Archive for October 2019

Not too surfable looking this morning

Posted on October 24th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Heavy cloud around when I grabbed the pics this morning, but as I write this it already seems to be lifting. However, whether monochromatic or colourful, the lack of surf situation is what it is. There seemed to be a couple of people in the water just north of Kiddies, but as you can see, there’s no real line and surface conditions were already textured by the light SW breeze. The 0500 MHL data showed a touch over a metre of 6-sec chop from the SE. I’ll be on my bike for today’s exercise.

The Goat should be along later with thoughts about our prospects, I’m hoping he’ll spot something of interest that I’ve missed in this morning’s modelling.

Have a top old day everyone and check back this afternoon for week ahead forecast.

Hopefuls at Kiddies

Nothing for you at the point 0720

South end of No Mans looks good for boating

Weather Situation
A high pressure system centred over the western Tasman sea is directing north to northeasterly winds across the New South Wales coastal waters. Winds will strengthen and turn more northerly on Friday ahead of a cold front, which will bring a southerly change into the southern coastal waters late Friday and early Saturday.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots, tending northerly offshore at first. Winds becoming east to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon then turning north to northeasterly in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Friday 25 October
Winds
North to northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Winds reaching up to 25 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres around midday.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny day. The chance of a thunderstorm at night.


Really tiny

Posted on October 23rd, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

There were chest high plus sets yesterday morning at Dee Why, but they’re gone today. At best it’s maybe knee high at the south end and possibly waist up the beach. Surface had a little texture thanks to a light ENE breeze. Interestingly the swell data coming from the MHL buoy at 0500 isn’t much different from yesterday morning. Swell out at sea was 1.5 metres SSE at 12 seconds, so the puny conditions are curious. Given the swell direction, I’d expect it to be a little bigger up at the Long Reef end of the beach. Tide is dropping to the low at 1020. By the time it bottoms out, the wind should be building up into the 15-20 kt range from the N-NE. So, north corners are the go for any hope of a wave.

Outlook is for marginal to flat for the rest of the work week, but according to this morning’s run of the models, there could be a boost in size on Saturday…

Guess we’ll see!

 

No waves at the point 0700

Tiny at Kiddies

Knee to maybe waist at No Mans 0700

Weather Situation
A high pressure system centred over the western Tasman sea is directing north to northeasterly winds across the New South Wales coastal waters. Winds will strengthen and turn more northerly on Friday ahead of a cold front, which will bring a southerly change into the southern coastal waters early Saturday.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
East to northeasterly about 10 knots tending north to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the morning.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloud clearing.
Thursday 24 October
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots. A 10 to 15 knot west to southwesterly change moving through in the late morning. Winds returning to north to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Friday 25 October
Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots tending north to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots during the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny day. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.


Whadya know still some waves this morning

Posted on October 22nd, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

I’d expected it to be really tiny this morning to be honest, but happily there are still some waist plus sets (maybe even shoulder plus on the bombs) on offer. At 0715 there were a fair number of people in the water at the point as well as a scattering of plucky types along the beach.  Surface conditions had a little texture thanks to a light NW breeze. Tide hits low at 0900 and will be back to high at 1535. The MHL buoy was seeing 1.5 metres of 13 seconds from the SSE (156°) as of 0500.
The Bureau says the wind will swing through the north to the NE as the day goes along, so the bumpy conditions at the point will not improve. On the other hand the swell is supposed to pick up, so if you have to go this afternoon, head for the north ends.
Weather should be sunny with a high of 24C and water’s on 19 according to Beachwatch.
The swell models are pointing toward tiny to flat over the next week, but given that they’ve undercalled the energy of the last couple of days, maybe they’ll be proven pessimistic again.
Have yourself a great Tuesday and get wet if you can!

 

Sets at the point are definitely surfable

Shutdowns the go up the beach

Bomb set for the crowd at 0715

Weather Situation
Winds will tend easterly on Tuesday and northerly around the middle of the week as a high pressure system becomes established over the Tasman Sea. A cold front will bring a southerly change to the south on Friday.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Winds
Northerly 10 to 15 knots turning northeasterly in the early afternoon. Winds reaching up to 20 knots inshore in the late afternoon.
Seas
Below 0.5 metres, increasing to around 1 metre around midday.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Wednesday 23 October
Winds
North to northeasterly about 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Thursday 24 October
Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots during the morning then becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.


