Posts in Surf Reports

Waves for Friday morning

Posted on November 10th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Light wind for the early and 1.6 m of 11 second SE swell under sunny skies made for fun looking knee to waist plus waves along the beach and at the point. Tide was low at 0745 and is running into a 1.7 m high at 1410. It should stay sunny all day and get to a mild 23. Winds should stay light but they’ll be coming around to the SE.
Interestingly after not look all that hopeful yesterday, this morning’s call from the Bureau is for the swell to come up from the SE and they’re expecting some long period component that could result in unexpected sets. Interesting.
And for the look ahead, well, the Goat dropped his predictions for the coming week last night.
Have a great Friday everybody!

Shutdowns and peaks at No Mans 0735

Waist to waist and a bit at the point 0735

Nice looking section

Weather Situation

A high pressure system near Tasmania extends a ridge along the New South Wales coast. This pattern will change very little over the next few days as the high gradually drifts across the southern Tasman Sea, maintaining southeast to northeasterly winds over most waters.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 0.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Caution
Surf conditions in the afternoon and evening may be more powerful than they appear and are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Saturday 11 November

Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower in the morning and early afternoon.
Caution
Surf conditions may be more powerful than they appear and are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Sunday 12 November

Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on November 9th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf forecast issued Thursday 9 November 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Waves of some sort all week. Light winds too but mostly light onshore for several days courtesy of a couple of big Highs slowly meandering across the bottom of the continent. If you don’t mind light onshores the surf could be sort of ok at places open to South swell where there are still some banks left after all that large messiness, which has only started to ease back today.

Over the next couple of days there will still be swell arriving from way down South. Smaller waves have started to settle down on their journey up the coast and joined themselves  together to form swells, so you can expect some long periods between sets, even though it’ll be mostly in the 1-2 metre range.  The BoM has a couple of warnings in the weather below

Friday 10/11: in the 1-2 metre range dead South, with sets, eased back from today early on but then expect some larger sets later

Saturday 11/11: up in the 1-2 metre range, with sets, dead South

Sunday 12/11: down a bit in the 1-2 metre range dead South, but likely there’ll still be sets

Monday 13/11: lower end of the 1-2 metre range but with sets, South East

Tuesday 14/11: low end of the 1-2 metre range East South East

Wednesday 15/11: down more to around 1 metre or so East/ North East

Thursday 16/11: 1 metre or so East/ North East.

And a couple of notices if I may.. I have your attention anyway …

On Sunday 12 November, Avalon Beach SLSC will be holding a Fun Gala Day to raise awareness of mental health issues and raise funds for Lifeline.  It’ll take place from 9am to around 11am, involving all ages of club members from Nippers through to Masters as teams in water and beach events (replacing regular Nippers events).  The Club will set up water event areas taking account of all beachgoers, boardriders and ensure a safe flag area for swimmers. If you’re planning to visit Avalon on Sunday please be aware and understand these areas will be subject to surf conditions on the day, sandbank locations, and the rocks in the middle of the beach. Everyone is welcome to watch and to make a donation to Lifeline in collection tins which will be at the surf club and at the Max surf lookout in the middle of the beach.

Also on Sunday Ken Davo Davidson, one of the surf club’s original toothpick board riders will be turning 90.  Everyone is welcome to wish Ken happy birthday with a coldie at the club from 5pm when the bar will be open to everyone, members and visitors, whether you know him or not!

And Don’t Forget Remembrance Day on the 11th of the 11th (Saturday)

Have fun!

TG

Up in the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Nov  9 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Nov  9 05:30:00 2017

Wind

https://www.windy.com/?-33.817,151.201,5

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 19.

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Clear.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Clear. Winds easterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Friday 10 November

Summary
Min 14
Max 23
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Early fog patches in the west. Light winds.

Surf conditions in the late afternoon and evening may be more powerful than they appear and are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing and swimming.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

 

Saturday 11 November

Summary
Min 16
Max 23
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower in the morning and early afternoon. Light winds.

Surf conditions may be more powerful than they appear and are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing and swimming.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Sunday 12 November

Summary
Min 16
Max 22
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Patchy morning fog in the west. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Monday 13 November

Summary
Min 14
Max 23
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Tuesday 14 November

Summary
Min 15
Max 23
Morning shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely during the morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Light winds.

Wednesday 15 November

Summary
Min 15
Max 25
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Thursday 16 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 26
Showers increasing.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day


Fun looking late morning

Posted on November 9th, 2017 in Dee Why, Surf Reports.

