Archive for November 2019

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on November 21st, 2019 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 21 November 2019: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Sick of the bushfire smoke here… imagine what it’s like for people up the coast.

Scientific analysis of How Bushfires start in Oz … “The majority of bushfires are started either intentionally or unintentionally by people.”

https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2019-11-20/bushfire-ignition-source-how-we-know/11701132

Being aware of the causes can help reduce the risk of fire in hot dry weather conditions.

In between staying inside out of the smoke to stay healthy, and looking at the surf, there hasn’t been much surf to miss out on.

With more flip flopping wind changes and smoke haze forecast by the Bureau, don’t expect much joy in the days ahead.  At least the water’s getting to a more comfortable temperature for a cool down swim.

Friday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range North East

Saturday: 1 metre or so North East, to be chopped around by Southerly and E/SE onshore wind

Sunday: around 1ish metres East North East then South East, and ditto re wind from S/SE

Monday: around 1 metre Eastish

Tuesday: 1 or 1+ metres North East

And, beyond that I can’t see through the pesky smoke haze at the moment…

Leave you with a couple of thoughts:

“The best surfer out there is the one having the most fun” Phil Edwards.

“Stay cool. Have fun!” TG

Up in the Air

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Nov 21 06:30:00 2019

MSLP Analysis for Thu Nov 21 00:00:00 2019 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8,i:pressure,m:cIJaknc

Down in the Sea

Water temp is improving… currently around 20

image

Tides

Click to access tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Smoke. Windy.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Areas of smoke haze. Winds northeasterly 30 to 45 km/h decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening. A POOR Air Quality Forecast alert is issued by the NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (DPIE) due to elevated PM2.5 levels in Sydney for Thursday, 21st November, 2019.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 4:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Friday 22 November

Summary
Min 20
Max 26
Morning smoke and haze.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Areas of haze and smoke haze in the morning. Slight (20%) chance of a shower in the evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the west in the evening. Winds northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h tending southeasterly 25 to 35 km/h early in the morning then tending southerly 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening. A POOR Air Quality Forecast alert is issued by the NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (DPIE) due to elevated PM10 and PM2.5 levels in Sydney for Friday 22nd November, 2019.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Morning smoke and haze. Sydney 20 26
Morning smoke and haze. Penrith 19 33
Morning smoke and haze. Liverpool 18 29
Morning smoke and haze. Terrey Hills 19 24
Morning smoke and haze. Richmond 19 32
Morning smoke and haze. Parramatta 18 27
Morning smoke and haze. Campbelltown 16 30
Morning smoke and haze. Bondi 20 23

Saturday 23 November

Summary
Min 19
Max 25
Possible late shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Areas of smoke haze in the west in the morning. Medium (40%) chance of showers in the evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the outer west in the afternoon and evening. Winds southerly 15 to 20 km/h turning east to southeasterly in the late morning then becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 3:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

Sunday 24 November

Summary
Min 18
Max 24
Cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower, most likely in the morning. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h tending east to southeasterly during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 4:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Monday 25 November

Summary
Min 19
Max 28
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day then tending northerly during the evening.

Tuesday 26 November

Summary
Min 21
Max 34
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny morning. Medium (40%) chance of showers, most likely later in the day. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h shifting south to southwesterly during the day.

Wednesday 27 November

Summary
Min 16
Max 23
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Winds southerly 15 to 20 km/h turning east to southeasterly during the morning.

Thursday 28 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 27
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

##


Dense smoke again, NEr should clear it later

Posted on November 21st, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

UPDATE: Stopped by Longy and grabbed some snaps…

Superb Blue Wren (Malurus cyaneus) looking superb at Long Reef

Dee Why in the smoke

Wave of the day Longy

Up the beach at Longy

Near the Pole

Smoky scene at Longy

EARLIER:

The picture tells the story. Very smoky this morning. Not good for folks with breathing issues and exercising in this muck is probably like smoking a couple of cigarettes. Although I can’t see the beach from RealSurf HQ yet, it does appear that there are little waves in the knee to waist high range down at the beach. The MHL was showing a metre at 12 seconds from the SSE as of 0400.

We should have NE wind by around lunch time, so that should alleviate the smoke situation and it may even be accompanied by a gradual increase in swell energy. As the models have been saying for the last few days, we should see a NE pulse develop overnight and into tomorrow morning. Unfortunately the wind call is for southerlies going SE, so finding good quality may be a challenge. We’ll see what the Goat thinks later…

Have a good Thursday everyone!