Postcard from Guethary

Posted on October 21st, 2019 in At large.

Today we leave Guethary after a wonderful swell filled 3 week stay.  It is raining and onshore today (which makes leaving this lovely part of the world a little easier).     This photo was taken from Guethary train station a few days ago.  It shows the left hander Les Alcyons breaking nicely with only a few out.   Not many railway platforms around the world have a better view than this!

Nice view!


Clean and small Monday morning

Posted on October 21st, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Nice looking start for Monday morning at Dee Why. Nothing too big at the beach or point, but the knee to waist plus faces on offer are definitely surfable. Weather was partly cloudy early with about 5 kts of westerly breeze. Out at sea a couple of hours before I took the pictures, the MHL buoy was seeing 1.9 metres of 10 sec SSE energy. Low tide was at 0750 and is now coming into the high at 1425. Water is 19C and today should get to 23 under sunny skies.

From the shape of the swell forecast models this morning, it looks as though this morning could be as good as it gets for the next week. So might be a plan to hit it if you can. Wavewatch is a little more hopeful than the ECM prediction, but both are calling for short period and less than a metre through next Monday – at least.

Have a good one everybody!

Quick little opportunities in the shories

Little set at the point 0720

Weather Situation
Southerly winds are forecast to ease as a ridge of high pressure extends from the west. Winds will tend northerly from mid-week ahead of the next southerly change in the south on Friday.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
South to southwesterly about 10 knots becoming east to southeasterly in the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore during the morning.
Weather
Sunny.
Tuesday 22 October
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon then decreasing to about 10 knots in the late evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Wednesday 23 October
Winds
North to northeasterly below 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots during the morning.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the evening.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Mostly sunny.


Yay there are little waves for Sunday morning

Posted on October 20th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Well, how ’bout that? Yesterday the swell started out just barely surfable in the morning and then faded out to near flat at most places in the afternoon. But overnight, it’s come back up again and this morning sees 2 metres at 8 seconds from the SSE (158°) as of 0600 at the MHL buoy. Around 0830 when I grabbed the snaps, Dee Why looked to be in the waist and a bit range on sets. The lines were close together and the point didn’t seem to be doing much (despite the crowd) but the wind was WSW and light under the clear blue skies. The Bureau says the wind will get around to light onshore by midday, but they’re also calling for the swell to be in the 2 metre range offshore too.
Tide was low at 0645 and will be back to high at 1330.
Outlook is for generally small to tiny conditions across the coming week as the south swell stays around the metre mark give or take and the average period bumbles around at or below 10 seconds. Water should stay around the current 19C.
Have a great day and if you go for a wave, take your sunny attitude ’cause it won’t be uncrowded on any of the functioning peaks.

Lines coming into No Mans, 0830

Kiddies corner wavelet

Lotta folks in the water at the point, being hopeful

Weather Situation
Southerly winds are forecast to ease early this week as a ridge of high pressure extends from the west. Winds will tend northerly during the latter half of the week.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Winds
South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots turning southeasterly below 10 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Monday 21 October
Winds
Southeasterly below 10 knots becoming north to northwesterly in the morning then becoming east to northeasterly in the early afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres offshore during the morning.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Tuesday 22 October
Winds
Variable about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Please be aware
Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum waves can be twice the forecast height.
Nearby Coastal Waters


Postcard from Mundaka

Posted on October 19th, 2019 in At large.

Swell was up again so we drove down south into Spain to the legendary river mouth town of Mundaka.  The famous left hander was ‘cooking’ when we arrived  at low tide (which is prime time).

Nice and simple paddle out from the harbour at Mundaka.   Catching a set wave not so easy however with 80 plus surfers in the water.  Still a couple from our group managed to jag a few.

Mundaka firing today


Little waves for Saturday morning

Posted on October 19th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Swell faded pretty dramatically overnight, but there are still little knee to waist high bumps at magnet spots. Surface conditions were perfect as the day got started with only a faint NW breeze wafting across the shore and out to sea. We’re currently coming off the low tide at 0600 and heading to a 1.6 m high at 1230. Should be a sunny all day as we build to a high of 28. Water’s clean and 18C. Swell’s about a metre at sea and coming from the east at 9 seconds or so.

Wind is expected to pick up from the NW before fading this afternoon and swinging strong SW later.

