Archive for December 2017

2017 going out with a whimper

Posted on December 31st, 2017 in Dee Why.

Last day of the year and it’s dribble

The point ant kiddies at 0830 Sunday

Hello Friends,

Not the prettiest final morning for 2017 along the beaches. Dull grey skies and 10 kts of ESE wind combined with 8-sec two metre SSE wind swell and a 1.8 m high tide at 0720 to produce, well, not much. It’s definitely a bit bigger than yesterday (which isn’t saying much since it was nearly flat) but when I took the pictures around 0830 it was lumpy, bumpy, fat and slow looking. There wasn’t enough oomph for the point and up the beach toward No Mans it looked to be around the waist high mark on the bigger ones. But then we shouldn’t be surprised, last Thursday The Goat told us it’d be like this. And given the models this morning, looks like he’s right about the rest of the week. Could be pretty sad with only tiny, weak, short period dribble through to the weekend. I’m hoping the one outlier calling for a little bump Thursday morning has it right…

Have a great NYE and stay safe!

 

 

Weather Situation

East to southeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast will turn north to northeasterly during Sunday, ahead of a southerly change expected to develop during Monday night and Tuesday.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds turning northeasterly in the late afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning, then decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Cloudy.

Monday 1 January

Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning east to southeasterly below 10 knots in the late evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and early afternoon.

Tuesday 2 January

Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots becoming southeasterly about 10 knots during the afternoon then becoming south to southwesterly during the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Curly and Dee Why late morning

Posted on December 30th, 2017 in Surf Reports.

Busy everywhere but skies clearing and wind still hasn’t come up as of 1145. Mostly knee high but every now and then a waist high bomb focuses on a lucky dip bank.


Glassy and small early

Posted on December 30th, 2017 in At large.

Right equipment for a soft little peak at the Pole

South Narrabeen shorey wave of the day 0625

Fat slow rollers trickle into Northy 0625

Weak little lines at Kiddies 0630

Hello Friends,

It was raining lightly and the ocean was glassy when I checked the situation at 0630. There were little waves, but they looked weak, fat and slow – which figures given the 1.7 m high tide and the 7-8 sec 1.6 m north wind swell. Size looked to be in the knee to waist range, but rides fizzled out pretty quickly after the take off. On the plus side, nowhere was terribly crowded.

The wind should pick up soon according to the Bureau. It’s due to be 15-20 kts from the N-NW before slacking off around lunchtime ahead of a 15-20 kt SE change.

Outlook for tomorrow is for southerly conditions early with a small bump in swell size from the south, but the period will be short, so I’m not expecting anything too exciting. Wind is due to go NE by lunch time.

I’m not overly hopeful about the long range outlook. The swell models are not swell this morning. If they’re right, we’re staring down another week of ultra tiny weak to flat conditions.

Water’s nice though. 22°C according to Beachwatch. So, at least it’s nice for a swim.

Have a top old Saturday everyone!

Weather Situation

A high pressure system near New Zealand with a ridge to the northwest is directing north to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. A a cold front/trough will bring south to southeasterly change along the south coast on Saturday morning, extending to the central coast in the evening and to the far north coast overnight. Winds will turn back to the north northeast during Sunday, ahead of a another southerly change expected on the south coast on Monday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore during the morning. Winds becoming variable about 10 knots in the middle of the day then becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre around midday.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing to around 1 metre around midday.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm during the morning and afternoon.

Sunday 31 December

Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds turning east to northeasterly in the middle of the day.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy.

Monday 1 January

Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots shifting south to southwesterly during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.

A touch more activity – maybe

Posted on December 29th, 2017 in Dee Why.

More people in the water this morning

Faint hint of a line at No Mans

Hello Friends,

Energy levels seem to be ever so slightly up on this time yesterday. At 0500 the MHL buoy was picking up 1.3 m of 7-sec east wind bump and there were a few more folks in the water both along the beach and at the point. Waves look to be in the ankle to knee range with the occasional waist high bomb set.

Tide was high at 0530 and is currently running out to the low at 1155. We’ll be back to a 1.4 m high at 1750.

Wind was light from the north when I tapped out the report around 0830, but it will start building soon to a standard issue 10-15 kts with peaks to 20 kts. Temp’s due to hit 29 along the coast and water is 22°C.

Outlook for early next year? The Goat’s your man on that front.

Have a great Friday everyone!

