Posts in Surf Reports

Swell beginning to arrive this morning

Posted on February 14th, 2020 in Surf Reports.

Hello Friends,

Swell started coming up a little before dawn. Conditions were looking pretty messy though and with a southerly expected to blow all day, most spots are going to remain lumpy and junky.

First chance to see the beach for me this morning was at Manly. Swell building and there were people in the woofy looking water at South Steyne and at the Bower. The beach is beginning to max out and it looks like the crowd at the Bower is doing a lot of waiting around for the occasional makeable one

Curl Curl and Dee Why are big but too junky and confused to surf. Looks like Crescent the place to be.

Dee Why beach driftwood etc

Dee Why point mess at 0900

Curl Curl unsurfable

Splash at south Curly

A few in the water at south Steyne

Crowd at the Bower doing a lot of waiting

Sets bumping up at Queenscliff bombie

Weather Situation

A high pressure system centred near New Zealand is directing east to northeasterly winds onto the New South Wales coast. Over the next few days ex-Tropical Cyclone Uesi, currently located just to the southeast of Lord Howe Island is expected to move to the south to southwest. This system is currently not expected to directly impact New South Wales but it will bring periods of increased surf and southeast to southwesterly winds to parts of the coast from today.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning southerly 15 to 20 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Swell
Easterly 1.5 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning and then to 3 to 4 metres in the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Saturday 15 February

Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots tending southwesterly before dawn then turning south to southeasterly below 10 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Easterly 3 to 4 metres, decreasing to 2.5 to 3 metres during the morning, then tending southeasterly 2 to 2.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Mostly sunny day. The chance of a thunderstorm in the late afternoon and evening.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions in the morning are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Sunday 16 February

Winds
South to southeasterly below 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on February 13th, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

Update

The eye is currently roughly 600 ks east of us.

 

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 13 February 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

What interesting weather we’ve been having eh… and more interesting weather is coming our way…

All eyes are on TC, now Ex TC Uesi, which is set to continue its southward journey as an intense Low down the Tasman Sea….Latest Forecast Track map is below. It’s expected to be out off Sydney on Friday, but for Sydney the Bureau is forecasting light winds and rain here. However , we will see its swells. In fact if you looked at the ocean this arvo you’re already seeing the start of those.  It’s not expected to stick around here very long, which is fine, but as it keeps moving south then south east to pay a visit to NZ’s South Island by Sunday, we’ll still have waves from it all week. The size and direction of the surf we get will change as it moves south.

Now before you get too excited>>>

a) the Bureau has Large Surf warnings up for some days, as the waves will have a bit of oomph, so they will only be for the experienced, and

b) I wouldn’t recommend going in the ocean at the moment anyway.

Our much needed rain has given everything a great flush out, with the result that the ocean water is putrid.  As lagoon creeks and rivers along the coast including the Hawkesbury pour out, and runoff from stormwater drains send rubbish out, the ocean has turned to a foul looking, deep, dark chocolate colour…

Which is sort of Nature’s Warning to Stay Away.

Just for the academic heck of it… watch the changing swell direction as it hits our coast…

Friday: somewhere in the 1-5 – 2 metre range East North East, with ommph, and coming up into the 2-3 metre range East North East/East

Saturday: somewhere in the 3-4 metre range East, with oomph

Sunday: easing back a little in the 1.5-2 metre range South East, as the Low visits NZ, but sends back prolonged waves

Monday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range East South East

Tuesday: coming up again, 1.5-2 metres South East and with long range oomph

Wednesday: similar but sort of easing a bit South East

Thursday: up again, somewhere in the 2-2+ metres range South East

It’d be pretty to watch if it weren’t for that water colour, floating debris, and who knows what else in the water.

TG

Up in the Air

BoM says “Ex-tropical cyclone Uesi expected to cause destructive winds at Lord Howe Island this evening.” (Thurs 13/2) Latest Forecast Track map

and http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

 

Latest Colour Mean Sea-Level Pressure Analysis and Infrared Greyscale Satellite

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8

Down in the Sea

Water temp

image

Tides

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Shower or two.
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, becoming less likely later this evening. Winds easterly 15 to 20 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Friday 14 February

Summary
Min 21
Max 26
Possible morning shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers in the morning. Light winds becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the late evening.

Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Possible morning shower. Sydney 21 26
Possible morning shower. Penrith 20 27
Possible morning shower. Liverpool 20 27
Possible morning shower. Terrey Hills 19 24
Possible morning shower. Richmond 20 28
Possible morning shower. Parramatta 19 26
Possible morning shower. Campbelltown 19 26
Possible morning shower. Bondi 22 24

Saturday 15 February

Summary
Min 19
Max 27
Late shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny morning. Medium (60%) chance of showers in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Light winds.

Large and powerful surf conditions in the morning are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Sunday 16 February

Summary
Min 20
Max 25
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 9:20 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Monday 17 February

Summary
Min 20
Max 25
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds.

