Hello Friends,
A light but steady NW breeze was blowing through the rigging as your correspondent climbed aloft for a look at the conditions just before 0800. Skies were mostly cloudy and the ocean surface had that nice groomed look from the light offshore. The Bureau tells us that we can expect a strongish 20-30 kt south change around midday. As of 0500 the MHL buoy was detecting a combination of NE and SE swell, with the latter being the dominant component thanks to an 11s period and 1.2 m height.
As the pictures show, there wasn’t a great deal going on at Dee Why. It was too small for the point and the beach looked to be inconsistently in the knee to maybe waist range. Tide was a 1.5 m high at 0615, so there was also a fatness factor. By the time the low arrives at 1300, the wind should be well and truly around to the southerly quarters.
The change isn’t expected to bring much in the way of a south pulse. The MHL model reckons average period will be around 7 sec from the south and the Bureau shows maximum heights around the 2 metre mark at the (brief) peak. The Bureau and the other modellers are generally predicting a small to marginal week surfwise.
The big system north of NZ that started showing up on long range models a few days ago, is still there this morning and right now the more hopeful predictions show it throwing the first long period (16-18s!) easterly forerunners at us late Thursday-early Friday.
If this thing plays out the way the models are currently showing, we could have overhead to 2x overhead (briefly) conditions from Friday through to the front half of next week at east magnets. Wind could be okay for the early sessions but it’ll probably be messy across the afternoons.
Anyway, always fun to have a big swell event on the cards, so in the meantime, have yourself a top old day!
Weather Situation
A cold front over Bass Strait will move north along the New South Wales coast today, bringing a fresh to strong southerly change. The front will reach the far north coast Monday morning. On Tuesday a ridge of high pressure will move into the Tasman Sea, bringing a return to north to northeast winds along the coast.
Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
- Winds
- North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots shifting southerly 20 to 30 knots in the middle of the day.
- Seas
- Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres around midday.
- Swell
- Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre by early evening.
- Weather
- Partly cloudy.
Monday 12 February
- Winds
- South to southeasterly about 10 knots tending easterly 10 to 15 knots in the late afternoon.
- Seas
- 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
- 1st Swell
- Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
- 2nd Swell
- Easterly around 1 metre.
- Weather
- Partly cloudy.
Tuesday 13 February
- Winds
- Easterly 10 to 15 knots tending northeasterly during the evening.
- Seas
- Around 1 metre.
- 1st Swell
- Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon or evening.
- 2nd Swell
- Easterly around 1 metre.
- Weather
- Partly cloudy.