An intense couple of days for your correspondent, so it was good to get a look at the beach. There wasn’t much to see though. Autumn here isn’t a patch on autumn on the east coast of Oz. They still get summery fog and junky seabreezes with only very occasional pulses of tiny, long period swells. The pictures below come from a couple of surf spots on the coast just north from Ventura. It was mainly grey and foggy along the beaches (although it’s clear inland) with air temps around the 18 mark (inland will be in the mid 30s – which is typical). As you can see there was barely any swell energy around. The biggest set I saw might have been waist high on the take off, but mainly it was sub-knee to knee and very weak. I haven’t been in the water, but I’d guess it was 16-18.
My friend was at an alarmingly low ebb just before I got here, but she’s improved a tiny bit each day since. So, at least the trend is headed the right direction.
From the MHL data, it looks as though there should be a little something at south spots because that’s where the energy is coming. It’s about 2 metres out at sea and 7-8 seconds apart. Not much of a tide swing today from the low at 0735 to the high at 1355.
Wind at 0730 was NW and light, but it should gradually drift around to be onshore from NE around lunch.
The Bureau has a warning up about deceptively powerful swells, and the 0400 Pt Kembla spectral data is showing close to 3 metres of SE swell with a healthy 13 second period. That should translate to thumping sets, but from what I can tell, it’s not really showing yet in Sydney.
From the Bureau’s modelling, it looks as though the swell fills in later this afternoon (sheltered corners) and then sticks around with a possible little bump up mid-morning tomorrow, before slumping back into the marginal zone.
Here’s the Bureau bumpf, and postcards are below that…
Forecast issued at 4:11 am EDT on Sunday 27 October 2013.
A ridge of high pressure extending across the NSW coast will remain the dominant feature today, promoting light to moderate winds. This high will shift to the Tasman Sea by Monday, with generally northerly winds developing ahead of the next cold front and southerly change, currently expected to affect most areas during Tuesday.
Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Variable about 10 knots becoming east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon and evening.
Below 1 metre.
Southerly 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres around dawn.
Deceptively powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Monday 28 October
Northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around dawn.
The chance of thunderstorms.