Interesting numbers coming from the MHL buoy at 0500. The spectral data shows most of the swell coming from the SE with set wave heights at 3.3 metres and a typical period of 10 seconds, but there’s also some small, longer period component coming from the NE. That may account for the slightly peakier situation along the beach. Despite the impressive numbers, I didn’t see any sets with wave faces above about the shoulder high mark when I watched for the first time this morning. Wind was light westerly for the early sesh, but the Bureau tells us it’ll be southerly 15-20 kt before weakening and swing to the SE late. Swell is expected to fade into the two metre range this afternoon. Sorta chilly under grey skies and there’s the possibility of a morning shower. Tide’s low at 1225. Outlook for tomorrow is smaller again south swell early and fading away to very little as the day goes along. Wind should be light in the early morning and from the east to south-east. So, this morning could be just about it. The Goat should be along soon with his thoughts, but for what it’s worth, it looks like not much for the week ahead. Have yourself a healthy and happy Thursday everybody!
As of 0600 swell was SE at 10.5 seconds apart with an average height at sea of 3.1 metres. My Saturday morning pre-702 ABC surf report run-around revealed that there were few opportunities on the Collaroy-Narrabeen stretch as we approached the high tide at 0735. The odd bodyboard cruncher at south Narrabeen maybe… Around at Dee Why to Longy, there was plenty of activity, but as the pictures show, once again the beach break at Dee Why was lined up and thumping but rarely makeable. The point was weirdly uncrowded as the day got started. I saw a couple of shoulder plus wave faces, so not sure what the story is there. Swell was getting into Longy in a big way, but again it was the usual pinball machine of surf possibilities on the inside. So, waves, definitely, quality… hmmm… On the good side, the wind should be okay all day. It’ll be W-SW early then dropping back mid-day and coming back SW in the afternoon.
According to the Bureau’s swell modelling, we should see the energy levels fade back through the day but then pulse back up again tomorrow. And Monday looks pretty promising as well at this stage. Wind’ll be SW across the next 48 hours too. With luck there should be wave energy right through to Wednesday am. So whoohoo for that!
Have yourself a great Saturday and keep on smilin’!
Swell has dropped a fair amount from yesterday’s peak intensity, but it’s not exactly tiny. If you’re a beginner or even a tentative intermediate, sit and watch for half an hour before committing. The direction (SE) and average period (10sec) haven’t changed much, but average height at sea is closer to 2-3 m than yesterday’s 3-5 m. The Bureau still has a caution for large and powerful surf conditions though.
The Narrabeen stretch was just one long line shutting down, so with that off the table, crowd pressure will be up elsewhere. Dee Why point had a healthy population at first light and there were even a few hardy types looking for something catchable in the beach break. Set wave faces were in the chest to a touch overhead range, but it would surprise me if there weren’t still the odd double-overhead bomb in the mix this morning.
Wind was light offshore for the early risers. It’s going to be SW again, but not as strong as yesterday, so again, that should be a good thing for many spots.
Tide was high at 0645 and will be back to low at 1330.
Swell should continue its gradual fade over the next 24 hours, but it’s not looking like droppimg back into the tiny range for awhile yet. The real problem is that were due to go back into another extended period of southerly wind conditions. It’s set to swing south this afternoon and then stay that way through to the middle of the week at least. Tomorrow morning could be okay though because it should be only light for the early session. Mind you, that high tide will introduce its own complications.
I’m planning to get out and about with the camera, so if you see me, wave hello! Have a great day and know your limits.
Collaroy-Narrabeen not happening
DY beachy looks like good exercise at 0645
The odd bomb still in the mix
Weather Situation A low centred to the east of Bass Strait is the dominant weather system in the region, directing a generally southerly airstream along the New South Wales coast. This low will remain slow-moving today as a high passes to its south, maintaining large swells and vigorous winds, especially in southern waters. Later tonight and on Sunday the low is expected to weaken and move away to the east, with a new high south of the Bight building a ridge along the New South Wales coast. Forecast for Saturday until midnight Winds Southwesterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots offshore in the morning. Winds turning southerly in the early afternoon. Seas 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning. Swell Southerly 2 to 3 metres. Weather Mostly sunny. 20% chance of a shower. Caution Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing. Sunday 1 February Winds Southerly about 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day. Seas Below 1 metre. Swell Southerly 2 to 2.5 metres. Weather Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers. Monday 2 February Winds Southerly 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 1.5 metres. Swell Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres. Weather Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.
