Archive for September 2019

Postcard from France

Posted on September 30th, 2019 in At large.

Our correspondent reports from France…

A nice swell has coincided with our arrival today for three weeks of surfing and wine drinking in the Basque region of France.

The view from our digs at Parliamentia surf spot, Guethary, France……

Going off on the coast of France!

Plenty of water moving around….


Not so manic Monday

Posted on September 30th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Sorry, but if you wanted to go for a surf this morning, I’m afraid you’re pretty much out of luck. As the picture shows, there’s only an ankle to maybe calf-high line dribbling into the beach at Dee Why. The faint south swell is only 7 seconds apart and a metre out at sea. The Bureau expects it to build offshore during the morning but I think it’s highly unlikely to improve dramatically. In fact, since the SE wind is set to pick up at the same time, you’re safe to write it off today.
Outlook for the rest of the week is so-so. The ECM model shows only small and sub-10 sec period swell through to the weekend, Wavewatch is a little more hopeful, but not by much.
Have a great Monday!

Tiny and weak looking at Dee Why 0645

Weather Situation
A high pressure system near the Bight is pushing a ridge along the coast. The high will gradually drift across southeast Australia to reach the Tasman Sea on Tuesday, then it will become slow-moving.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
South to southeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots about the midday.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 2 metres offshore during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 50% chance of showers.
Tuesday 1 October
Winds
East to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending north to northeasterly in the late morning and afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Wednesday 2 October
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Weather
Sunny


Everybody in

Posted on September 29th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Longy carpark was just about full when I rolled in for a look at the waves around 0745. Naturally enough the water was pretty crowded. Wave faces were in the knee to maybe chest high range but they looked pretty soft – a combination no doubt of the 0825 high tide and the 10 second 1.7 metre SSE (165°) swell. Wind was a light westerly under partly cloudy skies. Wave size looked to be fairly uniform from Dee Why to the Bombies, so it’s a case of pick the group of mates you want to surf with and get out there for a party wave or two. Had a quick glance at the Collaroy-Narrabeen stretch on the way home and can report there were little waves here and there from Gardens up to Northy (where the crowd was impressive). So, you won’t get a lonely surf session this morning, but it should be possible to get a little something if you get in before the swell fades out and the wind gets around to the E-NE around lunch time.
Outlook for the coming week remains so-so. There should be little dribblers at south magnets now and again, but I’m not seeing anything too exciting for the coming week.
Have a great Sunday everyone!
 

Soft peaks at the bomibies

Very busy at Longy before 0800

Busy at Dee Why too

New Holland Honeyeater (Phylidonyris novahollandiae), Long Reef

Checking the drumlines…

Checking it out

South Narrabeen producing cute knee high waves

Lotsa folks in the water at North Narrabeen

Weather Situation
A high pressure system near the Bight is pushing a ridge along the coast, whilst a cold front to the south is expected to clip the far southern waters later today. Following this, the high will gradually drift across southeast Australia to reach the Tasman Sea on Tuesday, when it will become slow-moving.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming easterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon then tending southeasterly in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Monday 30 September
Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning. Winds tending southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers in the morning.
Tuesday 1 October
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon then tending northerly during the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Only just barely there surfwise

Posted on September 28th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Southerly arrived right around dawn and by 0630 it was pushing along at 20-25 kts. Swell period out at sea was still in the 11-second range and coming from the SSE, but it’s dropped to a metre from yesterday’s 1.5 m.

As you can see from the pics, the conditions were less than appetizing. The Collaroy-Narrabeen stretch was basically flat this morning. Kitesurfers were having a great time at Long Reef, while down at Kiddies, the super keen Saturday dawn patrol was messing about in the weak, choppy knee to thigh high dribble.

Whle there is a slight chance that the swell will perk slightly during the day, the outlook for the front half of the week is not too exciting. Right now it looks like being flat to near flat most places and only marginal at south magnets. Spring has sprung.

BTW, first tide of the day is a high at 0740. Weather should be mostly sunny, with a high of 18. Ocean temperature is about 17C.

Have a great day everybody!

The ideal equipment for the day

Kiddies action at 0645

Microscopic dribble at south Narra

North Narrabeen not happening at all

Weather Situation
A vigorous southerly change associated with a cold front has moved along southern and central parts of the coast overnight. Winds are expected to ease somewhat today as the change reaches the northern coast this afternoon and evening. Another cold front looks set to pass to the south on Sunday, after which a high pressure system over the Bight is forecast to push a ridge over southeast Australia early in the new week.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots in the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 2.5 to 3 metres by evening.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Sunday 29 September
Winds
South to southeasterly about 10 knots becoming variable in the morning, then northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Winds tending east to southeasterly in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres in the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Monday 30 September
Winds
Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning southerly 15 to 20 knots during the morning.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy.


