The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted by: on November 21st, 2019

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 21 November 2019: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Sick of the bushfire smoke here… imagine what it’s like for people up the coast.

Scientific analysis of How Bushfires start in Oz … “The majority of bushfires are started either intentionally or unintentionally by people.”

https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2019-11-20/bushfire-ignition-source-how-we-know/11701132

Being aware of the causes can help reduce the risk of fire in hot dry weather conditions.

In between staying inside out of the smoke to stay healthy, and looking at the surf, there hasn’t been much surf to miss out on.

With more flip flopping wind changes and smoke haze forecast by the Bureau, don’t expect much joy in the days ahead.  At least the water’s getting to a more comfortable temperature for a cool down swim.

Friday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range North East

Saturday: 1 metre or so North East, to be chopped around by Southerly and E/SE onshore wind

Sunday: around 1ish metres East North East then South East, and ditto re wind from S/SE

Monday: around 1 metre Eastish

Tuesday: 1 or 1+ metres North East

And, beyond that I can’t see through the pesky smoke haze at the moment…

Leave you with a couple of thoughts:

“The best surfer out there is the one having the most fun” Phil Edwards.

“Stay cool. Have fun!” TG

Up in the Air

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Nov 21 06:30:00 2019

MSLP Analysis for Thu Nov 21 00:00:00 2019 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8,i:pressure,m:cIJaknc

Down in the Sea

Water temp is improving… currently around 20

image

Tides

Click to access tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Smoke. Windy.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Areas of smoke haze. Winds northeasterly 30 to 45 km/h decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening. A POOR Air Quality Forecast alert is issued by the NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (DPIE) due to elevated PM2.5 levels in Sydney for Thursday, 21st November, 2019.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 4:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Friday 22 November

Summary
Min 20
Max 26
Morning smoke and haze.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Areas of haze and smoke haze in the morning. Slight (20%) chance of a shower in the evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the west in the evening. Winds northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h tending southeasterly 25 to 35 km/h early in the morning then tending southerly 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening. A POOR Air Quality Forecast alert is issued by the NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (DPIE) due to elevated PM10 and PM2.5 levels in Sydney for Friday 22nd November, 2019.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Morning smoke and haze. Sydney 20 26
Morning smoke and haze. Penrith 19 33
Morning smoke and haze. Liverpool 18 29
Morning smoke and haze. Terrey Hills 19 24
Morning smoke and haze. Richmond 19 32
Morning smoke and haze. Parramatta 18 27
Morning smoke and haze. Campbelltown 16 30
Morning smoke and haze. Bondi 20 23

Saturday 23 November

Summary
Min 19
Max 25
Possible late shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Areas of smoke haze in the west in the morning. Medium (40%) chance of showers in the evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the outer west in the afternoon and evening. Winds southerly 15 to 20 km/h turning east to southeasterly in the late morning then becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 3:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

Sunday 24 November

Summary
Min 18
Max 24
Cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower, most likely in the morning. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h tending east to southeasterly during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 4:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Monday 25 November

Summary
Min 19
Max 28
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day then tending northerly during the evening.

Tuesday 26 November

Summary
Min 21
Max 34
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny morning. Medium (40%) chance of showers, most likely later in the day. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h shifting south to southwesterly during the day.

Wednesday 27 November

Summary
Min 16
Max 23
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Winds southerly 15 to 20 km/h turning east to southeasterly during the morning.

Thursday 28 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 27
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

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