Posts in Surf Reports

Knee to waist and a bit messy

Posted on April 7th, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Rather junky and bumpy everywhere this morning thanks to a light but steady SE-ESE breeze all night. Surf size is knee to waist and maybe a bit on the biggest ones. The MHL buoy was picking up 1.5 m of 11 second south to SSE swell but I have to say that it looked pretty soft and weak everywhere. Definitely marginal conditions, but equally definitely not flat. This morning’s low tide was a 0.65m at 0725 and it’ll come into a moderate 1.2 m high at 1320.

Weather should be mostly sunny with a high of 28°. Ocean’s on 22° and all beaches are clean according to Beachwatch.

Wind will go around to the NE later today, so that may possibly improve things a bit in the north corners.

Outlook for tomorrow and Monday is a bit better than today with more favourable winds and a steady supply of small but more easterly swell. There seems to be some prospect of better than average conditions in the back half of the week with some models calling for light north wind and 2m, 14s SE swell….

Shout out to any ocean swimmers who may not have heard, the Newport to Avalon Ocean Around the Bends swim is on tomorrow.

Have a great Saturday everyone!

Near the Pole 0630

 

Longy bomb set

 

Rare catchable one at the point 0630

 

No Mans

 

Northy crew 0620

 

Kiddies bumpy and soft

 

Weather Situation

A slow-moving high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge towards southeast Queensland New South Wales. This high will direct east to northeast winds over most of the New South Wales coast this weekend, apart from a brief southerly change along the southern coast overnight. On Monday a low pressure system will move east across the southern Tasman Sea, while the high remains over the the northern Tasman. A trough associated with this low is forecast to bring a second southerly change, moving through the southern and central coast on Monday and the north coast on Tuesday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds
East to northeasterly about 10 knots tending north to northeasterly to 15 to 20 knots in the middle of the day. Winds reaching up to 25 knots inshore in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon, then increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres by early evening.
Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Sunday 8 April

Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Monday 9 April

Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots shifting southerly during the day.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
1st Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny

Small and lightly southerly early

Posted on April 6th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Not much going on at the beach this morning, but there are weak little lines producing the odd knee high to maybe waist-ish set for keen punters. The period hasn’t changed much since this time yesterday. It’s still about 10 seconds, but the direction has gone more east while the average height at sea has come down a touch over the last 24 hours and is currently bumping along in the one metre range.
As of 0720 the wind was south at about 10 kts, skies were clear, but there was a light, foggy haze along the beaches. The Bureau tells us we can expect the wind will come up a little more and swing SE. We’re heading to a 27° high under mostly sunny skies. UV intensity is easing with the season change, so your slip-slop-slap window is 0900 to 1440. Water quality is rated as good everywhere and the ocean’s a balmy 22°.
Tide was low at 0630 and is currently coming back up to a 1.26 m high at 1225.
And the outlook? Well, the mighty Goat is keeping his unbelievable string of weekly predictions going into its third decade and you’ll find the words of wisdom down the page.

Tiny line at No Mans 0700

Little line gets caught at the point while others wait inside at Kiddies for a turn  


 
 
 

Weather Situation

A slow-moving high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge towards northeast New South Wales, and is directing east to northeasterly winds over coastal waters. A trough with a weak associated southerly change will stall and decay about the central parts of the coast today as the high reasserts its dominance. This high is expected to prevent the incursion of any significant cold fronts until the early part of next week.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots, becoming south to southeasterly 10 to15 knots inshore later this morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Saturday 7 April

Winds
North to northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the middle of the day. Winds reaching up to 25 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon, then increasing to 1 to 2 metres by early evening.
Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Sunday 8 April

Winds
Northerly 10 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
1st Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on April 5th, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 5 April 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

  • Beautiful day.. blue sky .. sunshine.. birds twittering ..warm air… What more could you want???!!

Waves ???  Well there were pleasant waves at the right places, right tides if you were able…

I’m tired after being able to enjoy it all, and I want a little lie down now… perhaps to dream…

So I won’t take up any more of my time, and I’ll be brief…

Friday: size similar to today, around 1 metre or slightly more toward the middle of the 1-2 metre range East

Saturday: low to middle of 1-2 metre range East

Sunday: around the middle of the 1-2 metre range East. Perfect conditions for the Newport to Avalon ocean swim and the Avalon Surf Swims…Don’t drive Round the Bends…Swim Round the Bends! Get your entries in here

http://www.oceanswims.com/swims/calendar/eventdetail/366/54/avalon-nsw-e.html

Monday: Middle of the 1-2 metre range East

Tuesday: coming up from the South East in the 1-2 metre range

Wednesday, Thursday: my eyes are getting droopy and the crystal ball looks foggy, but there could be a little something coming up from the East South East… let’s just wait a bit and see when things are clearer.

That’s enough for now.

TG

Up in the Sky

TC Iris looks like wetting FNQ but is not expected to come down south at this stage.  A run of Highs are in store for us…continuing the run of nice weather (nice if you don’t depend on rain falling).

