Archive for November 2018

Home again and there are still waves this morning

Posted on November 30th, 2018 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Good to be back in Sydney once more. Good too to see there’s some energy around. As the pictures show, the surface conditions at 0720 were not looking exceptionally inviting. Interestingly, despite the heavy rain a couple of days ago, Beachwatch is calling most spots clean. The exceptions were at Birdwood lagoon, North Curly and Queenscliff. I was expecting warmer water after a month away though. Apparently it’s still on 19C. Aso of 0500 the MHL buoy off Sydney was picking up activity from the north and SSE. The latter is dominating with swell heights at 2.7 metres from 154-162°. Tide is low at 0955 and then back to a deepish 1.6m high at 1505. Should be a mild 23 today with a 40% chance of a light shower this afternoon. At report writing time, wind was light westerly, but that should swing more SW soon and then go onshore this afternoon.
Looking at where the crowd was sitting at Dee Why, I’d say set wave faces will be overhead to maybe even 1.5x on the bombs.

And the outlook? Well, the ever reliable Goat has rolled out his call for the coming week and I commend it to you.
Have a great Friday everyone!

 

Weather Situation

A low pressure system in the Tasman Sea has moved well east of the coast. A high pressure ridge will extend across New South Wales today, and shift into the Tasman Sea on Saturday with winds gradually tending north to northeasterly. The next southerly change is expected along the southern half of the coast during Sunday, and extend along northern parts during Monday. Later Monday another southerly change is expected along the far southern coast.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
South to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots turning southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm inshore this afternoon and early evening.

Saturday 1 December

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre by early evening.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Sunday 2 December

Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots shifting southerly 20 to 25 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

0720 25 people chasing head high sets

Not super clean, but better than yesterday

The point at 0720

Looks like the odd solid one along the beach


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on November 29th, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 29 November 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

That delightful Low that gave a a nice drop of rain and a free hairstyle has moved offshore, and we can expect some sunny days for a little bit at least.

The other good thing was that all that rain, besides topping up the dams, watering some crops etc, gave my car a free wash and cleaned off all the red dust from the dust storm the week before.

See, it really is an ill wind that blows no one some good… Never mind the surf… which has been pretty atrocious most of the time.

Tomorrow you still might want to do something else, and maybe rest up ! till  Sunday, or later Monday maybe, but don’t get your hopes up.

If you have low expectations you won’t be disappointed.

Friday: around the upper end of the 1-2 metre range or 2, 2+ East South East but who cares

Saturday: around the upper end of the 1-2 metre range East South East

Sunday: in the 1-2 metre range East

Monday: in the 1-2 metre range at dead South places after an overnight southerly change

Tuesday: lower end of the 1-2 metre range dead South increasing through the day

Wednesday: in the 1-2 metre range dead at South spots, with some sets

Thursday: let’s call it ditto

Sigh

TG

Up in the Sky

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Nov 29 06:30:00 2018

MSLP Analysis for Thu Nov 29 00:00:00 2018 AUTC

Wind

https://www.windy.com/?-33.632,151.324,5,i:pressure

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 20

image

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2018-2019.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Winds southerly 25 to 35 km/h tending southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Friday 30 November

Summary
Min 16
Max 23
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the west in the afternoon. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning south to southeasterly in the morning then becoming light in the middle of the day.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Saturday 1 December

Summary
Min 16
Max 25
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the early afternoon then becoming light in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Sunday 2 December

Summary
Min 18
Max 33
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds north to northwesterly and light increasing to 20 to 30 km/h during the day then shifting southerly 25 to 35 km/h during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Monday 3 December

Summary
Min 17
Max 28
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds southerly 15 to 20 km/h shifting west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning then becoming light during the evening.

Tuesday 4 December

Summary
Min 17
Max 24
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 5 December

Summary
Min 17
Max 23
Cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds.

Thursday 6 December

Summary
Min 17
Max 24
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm during the morning. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


Wednesday report

Posted on November 28th, 2018 in At large.