Outlook is for conditions to remain marginal – but with luck not utterly flat – through the coming week. Figure on knee to waist with the odd bigger one. Mornings, as usual will be best.

Have a top old Saturday!

South Narra too tiny

North Narra crew on the knee to waist high waves

Long Reef

Long Reef

Tropical frame of rider at Butterbox

Peaceful scene in the heart off Dee Why

Kiddies at 0630

Too tiny for the point

No Mans peak

Weather Situation
Northerly winds will be replaced by a vigorous south to southwesterly change, courtesy of a cold front, over the southern and central waters today and northern waters early Sunday. Winds are forecast to ease early next week as a ridge of high pressure extends from the west and the front moves further east away from the New South Wales coast.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the early afternoon then becoming southwesterly 20 to 30 knots in the early evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny day. The chance of a thunderstorm late this afternoon and evening.
Sunday 20 October
Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 25 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing below 1 metre around midday.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Monday 21 October
Winds
Variable below 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Energy and sunny skies for Friday morning

Posted on October 18th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Late yesterday afternoon I spent half an hour shooting waves at Northy until the sun got too low. Sets were into the head high range and the crowd of 20 plus were having to deal with fierce offshore wind. But if you could get through the fire hose in the face take offs, there were some nice looking waves to be had. I wondered if it’d stick around overnight and as the pictures show, it most definitely has.

We have a mix of NE and SSE swell for Friday morning. The main energy is coming from the south. Offshore at 0500 it was 2 metres at 9 seconds. Wind at report writing time was WSW 9-12 kts. It should slack off a little as the day goes along. Next tide is a high at 1145.

As for the outlook, well, the Goat has done his thing just in time for the weekend.

Set at No Mans 0735

No Mans

The point seems to be smaller and less consistent than the beach

Nice looking left at No Mans

Last night at North Narrabeen

Weather Situation

A high pressure system will continue to strengthen over the north of the state, bringing light east to southeasterly winds in the northern parts and freshening northerly winds about the south. The next cold front will move through on Saturday, bringing another southerly change to the southern coast.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the middle of the day then becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning, then increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Saturday 19 October

Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast

Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the middle of the day then becoming southwesterly 15 to 25 knots in the evening. Winds reaching up to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing to 1 metre around midday.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Sunny day. The chance of a thunderstorm in the late afternoon and evening.

Sunday 20 October

Winds
Southwesterly 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots during the morning then turning south to southeasterly below 10 knots during the day.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Northeast to southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

 


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on October 17th, 2019 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 17 October 2019: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

At last, a touch of Summerish weather, warm, sunny, bit windy ! but not humid… maybe the waves could be better, but better than nothing.

The outlook is as follows… just a quickie for you…

Friday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range at places that are open to dead South swell, then easing back

Saturday: around 1ish metres from dead South

Sunday: ditto

Monday: ditto

Tuesday: ditto

Wednesday: ditto

Thursday: dittoish and Eastish

Could be ideal, or could be ordinary, depending on lots of wind variations and the tides.

How’s that for precision.

It’s the ocean, it’s nature, it doesn’t work by precision.  Just embrace the vibe~~~~~~~~~~

TG

Up in the Sky

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Oct 17 06:30:00 2019

MSLP Analysis for Thu Oct 17 06:00:00 2019 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 19… improving, but could do better

image

Tides

Click to access tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

 

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Windy. Clear.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Clear. Winds westerly 30 to 45 km/h decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:20 am to 4:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

Friday 18 October

Summary
Min 12
Max 23
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds west to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the morning then becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the late afternoon.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Sunny. Sydney 12 23
Sunny. Penrith 10 28
Sunny. Liverpool 10 27
Sunny. Terrey Hills 11 22
Sunny. Richmond 9 27
Sunny. Parramatta 10 26
Sunny. Campbelltown 9 27
Sunny. Bondi 13 21

Saturday 19 October

Summary
Min 14
Max 28
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Slight (20%) chance of a shower along the coastal fringe in the late afternoon and evening. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Light winds becoming westerly 25 to 35 km/h in the morning then tending southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

Sunday 20 October

Summary
Min 12
Max 21
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds west to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light during the morning.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

Monday 21 October

Summary
Min 12
Max 22
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Tuesday 22 October

Summary
Min 13
Max 23
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 23 October

Summary
Min 15
Max 23
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Thursday 24 October

Summary
Min 15
Max 29
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.