"Stay happy and you'll be perfectly fine" - Jack Norris

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 10 May 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

People at the beach are telling me: “It’s gonna be huge here tomorrow…6 or 7 metres”  Apparently that’s what other sources are saying ….

When I hear that all over the place, I’m reminded of the 1964 song “Suspicion…” that I coincidentally heard on the rad only a little while ago 🙂 Hey, maybe that’s what reminded me… (PS it’s Not Elvis)…

And so I have a little independent think about it, while I grab some grains of salt, and start rummaging around in the Goat’s Guts.

First thing to note is TG doesn’t think it will be huge tomorrow at least…

Second of all, the larger stuff forecast for Saturday etc from the computer generated material that others regurgitate, seems to TG to be pretty dependent on what a Low that’s expected to form down South does, and while it may pan out that way, be prepared to adjust your expectations.

And c) TG is just suspicious by nature about such things, having seen so many forecasts generated from computer models, and heard so many “rolled gold” guarantees on all manner of things, over the years.

On the other hand, TG doesn’t want to look like a Big Goose too, so he won’t say that can’t happen… That’s the current spit out from the models, but it wouldn’t surprise him if some of those models get revised.

Here’s his take on things… First it’ll be windy, from various directions, and it’ll likely be bigger offshore most of the time, but as far as surf goes

Friday: probably too much West and SW in the wind and swell for much to be coming in, so around 1 metre or so East

Saturday: probably still SW swell, so most will be going on past. But it could have a longish period so let’s say in the 1-2 metre range at dead South spots, with sets getting in to some corners that could be 2-3 metres

Sunday: 1-2 metre range, 2+ ,and sets at dead South spots that may be around 2-3 metres

Monday: up in the 2-3 metre range South East

Tuesday: dittoish

Wednesday: ditto at dead South places

Thursday: 2-2+ metres South East

Unique I know, not huge, but biggish at times. But there you go…  TG is unique. If there was a song ” Skeptical….” I’d have played it 🙂

Up in the Sky

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu May 10 05:30:00 2018

MSLP Analysis for Thu May 10 00:00:00 2018 AUTC

Wind

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216/waves?-34.726,151.216,7,m:cIJaknc

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 21, 22.. still pleasant for a swim, or surf sans wettie… up to today.

Saw my first whale of the Up Season this week, as the warm water starts receding Northward.

 

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 25
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h turning west to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h in the early afternoon. Winds reaching up to 40 km/h near the coast later. An Air Quality Forecast alert of POOR for the Sydney region has been issued today as PARTICLE levels are forecast to exceed national air quality standards for today Thursday 10th May 2018.

Sun protection recommended from 10:30 am to 1:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Partly cloudy. Sydney 25
Partly cloudy. Penrith 25
Partly cloudy. Liverpool 25
Mostly sunny. Terrey Hills 23
Mostly sunny. Richmond 25
Mostly sunny. Parramatta 25
Partly cloudy. Campbelltown 25
Partly cloudy. Bondi 23

 

Friday 11 May

Summary
Min 9
Max 17
Windy. Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds west to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h becoming westerly 35 to 50 km/h in the morning then decreasing to 25 to 40 km/h in the evening.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Saturday 12 May

Summary
Min 12
Max 20
Shower or two. Wind easing.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. Winds westerly 25 to 35 km/h turning southwesterly during the morning.

Surf conditions may be more powerful than they appear and are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing and swimming.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Sunday 13 May

Summary
Min 13
Max 20
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning. Winds southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h turning southerly 25 to 40 km/h during the morning.

Sun protection recommended from 10:50 am to 12:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Monday 14 May

Summary
Min 15
Max 20
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. Winds south to southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h.

Tuesday 15 May

Summary
Min 14
Max 21
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Winds southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h turning south to southeasterly during the morning.

Wednesday 16 May

Summary
Min 11
Max 22
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds.