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I’m sure the buzz around the place right now is all about today’s conditions – and spectacular sun rise – but Sunday delivered some pretty awesome conditions...
Surf Photos of You ::::: There were a few nice fun waves at South Narrabeen this morning 5th May 2012 between 8 – 9 am Although I was told that it was heaqps better about...
Surf Photos of You::::::The Curly MalJam Pro was held at North Curl curl in small but clean conditions. Check my Surf Gallery for some great pics of a well organised Longboard Comp...
Queenscliff popped nicely between 12-2pm on Sunday arvo with plenty of action taking place from the edge of the rock pool (more like cess pool – have you seen it lately?!) half...
The swell that started arriving mid last week continued right through the weekend much to the delight of all the punters who stayed in Sydney for Easter. Not only did we experience...
It’s time to take a look back to the most popular shots for the month of March 2012, in Byron Bay today. This year March began as a month already straining under the weight of much...
Posts in Weather
BoM: Could be a busy Tropical Cyclone season
Posted on December 22nd, 2010 in Top stories, Weather.Found this on the BoM site…
Seasonal Outlook for Tropical Cyclones
For the full Australian region, there is a high degree of confidence that the total number of tropical cyclones will be above average (see Table 1). The forecast values from the two models (20-22) are significantly higher than the long-term average value of 12.
Table 1 Forecast values for the 2010/11 Seasonal Outlook for Tropical Cyclones (TCs) for the four main tropical cyclone regions and the northwest WA sub-region (105°E to 130°E).
Region Chance of more TCs than average Likely number of TCs (average number) Confidence (LEPS skill1)
Australian region 98% 20-22 (12) High (46%)
Western region 93% 11-12 (7) High (31%)
Northern region 67% 5 (4) Low (3%)
Eastern region 87% 6-7 (4) Moderate (21%)
Northwest WA 75% 7-8 (6) Low (7%)
The likely number of tropical cyclones is indicative only. It is expected that the total number of tropical cyclones will be in the vicinity of the values listed, and not necessarily within the given range. The values are the most likely number of tropical cyclones forecast by two models.
Regional features
The largest increase in tropical cyclone numbers is expected to occur in the Western region, where 11-12 tropical cyclones are forecast (4-5 more than the average value of 7 tropical cyclones).
For the Northern region, an average to higher than average number of tropical cyclones is expected with 5 tropical cyclones being forecast (the average value is 4 tropical cyclones). However, as the statistical model used to produce this forecast has low skill in this region, this prediction should be used with some caution.
The Eastern region is expected to experience a higher than average number of tropical cyclones, with about 6-7 tropical cyclones being forecast (the average value is 4 tropical cyclones).
The outlook for tropical cyclones in the area from 105°E to 130°E, where tropical cyclones can impact upon coastal WA communities, shows a 75% chance of above average tropical cyclone numbers for the 2010/11 season. However, forecast confidence for this region is relatively low.
This outlook covers the period from July 2010 to June 2011. Most tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere occur from November until April.
via Seasonal Outlook for Tropical Cyclones.
BoM severe weather warning
Posted on May 28th, 2010 in Top stories, Weather.28 May 2010
Significant Weather Media Release
Severe Weather Alert for Coastal Areas of Southern NSW on Sunday
A developing weather system is forecast to bring severe weather to some coastal districts of southern NSW on Sunday.
A low pressure system is expected to deepen off the southern NSW coast early Sunday morning and move northwards.
“The low will bring very heavy rain to a wide area, leading to possible flooding. Very strong to gale force winds are expected along the southern coast, which will also result in very dangerous sea conditions and coastal erosion in vulnerable areas. Present indications are that the rain and wind will affect the South Coast early on Sunday, with the wet and windy weather extending to Sydney and the Central Coast late on Sunday or overnight into Monday,” said Barry Hanstrum, Regional Director of the Bureau of Meteorology in New South Wales.
“Our clear message is to keep a close and regular watch on the latest updates of all weather forecasts and warnings.”