MSLP Analysis for Thu Apr  5 00:00:00 2018 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Apr  5 03:30:00 2018

Wind

https://www.windy.com/?-33.942,150.872,5,i:pressure

Down in the Sea

Water temp

image

Tides

 

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 27
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the early afternoon then becoming light in the late evening.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 2:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Mostly sunny.Sydney27
Mostly sunny.Penrith31
Mostly sunny.Liverpool30
Mostly sunny.Terrey Hills26
Mostly sunny.Richmond30
Mostly sunny.Parramatta29
Sunny.Campbelltown30
Mostly sunny.Bondi25

Friday 6 April

Summary
Min 18
Max 27
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon then tending southeasterly in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 2:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

Saturday 7 April

Summary
Min 18
Max 28
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds southeast to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light during the morning then becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 2:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

Sunday 8 April

Summary
Min 19
Max 27
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h shifting east to northeasterly during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 2:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

Monday 9 April

Summary
Min 18
Max 30
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming southerly 15 to 20 km/h later.

Tuesday 10 April

Summary
Min 19
Max 28
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning southeasterly during the morning.

Wednesday 11 April

Summary
Min 19
Max 28
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:20 pm EST Thursday.

 


Clean little waves this morning

Posted on April 5th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Although the Bureau says we have a 50% chance of a shower during the morning hours, as of 0700 skies were largely clear over the beaches and wind was coming lightly from the NW.  Tide was coming off the 0540 low and heading toward a moderate 1.3 m high at 1140. As the pictures show, the swell has perked up a little this morning. Waves were in the knee to waist high range from the point to No Mans. It looked a bit soft and slow, but as the pictures indicate it was clean and the lines were distinct. According to the MHL data of a couple hours earlier, it was 1.4 m at 10 seconds from the south. The spectral data also shows some small, 10+ sec component from the NNE.

It should warm up to 27 later and the wind will come around to the NE at 15-20 kts. Water is clean and the ocean is currently 23oC.

Being a Thursday, we can look forward to the astoundingly reliable Goat to share his thoughts about the surf prospects for the coming week. I wonder if he’ll spot anything interesting for us…

Go for a splash if you can, and have a great Thursday everyone!

A little line at the point for the hopefully waiting

No Mans showing potential

Kiddies crew at 0645

 

Weather Situation

A slow-moving high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge towards northeast New South Wales, and is directing east to northeasterly winds over coastal waters. A trough will bring a weak southerly change to the southern coast later today, before stalling and decaying over central parts on Friday as the high reasserts its dominance. This high is expected to prevent the incursion of any significant cold fronts until the early part of next week.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
Northwest to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by evening.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
50% chance of showers this morning. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore this morning. Sunny afternoon.

Friday 6 April

Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching 20 knots offshore in the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Sunny.

Saturday 7 April

Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the evening.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres tending easterly during the morning.
Weather
Sunny.

Cloudy breezy morning with very small but not flat conditions

Posted on April 4th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Not totally flat this morning, but you could get a soft knee to waist high dribbler if you were keen. At 0600 wind was south at around 8-10 knots and the MHL data from 0400 was showing 1.6 m of 13-second SSE swell energy. Tide was low at 0455 and will be back to a moderate 1.4 m high at 1050. The weather forecast calls for a high of 25 and there’s a 60% chance of the odd shower. Beachwatch reports an ocean temp of 23°.
Outlook is for the swell to stay at around the current level of a metre-ish, give or take 0.3 m for the next couple of days, as the Goat might say. Not a great outlook, but not utterly hopeless. The long range models are showing reasonable prospects for fun knee to chest high conditions at the start of next week and marginal, often onshore prospects between now and then.

Have a great Wednesday everyone!

Not clean but not a total disaster either at 0630

Hopefuls at the point and at Kiddies on a small and bumpy morning 

 

 

Weather Situation

A trough near the central parts of the coast will linger and possibly move south before weakening today, as a high pressure system moves east from the Bight to the central Tasman Sea. Winds will turn east to northeasterly this evening with a southerly change expected along the southern half of the coast on Thursday and Friday.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
East to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning northeasterly in the late afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Thursday 5 April

Winds
Northerly 10 to 15 knots becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Friday 6 April

Winds
South to southwesterly change 10 to 15 knots in the morning, then becoming north to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots by the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
East to northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Sunny.

Are you really keen?

Posted on April 3rd, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Cloudy skies and a steady 10-15 kts of SE wind make for a grey and choppy sea. The swell has bumped up overnight and as of 0600 was 2 metres at 8-sec from the SE. At 0700 there was a single person in the water at Kiddies and they didn’t seem to be catching anything. Which isn’t too surprising given the tiny, weak and messy conditions. Tide is currently coming into a 1.5 m high at 1015.
The cloudy skies should break up later and the wind shouldn’t be much stronger than it is now. But it’ll still be SE, so we’re in for a day of junky, weak and small conditions. And the next couple of days don’t look too exciting from a surf perspective. Friday may see a slight improvement but I’m not expecting anything too wonderous.  The very long range forecasts are not too cheerful it has to be said. If they have it right, we’re stuck with weak and dribbly conditions more or less into the middle of the month. Here’s hoping they’re wrong!

