Posts in Surf Reports

Little bumps but not flat

Posted on November 3rd, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Our midweek pulse has faded overnight and while the MHL buoy was picking up 1.8 m of 10-sec SSE (158 degrees), the point looked to be waist high and inconsistent. Today’s high tide is a 1/7 m swamper at 0810, so that would definitely have been a factor when I grabbed the pics. Surface conditions were pretty smooth thanks to the light NW breeze. It’s set to pick up soon and then to weaken and go more NE this afternoon. I reckon the best shot for a little fun wave is more likely to be found up toward Longy or around at Curly maybe. But, you can probably get the odd bump anywhere along the beach.
As usual the astonishingly reliable Goat dropped his latest forecast last night so scroll down for his wisdom or jump straight to it here.
Have a great Friday!

Waiting for a peak at 0730

Bods at the point hoping for something


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Weather Situation
A low pressure system over the Tasman Sea is continuing to weaken as it moves southeast, and a weak ridge of high pressure extends across New South Wales. The ridge will decay today as a trough brings a southerly change to southern and central parts of the coast, continuing to the Queensland border during Saturday. A new ridge will extend along the coast behind the trough, with winds gradually shifting northerly on Sunday as a high develops over the Tasman Sea. Another southerly change is likely early in the new week.
Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots becoming north to northeasterly about 10 knots in the early afternoon then shifting southerly 15 to 20 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm late this afternoon and evening.
Saturday 4 November
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots turning southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers.
Sunday 5 November
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning east to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots during the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers.


TG’s Surf Forecast

Posted on November 2nd, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 2 November 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

After the wind and the cold and the waves that weren’t attractive to almost everyone from the Low that formed down south, there’ll be a short intermission, giving the impression that things are starting to look up, but then… And then… Sigh …Can’t say there’s much on offer for the average punters in the coming week. When/if it’s rideable or there are banks at some sheltered south spot, it’ll probably be best left to the keen, fit, experienced, or desperate.  Others may find it more satisfying to get back to those jobs around the house.

Friday: starting to calm down from today’s messiness, say around the upper end of the 1-2 metre range, with bigger sets occasionally, South East, probably still bumpy

Saturday: after an expected southerly change Friday evening, it’ll start to come up again in the 1-2 metre range dead South but not formed swell to get into protected corners, just windy messy

Sunday: upper end of the 1-2 metre range dead South/ South East with sets, maybe into S corners

Monday: around 2, 2+ metres East South East, and there’s another Low expected to form off the coast

Tuesday: say in the 2-3 metre range early on, then easing back

Wednesday: 2-2 + metres dead South with some solid sets

Thursday: 2-3 metres dead South

If you’re keen for all that…Yay for you..

If that’s not entirely what you’d call fun surf, then be content knowing you’re not alone 🙂

Keep smiling

TG

In the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Nov  2 06:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Nov  2 07:30:00 2017

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-33.881,151.180,5

In the Sea

Water temp is around 20.  Whales are still heading down the coast in small groups, not far out.

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds easterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

Friday 3 November

Summary
Min 16
Max 26
Late shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers in the late afternoon and evening, with the risk of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming westerly 15 to 25 km/h in the afternoon, with northeasterly seabreezes developing near the coast. A gusty southerly change 25 to 35 km/h in the evening.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

 

Saturday 4 November

Summary
Min 15
Max 19
Showers easing.
Possible rainfall: 8 to 15 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers, mostly in the morning. Winds south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

Sunday 5 November

Summary
Min 15
Max 20
A few showers.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 5 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

Monday 6 November

Summary
Min 16
Max 24
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 15 to 30 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers. Winds northwest to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h tending southerly 20 to 30 km/h during the afternoon.

Tuesday 7 November

Summary
Min 14
Max 21
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers, mostly during the morning. Light winds becoming southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 8 November

Summary
Min 13
Max 20
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Thursday 9 November

Summary
Min 14
Max 22
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

 

 

 


Little Collaroy

Posted on November 2nd, 2017 in Collaroy, Surf Reports.

Just in case you were wondering…. collaroy had the odd slim mal wave to mess about on this morning as tide was high.


Pretty crazy at the point

Posted on November 2nd, 2017 in Dee Why, Surf Reports.