“It is too early to predict the precise location of the heaviest rainfall and strongest wind, as this will depend on the eventual position and movement of the centre of the low. However, we are advising people to keep monitoring our forecasts and warnings, as they will be updated as the weather system develops,” said Mr. Hanstrum.
The Commissioner of the NSW State Emergency Service Murray Kear said that the SES has been working closely with the Bureau and is planning and preparing its support for communities likely to be affected by the forecast severe weather.
“Simple preparations undertaken now can help reduce the likelihood of property damage and help keep people safer,” Mr Kear said.
“Clear leaves and debris from gutters and downpipes; where safe, trim overhanging trees and branches; check your roof is in good repair and put away loose items from yards and balconies.”
‘There are many other things that people can do to help prepare themselves, to find out more, go to the SES website at www.ses.nsw.gov.au.”
Futher information:
* Latest NSW Warnings & Forecasts
* Forecast Maps: Rainfall | Wind
* SES Website
* Latest Rainfall Map
* Latest Observations
Watch Ului spin
Posted on March 15th, 2010 in News Stories, Weather.
Check out this spectacular animation of TC Ului and TC Tomas on the NOAA site (thanks to Ted the Kiwi for sending the link!). Tomas is hammering Fiji right now…
A tropical cyclone heading for Fiji may be the worst cyclone to ever strike the South Pacific nation, local police say.
Fiji Meteorological Service senior forecaster, Matt Boterhoven, said Cyclone Tomas had intensified overnight and was now a category four storm.
Boterhoven said the northern island of Vanua Levu was most at risk, with winds likely to peak at over 200 kilometres per hour in the next 24 hours.
LINK
Ului latest…
Posted on March 15th, 2010 in News Stories, Weather.
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 4:52am EST on Friday the 19th of March 2010
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Cardwell to Yeppoon,
extending to the adjacent inland.
At 4:00 am EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 3 was estimated to be
1020 kilometres east northeast of Mackay and
1180 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and
moving south southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului is expected to begin moving in a more southwesterly
direction towards the Queensland coast today. It is expected to remain about the
same strength.
On current predictions the most likely scenario is for the cyclone to cross the
coast Sunday morning between Cardwell and Mackay. However, it is important to
understand that some uncertainty remains in this outlook period.
Damaging winds should develop between Cardwell and Yeppoon during Saturday, and
increase further on Saturday night as the cyclone approaches the coast.
Seas and swell are expected to increase along much of the Queensland east coast.
Dangerous surf conditions are expected to develop about exposed beaches south of
the cyclone later today. A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for these
conditions.
People between Cardwell and Yeppoon should consider what action they will need
to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland’s Disaster
Management Services
website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au].
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage]
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului at 4:00 am EST:
.Centre located near…… 16.7 degrees South 157.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy…….. within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement………. towards the south southwest at 12 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre… 165 kilometres per hour
.Severity category…….. 3
.Central pressure……… 972 hectoPascals
Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am EST Friday 19 March.
…THURSDAY
Looks as though Ului will head toward land before reaching the swell window for folks south of about Coffs…
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 4:50am EST on Thursday the 18th of March 2010
At 4 am EST Thursday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului [Category 3] with central
pressure 952 hPa was located over the north-east Coral Sea near latitude 14.7
south longitude 157.8 east, which is about 1160 km northeast of Mackay and 1350
km east of Cooktown.
The cyclone is moving south at about 6 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului is expected to continue moving in a southerly
direction, and remain well offshore during Thursday.
On Friday the cyclone is expected to turn west-southwest and begin moving closer
to the Queensland coast. On current predictions the most likely scenario is for
the cyclone to impact the Queensland coast during the weekend somewhere between
Cardwell and St Lawrence. However, it is important to understand that some
uncertainty remains in this outlook period.
The windy conditions over much of the Queensland east coastal waters will
continue due to the tight pressure gradient generated by a combination of a high
pressure system situated in the Tasman Sea and Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului.
Seas and swell are expected to increase along much of the Queensland east coast
and produce dangerous surf conditions on the exposed coasts.
The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11 am EST Wednesday.
WEDS….
IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 4:46am EST on Wednesday the 17th of March 2010
At 4 am EST Wednesday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului [Category 4] with central
pressure 937 hPa was located over the north-east Coral Sea near latitude 13.7
south longitude 157.8 east, which is about 1240 km northeast of Mackay and 1370
km east of Cooktown.
The cyclone is moving south at about 4 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului is expected to continue moving in a southerly
direction, remaining well offshore, for the next two days.
On Friday the cyclone is expected to turn west-southwest and begin moving closer
to the Queensland coast. On current predictions the most likely scenario is for
the cyclone to impact the central Queensland coast sometime during the weekend.
The windy conditions over much of the Queensland east coastal waters will
continue due to the tight pressure gradient generated by a combination of a high
pressure system in the Tasman Sea and Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului. Seas and
swell are expected to gradually increase along much of the Queensland east
coast.
LINK to latest from the BoM on Ului
—Tuesday
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 4:51am EST on Tuesday the 16th of March 2010
At 4 am EST Tuesday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului [Category 4] with central
pressure 945 hPa was located over the north-east Coral Sea near latitude 13.2
south longitude 158.5 east, which is about 1330 km northeast of Mackay and 1450
km east of Cooktown.
The cyclone is moving west southwest at about 4 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului poses no immediate threat to the Queensland coast
and is expected to remain well offshore over the eastern Coral Sea for at least
the next few days.
It is expected to adopt a more southerly track today which it should maintain
until late in the week.
Latest track
Latest from the Bureau of Meterology
older reports…
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 4:53am EST on Monday the 15th of March 2010
Latest from the Bureau…
Latest from the Bureau of Meterology
At 4 am EST Monday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului [Category 4] with central
pressure 935 hPa was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 13.0 south
longitude 160.0 east, which is about 1470 km northeast of Mackay.
The cyclone is moving west at about 10 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului lies over the northeastern Coral Sea to the south
of the Solomon Islands. Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului is expected to continue
moving slowly west during the next 36 hours before adopting a more southerly
track.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului poses no immediate threat to the Queensland coast.
The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11 am EST today.
ripples in the dust
Posted on September 23rd, 2009 in Dee Why, Surf Reports, Weather.
Long Reef is out there . . . somewhere
Dee Why Point
Dee Why beachfront - can you believe morons are out jogging and working out in this?
Tiny tiny ripples coming into Dee Why through the dust. Wicked morning.
Byron Bay Today Aug 9 09
Posted on August 10th, 2009 in Byron, Just for fun, Local Colour, Site News, surf photography, Surf Reports, Weather.
- Traffic In Byronaby today.
It was another summery winter’s day In Byron Bay Today. Good God we’ve had it good, with the weather lately. Ok folks there were a few small waves in the bay today, nothing too flash, or powerful. But for the logging crew and the little ones there were plenty of slides to be had. The swell swung a little from the south to the south east allowing a little more size to creep into the bay as the day went on. But as the swell increased the wind slowly swung onshore. However it never really got strong enough to much of an issue, In Byron Bay Today. To all those fabulous folks who chose to pose, thank you, for being here with us In Byron Bay Today.
In Byron Bay Today, important information for our readers & subscribers.
Byron Bay Today Aug 4th
Posted on August 5th, 2009 in Byron, Just for fun, Local Colour, surf photography, Surf Reports, Weather.
- Small but fun In Byron Bay Today
The weather was just beautiful, In Byron Bay Today. We were all expecting a nor-easter to blow through Byron. But it didn’t eventuate. The wind stayed low and the bay was brushed clean by a light offshore breeze all day. The bay is usually quiet with small waves at this time of year, and it’s not unusual to experience warm days with warm water. It’s like a reprieve from the cold as winter begin to shift. People start making noises about summer coming early and that kind of stuff. But oh how quick we forget, it does this every year. We get all wound up in August, about an early summer. But there’s a twist to this story, it catches the whole town by surprise every year without fail. Just as we head into spring the cold returns with a blast driving up the coast all the way from the Antarctic. Be interesting to see if this years the same. In the mean time I say enjoy it while it lasts, lap it up and get out for some sun. Because it’s great to be down the beach in boardies and a tee shirt while it’s still officially winter, In Byron Bay Today.
