Grey skies, no wind, incoming tide, 1.5 metres of 8-sec period wind swell out at sea and that all adds up to an as-expected morning of marginal surf conditions. Magnet spots (mid-Manly, north Curly and the Pole) were picking up knee to waist wave faces on the quite infrequent sets. You’ll want a mal or fish for the conditions as waves were looking slow and weak.
The decrease in energy is right in line with the forecasts, and those tell us that if anything, we can expect it to drop further today, before coming up weakly a touch tomorrow morning, but fading back across the afternoon. We’re expected to have light S-SE wind tomorrow morning along with a mix of east and SE wind swells. I don’t see the latter producing much of interest, but maybe from around midday Wednesday there’ll be a few slightly more interesting waist plus options here and there – tide willing.
Speaking of tides, low tide was at 0730 today and will be high at 1335.
Longer range outlook still holds out hope of something a bit better than today for Friday morning – thanks to a possible longer period NE pulse. The models are currently suggesting any pulse will be shortlived, so maybe there’ll still be some activity on Saturday morning, but thereafter it looks like we’re back to short period metre and thereabouts stuff.
Have yourself a fantastic day!
Long waits for fat and brief waves at 0845
3-4 sec rides possible but rare at 0850
Wait and wait for one of these.
Finally a little barely rideable one arrives
A slow-moving high pressure system near New Zealand extends a ridge toward southeast New South Wales, while a low off the southern Queensland coast is moving northeast. A front passing through southeastern New South Wales will bring a southerly change to the south and central coasts today before stalling and weakening.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Variable about 10 knots becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the late afternoon. Winds reaching up to 25 knots inshore in the evening.
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Northeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening.
Wednesday 25 February
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to southeasterly in the morning then becoming variable about 10 knots in the middle of the day.
Around 1 metre.
Northeasterly 1.5 metres, tending easterly around 1 metre around midday, then increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.
Thursday 26 February
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Below 1 metre.
Easterly to northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
South to southeasterly around 1 metre.
Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers.
Grey skies yet again, but it was glassy along the northern beaches and a small NE windswell was producing the odd waist high set at the exposed spots. The buoy data shows that the average size at sea is around the 1.5 metre mark and the period is at about 8 seconds. The wind wasn’t a factor for the early risers, but it is set to bump up into the 10-15 kt range by this afternoon.
Given the swell direction, there should be at least a little something around the place through the day. As that wind gets going, the clean options will move up toward the north ends. And who knows, maybe the extra energy will make the average sets a bit bigger too.
Tomorrow the wind is going to be around to the north in the morning and then back to the NE later in the day. The swell should stagger along at levels similar to today’s.
In fact, looking at the week ahead, this morning’s run of the forecast models isn’t deviating too significantly from The Goat’s forecast – ie, marginal but not utterly flat.
Have yourself a great Saturday!
TIDES: L @0820, H @1410
A semi-stationary high pressure system near New Zealand extends a ridge to New South Wales far north coast. A cold front is expected to bring southerly change to the south and central coasts on Monday.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds: Southeast to southwesterly 5 to 10 knots tending east to northeasterly up to 10 knots during the afternoon. Winds tending north to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots by early evening. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Northeasterly about 1.5 metres. The chance of thunderstorms in the late afternoon.
Winds: Northeast to northwesterly 5 to 15 knots becoming northwesterly up to 10 knots around midday then tending northeasterly 10 to 20 knots by early evening. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Northeasterly about 1.5 metres.
Forecast for Sunday
Winds: Northerly 10 to 15 knots tending north to northeasterly 10 to 20 knots around dawn. Seas: Up to 1.5 metres. Swell: Easterly 1 metre.
Forecast for Monday
Winds: Northerly 10 to 20 knots decreasing to 15 knots during the morning then tending south to southwesterly up to 25 knots during the afternoon. Winds tending south to southeasterly up to 25 knots during the evening. Seas: Up to 2 metres. Swell: Easterly about 1.5 metres. The chance of thunderstorms from the morning.
Sunday the 5th of September was sunny and offshore with a fun-size NE swell at Curl Curl. Lots of folks were on it and I spent an hour between about 1300 and 1400 getting pictures as many different surfers as I could. As always I was looking for the best moments in rides, not the best riders’ moments! Never assume that I wouldn’t take a picture of you!
Hopped into the cool waters of North Narrabeen this morning and managed to catch one or two waves for my efforts. It wasn’t anything amazing really, but offshores and momentary little sections are still a good thing. I had my attractively brown-blotched shane stingray and it seemed to be the very thing for the soft conditions. Hope you got a few as well!
Late morning section folds into Norffy...
0700: multiperson wave trickles in to Dee Why beach.