Have yourself a fine old Tuesday.

One extra keen person in the water at 0700

Up the beach, nothing much

 

 

Weather Situation

A trough associated with a Southern Ocean cold front has stalled about central parts of the coast. This trough is expected to linger before weakening tomorrow, as a high pressure system moves east from the Bight to the central Tasman Sea. Winds will turn east to northeasterly from late tomorrow with a southerly change expected along the southern half of the coast later in the week.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Winds
South to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Wednesday 4 April

Winds
East to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning northeasterly in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Thursday 5 April

Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending northerly during the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Ankle snappers

Posted on April 2nd, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Getting close to lake like conditions at Dee Why this morning. I’d call it ankle to knee high on the beach (the point’s asleep).

Looking at the latest numbers from 0900, what little energy we have is coming from the east at about a metre, with a period in the 8-second range. There’s also some 13 sec component, but I saw no evidence of it. High tide was 1.65m at 0935. Wind was a light SW’ly.
Outlook is for wave heights to bumble along at around the current intensity – if that’s the word – through the rest of the week. Some models show us getting a small uptick into the waist plus range Friday and then a futher bump on Saturday thanks to a ramping up of the period. Beyond that, the long range models are being hopeful about fun conditions for the front half of next week and then puny to flat after that.
As always, it’ll be what it will be, so keep on smilin’ and have a top old Easter Monday!
 

Only hope of a wave is in the Kiddies shories 0930

Micro looking at No Mans

 

 

Weather Situation

A slow moving high pressure system near New Zealand with a ridge to the northwest is directing north to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. A southerly change associated with a cold front is expected along the south and central coasts during today.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots shifting southerly 15 to 25 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm late this afternoon and evening.

Tuesday 3 April

Winds
Southerly 20 to 25 knots turning southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the morning and early afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy.

Wednesday 4 April

Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots tending east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Sunny Sunday after the fog

Posted on April 1st, 2018 in Dee Why.

Fog burned off pretty quickly this morning and it has revealed paltry conditions at Dee Why. The 1.7 m high tide at 0850 is not helping the 1.2 m, 8-sec east (109°) wind bump. But the hopefuls were on it, chasing ankle to knee high baby waves at Kiddies. Wind was light but should gradually get up into the 15-20 kt range from the north.
Surf prospects for the week ahead are not looking overly exciting. Tomorrow could be a touch better than today but a late southerly change makes Tuesday and Wednesday look sub-optimal. Things could perk up for Thr-Fri with a potential little east pulse filling in. And it might build a touch for a fun session Saturday am.
Have yourself a top old Sunday!

No Man’s near flat

Tiny bumps at Kiddies, nothing at the point

The morning crew hanging out at Dee Why 0720


Foggy start to Sunday

Posted on April 1st, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Foggy start to what promises to be a warm Sunday. Visibility was down to 100m when I tried to see the beach from the crows nest at 0615. So I took a couple of pictures for something to do. I’ll grab some shots of the beach when it lifts.

The MHL data from 0500 showed 1.2 m of 9 second east swell, so there might be a little something around. Maybe. Tide is heading to a 1.7 m at 0850. Wind was 5 kts from the north as of 0640.

More in a bit when I can see something!

 

Foggy trees at 0615

Sun through the fog

 

Weather Situation

A slow moving high pressure system over the Tasman Sea with a ridge to the northwest is directing east to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. A weak southerly change associated with a cold front is expected along the south and central coasts during Tuesday.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Monday 2 April

Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the early afternoon ahead of a southerly change 15 to 25 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre around midday, then increasing to 1 to 2 metres later in the evening.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning, then increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Tuesday 3 April

Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots tending southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy.

SSE Saturday

Posted on March 31st, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,

The SSE wind was blowing 15-20 kts from before sunrise. It was overcast and out at sea the MHL buoy was seeing 1.7 metres of 9-sec bump from the SSE (160°). Tide was building to a swampy 1.8 m at 0905. And there’s a 40% chance of a shower. Lovely.
Outlook broadly speaking is for the energy levels to stay around their current intensity through to Thursday when some of the models are showing a faint uptick from the east along with light winds early.
Ah well, have a great Saturday anyway and keep on smilin’
 

A few in the water at Northy as of 0700

Far north Collaroy set

The overview, not great.

One person at the point as of 0700

Not busy at Kiddies

Lay of the land at Dee Why this morning

Sorta plausible maybe inside at Whiterock


 

Weather Situation

Southeast to northeast winds are expected to affect most of the state’s waters today with a ridge extending to the northern New South Wales coast from a high near New Zealand and an almost stationary trough lying across the coast near Seal Rocks. The trough weakens on Sunday as the ridge becomes more predominant, bringing east to northeasterly winds to much of the coast. A weak southerly change is expected along southern parts of the coast later Sunday, before a stronger southerly change, associated with a cold front moving through Bass Strait, affects southern and central parts of the coast during Monday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots turning northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 50% chance of showers.

Sunday 1 April

Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Monday 2 April

Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots shifting southerly during the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

 

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