Hello Friends, Dropping tide in Sydney, 3 metres of SSE swell at close to 10-seconds as of 0600, WSW wind (going SE later), low tide around 1050 and sunny skies means the morning session is on at lots of places this morning. Exposed spots should see overhead wave faces and even the smaller places should be at the upper end of the chest to shoulder range. You lucky pups!
Meanwhile in SoCal we had a little front come through and drop 25mm of very welcome rain (they’re experiencing exceptional drought conditions) overnight, but this morning sees a post-frontal NW wind of 15-25 kts tearing the microscopic wind swell to bits. Saw a surf school trying to catch knee high dribble right inside at Rincon (where it’s somewhat protected) but everywhere else was hopeless junk. So jealous of Sydney right now.
Bureau says Sydney’ll be onshore all day tomorrow, although the swell will come up too. NE + south swell spots look the best shot.
Speaking of shots, here’s a postcard for you
The view north along the coast from Ventura Overhead.
Have a great day!
A cold front is moving east across the Tasman Sea and a high pressure system south of the Bight extends a ridge in its wake. As the ridge strengthen over the western Tasman Sea, southerly winds along New South Wales coast will ease during Sunday. By Monday the high is expected to be over the Tasman Sea, bringing a return to northerly winds. The next southerly change is expected to develop during Wednesday.
Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Southwesterly 15 to 25 knots turning southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon.
1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Monday 3 November
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning east to northeasterly in the afternoon. Winds reaching up to 20 knots inshore in the evening.
Around 1 metre, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning, then increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Southerly 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
Cloudy. 20% chance of a shower.
Tuesday 4 November
Northeasterly 15 to 25 knots increasing to 20 to 30 knots during the evening.
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Grey skies and light wind inshore greeted early risers. As predicted, the swell ramped up overnight and for the last 12 hours or so it has been around the 3 metre mark at sea with an average period of 10 seconds. At Dee Why this means wave faces on the biggest sets that are in the 2.5-3 metre range. However, it seemed as though there was a bit of a wait between those sets when I watched and at those times you’re looking more at chest plusses. It’s a raw and pretty sectiony swell too.
The southerly is expected to stick around all day but to fade in the afternoon. So, it’ll probably be pretty lumpy and raw. Tide swings are small, but for the record the low is at around 0800 and the high will be at 1400.
Swell is set to peak this morning but to not fade much across the day. Weather should be partly cloudy.
Tomorrow morning still looks about the most promising of the week with models predicting around two metres at 10 seconds from the SE – with light offshores and sunniness to start.
Thursday morning might still have a little wave activity worthy of the name too, but the wind’s set to come back south again.
I’ve got a new waterproof camera to experiment with, so I’ll be making the effort to get in the water to see how it goes. Wave hi if you see me!
Have yourself a great Tuesday and keep on smilin’!
Weather Situation A high pressure centre to the south of Tasmania extends a ridge northwards into New South Wales, while a trough over the Tasman Sea moves away to the east. This pattern will result in fresh to strong southerly winds in the north, easing Tuesday evening. As the high moves east during the second half of the week, winds will shift northerly and increase while another trough approaches from the west. This next system will bring a southerly change to the coast at the end of the week. Forecast for Tuesday until midnight Winds Southerly 20 to 25 knots, decreasing to 15 to 20 knots in the evening. Seas 1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing below 1.5 metres during the afternoon. Swell Southerly 3 to 4 metres, decreasing to 2.5 to 3 metres around dawn. Caution Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing. Wednesday 27 November Winds South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning east to northeasterly in the afternoon. Seas Below 1 metre. Swell Southeasterly 2 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the afternoon. Thursday 28 November Winds North to northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots during the morning then increasing to 20 to 30 knots during the afternoon. Seas Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning. Swell Southeasterly 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre.
Showers again on the cards this morning, but worse, the wind is going to be SE at 25-30 knots. There won’t be many options around but if you can find somewhere well protected the fact that there’s also 3 metres of 10 sec SE swell at least gives one hope.
It looks as though there might a more favourable wind regime tomorrow as it swings more to the SW. The water will be pretty ordinary thanks to the run-off though. (After weeks of not much rain, I daresay there’s a fair amount of dreck coming out of the stormwater drains on our beaches)
Tide was high at around 0710 and will be back to low shortly after 1300.
Go well with your Friday everyone!
