Hello Friends,

Do you like southerlies and rain? Well, you got it this morning in Sydney. Wind is pushing along at 15-20 kts right now and is due to pick up into the 20-30 kt range. Tide’s running up to the high at 0900 and Dee Why isn’t the better for it. There was a single person in the water chasing junky lumps in the corner amidst the chop and rafts of seaweed in the impact zone.

Outlook for the rest of the day is not good, and tomorrow and Wednesday look like more of the same but maybe with less rain.

Oh well, looks like a few days to get things done. Maybe later in the week we’ll see some improvement to the settings. This morning’s interpretations of the wave models is pointing toward reasonable prospects for early risers from Thursday through Saturday. We shall see!

Have yourself a top old day.

Weather Situation
A low pressure trough over eastern parts of the state will develop into a low off the Mid North Coast on Monday. The low is expected to move rapidly to the south-southeast during Tuesday and Wednesday as a high pressure system moves south of the Bight extending a ridge to the north coast.
Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
Southerly 10 to 20 knots, reaching 25 knots at times, increasing to 20 to 30 knots during the morning.
Seas
Up to 1.5 metres increasing to 2 metres during the morning then increasing to 2 to 3 metres around midday.
Swell
Easterly about 1.5 metres.
Tuesday 13 December
Winds
South to southwesterly 25 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly 1 metre increasing to 2 metres late in the evening.
Wednesday 14 December
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly 2 metres.

Hello Friends,

A southerly with short period south windswell is producing messy waist high dribble at Dee Why and I can only assume that most other spots along our coast are either similar or possibly worse. Wind’s about 20 kts and there’s a 60% chance of showers through the day, plus the forecast models (and the trend on the buoys off to the south of us) are showing a downward trend. Sadly, it all adds up to a pretty ordinary outlook for surfin’ in Sydney today.

Stay well – and go well – with your Friday one and all!

Tides: H @0715, L @1250

Weather Situation
A complex low pressure system over the central Tasman Sea is moving towards New Zealand and deepening and a high pressure system system south of the Bight is moving slowly east extending a ridge to the southwestern Tasman Sea. By Sunday the high will move southeast of Tasmania extending a ridge to New South Wales north coast and it is expected remain semi-stationary there until Tuesday.
Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
Southerly 20 to 25 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon then decreasing to 10 to 15 knots later in the evening.
Seas
Up to 2 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly about 2 metres.
Weather
Isolated thunderstorms offshore this morning.
Saturday 13 August
Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots tending south to southeasterly up to 10 knots by early evening then tending east to southeasterly later in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly about 2 metres.
Sunday 14 August
Winds
East to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to northeast in the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly about 1.5 metres.

Hello Friends,

Overnight the main (wind) swell direction has gone from NE to dead south. The size at sea has bumped up a touch to an average of 2 metres but the period has weakened slightly to 7 seconds. Tide’s low at 0945 and will come in only a little to make the high at 1530. This morning saw dribbly, weak but not totally uncatchable little lumps coming into Dee Why. As the picture shows, it was possible to ride something tiny near the rocks at the point, but you wouldn’t be raving about the experience afterwards.

According to the Bureau, this morning’s gloom will burn off to a mostly sunny afternoon and the winds will swing SE. We’re headed into a couple days of southeast conditions and it doesn’t look as though we’ll be getting much of anything in the way of waves as a consequence. I’ll be interested to see what the Goat thinks, but my reading of the latest riffs on the forecast data suggests that the anticipated little weekend pulse might peak on Saturday rather than Sunday morning.

Looking out to the limit of the models’ range, there appears to be a chance of something significant brewing up in the Coral Sea. Whether or not the energy gets down as far as the Sydney region is another thing… La Nina still has a way to run obviously.

Go well with your day!

Weather Situation
A cold front is moving across the southern Tasman Sea bringing a weak southerly change to New South Wales south and central coasts. A high pressure system will move towards Tasmania behind the front on Thursday extending a ridge to the north coast. Stronger southerly winds are expected to develop along the coast during Friday as the ridge strengthens. The high should then remain over the southern Tasman Sea over the weekend.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds: Southwesterly 10 to 20 knots tending south to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon. Seas: Up to 1.5 metres. Swell: Northeasterly 1 metre.

Forecast for Friday
Winds: Southerly 15 to 25 knots increasing to 25 to 30 knots during the morning then tending south to southeasterly 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon. Winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 knots later in the evening. Seas: Up to 1.5 metres increasing to 3 metres around dawn. Swell: Easterly 1 metre tending southeasterly 1.5 metres late in the evening.

Forecast for Saturday
Winds: Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to northeasterly up to 10 knots during the afternoon. Seas: 1 to 1.5 metres decreasing to below 1 metre during the afternoon. Swell: Southerly 1.5 metres.