 

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge towards the New South Wales coast, directing east to northeasterly winds over most waters. This high will gradually weaken over the next day or two, allowing a trough and cold front to bring a southerly change during the weekend. This change is likely to be short-lived, as winds turn north to northeasterly again late Sunday or Monday, ahead of a second southerly change expected along the south coast on Monday.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots during the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Saturday 30 December

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots shifting southerly 15 to 25 knots in the late afternoon or evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.

Sunday 31 December

Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots shifting east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the evening.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

The Goat’s New Year Forecast

Posted on December 28th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 28 December 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Christmas drinks, Christmas dinner, Christmas Day, Boxing Day drinks and dinner, grandkids’ birthday parties, surfing, cricket, the Sydney Hobart, and now New Years Eve coming up… a veritable cornucopia of Summer Fun!  Hope you’re all keeping up OK.

The surf’s been mostly small, but there have been waves enjoyed by many, perhaps too many at times! at some places where the banks aren’t too bad, at the right tides. And the weather has been perfect(ly hot) on some days, to spend time in the warmish water.

It looks like more of the same into the first part of 2018… which ain’t all that bad ’cause you’ve got enough going on without over-exerting yourself in the surf.

A couple of gratis, gratuitous messages:

Watch out for extreme UV levels even on cloudy days at the beach… we don’t want the kids or you getting too much of it.

And

Watch out for people doing breaststroke going backwards in a rip, even on small days. There are lots of visitors around who haven’t any experience with the surf or rips, so you might like to share some of your knowledge with them, and you might even get a buzz out of helping them out of trouble.

Friday: in the 1-2 metre range North East windswell

Saturday: around 1 metre or so North East

Sunday: up a little at places facing dead South, say in the 1-2 metre range but onshore, so you can rest up for New year’s Eve

Monday: about 1 metre or so South East, so you can rest up after New Years Eve

Tuesday: about 1 metre or less dead South places

Wednesday: ditto

Thursday: ditto again

Have Fun! Stay safe on the roads and in the surf.

Happy New Year!

TG

 

Up in the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Dec 28 06:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Dec 28 07:30:00 2017

Wind

https://www.windyty.com/

Down in the Sea

Water temp is a pleasant 23, so you can comfortably stay in for hours, whether you want to or not waiting for a wave. Plenty of wind variations ahead so it shouldn’t get colder.

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds east to northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Friday 29 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 29
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower from the afternoon, most likely in the evening. Winds northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the morning then becoming northeast to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the early afternoon.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 14 [Extreme]

 

Saturday 30 December

Summary
Min 22
Max 30
Rain easing. Possible storm.
Possible rainfall: 10 to 20 mm
Chance of any rain: 95% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of rain in the morning. Medium (40%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon and early evening. Light winds becoming west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h in the morning then tending southeast to southwesterly 25 to 40 km/h in the afternoon or evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 14 [Extreme]

Sunday 31 December

Summary
Min 20
Max 24
Shower or two clearing.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Mostly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers in the morning, clearing during the afternoon or evening. Winds south to southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h shifting east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Monday 1 January

Summary
Min 20
Max 29
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon.

Tuesday 2 January

Summary
Min 21
Max 25
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning southeasterly during the morning.

Wednesday 3 January

Summary
Min 20
Max 25
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. Light winds.

Thursday 4 January

Summary
Min 20
Max 26
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


Another micro morning

Posted on December 28th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Another morning for a swim

No waves at No Mans

Hello Friends,

Very similar to yesterday, except that it will be warmer. Wind is out of the NNE and although it’s 5-6 kts as I write this around 0830, by this afternoon it should be a regulation summery 15-20 kts from the NE. The MHL buoy report from 0600 showed 1 metre of 7-sec ESE wind bump and that was perfectly consistent with the ankle to knee high dribble. You’ll be doing really well if you find anything above waist high I’d say. Tide is dropping to the low at 1005 and will be back to a 1.4 m high at 1645. The Bureau says our high today will be 29. Beachwatch says the water temp is now up to a balmy 23°C. I wonder if that NE’r will haul up some cooler sub-surface water though…

The Goat should be along with his thoughts on the week ahead later this afternoon. From what I’m seeing, the models are not projecting much of anything in a way of a change to our metre or so of 6-8 sec dribble out of the easterly quarters. Oh well, the summer flatness will eventually be punctuated by a south pulse…

Have a great Thursday!

