Archive for March 2019

Dropped from small to tiny

Posted on March 25th, 2019 in Surf Reports.

Looking flat at Dee Why this morning

Hello Friends,

Short and not so sweet: it’s flat and rainy this morning.

Outlook varies a little between the ECM and Wavewatch driven models, with the latter being a little more optimistic about the prospects late in the week when they see a long period south pulse on Thursday into Friday.

As always, we’ll see what happens… but for today and tomorrow, it’s near flat wherever you look. Have a top old day everybody!

Weather Situation

Ahead of a strong front winds are north to northwesterly. The front is forecast to bring a fresh to strong south to southwesterly change to the southern half of the coast today that will continue through to the far north coast on Tuesday. A high pressure ridge is expected to build in the wake of the front during Tuesday and Wednesday as a high centre to the west drifts across south-eastern Australia, with winds tending east to southeasterly.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northwesterly 15 to 20 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of showers.

Tuesday 26 March

Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 20 knots turning southeasterly in the late afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday, then decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Wednesday 27 March

Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots turning easterly during the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1 to 2 metres offshore.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Busy little waves for Dee Why this morning

Posted on March 24th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Pretty similar set of numbers from the MHL buoy compared to the same time yesterday (a metre of SSE 8-sec stuff). So, I’d expect about the same surfing conditions, ie knee to waist plus with the odd bigger one and somewhat inconsistent. Surface conditions are reasonably clean thanks to 10 kts of WNW wind. It’s set to swing southerly in the late afternoon, so I’d say at least where the wind’s concerned, it should be pretty reasonable all day. Tide is coming into a 1.63 m high at 1150.

The long term outlook hasn’t changed much either. Essentially the indications are that we’re going to bump around the metre mark with period fluctuating between 8 and 10 seconds for the next week and beyond.

Heading to a high of 30C today and water is still on 24C.

Have a good one!

 

Lotsa folk in the water at 0830 Sunday morning

Judging by the people, there are a few waves up the beach too

Weather Situation

A weak ridge across the coast is directing north to northeasterly winds. A brief southerly change will affect the southern coast today in association with a weak front slipping to the south of the state. Then a stronger front is forecast to bring a fresh to strong south to southwesterly change on Monday that will continue through to the far north coast on Tuesday.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Winds
North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds shifting southerly in the late afternoon then becoming variable about 10 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm late this afternoon and evening.

Monday 25 March

Winds
North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending north to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Winds reaching up to 25 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.

Tuesday 26 March

Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 25 knots turning southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Good day for an election

Posted on March 23rd, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,
Our civic duty calls fellow NSW’ers, so vote before or after ya surf!

Take the longest, floatiest option you have because it’s knee to maybe waist and weak as a very weak thing. From Northy to Kiddies and for a long way north and south of there, it is struggling to be surfable. Still, water’s warm, and so you might as well go for a paddle. Who knows, maybe you’ll be one of the lucky ones to jag a waist plus bomb!

On the numbers front, we have about a metre of 8-second bump coming mainly from the SSE (156°) with 6-7 kts of W-WNW breeze at daybreak. Tide is coming into a 1.77 m high at 1100 and water is 24C. Water quality should be good along the Northern Beaches – but not so hot over in Eastern Suburbs (but check Beachwatch for the latest). We’re heading to a high of 28C along the coast on what promises to be a partly cloudy day with a chance of a thunderstorm later.

Outlook for tomorrow is for maybe a slight improvement due to a bit longer period. Well, at least according to one of the model interpretations I checked this morning. Beyond that, it looks, as the Goat said like another week of weak.

Enjoy!

Lotsa kiddies at Kiddies 0700

Hopefuls at the point

Action at the Pole

The Pole

Northy crew per usual

south Narra naw

 

Weather Situation

A weakening trough has been replaced by a weak ridge generating north to northeasterly winds. A brief southerly change will affect the southern coasts on Sunday in association with a weak front slipping to the south of the state. Then a stronger front is forecast to bring a fresh to strong southerly change on Monday that will continue through to the far north coast by late Tuesday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming north to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots from the late morning, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm late this afternoon and evening.

Sunday 24 March

Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots turning south to southeasterly about 10 knots in the afternoon, then tending east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knot in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Monday 25 March

Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning north to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots during the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre, reaching up to 1.5 metres offshore in the morning.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of rain.

Little waves for Friday morning

Posted on March 22nd, 2019 in Dee Why.

