Posts in Surf Reports

Postcards from Cali: crazy weather

Posted on January 10th, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Diamond Head and rainbow

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Let’s get the Sydney surf situation taken care of before the postcards…

At 0950 there was a light and steady 7-9 kt SSE breeze knocking the top off another day of gutless and tiny wind bump. That said, it does appear from the cams that it’s a touch bigger (ankle to waist) than when I last saw it. If you have to miss it, you aren’t missing much of anything. Judging from the forecast models, the situation should stumble along more or less as it is until Friday when there might be a little south pulse with NE wind combo.

The long range models are showing prospects for an intense south swell event, but it’ll likely be smashed by the wind (also south) for a couple days before possibly settling down into some fun conditions mid next week.

The flight from Oz to the US west coast involved a brief stop in Honolulu, so I can report that there was very little if anything showing on the town side. Did get a nice picture of Diamond Head and a rainbow as we climbed out again for the leg to LA.

Got into California after dark so didn’t get a look at the (non) surf situation until yesterday. No hope of a wave sadly. And the same again today (see below).

California had it’s first significant rain event in 300 days last night. We saw 75-100 mm and because of the terrible fires of a couple of weeks ago, there’s nothing on the hillsides to stop the water from carrying huge amounts of mud and debris down onto the coastal plain. As I write this the 101 Freeway that runs along the coast near where the fires were is still closed from all the stuff coming off the hills and mountains. It’s a really big deal and we’re still waiting to hear what sort of death toll there’s been. 8 people were killed by mudslides in the Montecito area just south of Santa Barbara – and there may be more. Helicopters have been flying over our place all day as they help with the rescue efforts. Scary stuff.

Hope you’re staying safe and well!

 

Weather Situation

A trough along the mid north coast is slowly moving northward, with northerly winds shifting southerly in its wake. The trough is expected to stall on the far north coast on Thursday and then dissipate, as a high pressure system moves east over the southern Tasman Sea and extends a ridge to the coast. This will cause winds to shift north to northeasterly throughout by Friday, freshening ahead of the next front, which will bring a vigorous southerly change to the coast during the weekend.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds tending southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing to 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy.

Thursday 11 January

Winds
East to southeasterly below 10 knots tending east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Friday 12 January

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Northy better than Dee Why

Posted on January 7th, 2018 in North Narrabeen, Surf Reports.

30 plus in the water at Northy where there are actually little catchable waves every now and then. Competition looks fierce for the soft and slow waist high sets. Heaps of families strolling past as I watch. Cooling the kids off ahead of the heat. Summer time.

Not sure if I’ll have a report for you tomorrow but if i do it’ll be from the other side of the Pacific.

Catchy soon and stay cool!


Hot early and tiny but

Posted on January 7th, 2018 in Dee Why, Surf Reports.

Thought I’d beat the heat with an early bike ride. At Dee Why as I tap this out. There are people in the water all along the beach. Main attraction is keeping cool as for most part it’s too gutless and micro to catch – even on a mal. Tide is low and wind not a factor yet.

Guess I’ll ride up to Northy for a look…


Barely anything and mostly flat

Posted on January 6th, 2018 in At large.

Chasing tiny bumps on low tide at Northy 0620          .

Hello Friends,

Low tide early and light NE breeze ruffling the surface for the dawn patrol. The only place I saw a wave ridden was at Northy where, as the pic above shows, it was struggling to make the knee high mark. As the tide comes in to a 1.8 m high at 1230, the wind will ramp up and so it just may be possible to find a fat little bump somewhere. However, you’ll really need to dial down your expectations for anything beyond barely catchable dribble.

As of 0400 the MHL buoy was showing a metre of sub-6 sec SSE chop. And it looks as though the microscopic conditions prevail up and down the entire East Coast.

We’re in for an absolute stinker tomorrow but there might be a bit more NE wind chop to chase for the early. It’s set to go SE in the afternoon – which ought to help with the heat, but won’t do the tiny surf any favours.

From the look of the models, next week is going to be really small to flat with only short period and small wind chop.  One of the more hopeful data interpretations is showing some slight hope for south magnets on Wednesday morning. Hope for your sake that it plays out that way. I’ll of course be looking for a wave in southern California where at the moment it’s also really small – and cold. Postcards to come!

Have a great Saturday everyone!

 

South Narra nothin’

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Marquesas micro bumps

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At least he’s getting some exercise – near the pole 0630

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All’s quiet at Dee Why

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Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is directing north to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. A low pressure trough is expected to bring a southerly change to the southern half of the coast on Sunday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Winds reaching 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Sunday 7 January

Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots shifting south to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Monday 8 January

Winds
South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending northwest to northeasterly during the morning then tending northeast to southeasterly during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.

