Archive for May 2018

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on May 31st, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 31 May 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Tomorrow is the first day of Winter! and there’ll be a 17 max temp to welcome you…not to mention a big windchill to make it feel even colder.

There’s been strong SSW/S 40-50 kph winds and cold air today. It’s only reached 16 so far with an apparent temp of 7.

I see rolling swells out to sea, but inshore it’s still rather modest. Ships off Newcastle have weighed anchor and have headed out to sea to ride out some expected nasty conditions.

Some of the models aren’t automatically updating themselves.   No doubt wanting to see what a Low that forms off the coast is expected to do, which will tweak the numbers and direction.

If the Low does what TG thinks, there will be a lot of SW in it, which will keep the nevertheless sizable swell inshore, not as big as out where the ships will be.

Overall, TG doesn’t see much attraction in thinking about getting wet in the ocean and trying to ride a surfingboard over its surface for the next several days…

Friday: up from today, into the 3-4 metre range, shortish period at dead South places.. and windy and cold Yumm

Saturday: around the 3-4 metre range dead South, with bigger sets from South East.. and windy and cold

Sunday: in the 3-4 metre range, maybe bit bigger but shortish period…and windy and cold

Monday: 2-3ish metres range East South East.. with wind and cold

Tuesday: let’s say, dittoish

Wednesday: oh, and ditto

Thursday: 1-2 metre range South East.

Ok… a bit of a bummer for most normal people.

Just relax chillout chillax and listen to this week’s oldie but a goodie.

TG

Up in the Sky

image

MSLP Analysis for Thu May 31 00:00:00 2018 AUTC

Wind

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.889,151.216,7

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 20…

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 19
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds south to southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h, reaching up to 45 km/h near the coast.

Large and powerful surf conditions developing in the afternoon and evening are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Mostly sunny.Sydney19
Mostly sunny.Penrith19
Mostly sunny.Liverpool19
Mostly sunny.Terrey Hills17
Mostly sunny.Richmond19
Mostly sunny.Parramatta19
Mostly sunny.Campbelltown19
Windy. Mostly sunny.Bondi17

 

Friday 1 June

Summary
Min 11
Max 17
Windy. Cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Winds southwesterly 30 to 45 km/h.

Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Saturday 2 June

Summary
Min 11
Max 18
Becoming windy. Cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Winds southwesterly 25 to 40 km/h.

Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Sunday 3 June

Summary
Min 12
Max 19
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. Winds south to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Monday 4 June

Summary
Min 12
Max 19
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning southerly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.

Tuesday 5 June

Summary
Min 11
Max 18
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds southerly 15 to 25 km/h.

Wednesday 6 June

Summary
Min 12
Max 19
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely during the morning. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds.


Fun for longboards

Posted on May 31st, 2018 in Manly.

Knee to waist high little lines for mal riders on a sparkling Thursday morning at Manly.


The Bureau says swell’s on its way

Posted on May 31st, 2018 in Surf Reports.

Hello Friends,

As of 0600 the MHL buoy was seeing 1.8 m of SSE swell at 9 seconds. Wind was west at 10-15 kts under clear skies. There were a couple of people hanging out at the point for the very rare waist high set. I couldn’t see anyone in the water at Kiddies or up toward No Mans. The Bureau’s hoisted a gale warning for the wind to go SW and ramp up into the 20-30 kt + range by this afternoon. The swell is supposed to track up with the increasing wind and it’s predicted to be in the 4-5 m range at south magnets by dark. Tomorrow looks pretty ordinary with a gale warning, showery weather and 4-6 metres (!!) of south swell. Tide will hit a 1.38 m high at 0925 and be back to low at 1500. There’s a 1.8 m high tide at 2130, so south facing stretches could see some serious sand transport action.
It looks as though we have to wait until Saturday-Sunday for the wind to move off the dead south setting… it’ll be very interesting to see the Goat’s thoughts this evening.
Stay happy and have a top old Thursday!

Tiny at Kiddies

Tiny at No Mans

There’s more where that came from…after a long wait a single catchable wave arrives at 0735

Weather Situation
A low pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea is deepening and very slowly moving east directing vigorous southerly winds and large powerful southerly swell along the New South Wales coast. Winds are expected to ease during Sunday as a high pressure ridge develops across the western Tasman Sea.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Gale Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southwesterly 20 to 30 knots, reaching up to 40 knots during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, increasing to 3 to 4 metres around midday.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres around midday, then increasing to 4 to 5 metres by early evening.
Weather
Mostly sunny morning. 60% chance of showers during this afternoon and evening.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions in the afternoon and evening are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Friday 1 June
Gale Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 30 to 40 knots.
Seas
3 to 4 metres.
Swell
Southerly 4 to 6 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers offshore, 50% chance elsewhere.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Saturday 2 June
Winds
Southerly 30 to 35 knots turning southwesterly 25 to 30 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, increasing to 3 to 4 metres offshore.
Swell
Southerly 3 to 5 metres, decreasing to 3 metres during the evening.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.


Into the holding pattern

Posted on May 30th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Just about flat this morning. The MHL buoy was showing 0.7 m of 10-sec east bump. Wind was out of the WSW at 10-15 kts and skies were picturesquely adorned with some fine sky furniture (sorry, can’t resist the cloud pictures!).

As you’ll see from the Bureau’s forecast below, the wind is set to pick up from the southwest by midday as the new south pulse starts to fill in. As of 0600 the Batemans Bay MHL buoy was showing 2 metres of dead south wind swell (period was only 6 seconds).

The models are projecting the swell to stay straight south and for the average periods to stay below the 10 second mark until around Friday as the swell dials up to full power. Even the most conservative estimates project wave heights of close to 3 metres through to Monday.