1130 and some fun shoulder high stuff coming through for a small crew at the point. Wish I could be in the water with them…


Waves for the morning crew

Posted on November 9th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Sunny skies and a forecast for light and variable winds combined with a low tide at 0650 helped the 2 metre 9 second swell to look interesting enough to attract a solid crowd to the point. Set wave faces were head and a bit on the bigger ones. The swell had a raw look to it and the main action was clearly at the point rather than along the beach. Tide will peak at 1.78 m at 1305.
Swell’s predicted to fade steadily across the day and this morning’s swell modelling by the Bureau and others suggests that the coming week will be pretty small. The Goat should be along with his forecast later, so as always I’ll be keen to see what he says after applying his decades of experience to the outlook.
Get out there this morning if you can is my advice and, however it plays out, hope you have a top old day!

Solid crew on it at 0650

A few hopefuls up toward No Mans

Bomb set catches the crowd out

Weather Situation

A slow-moving high pressure system near Tasmania extends a ridge along the New South Wales coast, generating predominantly southeasterly winds. Winds will tend more easterly on Friday and the weekend as the high drifts across the southern Tasman Sea.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
Variable about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Friday 10 November

Winds
Variable below 10 knots becoming southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Saturday 11 November

Winds
East to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 2 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower.

Messy morning at Dee Why

Posted on November 8th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
15-20 kts of SSE wind ripping into Dee Why from before 0800 was making for messy and unappetizing conditions. At 0500 the MHL buoy was seeing 2.3 metres of 9 second energy from the SSE. Tide was low at 0540 and is currently running into a deepish 1.87 m high at 1210. Skies were partly cloudy at report writing time and we were heading to a high of 20.
The Bureau says it’ll continue SE all day and the swell is expected to fade back to around 2 metres by dark. Tomorrow the waves are set to be smaller again but there could be a little fun wave at south magnets for the early session before the wind gets going.
The pattern of small but surfable in the morning looks to continue on Friday and then on Saturday most of the models show the swell at around the metre mark, but the average period getting into the 15 second range. If that’s the case there could be some interesting activity at the point… we’ll await developments with interest.
Have a happy old Wednesday everyone!

Not exciting up the beach at 0750

Only the most hopeful hunting for bumps at the point

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Bight extends a ridge across New South Wales, while a low pressure system near New Zealand continues to move southeast. The combination of these two systems is generating south to southeasterly winds across New South Wales waters. The high is expected to be the dominant weather system for the region over the next several days as it moves slowly east, with winds forecast to tend easterly along the southern coast by the end of the week.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
South to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots becoming east to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 2 metres by early evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers this morning.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Thursday 9 November

Winds
South to southeasterly about 10 knots becoming easterly in the afternoon and evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Friday 10 November

Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower.

Waves for Dee Why this morning

Posted on November 7th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Sunny skies, light WSW wind at 0730 and a mix of NNE and SSE swell combining to be 3.4 m at 12 sec out at sea. A solid crew in the water at the point to make the most of the opportunities, but not too many in the water otherwise. Sets are into the solidly overhead range as the tide comes off the low and fills into a deep 1.9 m high at 1115. You want to get in early because the wind is expected to go southerly later this morning.

The forecast has the wind staying southerly overnight and into tomorrow morning while the swell still pushes along at about the current size from the south. The longer term outlook is for the waves to stay above the micro threshold over the remainder of the week, but… the wind forecast doesn’t look too friendly. Basically the models are all showing a run of mainly south to SE into the weekend – at least. So, hit it early for the widest range of options…

Have a great Tuesday everyone!

Lines stacking into Dee Why this morning at 0730

Up the beach situation

Weather Situation

A low pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea is moving rapidly southeast towards New Zealand, with strong to gale force southwest to southeasterly winds across coastal waters easing through Tuesday as the low moves further away. In its place, a high pressure system over the Bight extends a ridge across New South Wales. This is expected to become the dominant weather system for the region over the next few days as it moves slowly east, with winds forecast to ease further and tend easterly along the southern coast by the end of the week.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Southwesterly 25 to 30 knots, turning southerly 15 to 25 knots during the morning.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 2.5 to 3 metres.
2nd Swell
East to northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions in the morning are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Wednesday 8 November

Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots tending southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 2.5 to 3 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower in the morning and early afternoon.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Thursday 9 November

Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower.

Collaroy looking fun

Posted on November 6th, 2017 in Surf Reports.


Stormy Monday

Posted on November 6th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Rainy night followed by a morning with heavy overcast and the prospect of more showers. A blustery 15-20 kt NEr was knocking the stuffing out of the Dee Why end of the beach. Couldn’t see anyone in the water, nor any reason for them to be there either. Out at sea swell is a couple of metres from the east but it’s really only chop because the average period is just 6 seconds.
Another day to give surfin’ a pass from the look of it.
Wave activity is set to ramp up tomorrow but there’s a gale warning for raging SW early swinging SE by late morning. Will there be a little window of opportunity for south corners early? I’d say there’s a small chance of a scrappy bump or two, but my confidence isn’t strong.
The rest of the week is a similar mix of will-it-won’t-it where the wind’s concerned, but broadly it looks as though swell energy goes up tomorrow and then starts fading back overnight Wednesday into Thursday.
Have a great Monday everyone!