Paddling conditions excellent

Posted on January 5th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Not a hint of a line at the point at 0720

Up the beach, nothing going on

Kiddies almost as calm as a lap pool at 0720

Hello Friends,

If only we had swell. It’s a beautiful morning in every respect otherwise; light offshore breeze, sunny skies, incoming tide… but it’s a lake.

And the outlook? Well the Goat’s latest ruminations are right here

Have a great Friday everyone!
 

 

Weather Situation

A high pressure system near Tasmania extends a ridge to the north, directing southeast to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. Winds will turn north to northeasterly during Saturday as the high moves over the Tasman Sea and a trough approaches from the southwest. This trough will bring a brief southerly change is along the southern half of the coast on Sunday.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Saturday 6 January

Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the late afternoon. Winds reaching up to 30 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Sunday 7 January

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots shifting southerly during the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on January 4th, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 4 January 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

There were some rideable waves in the lower reaches of the 1-2 metre range this morning for keen punters at some places open to pretty much dead South as a result of the strong SSE wind we had over the past couple of days, before the tide got into it. Boy that’s a long sentence for you to get stuck into if you want. Lower reaches ??? He’s talking in riddles.

But they’ve already eased back.  See… Shorter sentences make more sense and are easier to read. But I don’t have time to rewrite it more nicer.

What’s that you say?? …Just get on with it???

Quick summary for you… Small waves. Possibly some mal rides at the right tides, right places. Keep your eyes open for opportunities.  Enjoy the warm water and warmer weather. Watch the extreme UVs, plus a couple of days when the Bureau says there might be Tstorms, and take precautions. Stay cool. And keep smiling. (I know they aren’t sentences… Just consider them to be bullet points to start preparing you for the working and study world soon). Keep smiling I said!

Friday: maybe around 1 metre or so or less at places open to dead South

Saturday: ditto

Sunday: around 1 metre or so of North East windswell

Monday: ditto

Tuesday: ditto but a little bit bigger

Wednesday: about the same as Tuesday, maybe a touch more

Thursday: about 1 metre or so North East

In the Sky

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Jan  4 04:30:00 2018

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jan  4 00:00:00 2018 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windyty.com/

In the Sea

Water temp is around 22,23… nice

Lots of nice warm water up and down the East Coast, from Byron 26 to Eden 22.

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

The king tides (Highs over 2 metres) we’ve had over the past few days will gradually start to ease back. But they will still be high Highs and low Lows (say that quickly) for a while.

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 25
Cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers in the morning and early afternoon. Light winds.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Cloudy.Sydney25
Cloudy.Penrith31
Cloudy.Liverpool29
Cloudy.Terrey Hills25
Cloudy.Richmond31
Cloudy.Parramatta28
Cloudy.Campbelltown29
Cloudy.Bondi22

 

Friday 5 January

Summary
Min 18
Max 28
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Saturday 6 January

Summary
Min 20
Max 31
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Hot and mostly sunny. Light winds becoming northeasterly 25 to 35 km/h during the day.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 14 [Extreme]

Sunday 7 January

Summary
Min 23
Max 37
Hot and mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Very hot and mostly sunny. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming west to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning then shifting south to southeasterly 25 to 35 km/h during the day.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Monday 8 January

Summary
Min 21
Max 33
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 5 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Hot. Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers, most likely later in the day. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h tending northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning.

Tuesday 9 January

Summary
Min 21
Max 24
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h shifting south to southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning.

Wednesday 10 January

Summary
Min 21
Max 26
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


Near flatness

Posted on January 4th, 2018 in Dee Why.

SUP rider on the hunt for a bump

Might be an ankle to knee high something

Hello Friends,

There seemed to be very slightly more activity than yesterday, but it’s still just barely catchable looking at Dee Why. The MHL buoy was showing 1.6 m of 8-sec of SSE (149°) wind bump – which the Bureau says will fade later in the day.

Wind was light from the SW at 0800 and the King tide was coming into a 2.05 m high at 1045. The grey skies may sprinkle on us this morning too. The day’s high is set to be 25 and UV will be 13 (extreme) from 0840 to 1710. Water temp is around 22.

The Goat should be along later today with his usual weekend and week ahead outlook. If the models are anything to go by, my guess is that he’ll be calling it small to flat for another week. I’ll be sending postcards from Cali from next week, and right now it would seem I’ll find the same abject flatness but with 15° water. There does seem to be some hope for a one-day wonder pulse Weds-ish though…

Have a great day everyone and go well with your plans!