Interesting prospects.

Have a great Wednesday everyone!

City and clouds

 

Swirl

 

Micro Dee Why at 0730

 

Weather Situation

A front that is currently moving into northeastern parts of the state will bring a gusty southerly change to central and northern waters today. A high is then expected to move across from the west during the latter part of the week, while a low deepens over the Tasman Sea, building a large southerly swell along the New South Wales coast.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Gale Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northwest to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots becoming southwesterly 20 to 30 knots in the middle of the day. Winds reaching up to 35 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres around midday.
Swell
Southeasterly below 1 metre, tending southerly 1.5 to 2 metres around midday.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm.

Thursday 31 May

Gale Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 25 knots increasing to 25 to 30 knots in the morning. Winds reaching up to 40 knots during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, increasing to 2.5 to 4 metres around midday.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 4 metres around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions in the afternoon and evening are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Friday 1 June

Winds
South to southwesterly 30 to 40 knots.
Seas
3 to 4 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres inshore, increasing to 2 to 4 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Down to marginal for Tuesday morning

Posted on May 29th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
As of 0730 a light NW breeze was ruffling the sea under mostly clear skies. Swell has dropped another 30 cm since yesterday at this time and as of 0600 was a metre at 10 seconds from the SE. What that meant for Dee Why was long waits for maybe waist high bumps.
Tide was high at 0840 so it is now running out to the low at 1430
Surf prospects don’t look like improving today but from tomorrow the energy levels should start going up again as we head toward a significant south pulse from about Friday.
Have a great Tuesday!

Hopefuls at the point and tiny on the beach

 

Hanging about, waiting for a wave at 0700

 

Air quality in town not looking good

Weather Situation

A front over the west of the state will continue to move east today, bringing a gusty southerly change to southern waters tonight. Gusty southerly winds will extend through central and northern areas on Wednesday. Behind this, a new high is expected to move across from the west during the latter part of the week, while a low deepens over the Tasman Sea, building a large southerly swell along the New South Wales coast.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Wednesday 30 May

Strong Wind Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast

Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots shifting southwesterly 20 to 25 knots in the morning. Winds reaching up to 30 knots during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres around midday.
Swell
Southeasterly below 1 metre, tending southerly 1 to 1.5 metres around midday, then increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres by early evening.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Thursday 31 May

Winds
Southwesterly 25 to 40 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, increasing to 3 to 4 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, increasing to 3 to 5 metres during the evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Pics from Dee Why beach and Curly Sunday morning

Posted on May 28th, 2018 in Curl Curl, Dee Why, Don's surfin' pics.

Lots of swell and lots of people in the water on Sunday, so I went shooting in the morning. Herewith links to a couple of galleries…

89 pictures from Dee Why beach. Started shooting at 0955 went until 1005 (have more shots, but they’re not uploaded yet)

Clicking here takes you to the gallery

 (Don Norris)

120 pictures from mid-Curl Curl. Started shooting at 1120, finished at 1140  (have more shots, but they’re not uploaded yet)

Clicking here takes you to the gallery

 (Don Norris)


Fading swell but still a few left in the locker

Posted on May 28th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Swell has dropped again overnight and as of 0600 the MHL buoy was picking up 1.3 metres of 11-second SE (135°).  Wind was coming from the WNW at around 5 kts around 0730. The forecast says this will drift around to the north to NE as the day goes along. The waves should kind of hang in there at around the current intensity too.

Speaking of which, as the pics show, there were still a few chest to shoulder high moments on offer as the day kicked off. But for the most part I’d be expecting knee to waist will be much more common.

Outlook is for surf to bumble along at the current intensity for another 24-48 hours and then the models tells us to expect a new south pulse to start making itself felt from Wednesday. Yesterday the long range models were projecting an intense event toward the weekend but this morning sees those predictions dialled back. They’re still calling for it to be pretty reasonable though (peaking in the 3 metre range on Saturday).

Have a top old Monday and check back later to see the two new galleries of pics from yesterday at Dee Why and Curly…

 

Clean looking little wave

 

Some activity along the berach

 

Not sure about No Mans at 0730

 

Smoky morning

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is moving slowly east, directing southeast to northeasterly winds onto the New South Wales coast today. Winds will shift north to northeasterly on Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the west. This front will bring a gusty southerly change to southern waters late Tuesday, extending through central and northern areas on Wednesday. Behind this, a new high is expected to move across from the west during the latter part of the week, while a low deepens over the Tasman Sea.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching 20 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Tuesday 29 May

Winds
Northerly 10 to 15 knots, reaching 20 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
South to southeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Wednesday 30 May

Winds
Northwesterly 10 to 15 knots turning southwesterly 20 to 30 knots during the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southeasterly below 1 metre, tending southerly 1.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning.

Shooting at Curly

Posted on May 27th, 2018 in Curl Curl, Surf Reports.

Will take a few snaps at curly to share later. Sets in head to head plus range.


Shooting at dy beach

Posted on May 27th, 2018 in Dee Why, Surf Reports.

Waiting for photo opportunities in the dropping tide shutdowns. Sets to head and a bit and same at point. Crowded of course. Gallery of snaps up by tomorrow am


PIctures from Saturday morning at Dee Why point

Posted on May 27th, 2018 in Dee Why, Top stories.

A few pictures from the 244-picture gallery posted on Sunday 27 May 18…
(Clicking here will take you to the gallery)

 

 (Don Norris)

 (Don Norris)

 (Don Norris)

 (Don Norris)

 (Don Norris)

 (Don Norris)


 

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