If the breeze is coming from the southerly quarters in the early morning hours – and there’s swell – you can hear all the way up the valley to RealSurf HQ on Collaroy Plateau. I could hear it this morning, so I’m not surprised to be telling you that we have some south energy. Early risers beat the incoming tide to get the odd shoulder high set along the beach at Dee Why. There wasn’t much wind early, but as the tide comes in to the high at 0940 the Bureau tells us to expect up to 20kts of southerly at exposed locations. However, it’s then supposed to become variable in the afternoon before going NE in the evening – as the swell fades back.
Looks like a fun one coming up.
Outlook is for the wind to turn offshore tomorrow and for the swell to still be around, albeit at around a metre. Saturday looks smaller again, but the predictions of a solid pulse arriving Sunday are still showing on the various models. Timing is the question as always and there it looks like the betting is running toward late Sunday with the main intensity hitting on Monday. Predictions are all saying dead south, with swell size estimates ranging from about a metre from Sun lunch to a peak on Monday morning of up to 3.5 metres. It looks as though periods will be in the 10-12 second range, so if the high end estimates are right, we’re looking at shoulder to head plus by close of play Sunday, and double-overhead on Monday. Tuesday shapes as being smaller as the swell rolls off to small for Weds.
Taken at 0730
A weak ridge of high pressure has developed across New South Wales in the wake of a cold front which affected the region yesterday. The presence of this ridge will be short-lived, however, as the next frontal system is rapidly approaching from the Southern Ocean. This system is expected to reach western parts of the state early Friday, with a complex low developing on the front as it approaches the southern coast later Friday. Vigorous winds are likely to affect most of the coast through the weekend as the deepening low gradually moves away to the east.
Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Southerly 10 to 15 knots, reaching 20 knots early in the morning, becoming variable about 10 knots in the afternoon then northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by evening.
Friday 2 May
Northerly 15 to 20 knots turning westerly in the morning.
1 to 1.5 metres.
Southerly around 1 metre.
Saturday 3 May
Northwesterly 20 to 30 knots tending westerly 30 to 35 knots during the day.
1.5 to 2.5 metres, increasing to 2.5 to 4 metres during the morning.
South to southeasterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the evening.
Isolated thunderstorms offshore in the afternoon and evening.