Hello Friends,

Too rainy to take a picture yet this morning, but given the rainy skies and steady SSE wind, I don’t think we’re missing much. Swell is showing as a touch over 2 metres at sea. It’s out of the south but the average period is only about 7 seconds.

The Bureau says the wind will back off later, but not by much. They also reckon the swell’s going to swing to the east too.

Once the rain lifts, I’ll grab a snap for ya. In the meantime, it looks like an excellent morning to have stayed in bed.

Have a good one!

Weather Situation from the Bureau

A southerly change will extend to New South Wales north coast by Sunday afternoon and a weak trough will develop off the north coast tonight or early Monday. Another weak southerly change is expected to develop on the south coast during Tuesday.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Winds: Southerly 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots during the morning. Seas: Up to 3 metres decreasing to 1.5 metres around midday. Swell: Easterly about 1 metre increasing to 1.5 metres this afternoon and evening.

Forecast for Monday

Winds: South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to southeasterly about 10 knots later in the evening. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Southeasterly about 1.5 metres.

Forecast for Tuesday

Winds: Northeast to northwesterly 5 to 10 knots tending north to northeasterly up to 15 knots during the afternoon. Seas: Below 1 metre. Swell: Southerly 1 metre.

Hello Friends,

Sydney’s beaches are in for a pretty ordinary old day from the look of things. The ocean’s choppy and messy but there is a bit more of a line than yesterday and as a consequence a few bods are in the water chasing waist high lumps of junkiness. With low tide at around 0830 and a high around 1520, the optimal time for a lot of spots should be late morning. Unfortunately, the already dodgy wind situation is only going to get dodgier as the wind picks up a bit more and works around through the easterly quarters from the present SE to the NE. Sounds like a recipe for messiness all day long, but with a slight hope that semi-protected NE corners might possibly be worth consideration late in the day.

As for the long range outlook, I like the look of the Goat’s latest prognostications. The current run of the models is pretty supportive of his estimates too. I’ll have a look at the prospects tomorrow morning ahead of my usual 0730 702 ABC gig.

Have yourself a top old day!

The Bureau’s Friday morning Sydney forecast

Weather Situation

A high near Tasmania will move to the Tasman Sea today allowing winds to gradually tend to the east to northeast. A low pressure system is expected to deepen over South Australia today. The low should deepen further on Saturday and move southeast towards Tasmania with winds along the NSW coast becoming strong to gale force. The low will then move quickly into the southern Tasman Sea on Sunday allowing winds to gradually ease.
Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds: South to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots tending easterly during the day then east to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots by early evening. Seas: 1 to 1.5 metres increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres later in the evening. Swell: Southerly 0.5 to 1.5 metres.
Forecast for Saturday

Winds: North to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots. Seas: 2 to 3 metres. Swell: Southerly about 2 metres decreasing to 1 metre late in the evening.
Forecast for Sunday

Winds: Northwesterly 20 to 30 knots tending west to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots during the morning then tending westerly up to 15 knots during the afternoon. Winds tending west to southwesterly up to 20 knots during the evening. Seas: Up to 3 metres decreasing below 2 metres during the morning. Swell: Easterly 2 metres tending southeasterly during the evening.

Hello Friends,

Not the most appetizing morning as things got underway in Sydney today. Showers and cold temps greeted the hardy souls suiting up in beachside carparks along our beaches. But there was a reason to get in at the stretches with decent exposure to the SSE swell. It’s only a couple metres at sea with a period of around 7 seconds, but at places like Northy and No Mans, there are some sets into the chest high range. Away from those zones though it’s quite a bit smaller, so this will be a day to look around for the optimal combo of tide and waves.

The big issue is the wind. Early on there wasn’t much but the forecast is calling for it to pick up and blow freshly from the south east. Go early or…

Outlook for tomorrow is maybe a patch on today, but the bureau is saying they expect the swell to fade away (as do the models)

Speaking of the models, the latest run suggests that it’s going to be marginal to small Mon-Tues at spots exposed to the swell (such as it is), but possibly we may see a pulse into the interesting range (shoulder high plus) on Wednesday. That said, the models have been pretty variable over the last few days, so the situation must be pretty fluxy (ie, typical weather for this time of year), so the Wednesday call could evaporate – or improve! Only Huey knows…

Go well with your day!

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Saturday until midnight: Wind: South to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots reaching to 20 to 25 knots during the morning.Sea: 1.5 to 2.5 metres. Swell: East to southeasterly 1.0 to 1.5 metres.
Sunday: Wind: South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots decreasing to east to southeasterly 5 to 10 knots during the afternoon /evening.Sea: 1 to 2 metres Swell: South to southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, abating to below about 1 metre.
Monday: Wind: Light and variable winds tending northeasterly up to 10 knots during the afternoon then tending north to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the evening.

Hello Friends,

Moderate offshore breezes kicked off the first of April in Sydney. Huey turned on the wave tap by just a bit yesterday arvo and this morning saw the odd chest to shoulder high set in the mix at south swell spots.