Hello Friends

Stopped by the point for a look a little before 0900. Tide was very high and as the pictures show, the surface conditions and swell were pretty rugged and challenging for the dozen or so in the water.


Swell roaring for the early

Posted on November 2nd, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Had just enough time to post pics but not much else… so more later when I get back from the beach… Looks pretty crazy and out of control but there are people in the water at the point, so I’ll drop by for a closer look in the next hour or so.

Very consistent at 0740

No Mans not looking approachable

A smaller set wave gets ridden at 0740


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Weather Situation
A deep low pressure system over the Tasman Sea is moving slowly to the south. In combination with a high developing over the Bight, this will maintain fresh to strong southwest to southeasterly winds and powerful surf conditions over southern and central waters this morning, after which the low will begin to weaken and winds ease. Winds will turn briefly northerly over most of the coast on Friday ahead of a southerly change moving through later on Friday and during Saturday.
Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds
South to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore during the morning. Winds tending southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day then turning northeasterly in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Swell
Southerly 3 to 4 metres, decreasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers this morning.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Friday 3 November
Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots tending northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon. Winds shifting southerly 15 to 25 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing to around 1 metre around midday.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore in the afternoon and evening.
Saturday 4 November
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots turning east to southeasterly below 10 knots during the day.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers.


Dee Why on low tide

Posted on November 1st, 2017 in Dee Why, Surf Reports.

Midday and strong slideshows were making the conditions pretty ordinary. Set faces were overhead but they were crumbly and kind of lumbering slowly along. Skies were mostly clear and there wasn’t much of a crowd chasing the lumps.tomorrow morning could maybe be interesting.


Swell kicking in this morning

Posted on November 1st, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Short version: shoulder plus on sets, light sideshore, cool, reasonably consistent.

Quite a nippy morning thanks to the steady WSW and mostly cloudy skies. As expected the swell ramped overnight and this morning bomb sets at Dee Why point were into the shoulder high and above range. Up the beach it looked to be a bit smaller and kind of lined up and shutting down. At 0500 the MHL buoy was showing 2.3 m of 11-sec of dead south swell. We had a 1.5 m high tide at 0650 and we’ll be back to dead low at 1245.
Wind at 0750 was WSW 10-15 kts, but as you can see below, it’s expected to be 15-25 kts later and the swell is set to increase to 4 metres by evening.
Both the swell and SW wind are on tap for tomorrow morning. From the forecasts it looks as though there could be a few little waves around on Friday but then it seems we could be back to choppy and small southerly conditions.
Have a great day everybody!

Set at the point 0730

Reasonably consistent

Activity up the beach toward No Mans at 0730


Weather Situation
A slow-moving low pressure system over the western Tasman Sea is deepening. In combination with a high developing over the Bight, this will maintain fresh to strong south to southwesterly winds and powerful surf conditions over southern and central waters for the next couple of days, after which the low will begin to weaken.
Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
West to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore during the day.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2.5 to 3 metres, increasing to 4 metres by early evening.
Weather
Cloudy. 30% chance of a shower.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Thursday 2 November
Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds turning southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 to 2 metres around midday.
Swell
Southerly 3 to 4 metres, decreasing to 2.5 to 3 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower offshore, near zero chance elsewhere.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Friday 3 November
Winds
Variable below 10 knots becoming northerly 10 to 15 knots during the morning then tending southeast to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots during the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 2 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.


Breezy and small

Posted on October 31st, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

A sparkling post-change morning for Tuesday in Sydney. A classic southerly buster yesterday afternoon swept away the heat and flicked the wind swell around to the south. As of 0400 the MHL buoy was showing 2.3 metres of 9-sec dead south out at sea. Three hours later when I grabbed the pics, there was a hint of a line at Dee Why but for now anyway, the swell is staying out to sea. It’s missing the point and seems to be around the knee to waist mark at No Mans. It should be bigger up the north end and over the hill at Curly.
Wind was SW 10-15 kts at North Head as I wrote this and tide was dropping from the 1.36 m high at 0605 to the low at noon. The wind should stay SW but pick up into the 20-25 kt range as the day goes along.
Tomorrow should see the swell ramp up and the wind to stay SW but throttle back. With luck it’ll still be pushing along into Thursday morning.
Have a great day everyone!