Messy point at 0730

Messy up the beach too

Weather Situation
A low pressure system over the northwest of the state is generating east to northeast winds along the waters. The low is forecast to move southeastwards, intensifying as it reaches the south coast later today, and then quickly move towards New Zealand on Tuesday. This will bring a vigorous southerly change to the southern half of the coast from this afternoon, then extending throughout by early Tuesday. Gale to storm force winds likely over parts of the central and southern waters. Winds are forecast to ease from Tuesday evening as a ridge extends from the Bight to the New South Wales coast.
Forecast for Monday until midnight
Gale Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northeasterly 20 to 30 knots shifting west to southwesterly 25 to 35 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre around midday.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Cloudy. Near 100% chance of rain. A thunderstorm likely, possibly severe.
Tuesday 7 November
Gale Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southwesterly 25 to 30 knots, reaching up to 35 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds turning south to southeasterly 15 to 25 knots in the late morning and afternoon.
Seas
3 to 4 metres, decreasing to 2 to 3 metres around midday.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Easterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions in the morning are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Wednesday 8 November
Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to southeasterly below 10 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 2.5 to 3 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower.


Sleep in Sunday

Posted on November 5th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Light ESE breeze chopping up a feeble SE wind bump under showery and heavily overcast skies for Dee Why. The pictures tell the story: there really isn’t anything that could be described as surf as Sunday kicks off. The wind isn’t expected to back off and the swell isn’t showing much hope of improving either. So, an excellent day to skip it.
Tomorrow promises to be rainier and windier than today and Tuesday’s not looking a lot better. In fact, the onshore and junky conditions appear to be on tap through Wednesday. That south pulse is still on the cards from Tuesday onward, but right now the wind looks like being problematic until Thursday.
Ah well, so it goes. Have a top old Sunday anyway!

Another tiny and junky morning for Dee Why

Blergh.

Weather Situation

South to southeasterly winds will shift east to northeasterly today as a low pressure system develops over the northwest of the state. This low is forecast to move southeastwards, intensifying as it reaches the south coast later Monday, and then quickly move towards New Zealand on Tuesday. This will bring a vigorous southerly change to most of the coast later Monday or during Tuesday morning, with gale force winds likely over parts of the central and southern waters. Winds are likely to ease Tuesday evening as a ridge extends from the Bight to the New South Wales coast.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Winds
East to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots offshore during the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers.

Monday 6 November

Gale Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast

Winds
East to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots shifting west to southwesterly 30 to 35 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Easterly below 1 metre, tending northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then tending east to northeasterly 1.5 to 2.5 metres around midday.
2nd Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. Near 100% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.

Tuesday 7 November

Winds
Southwesterly 30 to 35 knots turning southerly 20 to 25 knots during the morning.
Seas
2 to 4 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.

Small and junky Saturday morning

Posted on November 4th, 2017 in At large.

Hello Friends,
An unprepossessing Saturday morning for surfers on the Northern Beaches. Dull grey skies dropping the odd sprinkle, a meandering but mainly southerly breeze and only a feeble 8-sec period metre and a bit south wind swell struggling against an incoming 1.8 metre high tide.
The pictures tell the sad story of gutless knee to waist high dribble. You have to be super keen and to be equipped with your floatiest surf toy. Otherwise it looks like a great morning to sleep in or to go for a coffee before the bicyclists start turning up.
Sadly the surf outlook is not too exciting for the remainder of the weekend and if the models are to be trusted, it could be mid-week before our next pulse arrives. Some of the more hopeful interpretations of the data are predicting 12-14 sec, 3 metre south energy filling in sometime late Tuesday, peaking Wednesday morning and then fading but still in the fun range through to the weekend…
So have a great Saturday and keep your fingers crossed for mid-week!

What passed for action at Kiddies around 0630

The Pole crew looking (mostly in vain) for something catchable

Narrabeen stretch

Sole wave hunter tries to catch lump of chop at south Narra 0625

Booming action at North Narrabeen, 0620


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.
.
.
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Weather Situation
A trough will extend a southerly change through the northern waters today, reaching the Queensland border in the evening. A ridge is forecast to extend along the coast behind the trough, with winds gradually shifting northeasterly on Sunday as a high develops over the Tasman Sea. Another southerly change is expected to affect most waters during Monday as the next trough crosses the coast. A low pressure circulation likely to be embedded within this trough may generate especially vigorous wind along the southern half of the coast.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots easing to south to southeasterly to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the evening.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers.
Sunday 5 November
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning east to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers.
Monday 6 November
Winds
Northeasterly 25 to 30 knots shifting southwesterly 25 to 35 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
1st Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, tending northeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of rain.


 

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