UPDATE: Had a look at Brownwater, Whiterock and The Kick around 0830. Unfortunately, despite the wind not being too bad there, the swell is just too scrappy and raw to wrap in properly. There were occasional moments when a wave face looked sort of do-able, but they never lasted. No one out either. Here are a couple pics for you though…
Weather Situation A low pressure trough near the New South Wales coast is directing a strong to gale force east to southeasterly airstream over the New South Wales coast. Wind will increase further in the north during Friday as a low pressure centre deepens in the trough. A high pressure ridge is then expected to develop across New South Wales on Saturday. Forecast for Friday until midnight Strong wind warning for Friday for Sydney Coastal Waters Winds Southeasterly 25 to 30 knots. Seas 2 to 2.5 metres increasing to 2.5 to 3 metres offshore. Swell Southeasterly 2 to 2.5 metres. Weather Isolated thunderstorms offshore this morning.
Saturday 25 May Winds Southerly 25 to 30 knots turning southwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the day. Seas 2 to 3 metres, decreasing below 2 metres around midday, then decreasing below 1.5 metres by early evening. Swell Southeasterly 1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Sunday 26 May Winds West to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots decreasing to about 10 knots during the morning then tending southerly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon. Seas below 1 metre increasing to up to 1 metre offshore.Swell Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
The keen were on it for the early at Dee Why while the wind was still favourable. Swell seemed to be a bit smaller than last night, although the power settings look pretty similar. Mind you, a rain squall cut short my observation, so maybe there were some bigger sets.
It’s due to swing SE soon and push up into the 30-40 kt range as it does. That, combined with the cold temps and showers will no doubt take its toll on the surf options. As the wind kicks in, the swell is expected to ramp up, so if you’re determined to get wet this morning there should be something in the most protected corners.
Go well with your day!
TIDES: H @1040, L @1600 Sydney Coastal Waters, Broken Bay to Port Hacking and 60nm seawards: Gale Warning. Monday until midnight: Wind: West to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots, turning south to southeasterly and increasing to 30 to 40 knots during the morning. Winds easing to 20 to 30 knots later in the day or evening.Sea: 1 to 2 metres, rising to 3 to 4 metres during the morning. Swell: Southeast 3 to 4 metres, breaking dangerously close inshore. Chance thunderstorms. Tuesday: Wind: Southerly 15 to 25 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon then decreasing below 10 knots during the evening.Sea: 1.5 to 2.5 metres, abating to about 1 metre in the afternoon.Swell: Southeasterly 2 to 3 metres. Wednesday: Wind: South to southwesterly 5 to 10 knots tending southeasterly during the evening.
Sunday the 30th of May should make the top ten best days of this year. After shooting for a couple hours at Manly, I wandered north to see how the swell was doing at spots like Mona Vale and Northy. Here’s a selection of shots from the latter…
Waiting to rock off the pool at Collaroy this morning.
Plenty of swell, but it was just so raw that nowhere really stood out as offering terribly exceptional conditions. Between the strong wind and early high tide, you really had to be lucky. I just had another look and the ocean is pretty torn up looking. Wind’s fresh and from the south at most places, but despite having a SE tilt, the swell’s 10 sec period isn’t quite enough to pull into the protected corners with any significant size. It’s a different story on the exposed stretches of course, there are still some solidly overhead faces to be had – if you dig onshore conditions.
The swell has peaked and is now declining slowly. While the wind looks like continuing in much the same vein for the rest of the day, the Bureau’s latest call is for light and variable going around to a NE seabreeze tomorrow. So I’m hoping that conditions will tidy up a little and that high tide spots will have something amusing for the dawn patrol. If it’s chest to head high on the sets, I’ll be a happy camper.
Finally, a big thank you to each of the following good folk who’ve bought RealSurf a coffee – or better! Kevin M., Rob H., Ben G., Adrian C., David S. Like what we do? Why not buy us a coffee too!
Hello again friends, Just back from a tour of the beaches south from south Narrabeen.
Here’s the executive summary:
South Narra: big, messy, no one out Collaroy: small, not as messy, only one or two chasing waist high things Dee Why: didn’t see anyone in the water, but didn’t watch for very long either. Big and messy in the beachy, swell angle wrong for the point. Queenscliff to North Steyne: big, messy, no one out, ferggedit South Steyne: a bit cleaner and some catchable ones into the head high range, but I’d rate it 5/10 – ie, average. Bower: shoulder to head high plus, but pretty messy looking when I checked it between 0900-1000. Lotta people in the water, fairly inconsistent, but definitely some fun ones
Not the cleanest conditions, but don't think he'd be complaining (the Bower around 0900)
Bowls to be found amongst the general choppiness at Fairy Bower.
Around 0900, not terribly clean, but you could catch em if you were keen.