Hello Friends,

That big old high over the Tasman just doesn’t want to go anywhere and it’s not helping the surf situation at all. While the size of the NE swell at sea is still around the 1.5 metre mark, the average period is a weak 7 seconds. Admittedly Dee Why isn’t the ideal indicator for NE windswell, so there may be slightly more energy at NE magnets, but I reckon it’ll be struggling to make waist high for the most part. Certainly there wasn’t anything above that level when I checked at about 0900. Huey’s expected to dial the wind up to 15-20 kts later this afternoon, so that might bump the energy levels up a touch.

A S-SW change is expected tomorrow and as a consequence we may see a small improvement to the surf prospects. But I’m not seeing anything dramatic on this run of the models for tomorrow. They are showing a big system forming in the southern ocean in about five days. The forecasts show the main energy staying largely clear of the east coast, but by the weekend the situation could possibly change and we might have some smallish but long period swell pushing in by Sunday.

Have a good one!

TIDES: L @0930, H @1520

Weather Situation

A semi-stationary high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge to the New South Wales far north coast. A cold front will bring a southerly change to the south and central coasts during Monday.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Winds: Northerly 10 to 20 knots tending north to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the morning then increasing to 15 to 20 knots by early evening. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing up to 1.5 metres during the morning. Swell: Easterly 1 metre. Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

Forecast for Monday

Winds: Northerly 10 to 20 knots tending north to northwesterly up to 10 knots around dawn then tending northwest to southwesterly up to 20 knots during the morning. Winds tending south to southwesterly up to 25 knots around midday. Seas: Up to 1.5 metres increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon. Swell: Easterly about 1.5 metres.

Forecast for Tuesday

Winds: South to southeasterly 10 to 20 knots becoming southerly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon then decreasing to 10 knots during the evening. Seas: Up to 1.5 metres. Swell: Easterly 1 metre. Isolated thunderstorms offshore from the morning.

 

Hello Friends,

Maybe it’s just my imagination, but I think I can detect a slight improvement over the last few days. Dee Why seemed to be just a touch bigger this morning. Instead of knee high, the average ones look to be a bit closer to waist high. Okay, I admit that it’s not much of an uptick, and maybe it’s really just my hopeful nature, but the better exposed spots could be picking up something into the chest high range. Quality is strictly agricultural because with an average period of around 7 seconds, it’s really only wind swell.

According to the Bureau, the latest outlook for the Sydney region is very like yesterday, ie NErly wind building up in the afternoon into the 20-30kt range.  That will push a little more energy into the system and by dusk, if you’re not too picky about surface conditions, there should be occasional chest to head high sets at exposed spots (ie where the onshore is strongest).

The cycle’s on rinse and repeat, so tomorrow could be a replay (more or less) of this morning. And right now, the forecast models basically say we’re in for the same again on Saturday. And, looking at the latest run of the WAMs, it appears that the our region of the east coast will continue to miss out on most of the energy coming out of the southern ocean. A persistent and strong series of highs are deflecting everything over to NZ, leaving us with wind swell scraps.

Oh well, what can ya do but enjoy the day for what it is. Stay happy!

Weather Situation

A high over the Tasman extends a ridge to the northern New South Wales coast. This high is expected to remain stationary today and Friday and then move towards New Zealand on Saturday and Sunday.

This will maintain north to northeast winds to most of the coast.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds: North to northeasterly 20 to 25 knots becoming northeasterly 20 to 30 knots during the afternoon. Seas: 1.5 to 2 metres increasing to 2 to 3 metres by early evening. Swell: Northeasterly 1.5 metres.

Forecast for Friday

Winds: North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots becoming northeasterly 20 to 30 knots by early evening. Seas: Up to 3 metres. Swell: Northeasterly 1.5 metres.

Forecast for Saturday

Winds: North to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots. Seas: Up to 3 metres. Swell: Northeasterly 1.5 metres.