Little peak at Dee Why 0720

Hello Friends,

Interesting. There was a waist high peak at Kiddies around 0730 this morning. For the first time in many days, there was a proper crowd on it too. A couple people were at the point as well, but I didn’t see them catch anything. The MHL buoy isn’t looking special either. As of 0500 it was seeing a metre of 9-second swell from the SSE (160°). Tide was filling into a swampy 1.8 m high at 1010. Water temp is sitting on 24C according to Beachwatch – which is reporting everywhere apart from Long Reef as having good water quality.

The Goat’s forecast is up, so I’ll confine myself to observing that I’m a bit more hopeful about next week too…

Weather Situation

A broad trough of low pressure is lingering over the western Tasman Sea, directing generally southerly winds along the New South Wales coast. Winds should shift northerly later today and on Saturday as the trough weakens and is replaced by a weak ridge. A brief southerly change will affect southern parts of the coast during Sunday. The next cold front looks set to bring a more significant southerly change through southern waters on Monday, continuing through to the north on Tuesday.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
South to southeasterly below 10 knots becoming east to northeasterly in the evening.
Seas
Below 0.5 metres.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon.

Saturday 23 March

Winds
North to northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day. Winds reaching up to 20 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
Below 0.5 metres, increasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.

Sunday 24 March

Winds
North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots shifting south to southeasterly during the day, then tending east to northeasterly in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on March 21st, 2019 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 21 March 2019: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Nothing too thrilling on the horizon as far as surf goes. Small to medium mostly and with various winds. There are some times when light winds or slightly offshore are forecast and you might be able to jag a rideable wave.  Otherwise… just relaaxx.

Let’s keep it simple:

Friday: somewhere in the lower half of the 1-2 metre range from the East (light winds)

Saturday: ditto (light, N,NE, light)

Sunday: down to around 1 metre East (light, SE)

Monday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range North East (light. NW)

Tuesday: ditto (SW)

Wednesday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range at dead South places (SSW)

Thursday: ditto (S)

Don’t forget to vote on Saturday.

You know those animals they say can pick the outcome of elections… Well The Goat is running around like a headless chook!  Don’t know what that means.

Up in the Sky

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Mar 21 04:30:00 2019

MSLP Analysis for Thu Mar 21 00:00:00 2019 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8,i:pressure,m:cIJaknc

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 23, 24.

image

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2018-2019.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 26
A few showers.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Mostly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers grading to high (80%) near the coast, more likely this morning. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h tending south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 9:50 am to 4:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
A few showers.Sydney26
Shower or two.Penrith29
Shower or two.Liverpool28
A few showers.Terrey Hills24
Shower or two.Richmond28
Shower or two.Parramatta26
Shower or two.Campbelltown28
A few showers.Bondi24

Friday 22 March

Summary
Min 20
Max 26
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 9:50 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

Saturday 23 March

Summary
Min 19
Max 28
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:50 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

Sunday 24 March

Summary
Min 21
Max 30
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:40 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

Monday 25 March

Summary
Min 21
Max 31
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.

Tuesday 26 March

Summary
Min 18
Max 25
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h.

Wednesday 27 March

Summary
Min 17
Max 22
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower, most likely later in the day. Winds south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h.


Clean but very small

Posted on March 21st, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Smooth seas inshore before 0900 this morning. Waves were tiny – maybe ankle to knee plus with the odd slightly bigger set. Skies were mostly overcast and wind was coming lightly from the west. It will come around to the south later as it builds into the 10-15 kt range. There was quite a distinct, if very small line showing and sure enough, a look at the MHL data showed we were getting a metre of 13-second SSE swell. First tide of the day is a 1.95 m high at 0920. The weather forecast is for a medium chance of light showers with a summery high of 26C. Water is 24C and clean at most beaches along the peninsula (there’s a question mark over Long Reef for some reason).

It’ll be interesting to see the Goat’s take on the week ahead’s surf prospects. From my quick scan of the models, it looks pretty quiet for us.

Have a great Thursday and check back later for the Goat’s words of wisdom!

Foil board rider having fun at the point

Rescue boards about right for the shorey at Kiddies

Clean lhigh tide line

Weather Situation

A broad trough of low pressure is lingering over the western Tasman Sea, directing generally southerly winds along the New South Wales coast. Winds should shift morning northerly later on Friday and Saturday as the trough weakens and is replaced by a weak ridge. A brief southerly change will affect southern parts of the coast during Sunday. The next cold front looks set to bring a more significant southerly change through southern waters on Monday, continuing through to the north on Tuesday.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore this morning.

Friday 22 March

Winds
South to southeasterly below 10 knots becoming east to northeasterly in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm inshore in the afternoon.

Saturday 23 March

Winds
North to northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots during the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.