Byron Bay Today Aug 2nd 09
Posted on August 3rd, 2009 in Byron, Just for fun, Local Colour, Site News, surf photography, Surf Reports, Weather.
- Mellisa manages to score wave of the day, in Byron
Greetings Real surfers, well we’re back at it, In Byron Bay Today. It was a glorious Sunday in the bay with people everywhere, the Byron Markets were buzzing and the sun was out. Meanwhile down at the beach it was offshore and looking a lot like logger heaven. But not looking good at all for the little whiteboards I’m afraid we got those banks again, slow and cruisey. Fun for a moose, but just no juice for anything smaller, even the fishes were finding it hard. Now you’ll want to take a close look around the site. A few things have changed while we were off. Told you we wouldn’t be able to help ourselves. You will find five new people in the Who’s that section, it’s a good and slightly controversal read. We’ve started to list our reviews as well, so make sure you keep an eye on the Latest Reviews section as well. There’s also the Simple Pleasures section. Now this is handy, because there are already discounts in there. We’ve really only just started this section and already there are offers in there worth making use of. You’ll also notice that there’s a little box to the right. That’s the weather, tide, swell and wind info for byron today, so while you’re enjoying checking yesterday’s photos you can be making plans for getting a few waves In Byron Bay Today.
Byron Bay Today July 2009
Posted on July 21st, 2009 in Byron, Just for fun, Local Colour, Surf Reports, Weather.
- Up the lookout the scenery was nice but there wasn’t much swell, In Byron Bay Today.
It was a quiet day for a holiday, In Byron Bay Today. Could it be Mondayitis? Mondays tend to have a bit of a slowdown effect in Byron. Or could it simply be there’s very little swell to speak of ? The weather’s warm and clear, but the wind is increasing from the north, and showing no signs of backing off over the next few days. Hmm hope I’m wrong on that call, but I digress. The rhythm of the bay is very much linked to the quality of the waves and the weather. It’s not looking overly promising for waves in the actual bay over the next couple of days. But fear not little blokes & blokettes, right now is the time to be out and about checking the beach breaks on the open side. I won’t say where as that’s not fair, but I will say this, get your board under your arm and go for walk. We’re looking at a few days of nice conditions for some uncrowded little beachies coming up. Especially if you make the effort to walk past the better know spots, you’ll get waves to yourself. There’s no better story to take back to home than the one about the peak you and your buddies found empty, In Byron Bay Today.
Byron Bay Today’s Weekend Windup 11th July o9
Posted on July 12th, 2009 in Byron, Just for fun, Local Colour, Surf Reports, Weather, weird surf.
- Ooops see it happens to blokes as talented as Mikey In Byron Bay Today
Welcome to In Byron Bay Today’s Weekend Windup. It was a bit of a wintery, windy and woolly old week in the bay. We started off well enough, with glorious weather early in the week, warm with gentle offshore breezes. But by mid week it quickly degraded into windy, wet and bloody cold. All that blustering and yet we didn’t begin to see any real swell until late Thursday. Now if there was a theme for this week, it’s the grossly unprepared surfing population, both residents and visitors alike. People just don’t expect it to get this cold this far north, and so there was much grumbling from the majority about not having enough rubber. Some were turning blue in boardies and vests. The crew have been spinning out about how cold it’s been, but how soon we all forget. We go through this every year in the bay. It can and does get cold here. In fact if you live here you need more variations of wetsuits than further south. Down the coast you get good thick and warm rubber. It does you all winter spring and autumn. But in Byron, well you need a bit of everything, lighter rubber for the warmer days. slightly heavier for the cold and windy days, and an array of differing thickness vests for spring and autumn. Although the water’s warmer, the wind and air temperature can vary quite radically in winter. So when you drive into town pack enough rubber to make a choice. Because in winter it can be summery & warm one minute, and downright bloody freezing the next, In Byron Bay Today.
PS enjoy the BBQ today guys, wish we could be there, being an old Longy buy myself.