Friday morning waves

Posted on September 27th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Happily surprised to see we still had waves when I climbed up to the RealSurf crowsnest for a look at conditions. Plenty of folk in the water chasing waist high sets along the beach and knee to maybe waist at the point. Skies were very hazy and wind was coming from the WNW at about 6-7 kts. The Sydney MHL buoy was seeing 1.8 seconds of 12-second SSE swell – which is at the high end of yesterday morning’s modelling. Tide was high at 0650 and is dropping to the low at 1240. Water quality should be good and Beachwatch says the ocean temp is 18C.
Might be worth a splash at your fave south swell magnet.
As for the week ahead, well, the amazingly reliable Goat has crafted his usual analysis of our prospects.
Have a great Friday!

 

Well attended at the beach 0700

Just barely catchable at the point


 
Weather Situation
A high pressure system over southeast Australia is shifting to the Tasman Sea, while a cold front approaches New South Wales from the west. This front will skim across southern New South Wales later today, with an associated southerly change pushing northwards along the coast tonight and Saturday. Another cold front looks set to pass to the south on Sunday, after which a new high is forecast to push a ridge over southeast Australia early in the new week.

Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northerly 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Saturday 28 September
Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 25 knots shifting southerly 20 to 30 knots before dawn. Winds easing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon then becoming variable about 10 knots in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing to 1 metre at night.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Sunday 29 September
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming north to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots during the morning then shifting southerly during the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres during the evening.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on September 26th, 2019 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf Forecast issued Thursday 26 September 2019:

Seven day outlook for Sydney:

There were waves late today, around 2ish metres on the sets from the South East..

Good for those that like dull overcast afternoons with a cool wind, choppy sea surface, water that’s not warm enough to entice me… but are keen to get wet, or just don’t know any better yet, or just want to let off steam, use up some energy, etc…Well, Good luck to them.

The surf outlook for the start of the school hols, and the start of the Flags going up, is for moderate waves of some sorts all week at places open to the South… and not very much happening at other places.

Friday: easing back from today, say 1-1+ South East

Saturday: not much happening at first but might start to come up a bit later at places open to the South

Sunday: then ease back to somewhere in the 1-2 metre range at dead South places

Monday: around 1ish metres at spots that get anything from dead South

Tuesday: up a little in the 1-2 metre range dead South

Wednesday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range dead South

Thursday: and a ditto.

TG

Up in the Air

MSLP Analysis for Thu Sep 26 06:00:00 2019 AUTC

 

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Sep 26 07:30:00 2019

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8,i:pressure,m:cIJaknc

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 18

The ocean is hot up north towards the equator, and cold down south towards Antarctica, and not warm enough for me in the middle.

image

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Winds easterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 2:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 6 [High]

Friday 27 September

Summary
Min 13
Max 25
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Areas of morning fog, then mostly sunny. Light winds becoming westerly 20 to 30 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the evening.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 2:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 6 [High]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Sunny. Sydney 13 25
Morning fog. Penrith 9 28
Mostly sunny. Liverpool 10 27
Sunny. Terrey Hills 12 24
Morning fog. Richmond 8 28
Sunny. Parramatta 10 27
Morning fog. Campbelltown 9 27
Sunny. Bondi 13 23

Saturday 28 September

Summary
Min 14
Max 19
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds southerly 20 to 30 km/h tending southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 2:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 6 [High]

Sunday 29 September

Summary
Min 11
Max 22
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming west to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then turning southerly during the afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 2:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 6 [High]

Monday 30 September

Summary
Min 13
Max 19
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning then becoming light during the evening.

Tuesday 1 October

Summary
Min 13
Max 21
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 2 October

Summary
Min 13
Max 25
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming northeast to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Thursday 3 October

Summary
Min 16
Max 22
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


Little lines for the crew

Posted on September 26th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Looks like little knee high wavelets for the keen before work/school crew. Thursday kicked off with mainly clear skies and a light easterly fanning what is a 10-sec 1.5 metre SSE swell out at sea. Tide was high at 0600 and will hit low at 1145. From the look of the marine forecast, the clean early conditions aren’t going to last beyond late morning.
The Goat should be along with his weekly outlook later today, so check back toward dusk to see what he has to say.
Have a great Thursday!