Tuesday 18 February

Summary
Min 21
Max 26
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds.

Wednesday 19 February

Summary
Min 20
Max 23
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.

Thursday 20 February

Summary
Min 18
Max 23
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming east to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


Weak, bumpy but not flat

Posted on February 13th, 2020 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Swell looks to have faded overnight but it’s not totally unsurfable. According to the MHL buoy at 0400, there was 1.8 metres of ESE at 10 second periods. It wasn’t the most interesting looking start to the day either. Skies were solidly overcast and there’s a 90% chance of more rain. Tide was low at 0610 and will be back to 1.89m high at 1225. Water looks ordinary and Beachwatch was advising that pollution was possible pretty much everywhere.

All eyes are on the likely arrival of a brief spike into the big range from the east as an ex-cyclone moves across our swell window in the next 24-48 hours. I reckon the Goat will have a few thoughts on that front later today…

Small and messy at Curly

Dy

Heaps of weed and woofy looking water at Dee Why

Heaps of weed and woofy looking water at Dee Why

Dy surfer

Wave at Dee Why point about 0900

Wave at Dee Why point about 0900

Weather Situation

A high pressure system centred near New Zealand is directing east to northeasterly winds onto the New South Wales coast. Over the next few days Tropical Cyclone Uesi, currently located to the south of New Caledonia, is expected to move to the south to southwest. This system is currently not expected to directly impact New South Wales, however, it may bring periods of increased surf and southeast to southwesterly winds to parts of the coast from Friday, depending on its movement.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
Easterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Friday 14 February

Winds
Easterly 10 to 15 knots turning southeasterly in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Easterly 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Saturday 15 February

Winds
Southeast to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots tending southwesterly during the morning then tending southerly during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
Swell
Easterly 3 to 4 metres, tending southeasterly 2 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Waves around

Posted on February 12th, 2020 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Checked Collaroy and Long Reef this morning around 0800 and there are definitely waves in the shoulder to head plus range to be had. Swell’s coming mainly from the SE out at sea but looks more east along the beach. It’s about 9 seconds apart. Out at sea it was averaging 1.8 metres as of 0600. While you didn’t have to wait long for sets, you did have to be lucky to find a section. I watched a group just south of Marquesas for some time and didn’t see anyone catch a wave until the bloke in today’s hero pic paddled south and found a makeable one. Same deal at Longy. Not a lot of people in the water, but although they had size, waves were mostly shutting down. Still, if you’re in the water long enough, you’re getting a wave this morning. You might also be getting a skin or respiratory souvenir as well from the murky, polluted looking water.

High tide’s a swampy 1.9 metres at 1130, then it drains out to very low 0.2 m at 1800. Lots of movement on that front today.

Bureau says we can expect SE onshores as the day gets going. Early risers got the clean conditions I’d say. Prospects look reasonable size waves right through the weekend. The Wavewatch model is predicting a kick up in size for Saturday as we feel the influence of a low moving out of the Coral sea toward the north coast. Could be into the 3 metre, 13 second range. ECM’s a bit less hopeful on the size front, but both models are predicting light offshores for the morning session. Hope the water’s a bit better looking…

Have a great Wednesday!

 

Rider scores one at north Collaroy

Brief section at Longy 0800

Heading south of the lagoon at Longy

Near The Pole

 

 

Weather Situation

A high pressure system centred near New Zealand is directing east to northeasterly winds onto the New South Wales coast. Today a southerly change will affect southern and central parts of the coast, associated with a cold front passing to the south. This change is expected to decay during Thursday as the high pressure system and northeasterly winds once again become dominant. Meanwhile, Tropical Cyclone Uesi, currently located near New Caledonia, is expected to take a southwards track over the coming days. This system is currently not expected to directly impact New South Wales, however, it may bring periods of increased surf and southeast to southwesterly winds to parts of the coast from Friday, depending on its movement.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
East to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the evening. Winds inshore tending southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the day.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly around 2 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Thursday 13 February

Winds
Easterly 15 to 20 knots tending northeasterly in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
Swell
East to northeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Friday 14 February

Winds
East to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots turning southeasterly during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm

Sun and surf

Posted on February 11th, 2020 in At large.

Hello Friends,

If you’re keen and willing to run the risk of a nasty infection, there are head high and a bit wave faces to be found. There were a few people at the point, but it looked kinda messy. Things were a little cleaner but still raw up the beach toward Longy. Like all the other lagoons, Dee Why was opened during the storm and has disgorged a nice old dollop of all the street run-off and lagoon goop into the line up.

Tide is coming into a deep 2 metre high at 1100. The MHL buoy shows primary swell is coming at us from the SSE, but there’s an obvious smaller component out of the NE to E. Primary swell was 2.6 m at 10 seconds as of 0500.

