Posts in Surf Reports

Warming up

Posted on January 14th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Only a weak little line at Dee Why beach 0800

Interesting wave at point that turned into nothing a second later.

Hello Friends,

Not much, if any, surf activity at Dee Why this morning. At 0800 the sun was already packing a punch, but along the beach there was nothing remotely surfable looking when I checked. That said, as the picture of the point shows, there are some outsize bumps coming in that just might offer the occasional diversion of a surfly nature.

The wind was very light but as the forecast below tells us, it’ll go around to the NE later in the day and by this evening it should be doing its 15-20 kt thing. At 0500 the MHL buoy was detecting a metre at 10 sec from the SSE plus some similar size NE bump in the 8-9 sec range. First tide of the day was a low at 0835. The high will be along at 1440.

The coming week will be another hot one with only faint wind bump. Saturday is currently forecast to be in the mid-30s along the coast, but Sunday should see a south change drop the temps back into the mid-20s. Unfortunately there really doesn’t seem to be much prospect of a change to the surf conditions in the long range models.

So, if you’re back to the grind this week, you ain’t missing much.

Go well with your Monday everyone!

 

Weather Situation

A weak trough lies over central waters while a high pressure lies of the southwestern Tasman Sea. The trough is expected to dissipate by the end of today, which will allow the high to direct northeasterly winds along most of the coast. The high is forecast to slowly move to the central Tasman Sea over the coming days and will maintain predominately north to northeasterly flow along the New South Wales coast until Saturday, when new trough is likely to bring a southerly change to parts of the coast.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds
Variable about 10 knots tending northeasterly during the morning and increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the middle of the day. Winds reaching up to 25 knots inshore in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloud clearing.

Tuesday 15 January

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Wednesday 16 January

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Southerly Sunday at the beach

Posted on January 13th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Competition day at DYSLSC

No waves but lots of wind at Longy

Not too happening at Dee Why

Sprinting nippers and waiting surfers 0940

Hello Friends,
South change blew through last night and left behind grey skies and 15-20 kts of southerly for Dee Why. A warm morning despite the cloud and wind, but nothing doing on the surf front. I watched Dee Why for some time this morning and did not see a wave caught – which was hardly surprising given the utterly gutless ankle to knee high chop on offer. A Sunday for other things I’d say.
Judging by the models’ predictions for the coming week, I’d say the next couple of days are likely to be write-offs, but maybe from around Wednesday we’ll see a bit of improvement – wind willing.
Have a good one and go well with your Sunday plans

Weather Situation
A weakening high pressure system near New Zealand extends a ridge towards northeast New South Wales, generating a east to northeasterly flow over northern New South Wales waters. A trough over Sydney waters will slowly edge northward through the Hunter waters today, with southerly winds to its south. This trough will stall and weaken later today as a new high pressure system moves to the southern Tasman Sea and brings northeasterly winds to the whole coast by Monday evening.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Winds
Northeasterly about 10 knots offshore tending southerly 10 to 20 knots inshore. Winds easing to about 10 knots by the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Monday 14 January
Winds
Northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Below 0.5 metres, increasing to around 1 metre around midday.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Tuesday 15 January
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.


Glassy and little but not flat

Posted on January 12th, 2019 in At large.

Out for a paddle at south Narrabeen 0630

Surfable little waves at North Narrabeen 0630

Bomb set hits No Mans 0630

Patiently waiting for something at the point

Checking out the weak and small conditions at Longy

Butterbox bracketed by fishers

Hello Friends,
Sunny, light NW breeze and little tiny vaguely SE bumps were rolling in at 0630 (the MHL buoy was seeing 1.2 m at 10 sec from 158°). If you figure on knee to waist you’ll be in the ballpark on size. Important to get in sooner rather than later because the wind is coming up from the north this morning and going NE later in the afternoon.
Tide was low at 0645 and will be back to high at 1.53 m. We’re headed to a high of 31C along the coast. Water is currently 20C.
We’re due for a south change tomorrow, but there doesn’t seem to be any real prospect of an improvement to the surf situation. The models show a gradual but small increase as we get toward mid-week.
Have a top old Saturday everyone!

Weather Situation
A weakening high pressure system near New Zealand extends a ridge towards northeast New South Wales, generating a northeasterly flow over New South Wales waters. A trough is expected to bring a southerly change to southern parts of the coast later today and Sunday. This trough will stall and weaken later Sunday as a new high pressure system moves to the southern Tasman Sea and restores a generally east to northeasterly flow again from Monday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots, reaching 25 knots offshore during the morning, turning northeasterly in the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.
Sunday 13 January
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots tending southerly 15 to 25 knots before dawn then tending east to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Monday 14 January
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Friday early glassy waist plusses

Posted on January 11th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Suggestion of a line at No Mans 0700

Up and riding on a little bump at the point

Set comes into the beach 

Hello Friends,

Light SW breeze barely stirring the surface at Dee Why as of 0700 this morning. Wave heights looked to be in the chest high range on sets along the beach and around waist at the point. At 0400 the MHL buoy was shwoing 1.5 metres of 10-sec from the south (164°). Tide bottomed out at 0600 and is currently coming into a 1.6 metres at 1220.

