The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted by: on January 11th, 2018

Saturday Update

For most of the NSW coast today, waves are in the 1-2 metre range from two swells East South East/North East…
In Sydney a southerly change in the afternoon means you should get in the water this morning if you’re thinking of looking for a surf.
The Southerly wind has already hit South Coast surf spots ….While people on the North Coast will have a bit more time to decide what they are doing… a fresh northerly is chopping up open beaches though making wave quality a bit ordinary.
But that change is expected to turn everything pear shaped on Sunday, so Saturday is definitely the day to go surfing in Sydney this weekend.
Currently overcast in Sydney with no wind or a light NW offshore just starting up. Max expected 33. High tide was just before 7am at 1.57m…going down now till Low at 1.30pm 0.56m.
And as per TG’s forecast below, there’ll be some solid swell pushing up along the NSW coast during next week but it looks like being for experts and the experienced only!
Sizes each day will depend on how quickly the Low down south moves off into the Tasman…
At this stage:
Sunday: strarting around 1-2 metres building up to say 2-3 m The BoM has a storng wind warning for winds up to 50kph on the coast in Sydney
Monday: 2=3 metres 3+ metres at dead South spots
Tuesday, Wednesday: 3-4 metres dead South
Thursday: Starting to ease back into the 1-2 metre range
All along the coast but all subject to the movements of the Low
Water temps today
Byron 22
Sydney 22, 23
Eden 22
Have fun!
Stay safe!

Friday Update

No significant change to the outlook below, so if you want a weekend surf I’d be looking at Saturday early on in the day.

The planned ‘Around the Bends’ Newport to Avalon, and annual Avalon Beach ocean swims scheduled for this Sunday by Avalon Beach SLSC, have been postponed to Sunday 8 April 2018, due to water safety concerns with the deteriorating weather and surf outlook for Sunday.

There’ll be some solid swell pushing up along the NSW coast from mid week onwards, but it will be for experts and the experienced only!

Stay safe everynone.

TG

Surf forecast issued Thursday 11 January 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Well, we’ve had some changeable weather, wind and smallish waves that were pleasant for some at times over the past week.

It looks like we’re going to get some more changeable weather and wind over the coming week with smallish waves at first.

But then, depending on what a Low that’s expected to form over Bass Strait does when it goes into the Tasman, we look like getting weather, wind and waves that’ll be not so pleasant for most people till possibly later in the week.

Lows have a habit of not doing what may be expected. You just can’t tell Mother Nature what to do. We’ll know more over coming days. At this stage TG can only go with what’s in his fogged up crystal ball.

Entries are open for the Around the Bends Swim from Newport to Avalon, and Avalon Beach Surf Swims this Sunday…

Details here for all you dedicated ocean swimmers…http://avalonbeachslsc.com.au/

Surf

Friday: around 1 metre South South East

Saturday: in the lower end of the 1-2 metre range South East/North East

Sunday: IF the expected Low moves as it’s expected and when it’s expected, then let’s say in the 1-2 metre range short period near to shore at places open to dead South at first, (bigger swell out offshore), with SSW swell and wind to start with, and then building into say the 2-3 metre range later on at dead South places …But all accompanied by windy S/SSW wind… so as it comes up the coast from way down South, NG for Sydney or the South Coast, and probably not much getting into the North Coats points.

Monday: ditto again re the Low(‘s) expectations… could be in the 2-3 , 3+ metre range with increasing wave period at dead South spots, (with SW/S/SE wind expected by the BoM)…still probably NG Sydney and South Coast; maybe North Coast?

Tuesday: ditto re Lowdown, say 3-4 metres of big period dead South swell (with SE wind)…probably NMG for most Sydney, South Coast; North Coast prospects looking better

Wednesday: ditto downLow, 4+ metres dead South (with light NE wind expected)… experts, experienced only for Sydney, South Coast, North Coast

Thursday: easing back to around 2-3 metres South East but still with solid wave periods

There you go.. Those glum people who weren’t looking forward to going back to work next week, now have something to smile about!

 

The rest of you: Try to enjoy!

TG

The Goat FAQ

Up in the Sky

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Jan 11 01:30:00 2018

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jan 11 00:00:00 2018 AUTC

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 22 in Sydney, 25 Byron, 23 Eden

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 26
Mostly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Mostly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower in the morning. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the afternoon.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Mostly cloudy.Sydney26
Mostly cloudy.Penrith31
Mostly cloudy.Liverpool30
Mostly cloudy.Terrey Hills26
Mostly cloudy.Richmond30
Mostly cloudy.Parramatta29
Mostly cloudy.Campbelltown30
Mostly cloudy.Bondi23

 

Friday 12 January

Summary
Min 21
Max 28
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm in the outer west in the afternoon and early evening. Light winds becoming northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 14 [Extreme]

Saturday 13 January

Summary
Min 23
Max 31
Showers increasing.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 5 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Hot. Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon. Winds northerly 15 to 25 km/h shifting west to southwesterly during the afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Sunday 14 January

Summary
Min 18
Max 23
Shower or two. Becoming windy.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning southerly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning then increasing to 25 to 40 km/h during the day.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Monday 15 January

Summary
Min 17
Max 25
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Winds southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h turning south to southeasterly during the morning.

Tuesday 16 January

Summary
Min 19
Max 25
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Winds southerly 20 to 30 km/h turning southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 17 January

Summary
Min 18
Max 27
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h during the day.

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