Hello Friends

Have to say that I was hoping for something a little more inspiring this morning. But the wind didn’t push too hard last night so, while it’s relatively glassy as the day gets started, the surf is mostly pretty weak and small. The wind swell is plugging along at around the 7 second mark from the NE. But it’s struggling to get much above the 1.5 metre mark out at sea. And that means even a favourably exposed stretch like Northy isn’t showing much above the waist high mark – and that’s on the bigger ones.

Looking at the latest run of the forecast models and the riffs thereon, it appears that we’re in for another week or so of these marginal conditions. We’re about to switch over to a southerly regime that will then prevail for two to three days. Said models are still projecting some very big energy in the southern ocean but it just isn’t looking good for the east coast. Instead our brothers and sisters in southern Australia and Tas are looking like getting some hefty dollops of juice as the system moves by. It’s set to poke up into the Tasman, but the WAMs reckon all the good stuff will be over on the eastern side of the ditch (ie NZ west coasts). Thursday and Friday currently look like being pretty hefty at Shipsterns, but the conditions will probably be less than optimal on the wind front.

Have yourself a top old day one and all!

Weather Situation

A high pressure system near New Zealand extends a ridge to Queensland coast. A trough moving along NSW coast is likely to become slow moving in the north during next few days. During Monday another high will move southwest of Australia gradually extending a ridge to New South Wales south and central coasts while New Zealand high moves to the southeast.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds: Northwesterly 5 to 15 knots tending southerly 15 to 25 knots around midday then tending southeasterly 10 to 20 knots by early evening. Winds tending east to southeasterly up to 15 knots later in the evening. Seas: Up to 2 metres decreasing to below 1 metre around midday. Swell: Northeasterly 1.5 metres.

Forecast for Tuesday

Winds: Southeast to southwesterly 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 20 knots around dawn. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing up to 1.5 metres around dawn. Swell: Northeasterly about 1.5 metres. The chance of thunderstorms from the morning.

Forecast for Wednesday

Winds: Southerly 10 to 15 knots tending south to southeasterly up to 10 knots during the morning then tending east to northeasterly up to 15 knots during the afternoon. Winds tending north to northeasterly 10 to 20 knots during the evening. Seas: Below 1 metre increasing up to 1.5 metres during the evening. Swell: Easterly 1 metre tending southeasterly from midday.

Hello Friends,

My usual leisurely start to Sunday and this morning looks to have been a good one for the early. Swell is around about the same size as yesterday, but there seem to be a great many more participants. Yesterday there were people up and down the Collaroy-Narrabeen stretch, but today the numbers seem to be massing up at the north end where there are a number of weak waist to chest high lumps and bumps dribbling in. You’d want to be very patient out there today.

According to the MHL Sydney buoy, this morning’s waves are mainly coming from the NE at about 7 seconds apart. The average height at sea is around the 1.5-2 metre mark.

Around at Dee Why, the numbers are equally abundant, but spread out more from Longy all the way down to the corner. It’s smaller than Northy, but you could get a few fun ones with your most floaty craft.

Next tide is a high around 1415.

Weather Situation

A slow-moving high pressure system near New Zealand extends a ridge to Queensland coast while a trough is approaching from the west. The trough will appear as a slowly moving southerly change in the far south early on Monday reaching central parts on Tuesday with a possible weak low developing just off the Central Coast.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Winds: Northerly 20 to 30 knots tending north to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots during the morning then increasing to 20 to 30 knots by early evening. Seas: Up to 3 metres decreasing to 2 metres around midday then increasing to 2 to 3 metres by early evening. Swell: Northeasterly 1.5 metres. Isolated thunderstorms inshore this afternoon and evening.

Forecast for Monday

Winds: Northerly 10 to 20 knots, reaching 30 knots at times, tending north to northwesterly up to 15 knots around dawn then tending northwest to southwesterly later in the evening. Seas: Up to 3 metres decreasing to below 1 metre around dawn. Swell: Northeasterly about 1.5 metres. Isolated thunderstorms inshore from the late morning, extending throughout from midday.

Forecast for Tuesday

Winds: South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to southeasterly during the afternoon. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Northeasterly about 1.5 metres. Isolated thunderstorms offshore early in the morning.