Wind is due to swing around to the south and SW as the tide fills in, so you’d have to think the earlier the better.

Swell is averaging a couple metres at sea but it has a 7 second average period, so there’s not much power. The outlook over the next few days is for more or less much of the same. With luck we’ll have the Goat’s thoughts later on today, but for now, looking at the various prediction riffs on the WAM data suggests that the little low forming off the east coast probably won’t sling much swell at us. But at least the prospects aren’t for flatness. And if we’re lucky there could be a bump late in the weekend as some east energy arrives.

Have yourself a great April Fool’s day!

TIDES: H @1050, L @1640

Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Strong Wind Warning.
Thursday until midnight: Wind: S/SW 20/30 knots Sea: 2 to 3 metres.Swell: S/SE 1.5 to 2 metres.
Friday: Wind: S/SW 20/30 knots, easing later in the day to 15/25 knots.Sea: 2 to 3 metres. Swell: S/SE about 2 metres.
Saturday: Wind: S/SE 15/25 knots.

Hello Friends,

Been tuning in from time to time to the live feed of the Pro Junior up at Northy. Conditions are pretty ordinary looking there, but the odd shoulder high set seems to be turning up now that the tide’s dropped.

Wind is more out of the SSW, so Dee Why’s not as affected and it’s getting similar size swell. Not fabulous conditions it has to be said, but it’s the first time in weeks I’ve seen anyone even trying to catch a wave at the point.

Outlook is for this stuff to fade overnight and be pretty small tomorrow before another similar size pulse arrives for Saturday.

Hello Friends,

Grey and drizzly along the coast this morning following the arrival of a south change overnight. Wind’s not blowing too hard, but it is out of the SSE to SE at 10-15kts, so surface conditions aren’t great.

The MHL Sydney buoy is showing an increase over the near flatness of yesterday, but although it’s out of the south at a couple metres, the period is only 7 seconds. There is a little hope for improvement though because down at Eden the average period is closer to the 10 second mark. What we can’t tell is if we’ll see the same thing up here. If we do, I reckon the forerunners should start showing mid to late afternoon. However, for now, it’s looking really small and weak.

Not a great set of prospects for the week ahead. In fact, it looks pretty much like we’re going to have a repeat of the last few weeks strictly sub-par junk. I think the best we can hope for is something just into the surfable range at south swell spots this afternoon which then lasts through to tomorrow morning before it gets swallowed up by the huge high tide. By Tuesday morning it looks as though we’ll be back to minor to flat conditions most places in Sydney.

Tides: H @1053, L @1735
Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards:
Sunday until midnight: Wind: S 20/25 knots easing to S/SE 15/20 during the morningSea: 2 to 3 metres, abating to 1 to 1.5 metres.Swell: S increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres.
Monday: Wind: SE 8/13 knots turning NE 10/15 knots in the afternoon.Sea: about 1 metre. Swell: S about 1.5 metres decreasing to S/SE about 2 metres..
Tuesday: Wind: N/NE 10/20 knots increasing to 15/25 knots.

Hello Friends,

Climbed up to the crows nest for one last look at the situation. The skies are darkening up, the wind is blowing pretty hard and there are occasional drops of rain. The ocean is grey and choppy inshore. Out at sea, the whitehorses are very close together across the broad and darkening plain.

Should one get up for the early, that is the question.

Let’s start with a look at the current state of play with the data from our friends at MHL.

The Sydney buoy was showing a couple metres of 7 second period south wind swell. Although this is up from a metre at 6 sec this morning, the consequence at a place like Dee Why is still only knee to waist high dribble. Wind is around the the 20 kt mark from the SSW.

Way down south, the Eden buoy trace shows that the swell went from around a metre at 7 seconds to 5 metres at 10 seconds as of about 1800.

Given the period (longer = faster), I’d guess that we will wake up to a lot more activity tomorrow morning. Whether it will get into the 5 metre range is another question, but I think it’s pretty safe to say it’ll be big.

The wildcard in the pack is going to be the wind. The latest from the Bureau is that we will have S-SW wind at 25-33 kts (ie, considerably stronger than what we’re getting now) and it calculates the swell will be in the 3-4 metre range.

Given the foregoing, my guess is that it will be a grey day with only a few surf options in the most protected corners. I would expect the surface conditions to be pretty messy even in those places. The open stretches will be Victory at Sea conditions.

The swell should drop at roughly the speed it came up and while it could still be pretty big on Weds, the wind is set to have more SE component. That means no real respite from the junky conditions. By all indicators we’re looking at big but not terribly clean waves Tue-Wed, then smaller with more easterly winds on Thursday.

We shall see!

If you’ve read this far, may I respectfully ask you to consider making a contribution to our 2009 RealSurf fundraiser? Even a tiny amount will be much appreciated.

cheers,
Don

Not exactly pumping as we run out of light on Monday.