We’re heading to a high of 28C along the coast and winds should gradually pick up and swing around to the NE at 15-20 kts. Beachwatch is reporting water temp of 20C,

As always the Goat has rolled out a fresh forecast for the week ahead and I commend it to you.

Have a top old Friday everyone and stay happy!

Weather Situation

A weakening high pressure system near New Zealand extends a ridge towards northeast New South Wales, while a decaying trough lies over central waters. A new high, currently west of Bass Strait, will move to the Tasman Sea during Friday, re-establishing a generally northerly flow over New South Wales waters. Another trough looks set to affect southern parts of the coast later Saturday or Sunday.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm inshore late this afternoon and evening.

Saturday 12 January

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Sunday 13 January

Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots shifting southerly 15 to 20 knots during the morning then becoming variable about 10 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on January 10th, 2019 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 10 January 2019: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

All that huffing and puffing today won’t bring up much surf, but there should be waves of varying sorts all week for those still on holiday.  A few wind changes, but some more warm weather ahead to.

I can sympathise with those who had to go back to work this week. Last night I had a terrible dream. I was driving round and around and couldn’t find a damn parking spot in Manly to catch the ferry to work.

Proving that things always look better in the morning… when I woke up I remembered that I’m retired!  Haha.

Surf outlook:

Friday 11/1: in the 1-2 metre range South East/East, easing back through the day

Saturday: as a Noreaster picks up so will the surf, somewhere in the 1-2 metre range North East… might be some little sets from Eastish

Sunday: change in direction again with the wind .. somewhere in the 1-2 metre range South East, with maybe occasional sets from the East

Monday: in the 1-2 metre range at dead South places..not much elsewhere

Tuesday:  1-2 metre range East South East

Wednesday: 1-2 metre range Eastish

Thursday: 1-2 metre range East North East.

Enjoy, if you’re on holidays.

If you’ve gotta go to work… earn some money for your next holiday :

TG.

Up in the Air

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Jan 10 05:30:00 2019

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jan 10 00:00:00 2019 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.889,151.216,7,i:pressure,m:cIJaknc

Down in the Sea

Water temp is currently pleasant…CURRENTly haha.. Get it? at around 21.

image

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2018-2019.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Light shower or two.
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of light showers or drizzle. Winds southerly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 5:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Friday 11 January

Summary
Min 21
Max 28
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers in the east, grading to a high (70%) chance in the west, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of afternoon thunderstorms, chiefly in the west. Light winds becoming northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h in the afternoon.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 5:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Saturday 12 January

Summary
Min 21
Max 31
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Slight (20%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the west during the afternoon or early evening. Winds north to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 5:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Sunday 13 January

Summary
Min 22
Max 27
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Winds south to southeasterly 25 to 35 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Monday 14 January

Summary
Min 22
Max 28
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Tuesday 15 January

Summary
Min 21
Max 31
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 16 January

Summary
Min 23
Max 35
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h tending northeast to southeasterly later.

Thursday 17 January

Summary
Min 23
Max 30
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds

 


Tiny bumps for the keen

Posted on January 10th, 2019 in Dee Why.

A few hopefuls at the point as of 0720 

Hello Friends,

Back to grey skies this morning and surf prospects are only minimal at Dee Why as of 0720 when I grabbed the pic. There were a few people out at the point for some reason, but elsewhere options were less than enticing. Wind was coming lightly from the south and the latest MHL data from 0500 showed 1.6 metres from the S-SSE (166°) at up to 12 seconds on sets (but more like 7 seconds most of the time).

Wind should pick up as the day goes along and swing more to the SE later. Tide is currently coming into the 1.67 m high at 1145. There’s a 70% of a light shower as we head to a high of 24 along the coast.

The Goat should be along later with his weekly prognostications, and as always I’ll be reading it closely. From the shape of the models this morning though, I’m not expecting he’ll be talking about any dramatic improvement over the present rather marginal conditions.

Have a great Thursday and keep on smilin’!

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to southeasterly in the afternoon, reaching 20 knots offshore.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 50% chance of showers.

Friday 11 January

Winds
Easterly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the morning then becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm inshore in the late afternoon and evening.

Saturday 12 January

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Waves to be had on Wednesday morning

Posted on January 9th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Knee high at the point and waist plus on the beach at 0630

Bomb set 0630

A few little lines up toward No Mans

Hello Friends,

At 0630 there were clean little waves showing along the beach and even occasionally at the point. Sets were up to chest high, but for the most part I’d call it knee to waist with plusses. Wind early was WNW 6-7 kts. It’s set to pick up from the north soon and then swing S-SE by late morning. Looking at the MHL data from 0400 the average stuff was coming mainly from the SSE-SE with an average period of 6 seconds and a height of 1.3 metres. However the directional spectrum chart also indicated some component in the 10-15 sec range from the south, and it’s likely that which is delivering the bomb sets.

