Archive for August 2019

Grey skies and solid swell for the keen

Posted on August 23rd, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Still heaps of raw looking swell this morning, but very few people in the water as of 0800. Swell angle/period/tide not perfectly tuned for Dee Why point but that said, as the pictures show, there were still well overhead wave faces on the bigger ones. From the beach to Longy was just too chaotic and big to have attracted anyone. Maybe later as the swell fades those spots will start to be more inviting. Wind is set to weaken and drift around to the north this afternoon. And the forecast calls for sunny skies too.
First tide of the daylight hours was a low at 0700. We’re back to a 1.4 metre high at 1330.
As for the outlook, well the Goat has done his thing
Have a great Friday!

SUP pilot heads out for a closer look at Fishermans 0800

Near the lifeguard hut, Longy, a plausible section rolls through

Too lumpy for Long Reef bombies

Sizable sets still in the mix at Dee Why 0800

Has all the swell rearranged the banks at Dee Why?

The point with only 6 in the water (compared to 30 yesterday)

Point set

South Narrabeen

South of the Gardens

Yeah, naw for Northy and Gardens

Weather Situation
A high pressure system is drifting over southeast Australia in the wake of a series of cold fronts, and is expected to reach the Tasman Sea tonight. This will result in southerly winds easing then shifting northerly along most of the New South Wales coast during the next day or so, while a large and powerful swell gradually eases. The next cold front is set to bring a southerly change to southern and central parts during Sunday, continuing to the north on Monday.

Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the afternoon then northerly 15 to 20 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre around midday.
Swell
Southerly 4 to 6 metres, decreasing to 3 to 4 metres around midday.
Weather
Cloud clearing.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Saturday 24 August
Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching 25 knots offshore during the morning.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Sunny.

Sunday 25 August
Winds
West to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots shifting southerly during the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on August 22nd, 2019 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 22 August 2019: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Big waves today…

The offshore MHL buoy late today was showing 6 metres to off-the-scale-for-max-height (9+m), at 8-12 seconds. The S wind was blowing 50-60kph and the wind chill brought the temp down to 4 degrees.

The swell is from dead South (186 degrees – what’s dead South kids??), which means it’s “only” the side ripples that are coming onto Sydney beaches in sets.. But they are still large enough. I’d say 3-3+ metres on the sets…closing out across the bay in some big wave locations. At other places it might have looked ok for a challenge after school at first sight…

But kids.. Trust Uncle TG… Surf like this, in these conditions, is not to be messed around with.

If you’re caught out there on your own and an accident happens (and they do).. you are literally on your own.  Unlike the Big Wave contests you see on whatever you watch, there is no rescue service just hanging around waiting to go and get you if you get into trouble.

Think about it….

Anyhoo… Tomorrow should be bigger than today, then easing back gradually as the Low moves further away to NZ, with a few ups and downs till later in the week when it looks like coming up again…

Friday: let’s call it 4 metres, easing back to 3-4 metres at places that can get swell from dead South

Saturday: say around 2 metres on the sets at dead South spots

Sunday: around 1-1+ metres dead South at first then coming up briefly

Monday: then back down again in the 1-2 metre range South

Tuesday: around 1 metre or so South

Wednesday: let’s say Ditto

Thursday: looks like coming up again, around 2-3 metres at dead South places.

Stay safe.

TG

I’ll be going away for a little while but will try to post from time to time. Miss you already… 🙂

Up in the Air

The Low is moving away pretty quickly~~~~~~~~~~~~

MSLP Analysis for Thu Aug 22 06:00:00 2019 AUTC

How artistic is that brush stroke eh>>>

… “Mother Nature is a natural artist!” (c with circle, TG 2019…haha)

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Aug 22 06:30:00 2019

Winds

Yes…but easing off and changing direction, again and again

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8

Down in the Sea

Water temp is starting to get chilly at around 17

image

Tides

Click to access tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Windy.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly clear. Winds southerly 35 to 50 km/h decreasing to 20 to 30 km/h in the late evening.

Large and powerful surf conditions in the afternoon and evening are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Sun protection recommended from 10:10 am to 1:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

Friday 23 August

Summary
Min 7
Max 19
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Areas of morning frost in the outer west. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light early in the morning then becoming northerly 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon.

Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Sun protection recommended from 9:50 am to 2:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Mostly sunny. Sydney 7 19
Sunny. Penrith 2 21
Sunny. Liverpool 2 20
Sunny. Terrey Hills 6 17
Sunny. Richmond 0 21
Sunny. Parramatta 3 19
Sunny. Campbelltown 0 20
Mostly sunny. Bondi 9 17

Saturday 24 August

Summary
Min 8
Max 25
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Areas of morning frost in the outer west. Light winds becoming northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:50 am to 2:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

Sunday 25 August

Summary
Min 9
Max 21
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.2 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny morning. Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:50 am to 1:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

Monday 26 August

Summary
Min 11
Max 18
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Tuesday 27 August

Summary
Min 11
Max 18
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. Light winds.

Wednesday 28 August

Summary
Min 10
Max 20
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower, most likely during the morning. Light winds becoming west to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Thursday 29 August

Summary
Min 10
Max 19
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning southeasterly during the day.


What a pretty scene

Posted on August 22nd, 2019 in Surf Reports.

Big waves today

Posted on August 22nd, 2019 in Surf Reports.

Hey kids…this ain’t cool for after school…
Big waves, waves building further out, wind chill down to 4 degrees, 50-60k
S wind ..and you’re on your own.

Literally.

Get into trouble..bomb set winds you, your legrope snaps, you’re tired,
your board hits you…these things happen, only you don’t know that…

No rescue service is just hanging around waiting to risk their necks to go
and get you.

Think about it….


Energy building this morning

Posted on August 22nd, 2019 in Dee Why.

Bodysurfer slotted

Watching the crew at Dee Why point at 0900. Sets are overhead but not unusually big or anything. Wind is gusting into the 20+ kt range. Will hang out here to watch and snap, so more pics in due course.


Queenscliff beautiful shutdowns rule

Posted on August 22nd, 2019 in Manly.

Waiting for the swell to really kick in. Every now and then something rears up briefly on the zombie but am yet to see one even feather. Meanwhile there are some photogenic moments along the beach as head plus sets stand up and throw before closing out…

Wonder if Deadies will light up soon

He made it for another couple seconds

Pretty shorey


North of Mona……..

Posted on August 22nd, 2019 in Surf Reports.

Coming up but pretty straight…..

{CAPTION}

Sent from my iPhone


Swell early, but lots more by lunchtime

Posted on August 22nd, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Swell should build dramatically. I haven’t had time to take a picture yet, but sets at exposed spots are solidly head to head and a bit this morning. Swell was SSE 2.8 metres at close to 14 seconds as of 0500 at the Sydney MHL buoy. As of 0700 the wind at North Head was still westerly at 10-13 kts – but the Bureau has a gale warning up, so the wind’s going to swing SW soon as it heads toward the 25-35 kt zone. First tide of the day was a low at 0615 and we’re currently heading toward a 1.4 m high at 1240 – by which time the swell should be rumbling as it builds to peak intensity this afternoon.

I will be out and about with the camera soon, so expect a piccie or two as the morning progresses. Meanwhile, here’s a shot from yesterday afternoon at the point…

.

Weather Situation

A strong high pressure system is centred over the Bight while a series of cold fronts skim across southeast Australia, associated with a deep low to the south. This pattern is bringing vigorous winds and powerful swells to the New South Wales coast, with the worst of the conditions expected in most coastal areas later today. The last of the fronts will clear the region tonight, after which the high will drift across from the west. Winds will ease heading into Friday, although the swell will linger into the weekend.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Gale Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Westerly 20 to 30 knots turning south to southwesterly 25 to 35 knots in the morning, reaching 40 knots offshore.
Seas
.2 to 3 metres, increasing to 3 to 5 metres during the day.
Swell
Southerly 3 to 5 metres, increasing to 6 to 8 metres around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Friday 23 August

Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching 30 knots offshore at first, becoming variable about 10 knots in the afternoon then northerly 15 to 20 knots in the evening.
Seas
2.5 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning, then decreasing to 1 metre around midday.
Swell
Southerly 4 to 6 metres, decreasing to 3 to 4 metres around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Saturday 24 August

Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots turning westerly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Sunny.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing

Little lines for the early

Posted on August 21st, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

There were half a dozen in the water at the point a little before 0700 this morning. Every now and then a little waist and a bit high line would turn up, but there was no obvious sign of the anticipated big swell. The MHL buoy was showing a little over a metre of 10-second SSE (169°) swell as of 0500.