Little line up the beach toward No Mans

The crew chasing knee high waves at 0650

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over western New South Wales is weakening as a cold front approaches from the Southern Ocean, while a new high builds over the Tasman Sea. Between these highs, a trough extends from Queensland into northeast New South Wales. The approaching cold front will skim across the state’s south during Friday, with an associated southerly change pushing northwards along the coast on Saturday. Another cold front looks set to pass to the south on Sunday, after which a new high is forecast to push a ridge over southeast Australia.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds
East to northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Friday 27 September
Winds
East to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots early in the morning then becoming north to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
The chance of a thunderstorm offshore in the morning. Sunny day.
Saturday 28 September
Winds
Northwesterly 10 to 15 knots shifting southerly 15 to 20 knots during the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Little bumps on tap at Dee Why

Posted on September 25th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Light westerly blowing at 0700 when I grabbed this morning’s snaps. Skies were sunny and as predicted yesterday, the surf energy has come up a little. Although I saw what looked to be a possibly briefly rideable bump at the point, it seems the best possibilities are along the beach. The MHL buoy was seeing a metre of 10-second SSE swell at 0500. If you figure on not very energetic ankle to knee high wave faces on sets, you should have expectations well aligned with conditions. Wind should be variably onshore across the day. Our next tide is a low at 1045. Water is around the 17C mark.

The Wavewatch model was closer than the ECM yesterday. It’s predicting the current energy level to persist through tomorrow afternoon and possibly even picking up a little overnight. The ECM says nah, it’ll be flat. The Bureau leans more toward Wavewatch in terms of its predictions for the next 24 hours, so that’s a bit hopeful.

Have a great Wednesday everyone!

 

Little peak gets caught at Kiddies 0700

Briefly plausible line at the point (a second later it disappeared)

Weather Situation
A high pressure system centred near Adelaide will move east today, reaching the western Tasman Sea on Thursday. The next cold front is expect to reach the south coast later on Friday and the north coast on Saturday.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon then decreasing to about 10 knots in the late evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Thursday 26 September
Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending northerly in the late evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.
Friday 27 September
Winds
North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending west to northwesterly during the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning. Sunny day.


Sunny day but near flat

Posted on September 24th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Sunny skies from the get-go and light offshore wind too. But surf… no dice. As of 0600 the MHL buoy was detecting only a metre of 9 second energy from the SSE (152-166°) and as the picture shows, that meant knee high at best along the beach at Dee Why. Water quality is rated ‘pollution unlikely’ at all of Sydney’s beaches and according to Beachwatch, temp is 17C.

The ECM model is showing the microness continuing for the next week at least. Wavewatch is more hopeful, predicting instead a little uptick from the south (1.4 metres at 9 seconds by noon) and picking up a little overnight into Thursday when it shows the period stretching out to 12 seconds. Better than that, it also shows energy pulsing on Saturday (south 2.3 m at 10 seconds). So here’s hoping the dour ECM outlook isn’t right.

Have a great day everyone!

ps: I joined 80,000 others at the Domain last Friday for the climate strike and took a few pictures

You thought yesterday morning was small…

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Bight will slowly move east over the next few days, reaching the western Tasman Sea on Thursday. The next cold front is expect to reach the south coast later on Friday and the north coast on Saturday.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
South to southwesterly about 10 knots becoming east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon then decreasing to about 10 knots in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the day.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Wednesday 25 September
Winds
East to northeasterly about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Thursday 26 September
Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the evening.


Pretty but tiny Monday morning

Posted on September 23rd, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Stunner of a morning, but it looks like you’d be doing well to catch something with a thigh-high wave face. The point might possibly work (on the bomb sets) if you have a rescue board or something similar. But really, for all practical purposes, it’s flat. If you’re really hanging out to get wet, I’d be checking up toward Longy or around at Curly on the off chance. The Sydney MHL buoy was seeing 1.1 metres of 7-second dribble the SE as of 0600. Wind was out of the west at 6-7 kts around 0740.

Weather call is for partly cloudy and a high of 22 along the coast. Ocean is still on the cool side at 17C but water’s clean.

Both the Wavewatch and ECMWF WAF models are showing tiny conditions today and tomorrow, but while the latter isn’t predicting anything exciting, Wavewatch shows a little south influx of 1.3 metre, 9 second stuff (waist plusses at good exposures). But apart from that, the long range outlook is a very Spring like, ie weak and tiny dribble in the ankle to knee high range.

Have a top old Monday everyone!

Monday 0730 – too small to surf at the point, maybe knee high along the beach

Sydney Coastal Waters Forecast: Broken Bay to Port Hacking
View the current warnings for New South Wales

Forecast issued at 4:10 am EST on Monday 23 September 2019.

Weather Situation
A southerly change that reached the Macquarie Waters overnight will continue moving north today, reaching the Far North Waters this evening. Meanwhile, fresh and gusty west to southwesterly winds will affect southern parts of the coast today as a cold front clips the state’s southeast. A high pressure system is then set to become predominant over the region Tuesday onwards.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres by early evening.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Tuesday 24 September
Winds
South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Wednesday 25 September
Winds
West to southwesterly below 10 knots becoming south to southeasterly during the morning.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Mostly sunny.