As of report writing time, the next tide was the 1.72 m high at 1110. We’re due to see a high of 25 along the beaches and there’s a 70% chance of a shower this afternoon. Outlook is for the surf conditions to revert to smaller again over the next week. The long range predictions currently show next week being little changed over the marginal to micro stuff we’ve been putting up with so far this summer.

Have a top old Wednesday everyone!

Weather Situation

A high pressure system near New Zealand extends a ridge towards southeast Queensland and is generating north to northeasterly winds ahead of a southerly change moving through southern and central parts of the coast this morning. The change is expected stall and weaken off the Mid North Coast on Thursday, with north to northeasterly winds extending across the Waters once again during Friday. Another southerly change is forecast along southern and central parts of the coast during the weekend.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots shifting south to southeasterly in the late morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning, then increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.

Thursday 10 January

Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to southeasterly during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.

Friday 11 January

Winds
Easterly 10 to 15 knots turning northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the evening.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.

Yay sunny, boo puny

Posted on January 8th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hazy, lazy morning

Tiny, just catchable bumps at 0820

Hello Friends,

A hazy start to the day, but nice to have a sunny one again after our run of gloom. Wind was light SSE (3kts) as of 0800 at North Head. There were a couple of bods in the water just up from the club when I grabbed the pics this morning at 0820. As you can see, the surface conditions were smooth but the line was rather indistinct on account of the tide (1.75 m high at 1030) and the slight south-SSE swell (1.1 metres at 10 sec apart from 165° as of  0600). There’s a 60% chance of a light shower later and we should see 29C on the coast. Apart from North Curly lagoon entrance, Beachwatch says all beaches are clean and sea temp is still on 19C.

If the NEr does its thing into the evening hours, there’s a likelihood that tomorrow’s surf options will be similar to today’s. And if the models are accurately fortelling our fates for the next few days, the morning sessions should produce a little something – but the emphasis is on little. None of this morning’s modelling suggests any significant change to the basic swell size settings.

Have yourself a top old Tuesday everybody!

 

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge towards southeast Queensland, generating north to northeasterly winds along the far north coast of New South Wales. The next southerly change is expected along the southern and central coast on Wednesday. The trough will stall and weaken around the central coastline on Thursday with winds to the south of it tending to the south of the trough.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and early evening.

Wednesday 9 January

Winds
Northerly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots offshore early in the morning. Becoming southerly 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
1st Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.

Thursday 10 January

Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots turning east to southeasterly during the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Drippy and drizzly start

Posted on January 7th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Another low-visibility drizzling morning at RealSurf HQ, so while I wait for the murk to lift, a quick tour of the weather data…
As of 0840, North Head was seeing a light 6-8 kt breeze from the SE. The wind should pick up a litle as the day goes along while it also swings around to the NE by this afternoon. At 0600 the MHL buoy was detecting 1.3 metres of 8-second bump from the south (162-164°). First tide of the daylight hours is a 1.77 m high at 1000, the 0.37 m low happens at 1635. Today’s high along the coast is set to reach 24C and Beachwatch is reporting 19C water along with ‘pollution possible’ warnings at Birdwood Park, North Curly and Queenscliff due to the recent and continuing percipitation.
The showery weather looks like lasting through to Friday.
Surf outlook is equally ho-hum. At best the Sydeny region can expect knee to waist high thanks to the short period metre to metre and a bit swell. Direction is expected to swing more to the east tomorrow and to stay that way through midweek before going back again to the south.
I’ll try to post a pic once the murk lifts.
Have a great Monday one and all!

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge towards southeast Queensland, generating north to northeasterly winds along the far north coast of New South Wales, while a trough about the Mid North Coast weakening. Southerly winds to the south of the trough will turn east to northeasterly today as the trough dissipates and the high reasserts influence. The next southerly change is expected along the southern and central coast on Wednesday.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning east to northeasterly about 10 knots in the afternoon and evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy.
Tuesday 8 January
Winds
Northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the day.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Wednesday 9 January
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots turning south to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the day.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.


Cool and grey with little bumps

Posted on January 6th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Small line appears at the point 0845

Hello Friends,
Wind was straight south at 10-15 kts when I climbed aloft for this morning’s snap, but interestingly Dee Why didn’t look too blown out. As the picture shows, there were a few keen types in the water chasing the small waves coming off the 7-sec 2.4 metre dead south swell out at sea. Size along the beach seemed to be in the waist plus range. Tide was just off its 1.77 m high at 0920. There were a few spitty drops in the wind and the Bureau expects only occasional light showers.
Outlook is for the wind to push up later in the day and unfortunately surf prospects are not great according to the long range models. There should be some residual south bump tomorrow morning, but right now the rest of the week is looking pretty quiet unfortunately. The most optimistic prediction shows a little bump Thr-Fri, but we’re only talking waist to chest at this stage.
Have a top old Sunday everyone!

Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 20 to 25 knots, reaching up 30 knots offshore during the morning. Winds decreasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon and turning southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy.
Monday 7 January
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning east to northeasterly during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy.
Tuesday 8 January
Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning northerly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon.


 

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