Wind was WNW at 10-17 kts as of report time, but it, like the swell is expected to come up significantly over the next 24 hours. Tide was low at 0535 and will be back to high a little before noon. Beachwatch says the ocean’s 17C along the Northern Beaches.

Outlook is for the wind to hit 25-30 kts from the west later today, but tomorrow when the swell blows up there’s a gale warning for W-SW 25-40 kts.

As you can see below, the Bureau is telling us we can expect 6-7 metres (!!) by noon tomorrow and it’ll still be in the 5-7 metre range on Friday morning. Apart from Collaroy or the Bower, I’m not sure there’ll be anywhere for ordinary surfers to take part. Here’s hoping the coastal infrastructure rides it out okay. It’s hard to believe there won’t be some pretty noticable impacts on the beaches and dunes. At least they’re fairly wide at the moment.

I’m planning to be out and about with the camera to document the events, so check in for piccies over the next couple of days.

Go well and stay safe!

 

Small line up toward No Mans around 0700

About the same size as yesterday morning – but it should be bigger this afternoon…

Weather Situation
A strong high pressure system lies near the Bight while a number of fronts, moving across the Southern Ocean, approach New South Wales waters over the coming days. The first of these fronts will clip southern waters this morning, with a second stronger front moving along the entire New South Wales coast on Thursday. These systems will bring periods of vigorous winds until Friday accompanied by very powerful swells.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Westerly 25 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres by early evening.
Weather
Sunny.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions in the afternoon and evening are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Thursday 22 August
Gale Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast
Winds
West to southwesterly 25 to 40 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, increasing to 3 to 4 metres around midday.
Swell
Southerly 3 to 4 metres, increasing to 6 to 7 metres around midday.

Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers in the morning.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Friday 23 August
Winds
Southwesterly 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 10 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Southerly 5 to 7 metres, decreasing to 3 to 5 metres during the morning.

Weather
Partly cloudy.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.


Tiny Tuesday morning but Thursday looking interesting

Posted on August 20th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Another breezy and chilly day coming up with only a hint of a south line showing at Dee Why as of 0730. There is some dead south swell according to the MHL buoy but while it’s around the 1.5 metre mark at sea, the period is a touch under 8 seconds, so even exposed spots will be struggling to be much above waist high this morning. Tide was low at 0500 and will be back to a 1.4m high at 1115. The tidal push may help the swell a bit, but with 15-20 kts of SW wind expected, I’m not overly hopeful of anything much in the way of an improvement.

Tomorrow may or may not see an uptick in swell. The ECM model shows swell staying at about the same or even slightly smaller size and period across the day, while the Wavewatch model reckons size could come up a touch and the period could move out to 12 seconds.

But on Thursday Huey looks like getting off his backside in a big way. Wavewatch says dead south 3.4 metres at 14 seconds for the early, while ECM says naw, only 1.7 m at 12 seconds from the south. By midnight both are predicting 4+ metres. The Bureau says 4-5 m in the morning Wednesday, increasing to 5-7 m in the afternoon. Ulp. Wind is set to be powering along at 20-30kts from the west early, then swinging SW and stepping up into the 30-40 kt range during the morning. So, challenging conditions that pretty obviously are only for the most experienced and fittest riders. The rest of us can watch.

Friday both the ECM and Wavewatch are saying it’ll still be 4+ metres at 12-13 sec (having peaked overnight) and that it’ll be closer to 3 m by dark. Wind could be SW early but then fading during the morning and coming around to NE later. Saturday morning the call is for S-SE swell 2 metres at 11-12 sec with 8-10 kts of NW early, going west and maybe around to the east, but light for the afternoon.

So, rather interesting outlook.

Have a great Tuesday everyone!

 

Teaser set 0720

Weather Situation
A strong high pressure system lies near the Bight while a number of fronts moving across the Southern Ocean will approach New South Wales waters over the coming days. The first of these fronts will clip southern waters Wednesday morning, with a second stronger front moving along the entire New South Wales coast on Thursday. These systems will bring periods of vigorous winds, and from Wednesday to Friday, very powerful swell.

 

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
West to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore early in the morning and again in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres offshore.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Sunny.
Wednesday 21 August
Strong Wind Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Westerly 25 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Sunny.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions in the afternoon and evening are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Thursday 22 August
Winds
Westerly 20 to 30 knots turning south to southwesterly 30 to 40 knots during the morning.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, increasing to 3 to 4 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 4 to 5 metres, increasing to 5 to 7 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.