It looks as though the swell will fade a little over the next 24 hours, but from the shape of the forecast models, we should have waist to shoulder high sets through the rest of the week. Right now the weekend is looking rather interesting. Both the ECM and Wavewatch models show an influx of 3+ metre southerly swell and light to moderate S-SW wind. Here’s hoping!

Have a top old Tuesday!

Zippery little left at Longy

Peak near the Pole

A few folks messing about at the point

Near the Pole at 0730

 

Weather Situation
A strong high pressure system lies over the southern Tasman Sea, while a weakening low pressure trough lies near the New South Wales coast. Northeasterly winds across coastal waters will continue to ease today as the coastal trough weakens. A cold front passing to the south of New South Wales on Wednesday will bring a southerly change to the southern half of the coast, before the high pressure system and northeasterly winds once again become dominant for the end of the week.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Easterly around 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Wednesday 12 February
Winds
East to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots. Winds inshore possibly turning southerly 10 to 15 knots in the morning.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Easterly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Thursday 13 February
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Swell
Easterly 1 to 2 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.


Smaller but smoother……

Posted on February 11th, 2020 in Surf Reports.

Mona at 6.30am. Swell on the fade but clean faces. Should be waves all day. Early is best.

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Sent from my iPhone


Foamy south Narrabeen

Posted on February 10th, 2020 in Surf Reports.

Went down to south Narrabeen to see what was happening near high tide. Swell was big and scrappy. Totally unsurfable storm stuff. But sea foam was piling up down toward Marquesas, so I went down and grabbed a few pictures…

Foam piling up just north of Marquesas building

Channel 9 team on the scene

SMH snr photog N. Moir (r) and colleague shooting foam monsters

Foam scupluture


Swell still solid …….but unruly

Posted on February 10th, 2020 in Surf Reports.

Swell is still very solid, but there are some deceptively long lulls.

Will need a while to clean up but there should be some nice waves on offer when it does. Maybe tomorrow.

Here are a few shots in the Newport / Mona area…..

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Mona pool washing machine….. on rinse cycle.

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They don’t call it ‘Whomp’ for nothing!

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Sent from my iPhone


Heavy fog early

Posted on February 10th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Swell peaked last night and looks to be dropping rapidly – not that it much matters. Conditions are extremely messy and junky, plus the water is highly likely to be polluted with run-off. Next tide is a 2.02 m high at 0955.

Will try to add a picture or two when the fog lifts.

Weather Situation
A strong high pressure system to the south of Tasmania extends a ridge into the Tasman Sea, while a trough lies along the New South Wales coast. This pattern is bringing strong and gusty onshore winds to over the southern half of the coast today, reaching gale force at times. Conditions are expected to gradually ease from later part of Monday onwards as the high and trough both weaken.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots during the morning. Winds decreasing to 10 to 20 knots by midday.
Seas
2.5 to 4 metres, decreasing below 2.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metre around midday.
Swell
Easterly 3 to 4 metres during the morning, decreasing to 3 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm during the morning and afternoon.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Tuesday 11 February
Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots offshore in the late evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Wednesday 12 February
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.


Not fit for man nor beast

Posted on February 9th, 2020 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Went down to the beach for a look just on high tide. Wind was roaring and the pelting rain soaked me in seconds, so I couldn’t get any decent pictures. You’d have to be barking mad to try surfing in these insane conditions.
As we approach midday, wind is still smashing along at 40-50 kts and the rain’s continuing. At 0900 the MHL buoy was logging swell height and sea heights of 6-10 metres (looked to be 3-4 metres when I took the pictures). Period was 11 seconds and the energy was coming from ESE around to ENE.
Tomorrow looks like being almost as crazy as today. If you don’t care about water pollution, it may be surfable by Tuesday. Weather looks showery for the rest of the week.
Stay safe and dry!

Roaring wind and rain with a high tide surge cutting the beaches back

Kids getting wind blasted

 

Weather Situation

A strong high pressure system to the south of Tasmania extends a ridge into the Tasman Sea, while a trough lies along the New South Wales coast. This pattern will bring fresh and gusty onshore winds to most coastal waters today and Monday, becoming strong to gale force in some areas as the coastal trough deepens. Conditions are expected to gradually ease later Monday and Tuesday as the high and trough both weaken.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Gale Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Easterly 30 to 40 knots.
Seas
4 metres.
Swell
Easterly 4 to 5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. Near 100% chance of rain. Rain heavy at times.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Monday 10 February

Gale Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Easterly 25 to 30 knots, reaching up to 35 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds tending northeasterly 20 to 30 knots before dawn then decreasing to 15 to 25 knots in the morning.
Seas
2.5 to 4 metres, decreasing below 2 metres during the morning, then decreasing to 1 metre around midday.
Swell
Easterly 3 to 4 metres, decreasing to 3 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 95% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Tuesday 11 February

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Swell
Easterly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.