 

Weather Situation

A trough lies to the northeast of the state, while high pressure system over the Bight extends a ridge through Victoria to the New South Wales Coast, promoting southerly winds along the coast. This high is moving east and is expected to be centred over the Tasman Sea on Friday, with winds turning northeasterly during Friday and Saturday as a result. A cold front will then skim across the south of the state on Sunday, bringing a southerly change to southern and central waters.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots turning east to southeasterly below 10 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Friday 5 January

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Saturday 6 January

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

King tides, pauper waves

Posted on January 3rd, 2018 in Dee Why.

Nothing doing at Dee Why as of 0600

Faint chop and nothing more

QF76 and full moon – 14 hours after leaving Vancouver

Hello Friends,

10 kts of SW wind and partly cloudy skies as of 0600, but still no waves. The latest MHL data from 0300 was showing 1.5 m of 5-sec south wind bump and that, plus the wind, plus the incoming king tide at 0956 meant no waves for Dee Why.
Outlook is for the ocean to remain quiescent today – and for well into next week.
Wish it was otherwise, but there ya go. At least we’re another day closer to the waves returning.
Have a great day everyone!

Weather Situation

A southerly surge, associated with a cold front passing to the south, is forecast to reach the north coast during today. Meanwhile, a high pressure system in the Bight extends a ridge to the east. This high is expected to move to the Tasman Sea later Thursday and Friday, bringing a gradual shift to generally northerly winds over New South Wales waters.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm during the morning and afternoon.

Thursday 4 January

Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable below 10 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Friday 5 January

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Missable Tuesday morning

Posted on January 2nd, 2018 in Dee Why.

Flat conditions at 0800

Barely a hint of any activity at the point and in the corner

Hello Friends,

I can keep it very short for the first Tuesday in 2018 – it was flat at Dee Why as of 0800.

Looking around at the cams, it would seem the best you can hope for is a ankle to knee high at stretches optimally aligned to the short period SSE bump. Tide is a deep 2 m high at 0905.

The Bureau’s modelling shows a very brief short period south swell event tomorrow morning, but there’ll be south wind with it , so the quality outlook is not too exciting. But at least there’s a prospect of non-flatness.

After that the models show a return to short-period flat to near flatness well into next week. But, the long range call for 10 days out currently is a little more hopeful. We’ll see… by then your correspondent will be watching and commenting on the indicators from the other side of the planet.

Have a great Tuesday everyone!

Weather Situation

A weak trough will stall then decay on the northern coast during today. A more vigorous southerly surge associated with a cold front passing to the south is forecast to move along the coast on Wednesday, while a high pressure system in the Bight extends a ridge to the east. This high is expected to move to the Tasman Sea later Thursday and Friday, bringing a gradual shift to generally northerly winds over most waters.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Winds
South to southeasterly about 10 knots becoming east to northeasterly in the late afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm later tonight.

Wednesday 3 January

Winds
Southerly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots before dawn.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.

Thursday 4 January

Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots becoming southeasterly about 10 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Happy New Year 2018

Posted on January 1st, 2018 in Dee Why.

Little bumps only

Maybe surfable right in the corner

Quiet up the beach

Happy New Year Friends,

Traditional late start for me this morning. When I finally climbed aloft around 0910 for a look at the situation, the sun was beating down, the wind was light and appeared to be very small to near flat at Dee Why. We’re heading to a high of 28 along the beaches today under mostly sunny skies (extreme UV from 0840-1700). Tide was a deep 1.96 m at 0810 and is now dropping to a 0.19 m low at 1450. The MHL buoy was seeing a metre of 6-sec east wind bump as of 0700, so figure on ankle to knee with maybe the occasional waist on the bombs. Also figure on full force crowds because it’s such a perfect beach day.

From the look of the models, the short period barely there wind bump is likely to dominate for the front half of the week, but we could see a slight uptick in energy Wednesday when it seems we’ll also have southerlies and showery weather.

Some of the long range models are a bit more hopeful for early next week when you might start seeing average periods creeping up into the 10-sec range and swell coming from the ESE in the metre-ish category. By then your correspondent will be in the northern hemisphere for a few weeks.

Have yourself a top old New Year’s Day and best of luck if you go for a splash!

 

Weather Situation

North to northeasterly northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast ahead of a weak and brief southerly change on the south and central coasts during Tuesday. A stronger southerly change associated with a cold front crossing the southern Tasman Sea is expected to develop along the south coast late Tuesday and extending to the north coast overnight.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the middle of the day then becoming south to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Tuesday 2 January

Winds
Variable about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Wednesday 3 January

Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers.

 

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