Smooth but tiny this morning

Posted on March 20th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Light NW breezes for the early high tide session this morning. Sadly, the already marginal conditions look to have slipped backward. The MHL buoy was detecting just under a metre of 15-second energy from the SSE. It could be that I grabbed the picture between sets, but the fact that there were only two or three people in the water at the Dee Why end supports my view that it’s clean but nearly flat. Tide hits a swampy 1.95 high at 0830, so that’s not too helpful either.

This morning’s swell models haven’t moved off the previous projections, which is to say it looks as though we’re stuck in the small to marginal range until early next week. Today’s predictions from both the ECM and Wavewatch are showing a southerly event mid next week. They’re saying swell could be in the 2-3+ metre range from the south – unfortunately the southerly wind will be going hard on top of it. So, not getting too excited at this point.

Have yourself a top old Wednesday everyone!

Full tide and tiny swell with light wind made for clean but tiny conditions at 0740

 

Weather Situation

A broad trough of low pressure lingers in the western Tasman Sea and directs southerly winds along the coast. Winds tend north to northeasterly later Friday and Saturday as the trough weakens and is replaced by a ridge, extending from a high centre near New Zealand. A trough approaching from the west is expected to cross southern parts of the coast on Sunday, bringing a southerly change.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
Southerly about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Thursday 21 March

Winds
Southerly about 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres inshore during the morning.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning.

Friday 22 March

Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots during the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Smooth, clean and tiny at Dee Why

Posted on March 19th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Clouds piled high above the city

Hello Friends,

Interesting looking skies this morning as Tuesday kicked into gear. Wind was coming lightly from the west at 5 kts as of 0750. The MHL buoy was showing a metre at 8 seconds from the SE and, as you can see from the pics, the 1.9 m high tide at 0740 is swamping out what little energy there is. There were people in the water having a go, but it looked like you’d be doing well to see a waist high face. Maybe as the tide drops…

There’s a 90% chance of showers today, but interestingly, Beachwatch is showing a fair number of spots with reasonable water quality (but not Long Reef, North Curly, Queensie-Bower). The wind will drift around and settle to the SE by the time we get to low tide at 1415.

Outlook for the next week is for conditions according to both the ECM and Wavewatch models (upon which all surf forecasts are based) are both showing a continuation of the current marginal size waves. About the only glimmer of hope is for early next week whe the ECM shows a possible little south pulse. But that’s a long way off in the world of modelling, so we will see…

Have a great Tuesday everyone!

Faint hint of a line up the beach

Very small at the point and along the beach 0740.

Weather Situation

A broad trough of low pressure lies along the New South Wales coast, and is expected to linger in the western Tasman Sea. A low pressure centre embedded within the trough is located along central parts of the coast and is expected to move slowly east over the next day or so, and weaken.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming south to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon then tending east to southeasterly in the late afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
1st Swell
South to southeasterly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Wednesday 20 March

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming southerly 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Winds reaching up to 20 knots inshore during the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Thursday 21 March

Winds
South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending south to southeasterly below 10 knots during the day.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm.

Clean but small for the early

Posted on March 18th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Dropped overnight but clean at 0720

Hello Friends,

Cloudy this morning but there were patches of blue here and there too. Down at the beach the surface conditions were clean for the early thanks to a light WNW breeze. Swell was about a metre out of the east at 8 seconds. It was too small for the point to have attracted any hopefuls. Instead the keen types were up the beach toward No Mans. Tide was a deepish 1.8 m high at 0645, so that was having an effect on the waist-ish high sets. Beachwatch hadn’t updated when I wrote this, but unsurprisingly there were a lot of ‘pollution likely’ warnings south from Newport to Manly. Given the amount of rain yesterday,you’d have to expect water to be suss again today.

Outlook according to the models is for the current energy levels to last through the week. The Wavewatch model is showing a brief excursion into the 12+ sec range from the south tomorrow, but the ECM prediction says ‘nah’ it’ll be like today. We’ll see…

Have yourself a great Monday everyone!

 

Weather Situation

A low pressure system, embedded within a trough near the New South Wales Coast, intensified near the South Coast overnight. This low is forecast to weaken this morning then drift to the north and may lie near central parts of the coast later tonight or during Tuesday. Following this, the trough is expected to linger over the western Tasman Sea for much of the following week.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds
North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to northeasterly in the late afternoon, reaching up to 20 knots inshore in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Tuesday 19 March

Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots inshore early in the morning, becoming variable about 10 knots in the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Wednesday 20 March

Winds
Variable about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm.

Rain lets up and there are clean looking lines at Dee Why

Posted on March 17th, 2019 in Dee Why.

20+ people at the point

Shutdown at Kiddies 1530

Nice looking little peak at Kiddies 1530


 

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