 

Thunderstorms, heavy rain, onshore wind… so

No

No

No

That’s all


Saturday surf report

Posted on November 24th, 2018 in At large.
The strong westerly winds that were blowing for the last couple of days basically flattened the surf yesterday, but it’s come up a bit today… But only at places open to the South.
The MHL buoy is showing 2.4 – 3.6 metres of dead South swell going up the coast… most of that size is heading straight past Sydney because of the swell direction
Surf is around the middle of the 1-2 metre range at dead South spots..with not much elsewhere.
Wind is W at around 30ks..not as bad as yesterday and the Bureau expects it to ease later and turn SE.
Water temp’s around 19.
The Bureau has a ‘large and powerful surf’ warning for tomorrow and Monday, but TG thinks that tomorrow the surf will be pretty similar to today and depend on what direction the beach faces as the swell will still be dead South.  Bigger Monday.
Have a good one.

Friday report

Posted on November 23rd, 2018 in Surf Reports.

Windy, sunny, 17 but apparent temp is 7 on the coast.

Little waves 1 metre and less trying hard to struggle against the 50-60k west wind.

Air seems clear so far.


Offshore but micro for Friday morning plus postcards

Posted on November 23rd, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Looking pretty small in Sydney this morning and as of 0630 the WNW wind was already into the 15-25 kt range. It’s gonna blow like this all day according to the Bureau. There’s just under a metre of 11-sec south swell out at sea, but I’m guessing it’ll be hard to find much of anything in the surfable range. Tide’s coming into a 1.74 m high around 0815 – so that’ll be working against you as well.
Should be a niceish day otherwise.

0530 and looking very tiny at sth Narrabeen – WRL cam

Meanwhile your correspondent is enjoying the Thanksgiving holiday here in the US. The rellies are hard at work on feast prep as I write this. California has just had a little rain too, so the smoky skies have cleared away. I’m inland and remaining so into next week, but out at the beach the swell has perked. Went by Trestles on the train yesterday evening and grabbed a postcard for you. (Yep, the tracks run that close to the beach!)
I may or may not be able to post anything for the next 4-5 days – and then I’m headed home to dear old Sydney, whereupon normal service will resume.
Have a great Friday!

Trestles evening session from the train

Weather Situation
A low pressure system near Tasmania and southeastern Victoria is deepening in response to a cold front. This is generating storm force west to southwesterly winds along the far southern waters with vigorous westerly winds over remaining coastal areas today and tomorrow. On Saturday this low is forecast to weaken and slowly move east, resulting in winds shifting more southerly and easing.

Forecast for Friday until midnight
Gale Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Westerly 25 to 30 knots, reaching up to 35 knots offshore early in the morning and again in the late evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, increasing to 2.5 to 3 metres offshore.
Swell
Southeasterly below 1 metre, tending southerly 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Sunny.
Saturday 24 November
Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
West to southwesterly 20 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots during the morning and early afternoon. Winds turning southerly 15 to 25 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres offshore.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Sunday 25 November
Winds
West to southwesterly about 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots during the morning then tending south to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots during the day.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly 2.5 to 3 metres.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on November 22nd, 2018 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 22 November 2018: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

How’s that wind!? 40-50 ks with 70-80 k gusts NW / WNW. Blew my hat off a couple of times! and gave my hair and car a light dusting of red soil from someone’s paddock out west, to mix in with the drops of water from a sudden shower.. ahh the Marvels of Nature.

Timed my visit to the beach just as the wind was really picking up and everyone was getting out because no one likes spray in their eyes… so missed out.  Memo to self: Must try harder. Maybe tomorrow…?

Hmm.. more wind and smaller surf.  We’ll see.

Oh you’ll see so many different estimates of the surf outlook from looking at computer models and that Low down south

But here’s TG’s best guess to help you…

Friday: down from today… 1 metre or less South East

Saturday: around the middle of the 1-2 metre range at dead South spots..not much elsewhere

Sunday: in the 1-2 metre range at dead South places

Monday: coming up into the 2-3 metre range South East

Tuesday: down into the 1-2 metre range South East

Wednesday: 1-2 metre range East South East

Thursday: coming up 2- 2+ metres only at dead South places.

Enjoy.

TG.

Up in the Air

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Nov 22 03:30:00 2018

MSLP Analysis for Thu Nov 22 00:00:00 2018 AUTC

Wind

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.889,151.216,7,i:pressure,m:cIJaknc

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 20

image

Tide

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2018-2019.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 26
Windy. Morning shower. Dust haze.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 3mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Dust haze. Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of a shower mainly in the north and east this morning. Winds northwesterly 20 to 25 km/h tending westerly 25 to 30 km/h in the morning then increasing to 30 to 45 km/h in the middle of the day.