10 degrees above average said that man on the radio this morning. Yikes. One of those days when you go to the beach just to get wet and any waves are a bonus. There are tiny little things at Dee Why. For the most part they’re only enough to wet your shins, but with the right equipment, you could at least be messing around in the cool water.
We were still getting a few long period pulses as late as mid-afternoon yesterday, but the MHL Sydney buoy hasn’t detected anything of that nature since. The latest run of data is showing 8 sec period NE windswell in the 1.5 metre range. So, while Dee Why is marginal, other spots with better exposure to the NE should be looking a little more interesting. I reckon waist high sets are a possibility.
Wind is currently light and out of the NW. The Bureau says it’ll build up through the day and could be up to 20-30 kts by this afternoon. That’s not going to do much for the little NE windswell, but with luck it won’t blow it totally flat before you have a chance to get in for a dip.
Maybe looking like this next Tuesday...
With luck the Goat will have time to let us know what he thinks for the weekend. To me it looks as though our next hope for something interesting could be around Tues-Weds, when some of the models are showing a generally southerly pattern getting established. It’s not looking huge or anything, but if it pans out, we could be seeing some head high plus stuff at south spots. Of course all the usual caveats apply.
I’ll try to update again later today. In the meantime, go well with your plans – and stay happy.
Afternoon update: coming back from Manly (cheers Frank!) around lunchtime, I scoped the opportunities. There were very few, but it did look as though the odd one might be coming in toward the middle of Dee Why and up at Northy. Did some other stuff and then finally got in the water at the latter. Moderately crowded of course with the heat and the holidays, but the messy, short period little windswell was peaking all over the place, so it never seemed particularly crowded. Jagged a number of fun ones, but the lulls got longer, so I finally decided to head in. Toweling off in the carpark, and it seemed to start up again. A few in the shoulder high range too. Had my little camera with as usual but only took three pics, two duds and this amazing one of a guy hitting a cutty on the right while someone else goes the punt. Perfect timing if I do say so myself!
Norffy on a little bit of NE windswell and a hot afternoon.
This morning’s notes:
0730, catching a soft one up the beach toward the pole at Dee Why.
We’re set for a top of 33 on the coast today. Wind is NE at 10 kts as I start writing this around 0745. The Bureau says we’re supposed to have NW’lys first up, and then it’s due to swing NE and get into the 20-25 kt range. Overnight the dominant swell direction has gone around to the NE. On average it’s around 1.5 metres (like yesterday) and about 8 seconds apart (also like yesterday). According to the data, there’s also some 15 sec ground swell in the mix. However, after watching Dee Why for 15 minutes, I did not see any sign of it.
What I observed were a reasonable number of folk in the water along the beach and a couple at the point on long boards. But the waits were very long and the sets I saw were struggling to get into the waist high range. Dee Why’s not the optimal place to hunt waves when you’ve got a NE windswell, so I’d be looking elsewhere – assuming maximum size is the objective. On this side of the bridge, the usual suspect line up, ie the semi-protected north corners of Queensie, Curly, Northy, Whaley etc.
It’ll be interesting to see what the Goat has to say about our prospects, but in my humble opinion we’re unlikely to see any real improvement for Sydney surfing interests over the next 4-5 days. If anything, the models are suggesting that it’ll be just about flat on Saturday hereabouts.
But… the models are also showing the possibility of a modest south pulse around Mon-Tues. Again, it looks like being brief, but at least one of the interpretations (wetsand.com) thinks we could see a pretty substantial little burst… one can hope!
Stay cool and go well with your day. (As usual, I’ll try to update again later)
0730: messing around on the little ones just off the rocks.
Amazing! Very surfable looking peaks along the stretch from Marquesas to Flight Deck.
Spent most of the day wrangling computers, then at dusk decided to get out for a walk – only to discover that there were some quite reasonable looking peaks popping up along the beach from about Marquesas down to Flight Deck. Didn’t have my binos with, so couldn’t really see what the situation might have been further north, but I’d presume there would’ve been a few peaks up that way too.
From the look of the MHL trace, the period kicked up briefly to around 8 seconds at about lunchtime. The average size of the NE windswell out at sea has stayed around the 1.5 metre mark all day, but there could be some bigger sets in the mix, because peaks out at sea are getting toward the 3 metre mark.
It looks as though we might have a bit of a replay of the conditions tomorrow. The Bureau is calling for a couple metres of NE swell. So, depending upon what happens with the period, there could again be a few bits and bobs around at NE spots. Wind looks set to be a factor with NW of 15-20 kts in the am, building to 20-30 kts from the W-NW in the afternoon as another front develops.
The week ahead is currently shaping up to be small and marginal, but with at least the hope of a small wave as a pulse develops from the SE toward Weds.
Anyway, hope you’ve had a great weekend and that things are lining up nicely for ya!