TG’s Surf Forecast

Posted by: on January 13th, 2018



Sunday Update

Don’t think you’re getting this treatment all the time… It’s just cause Don’s clearly busy on the other side of the Pacific.

When I first looked at my own little weather station at home it read 16 outside.  I thought it must be wrong, but the BoM says Sydney Airport on the coast right now is 17.8 with an apparent temp of 9.8!

While the sky is patchy as is the wind, at the airport it’s registering 52 kph gusts from SW.

The surf’s coming up but is messy.  Offshore it’s 3-6 metres from due South with 6-8 second periods.

The wind and the wave size will increase through the day. Showers, max 23 and ‘becoming windy’.

Have a good one doing something else.


Saturday Update

For most of the NSW coast today, waves are in the 1-2 metre range from two swells East South East/North East…
In Sydney a southerly change in the afternoon means you should get in the water this morning if you’re thinking of looking for a surf.
The Southerly wind has already hit South Coast surf spots ….While people on the North Coast will have a bit more time to decide what they are doing… a fresh northerly is chopping up open beaches though making wave quality a bit ordinary.
But that change is expected to turn everything pear shaped on Sunday, so Saturday is definitely the day to go surfing in Sydney this weekend.
Currently overcast in Sydney with no wind or a light NW offshore just starting up. Max expected 33. High tide was just before 7am at 1.57m…going down now till Low at 1.30pm 0.56m.
And as per TG’s forecast below, there’ll be some solid swell pushing up along the NSW coast during next week but it looks like being for experts and the experienced only!
Sizes each day will depend on how quickly the Low down south moves off into the Tasman…
At this stage:
Sunday: strarting around 1-2 metres building up to say 2-3 m The BoM has a storng wind warning for winds up to 50kph on the coast in Sydney
Monday: 2=3 metres 3+ metres at dead South spots
Tuesday, Wednesday: 3-4 metres dead South
Thursday: Starting to ease back into the 1-2 metre range
All along the coast but all subject to the movements of the Low
Water temps today
Byron 22
Sydney 22, 23
Eden 22
Have fun!
Stay safe!

Friday Update

No significant change to the outlook below, so if you want a weekend surf I’d be looking at Saturday early on in the day.

The planned ‘Around the Bends’ Newport to Avalon, and annual Avalon Beach ocean swims scheduled for this Sunday by Avalon Beach SLSC, have been postponed to Sunday 8 April 2018, due to water safety concerns with the deteriorating weather and surf outlook for Sunday.

There’ll be some solid swell pushing up along the NSW coast from mid week onwards, but it will be for experts and the experienced only!

Stay safe everynone.


Surf forecast issued Thursday 11 January 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Well, we’ve had some changeable weather, wind and smallish waves that were pleasant for some at times over the past week.

It looks like we’re going to get some more changeable weather and wind over the coming week with smallish waves at first.

But then, depending on what a Low that’s expected to form over Bass Strait does when it goes into the Tasman, we look like getting weather, wind and waves that’ll be not so pleasant for most people till possibly later in the week.

Lows have a habit of not doing what may be expected. You just can’t tell Mother Nature what to do. We’ll know more over coming days. At this stage TG can only go with what’s in his fogged up crystal ball.

Entries are open for the Around the Bends Swim from Newport to Avalon, and Avalon Beach Surf Swims this Sunday…

Details here for all you dedicated ocean swimmers…


Friday: around 1 metre South South East

Saturday: in the lower end of the 1-2 metre range South East/North East

Sunday: IF the expected Low moves as it’s expected and when it’s expected, then let’s say in the 1-2 metre range short period near to shore at places open to dead South at first, (bigger swell out offshore), with SSW swell and wind to start with, and then building into say the 2-3 metre range later on at dead South places …But all accompanied by windy S/SSW wind… so as it comes up the coast from way down South, NG for Sydney or the South Coast, and probably not much getting into the North Coats points.

Monday: ditto again re the Low(‘s) expectations… could be in the 2-3 , 3+ metre range with increasing wave period at dead South spots, (with SW/S/SE wind expected by the BoM)…still probably NG Sydney and South Coast; maybe North Coast?

Tuesday: ditto re Lowdown, say 3-4 metres of big period dead South swell (with SE wind)…probably NMG for most Sydney, South Coast; North Coast prospects looking better

Wednesday: ditto downLow, 4+ metres dead South (with light NE wind expected)… experts, experienced only for Sydney, South Coast, North Coast

Thursday: easing back to around 2-3 metres South East but still with solid wave periods

There you go.. Those glum people who weren’t looking forward to going back to work next week, now have something to smile about!


The rest of you: Try to enjoy!


The Goat FAQ

Colour Forecast map for next 4 days

Forecast for the rest of Saturday

Max 33
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers, most likely during this afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and early evening. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h shifting south to southeasterly 25 to 35 km/h in the late afternoon then decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h in the evening.

Fire Danger – Very High

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]


Sunday 14 January

Min 17
Max 23
Showers easing. Windy.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning. Winds southerly 25 to 35 km/h, reaching 50 km/h along the coast.

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