Pretty but still small at 0710

Plausible looking high tide line at No Mans


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Weather Situation
A deep low pressure circulation is expected to develop over the western Tasman Sea today. In combination with a high developing over the Bight, this will maintain fresh to strong south to southwesterly winds over most waters through much of the week, with the potential to generate large seas.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
South to southwesterly 20 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore during the day.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers offshore, 60% chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm during the morning and afternoon.
Wednesday 1 November
Strong Wind Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore during the day.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, increasing to 4 metres by early evening.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of showers offshore, 30% chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore in the early morning.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Thursday 2 November
Winds
Southwesterly 20 to 30 knots turning southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 3 to 4 metres, decreasing to 2.5 to 3 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower.


Very small Monday

Posted on October 30th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Headed for a hot day before a gusty southerly change late this afternoon. In the meantime we should see northerly wind springing up over the next few hours. As you can see from the pictures, there’s no hint of a wave at the Dee Why end of the beach. A quick scan of the cams along the beaches confirms that everywhere is pretty much in the same situation. And it’s highly likely the micro conditions will last all day.
Once the southerly comes through we can expect the swell to start filling in. The models which had looked so-so yesterday are now predicting around 3 metres of south energy by tomorrow afternoon. Wind outlook isn’t great for the morning, but by late afternoon we could see the southerly swinging more SW, in which case there could be waves at the point. The SW’ly flow looks like continuing through Wednesday and the Bureau’s modelling is joining in with the others to predict 3-4 metres of south energy. Could be interesting!
In the meantime, have a great Monday and fingers crossed for a midweek pulse.

Little rime of whitewater along the rocks at the point, but no waves as of 0730

Up the beach… no waves to be seen


Weather Situation
A front will bring a strong and gusty southerly change to the southern coast this morning, continuing through central areas in the afternoon and evening, before reaching the Queensland border early Tuesday. This system is expected to spawn a deep low pressure circulation over the western Tasman Sea during Tuesday. In combination with a high developing over the Bight, this looks set to maintain fresh to strong southerly winds over most waters through much of the week, with the potential to generate large seas.
Forecast for Monday until midnight
Gale Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots ahead of a gusty southerly change 25 to 35 knots in the late afternoon or early evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres in the evening.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny morning. 40% chance of showers in the late afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon.
Tuesday 31 October
Gale Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
South to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots, reaching up to 35 knots offshore early in the morning.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers offshore, 30% chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.
Wednesday 1 November
Winds
South to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Southerly 2.5 to 3 metres, increasing to 3 to 4 metres during the evening.
Weather
Cloudy. 50% chance of showers.


Waves for Sunday morning

Posted on October 29th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Contrary to expectations there were little waves to be had at Dee Why this morning. Nothing amazing of course, but if you can have fun on knee to waist high wind bumps, you’d be having fun.
Wind was light from the NW and swell was around the 1.4 m mark and coming from the E by ESE (113°) at 9-sec apart.
Tide was dropping to the low at 0950 and then it’ll run back in to a 1.4m high at 1615.
By the time we’re back to high tide, the NE’r should be pushing in at 15-20 kts and the surf conditions will be summer marginal (ie choppy, close together and gutless wind waves)
Tomorrow morning could see a rinse and repeat of today, but then from Tuesday onward we get into a southerly regime. Yesterday’s hopeful features on the models for midweek have become today’s less interesting prospects. The latest run of the models points to short period, choppy wind from the south with south wind for Weds-Thursday.

Little activity at the point as of 0730

 
Weather Situation
North to northeasterly winds will continue over New South Waters waters today, as a vigorous cold front approaches from the southwest. This front will bring a strong and gusty southerly change to the southern coast Monday morning, continuing through central areas in the afternoon and evening, and reaching the Queensland border early Tuesday. This system is expected to spawn a deep low pressure circulation off the southern coast during Tuesday. In combination with a high developing over the Bight, this looks set to maintain strong southerly winds over most waters through much of the week, with the potential to generate large seas.
Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
50% chance of showers this morning. Sunny afternoon.
Monday 30 October
Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots shifting southerly 20 to 30 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres by evening.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny. 60% chance of showers offshore, 30% chance elsewhere.
Tuesday 31 October
Winds
Southwesterly 20 to 30 knots turning southerly 25 to 30 knots during the day.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning.


 

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