Rain and NE wind at first light but swell not here yet

Posted by: on June 4th, 2016

Hello Friends,

At first light the  wind was NNE at 10-15 kts, swell was out of the east at 1.5 metres but with only a choppy 6 second period. The weather radar was showing rain from Coffs to Merimbula.

I went for my usual Saturday morning check out, but ended up only bothering with the view from Edgecliff Blvd as it was almost too dark for the camera. I got a couple of shots before the rain intensified again and the visibility dropped to a few hundred metres. As you can see, not much was happening at south Narrabeen which should be picking up any east to NE.

Outlook is for the wind to be 25-30 kts NE later and given that swell was close to 3 metres at 7 seconds up at Byron, there’s no reason to think the Bureau’s call for 3-5 metres won’t happen later.

Today’s first high tide was at 0720 and it will be back to low at 1315. We’ve had 12 to 55 mm of rain in the last 24 hours, so I’d guess water quality will be suffering.

Outlook remains pretty much as it was yesterday, namely that we can expect seriously big swell and lots of east to NE wind over the next 48 hours. Swell is predicted to peak overnight in the 4-6 metre range, then come back a touch before hitting a second peak overnight Sunday and into Monday morning. The Bureau’s call is for 5-7 metres!!

Obviously surf conditions will be pretty much no go for most of us across the period in question. The models show the wind going west from Monday, so we could see some surf options for the foolhardy and fit. It looks like staying that direction all week and we should have dropping into the approachable range from Tuesday onward.

Although there’s a good sand build up along the northern stretch of Collaroy Narrabeen, you have to think that there’s a very strong chance for some serious beach recession over the next few days thanks to the dire combo of huge mainly east swell and powering onshores to drive the surge at high tide.

Have a great day and stay dry!

south narrabeen beach

Marquesas shories looking uninviting at 0700

south narrabeen

The rain starting to tumble down again as I took this shot at 0700

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Weather Situation
A deepening low pressure trough over the northern inland of NSW is forecast to move eastwards across inland areas today to be located near the New South Wales coast tonight. An East Coast Low is forecast to develop within this low pressure trough off the southern Queensland or northern New South Wales coast tonight or early on Sunday. The East Coast Low is then expected to move southwards during Sunday and Monday.
Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Gale Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northeasterly 25 to 30 knots, reaching up to 35 knots during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
2.5 to 3 metres, increasing to 3 to 4 metres around midday.
Swell
Northeasterly 2 to 2.5 metres, increasing to 3 to 5 metres around midday.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Sunday 5 June
Gale Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
Winds
East to northeasterly 25 to 30 knots, reaching up to 45 knots during the morning. Winds turning north to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
4 to 5 metres, decreasing to 2 to 2.5 metres around midday, then decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Northeasterly 4 to 6 metres, tending easterly 3 to 5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of rain. Rain heavy at times in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Monday 6 June
Winds
Northerly 10 to 15 knots turning westerly 20 to 30 knots during the morning then tending northwesterly 25 to 30 knots during the evening.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Swell
Easterly 5 to 7 metres, decreasing to 5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

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