre range… before it’s impacted by a southerly change

Thursday: around the 1-2 metre range at places open to dead South with some larger sets.

Hope that helps with your planning 🙂

Have a Happy Australia Day!

TG.

Up in the Sky

Wind is here

https://www.windyty.com/

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 22ish

Tides are here

https://www.windyty.com/

Weather from the Bureau:

Sydney Forecast

View the current warnings for New South Wales

Forecast issued at 4:20 pm EDT on Thursday 25 January 2018.

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary

Partly cloudy.

Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the west. Winds east to northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Friday 26 January

Summary

Min 22

Max 29

Partly cloudy.

Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the outer west. Winds northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn then becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon	Location	Min	Max
	Sydney	22	29
	Penrith	22	36
	Liverpool	21	33
	Terrey Hills	21	29
	Richmond	21	35
	Parramatta	20	32
	Campbelltown	21	34
	Bondi	23	26

Saturday 27 January

Summary

Min 23

Max 29

Partly cloudy.

Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the outer west in the afternoon. Winds east to northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Sunday 28 January

Summary

Min 23

Max 28

Partly cloudy.

Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Monday 29 January

Summary

Min 22

Max 28

Mostly sunny.

Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.2 mm

Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Tuesday 30 January

Summary

Min 21

Max 29

Shower or two.

Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm

Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely later in the day. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 31 January

Summary

Min 21

Max 24

Showers.

Possible rainfall: 2 to 6 mm

Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. Winds southerly 15 to 25 km/h.

Thursday 1 February

Summary

Min 19

Max 22

Shower or two.

Possible rainfall: 1 to 5 mm

Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. Winds southerly 20 to 30 km/h.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Saturday update

Great conditions for the early… blue skies, no wind, waves around 1 metre or so with some a little bigger.

The tide is rising so bets to get in sooner rather than later.  Longboards SUPs best but energetic shortboard riders should be able to catch a few rides.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 18 January 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

The surf is finally starting to ease back after a week of large surf and onshore conditions that were not much use to most people… ‘all dressed up but no place to go’ springs to mind.

There’ll still be more (moderate) waves around for the coming week, albeit with light to stronger onshores on some days.

The water’s all been churned up and around, with garnishings of weed, gunk and whatever. Is it polluted?? TG’s simple rule is ‘if it looks dirty, it is dirty’.

Maybe your fave banks have been destroyed, or maybe improved…

Several things for you to discover for yourselves…

Friday: still going down but still likely around 2 metres or in the upper end of the 1-2 metre range South East, with some oomph there too, at places open the the South and smaller in corners sheltered from the South

Saturday: lower end of the 1-2 metre range South East

Sunday: in the 1-2 metre range South East

Monday: ditto but North East

Tuesday: around 1 metre or so North East

Wednesday: in the 1-2 metre range North East

Thursday: ditto

The Bureau is expecting some warmer days coming up, especially out in the western suburbs

So over the weekend there’ll probably be more people looking for somewhere to cool off along the coastline = more swimmers unfamiliar with surf conditions and looking to get into trouble, more parking space competition etc . On the other hand, they might all stay home!  Just another variable for you to consider in your plans, and for surf lifesaving people to consider in theirs…

Up in the Sky:

Winds

https://www.windyty.com/

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 22.

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon	Location	Min	Max
	Sydney	–	28
	Penrith	–	38
	Liverpool	–	34
	Terrey Hills	–	28
	Richmond	–	37
	Parramatta	–	33
	Campbelltown	–	35
	Bondi	–	24

TG’s Surf Forecast

Sunday Update

Don’t think you’re getting this treatment all the time… It’s just cause Don’s clearly busy on the other side of the Pacific.

When I first looked at my own little weather station at home it read 16 outside.  I thought it must be wrong, but the BoM says Sydney Airport on the coast right now is 17.8 with an apparent temp of 9.8!

While the sky is patchy as is the wind, at the airport it’s registering 52 kph gusts from SW.

The surf’s coming up but is messy.  Offshore it’s 3-6 metres from due South with 6-8 second periods.

The wind and the wave size will increase through the day. Showers, max 23 and ‘becoming windy’.

Have a good one doing something else.

TG

Saturday Update

Friday Update

No significant change to the outlook below, so if you want a weekend surf I’d be looking at Saturday early on in the day.