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge towards the New South Wales coast, directing east to northeasterly winds over most waters. This high will gradually weaken over the next day or two, allowing a trough and cold front to bring a southerly change during the weekend. This change is likely to be short-lived, with a weak high pressure system drifting across in its wake, accompanied by a return to generally northerly winds by Sunday night.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Friday 29 December

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Saturday 30 December

Winds
Northerly 20 to 30 knots shifting southerly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the day.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Please be awareWind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.


How keen are you?

Posted on December 27th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

7-10 kts of ENE wind as of 0730 and 1.3 m of 7-sec east bump trying to turn into waves along the Dee Why stretch. There was actually a person in the water at the point catching waves too. Mind you, it looked to be about ankle to knee high. I reckon that’d be pretty much the same up and down the beaches I’d say. When the waves are this close together, they’re really gutless 90% of the time but every now and then a couple of them will come together and on just the right bank at just the right time, you’ll get a brief chest high wave face. The east direction should mean that there are bumps pretty much everywhere so it’s just a matter of looking for where it’s focusing at particular tides. Speaking of which, low is at 0930 and then it’ll come into a 1.4 m high at 1535.
We’re headed to a high of 26 and the wind should stay about where it is now. Swell is set to hang around at the current settings – more or less – through tomorrow. Yesterday the Bureau’s modelling showed the possibility of a little bump to energy levels, but this morning it seems less excited about the prospects. The latest batch of long range models are all saying we can expect sub-10 sec energy levels for another week at least on the east coast.
Have a great Wednesday everyone!

One surfer hanging out at the point 0720

Little thing up the beach but no takers

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea is moving east, extending a ridge to the north and directing east to northeast winds along the New South Wales coast. Little change in this pattern is expected until the next cold front with associated southerly winds over the weekend.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Thursday 28 December

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Friday 29 December

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the evening.

Video: beautiful wood boards!

Posted on December 26th, 2017 in Top stories.

I came across this story about Maine, USA wood board builders on Bloomberg of all places… when I grow up, I want a real wood board!


Messy SE morning

Posted on December 26th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Not looking like a great morning for a surf, sadly. As the pictures show, the 12-15 kt ESE wind was junking up the a gutless 6-sec 1.6 m SE wind swell and from what I could see, no one was in the water. The grey skies and cool temps aren’t encouraging participation either. Tide was low at 0820 and is now heading in to a 1.45 m high at 1430.
There’s no obvious reason to think things will improve surfwise as the day goes along. A good day to pursue your non-surfing interests. And sadly this morning’s swell models are offering no prospect of significant improvement for the coming week – and beyond. Wish it wasn’t the case, but there ya go. Typical summer I guess.
Have fun with your Boxing Day activities and see you tomorrow.


 

Weather Situation

A high pressure system near Tasmania is moving east, extending a ridge to the north and is directing southeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. Winds will turn east to northeasterly today and during Wednesday as the high moves over the southern Tasman Sea and continues to move east maintaining the ridge to the northwest.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots turning easterly 15 to 20 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Wednesday 27 December

Winds
Easterly 10 to 15 knots turning northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Thursday 28 December

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Christmas in south change Sydney

Posted on December 25th, 2017 in Dee Why.

Christmas morning up and riding at 0950


Hello Friends,
Christmas morning in Sydney sees grey skies with the occasional passing mist and a steady 10-15 kts of SSE wind (with the odd gust to 25 kts). Ah yes, classic Sydney summer day and just perfect for taking that new board for its first sesh. You’ll need to be brimming with Christmas stoke to look past the actual conditions which consist of the aforementioned southerly and knee to waist and a bit straight south dribble.
Tide was low at 0720 and is currently headed toward a 1.5 m high at 1140. We’re set to go to a high of 23 and ocean temp is sitting on 22 according to Beachwatch (seemed about that when I got in yesterday).
Huey’s definitely not in a festive mood (assuming the models are right) because it currently looks as though we’re facing a week plus of really weak, small and short period stuff. It’s set to be out of the easterly quarters (so at least not dead south) which may mean the odd ankle to knee session at the right tide at the right spot.
Have a great Christmas day one and all and see ya again tomorrow!

Hopeful sort hanging out at No Mans 0950

Weather Situation

A front with an associated southerly change will move up the northern coast today. Following this, a high pressure system is expected to become established over the Tasman Sea later today and during Tuesday. This high is forecast to remain in the region through the rest of the week, bringing a gradual shift from southeast to northeasterly winds.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots at times this morning. Winds turning southeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 2 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre by early evening.
Weather
Cloudy. 50% chance of showers.

Tuesday 26 December

Winds
East to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots offshore early in the morning.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy.

Wednesday 27 December

Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

 

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