An Air Quality Alert of POOR for the Sydney region has been issued by NSW OEH today as PM10 levels are forecast to exceed national air quality standards.

Fire Danger – Very High

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Windy. Morning shower. Dust haze.Sydney26
Windy. Dust haze.Penrith26
Windy. Dust haze.Liverpool26
Windy. Morning shower. Dust haze.Terrey Hills24
Windy. Morning shower. Dust haze.Richmond26
Windy. Morning shower. Dust haze.Parramatta26
Windy. Dust haze.Campbelltown25
Windy. Morning shower. Dust haze.Bondi26

Friday 23 November

Summary
Min 15
Max 25
Becoming windy. Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds westerly 25 to 35 km/h increasing to 30 to 45 km/h in the morning.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Saturday 24 November

Summary
Min 15
Max 24
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds westerly 20 to 30 km/h tending southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Sunday 25 November

Summary
Min 15
Max 23
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day then tending south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Monday 26 November

Summary
Min 15
Max 23
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning southeasterly during the day.

Tuesday 27 November

Summary
Min 16
Max 26
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning westerly later.

Wednesday 28 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 26
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower during the morning. Winds westerly 25 to 35 km/h.


Marginal Monday in Sydney and a postcard or two from Cali

Posted on November 19th, 2018 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Light wind early and according to the Bureau it will only come up a touch in the middle of the day. As of 0600 there was a combo of 1.6 metre 10-sec SSE and some smaller NNE swell getting in. Looked to be in the waist-ish range. Next tide’s a low at 1125 and weather outlook is for a mild 23C and partly cloudy. According to Beachwatch the water temp has dropped slightly to 19C.

Today’s surf prospects look better than tomorrow’s for Sydney, but Wednesday could see some improvement for north corners.

Here in California the little NW pulse has faded to tiny again for my region. Santa Barbara is pretty much flat, but there are long boardable things in Ventura and way up north in Santa Cruz they’re seeing lumpy shoulder to head high.

Steamer Lane, Santa Cruz. Small crew for a Sunday SURFLINE pic

Leadbetter point, Santa Barbara – ankle high on sets SUFLINE pic

Ventura Fairgrounds looking fun for longboards and not insanely crowded for a Sunday. SURFLINE pic

Have yourself a top old Monday!

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea extends a ridge along the New South Wales coast. East to southeasterly winds will gradually tend north to northeasterly and freshen over the next day or two as the ridge moves offshore and the next cold front approaches. This front is forecast to bring a southerly change to southern waters on Wednesday. Another front and is expected to cross southern and central parts of the coast during Thursday as a low forms over the southwestern Tasman Sea.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds
East to northeasterly below 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Tuesday 20 November

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres around midday.
Swell
South to southeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Wednesday 21 November

Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, tending southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers.

Scrappy but catchable for Sunday morning

Posted on November 18th, 2018 in Surf Reports.

Hello Friends,

Tide was high at 0540ish and is running out low at 1020. Wind is SSE 10 kts as of 0700, so quality of the 2 metre short period dead south/north combo will not be good. Best spots should have okay wave faces (waist plus).
Surf outlook is not great for the front half of the week, but if you want to get in no matter what, there should be the odd junk burger to keep you amused. Dial down the expectations and you’ll be fine!

WRL cam Sunday am early. Maybe something at north ends?

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over Tasmania is moving east and extending a ridge, as well as directing south to southeasterly winds, along the New South Wales coast. As the high moves over the southern Tasman Sea early next week, winds will gradually tend north to northeasterly and freshen ahead of the next cold front. This front is forecast to bring a southerly change to southern waters on Wednesday.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning easterly below 10 knots in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Monday 19 November
Winds
Easterly 10 to 15 knots tending northeasterly in the late evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Tuesday 20 November
Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.


Saturday surf report

Posted on November 17th, 2018 in At large.

There are waves around ..bit choppy and of variable quality.  MHL buoy is showing 1.2 – 1.9 metres from SSE.  Tide is going out with Low at 10.40 am.

Conditions aren’t great with a light Southerly blowing and expected to freshen later. There are a lot of people are out getting wet already.  I suspect many are kids letting off stem after the HSC.

Water temp is around 20.


 

Page optimized by WP Minify WordPress Plugin