The planned ‘Around the Bends’ Newport to Avalon, and annual Avalon Beach ocean swims scheduled for this Sunday by Avalon Beach SLSC, have been postponed to Sunday 8 April 2018, due to water safety concerns with the deteriorating weather and surf outlook for Sunday.

There’ll be some solid swell pushing up along the NSW coast from mid week onwards, but it will be for experts and the experienced only!

Stay safe everynone.

TG

Surf forecast issued Thursday 11 January 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Well, we’ve had some changeable weather, wind and smallish waves that were pleasant for some at times over the past week.

It looks like we’re going to get some more changeable weather and wind over the coming week with smallish waves at first.

But then, depending on what a Low that’s expected to form over Bass Strait does when it goes into the Tasman, we look like getting weather, wind and waves that’ll be not so pleasant for most people till possibly later in the week.

Lows have a habit of not doing what may be expected. You just can’t tell Mother Nature what to do. We’ll know more over coming days. At this stage TG can only go with what’s in his fogged up crystal ball.

Entries are open for the Around the Bends Swim from Newport to Avalon, and Avalon Beach Surf Swims this Sunday…

Details here for all you dedicated ocean swimmers…http://avalonbeachslsc.com.au/

Surf

Friday: around 1 metre South South East

Saturday: in the lower end of the 1-2 metre range South East/North East

Sunday: IF the expected Low moves as it’s expected and when it’s expected, then let’s say in the 1-2 metre range short period near to shore at places open to dead South at first, (bigger swell out offshore), with SSW swell and wind to start with, and then building into say the 2-3 metre range later on at dead South places …But all accompanied by windy S/SSW wind… so as it comes up the coast from way down South, NG for Sydney or the South Coast, and probably not much getting into the North Coats points.

Monday: ditto again re the Low(‘s) expectations… could be in the 2-3 , 3+ metre range with increasing wave period at dead South spots, (with SW/S/SE wind expected by the BoM)…still probably NG Sydney and South Coast; maybe North Coast?

Tuesday: ditto re Lowdown, say 3-4 metres of big period dead South swell (with SE wind)…probably NMG for most Sydney, South Coast; North Coast prospects looking better

Wednesday: ditto downLow, 4+ metres dead South (with light NE wind expected)… experts, experienced only for Sydney, South Coast, North Coast

Thursday: easing back to around 2-3 metres South East but still with solid wave periods

There you go.. Those glum people who weren’t looking forward to going back to work next week, now have something to smile about!

The rest of you: Try to enjoy!

TG

The Goat FAQ

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Saturday Update

Friday Update

No significant change to the outlook below, so if you want a weekend surf I’d be looking at Saturday early on in the day.

The planned ‘Around the Bends’ Newport to Avalon, and annual Avalon Beach ocean swims scheduled for this Sunday by Avalon Beach SLSC, have been postponed to Sunday 8 April 2018, due to water safety concerns with the deteriorating weather and surf outlook for Sunday.

There’ll be some solid swell pushing up along the NSW coast from mid week onwards, but it will be for experts and the experienced only!

Stay safe everynone.

TG

Surf forecast issued Thursday 11 January 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Well, we’ve had some changeable weather, wind and smallish waves that were pleasant for some at times over the past week.

It looks like we’re going to get some more changeable weather and wind over the coming week with smallish waves at first.

But then, depending on what a Low that’s expected to form over Bass Strait does when it goes into the Tasman, we look like getting weather, wind and waves that’ll be not so pleasant for most people till possibly later in the week.

Lows have a habit of not doing what may be expected. You just can’t tell Mother Nature what to do. We’ll know more over coming days. At this stage TG can only go with what’s in his fogged up crystal ball.

Entries are open for the Around the Bends Swim from Newport to Avalon, and Avalon Beach Surf Swims this Sunday…

Details here for all you dedicated ocean swimmers…http://avalonbeachslsc.com.au/

Surf

Friday: around 1 metre South South East

Saturday: in the lower end of the 1-2 metre range South East/North East

Sunday: IF the expected Low moves as it’s expected and when it’s expected, then let’s say in the 1-2 metre range short period near to shore at places open to dead South at first, (bigger swell out offshore), with SSW swell and wind to start with, and then building into say the 2-3 metre range later on at dead South places …But all accompanied by windy S/SSW wind… so as it comes up the coast from way down South, NG for Sydney or the South Coast, and probably not much getting into the North Coats points.

Monday: ditto again re the Low(‘s) expectations… could be in the 2-3 , 3+ metre range with increasing wave period at dead South spots, (with SW/S/SE wind expected by the BoM)…still probably NG Sydney and South Coast; maybe North Coast?

Tuesday: ditto re Lowdown, say 3-4 metres of big period dead South swell (with SE wind)…probably NMG for most Sydney, South Coast; North Coast prospects looking better

Wednesday: ditto downLow, 4+ metres dead South (with light NE wind expected)… experts, experienced only for Sydney, South Coast, North Coast

Thursday: easing back to around 2-3 metres South East but still with solid wave periods

There you go.. Those glum people who weren’t looking forward to going back to work next week, now have something to smile about!

The rest of you: Try to enjoy!

TG

The Goat FAQ

Up in the Sky

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 22 in Sydney, 25 Byron, 23 Eden

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon	Location	Min	Max
	Sydney	–	26
	Penrith	–	31
	Liverpool	–	30
	Terrey Hills	–	26
	Richmond	–	30
	Parramatta	–	29
	Campbelltown	–	30
	Bondi	–	23

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 4 January 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

There were some rideable waves in the lower reaches of the 1-2 metre range this morning for keen punters at some places open to pretty much dead South as a result of the strong SSE wind we had over the past couple of days, before the tide got into it. Boy that’s a long sentence for you to get stuck into if you want. Lower reaches ??? He’s talking in riddles.

But they’ve already eased back.  See… Shorter sentences make more sense and are easier to read. But I don’t have time to rewrite it more nicer.

What’s that you say?? …Just get on with it???

Quick summary for you… Small waves. Possibly some mal rides at the right tides, right places. Keep your eyes open for opportunities.  Enjoy the warm water and warmer weather. Watch the extreme UVs, plus a couple of days when the Bureau says there might be Tstorms, and take precautions. Stay cool. And keep smiling. (I know they aren’t sentences… Just consider them to be bullet points to start preparing you for the working and study world soon). Keep smiling I said!

Friday: maybe around 1 metre or so or less at places open to dead South

Saturday: ditto

Sunday: around 1 metre or so of North East windswell

Monday: ditto

Tuesday: ditto but a little bit bigger

Wednesday: about the same as Tuesday, maybe a touch more

Thursday: about 1 metre or so North East

In the Sky

Winds

https://www.windyty.com/

In the Sea

Water temp is around 22,23… nice

Lots of nice warm water up and down the East Coast, from Byron 26 to Eden 22.

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

The king tides (Highs over 2 metres) we’ve had over the past few days will gradually start to ease back. But they will still be high Highs and low Lows (say that quickly) for a while.

Weather from the Bureau:

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon	Location	Min	Max
	Sydney	–	25
	Penrith	–	31
	Liverpool	–	29
	Terrey Hills	–	25
	Richmond	–	31
	Parramatta	–	28
	Campbelltown	–	29
	Bondi	–	22

The Goat’s New Year Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 28 December 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Christmas drinks, Christmas dinner, Christmas Day, Boxing Day drinks and dinner, grandkids’ birthday parties, surfing, cricket, the Sydney Hobart, and now New Years Eve coming up… a veritable cornucopia of Summer Fun!  Hope you’re all keeping up OK.

The surf’s been mostly small, but there have been waves enjoyed by many, perhaps too many at times! at some places where the banks aren’t too bad, at the right tides. And the weather has been perfect(ly hot) on some days, to spend time in the warmish water.

It looks like more of the same into the first part of 2018… which ain’t all that bad ’cause you’ve got enough going on without over-exerting yourself in the surf.

A couple of gratis, gratuitous messages:

Watch out for extreme UV levels even on cloudy days at the beach… we don’t want the kids or you getting too much of it.

And

Watch out for people doing breaststroke going backwards in a rip, even on small days. There are lots of visitors around who haven’t any experience with the surf or rips, so you might like to share some of your knowledge with them, and you might even get a buzz out of helping them out of trouble.

Friday: in the 1-2 metre range North East windswell

Saturday: around 1 metre or so North East

Sunday: up a little at places facing dead South, say in the 1-2 metre range but onshore, so you can rest up for New year’s Eve

Monday: about 1 metre or so South East, so you can rest up after New Years Eve

Tuesday: about 1 metre or less dead South places

Wednesday: ditto

Thursday: ditto again

Have Fun! Stay safe on the roads and in the surf.

Happy New Year!

TG

Up in the Sky

Wind

https://www.windyty.com/

Down in the Sea

Water temp is a pleasant 23, so you can comfortably stay in for hours, whether you want to or not waiting for a wave. Plenty of wind variations ahead so it shouldn’t get colder.

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon	Location	Min	Max
	Sydney	21	29
	Penrith	20	39
	Liverpool	20	36
	Terrey Hills	19	30
	Richmond	19	38
	Parramatta	19	35
	Campbelltown	19	36
	Bondi	21	27

The Goat’s Christmas Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 21 December 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Will it be cold? Or will it be hot??

Will the surf be up? Or will it not???

Should I eat a little? Or should I eat the lot??

Should I go for a surf? Or stay in the cot???

There’ll be a bit of everything for you in the lead up to, during, and after Christmas… but not necessarily in the order you might desire them.

For the surf: in short it’ll be mostly small, except for a small pop up surf day on Christmas day !!! Yay, you sayl

But that looks like being accompanied by a cool southerly wind with occasional showers …

So if you want to… after seeing what Santa has left you under the Christmas tree, you can flail about in the wind and the water on your new toys without concern that they or you are not performing (“because of the conditions”), before getting stuck into the full traditional Christmas day of overeating, then zonking out. Perfect.

Friday: 1 metre or less South East

Saturday: pretty much ditto

Sunday: about the same but East North East. Bureau says chance of Thunderstorms so even though it’ll be a hot one, don’t stay in or on the ocean, or out in the open at the beach if they are near you

Monday, Chrissy Day: up, with wind and a shower or two, into the 1-2 metre range at places open to dead South

Tuesday, Boxing Day: down to 1 metre or less dead South, with wind and a shower or two, so you can relax some more

Wednesday: maybe 1 metre or so East/South East

Thursday: about 1 metre East

Have a Great Christmas!!.. Try not to overdo it.

And stay safe, in and out of the water.

TG

In the Ocean

Water temp has settled down to a comfy 21, 22

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

In the Sky

Weather from the Bureau:

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon	Location	Min	Max
	Sydney	–	24
	Penrith	–	27
	Liverpool	–	26
	Terrey Hills	–	23
	Richmond	–	27
	Parramatta	–	25
	Campbelltown	–	26
	Bondi	–	21

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 14 December 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

School hols have started for some, and start for the rest from tomorrow.

So mums and dads want to know for the week ahead…

Can I say: Go surfing! to get the kids out of the house!?… Or even: Can I go surfing myself!!??

Well, make of this what you will… But make sure the kids…and you… stay safe in the surf.

Friday: despite a southerly change expected by the Bureau overnight, there should still be waves in the 1-2 metre range East North East , which of course will be poor quality at places open to the south but kids never notice that

Saturday: dittoish re wave size and direction

Sunday: down a little in the 1-2 metre range East North East, feeling the effects of more southerly wind

Monday: ditto re waves

Tuesday: dittoish, more Nor East

Wednesday: ditto East North East

Thursday: smaller East North East

Stay calm in the Lead up to Christmas Spirit.  No more carpark parking rage eh Col? Stay cool … Relaax …Everyone. Have fun! Or Else!!

TG.

Up up in the Sky

Winds

https://www.windyty.com/

Down down in the Sea

Water temp was beautiful today (Thursday) at around 22, despite the persistent Summer Noreasters we’ve had with the nice weather… it hasn’t been consistently NE though.  If the wind was going to continue strong from the NE for another day or so I’d say we could get some cold water.  But the Bureau is forecasting a southerly change, then a bit of chopping and changing wind directions, so the water should stay warm enough.

Some friends asked me the other day, what is the technical reason the water can get colder in Summer?

Technical reason!?  Why ask me??… 🙂

To help you all out, let’s see how the experts explain it:

http://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/1244/the-ekman-transport-effectcold-water-upwelling-on-australian-coastlines/

My Simple Rule of Thumb for Sydney and most of the NSW coastline: After 3 days of Strong Nor Easters expect Cold, Green, Darker, Plankton laden, Uncomfortable/Hypothermia-inducing-if-immersed-in-it-for-too-long, Cold Water.

Tides

Watch out for those shallow low tides. We don’t want you to become a paraplegic or worse from misjudging a wave or from a dumping shorebreak for that matter.

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon	Location	Min	Max
	Sydney	–	32
	Penrith	–	42
	Liverpool	–	41
	Terrey Hills	–	36
	Richmond	–	41
	Parramatta	–	41
	Campbelltown	–	41
	Bondi	–	30