Visibility @500 metres around 0630 at RealSurf HQ

Weather Situation
A high pressure system lies over the northern Tasman Sea will direct increasing north to northeasterly winds along the coast, as a cold front approaches from the southwest. This front will bring a vigorous southerly change to southern and central parts of the coast from late Thursday, reaching the lower Mid North Coast by Friday afternoon, when it is expected to stall and weaken.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northerly 10 to 15 knots turning northeasterly 15 to 25 knots in the middle of the day. Winds reaching up to 30 knots during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday, then increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
East to northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny. Smoke haze.
Friday 22 November
Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots early in the morning. Winds tending southerly early in the morning then tending east to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing below 2 metres during the morning, then decreasing to 1 metre during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Saturday 23 November
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming southerly 15 to 20 knots during the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening


Dull grey and as good as flat at Dee Why

Posted on November 20th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Not a great looking surf day at Dee Why this morning. I couldn’t see anything rideable from RealSurf HQ this when I climbed aloft for a look around 0720. Skies were heavily overcast and there was only a faint south breeze. The MHL data from 0500 showed 1.5 metres at 6-7 seconds from the SE. So, no joy there. Beachwatch reports good water quality and an ocean at 20C.
Outlook is for the tiny conditions to persist through tomorrow, but Friday continues to look mildly promising for a little wave as we get an influx of vigorous NE wind and accompanying wind bump. I’m hoping for scrappy but surfable waist plus at magnets… but we’ll see what the Goat thinks tomorrow.
Have a great Wednesday!

Not much at Dee Why as of 0715


 

Weather Situation
A high pressure system lies over the northern Tasman Sea while a trough continues to move along northern parts of the coast, bringing a brief southerly change today. Later this afternoon, this trough will weaken and the high again become the dominant feature, with winds turning north to northeasterly. During Thursday and Friday northerly winds look set to strengthen ahead of a cold front that is forecast to bring a vigorous southerly change to southern and central parts of the coast from late Thursday. This change is expected to stall and weaken as it reaches the Mid North Coast by Friday afternoon.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots inshore early in the morning. Winds turning easterly in the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Thursday 21 November
Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots becoming north to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday, then increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
East to northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Cloud clearing.
Friday 22 November
Winds
North to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots shifting south to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots during the morning then tending south to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 to 2 metres during the late morning.
1st Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.


Smoky, too smoky to see the sea

Posted on November 19th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Had a look from Manly to Dee Why this morning and can report that there were little waves at all the beaches. We’re talking knee to waist at best, plus it looked pretty gutless and weak. Take the mal or the fishy I’d say. Not super crowded and the wind was yet to kick into gear when I checked around 0900. So yeah, if you don’t mind the dense air pollution, there are a few lumps to be had.

Momentary section at Dee Why.

Dee Why point in the smoke

Longy barely visible from Dee Why 0900

Soft little bumps at Curly around 0900

Tiny lines and lotsa haze at Curl Curl

South Steyne rider with Fairy Bower veiled in smoke haze

Queensy smoked not smoking

Looking toward Queensy from south Steyne

 

From earlier:

Couldn’t see the beach from RealSurf HQ this morning thanks to the heavy bushfire smoke from early. Wind was coming weakly from the NW, so this stuff is obviously coming from that direction. According to Fires Near Me there are 30+ fires between here and Coffs. And, according to a noisy minority in the government and media, now is not the time to mention the climate emergency. I guess we shouldn’t cough too loudly either. And we’re not even to summer yet.

I’ll be making a commuter run to Manly soon, so I’ll get some pictures of the beach then. Right now though, visibility outside RealSurf HQ is down to maybe 3-400 metres. We’re at an altitude of 100 metres, so it could be thicker down at sea level. Not a good day to be outside for anyone, let alone those with compromised lung function.

The MHL buoy is showing 1.3 metres of 11-second energy from the SSE (162-164°). Tide was low at 0740 and is now coming into a 1.6 m high a little after 1400.

It still looks like being very small to near flat until around Friday when the models are showing a short period mainly NE wind swell potentially delivering waist to chest plus at magnets.

Check back later this morning for beach pics and an update on conditions.

Weather Situation

A high pressure system lies over the Tasman Sea while a cold front moves across to the south. A trough associated with this front will bring a brief southerly change to southern and central waters today. Later on Wednesday, winds will turn north to northeasterly as the high again becomes the dominant feature. Late on Thursday and during Friday, a cold front looks set to bring a vigorous southerly change to southern and central parts of the coast, and then stall and weaken about the Mid North Coast.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast

Winds
North to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending north to northeasterly in the afternoon, then shifting south to southeasterly 15 to 25 knots in the evening. Winds reaching up to 30 knots inshore in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Wednesday 20 November

Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots turning east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy.

Thursday 21 November

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots increasing to 20 to 30 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Fight For The Bight

Posted on November 18th, 2019 in News Stories.

11am Saturday November 23rd at Manly Beach

to be part of the #fightforthebight NATIONAL DAY OF ACTION!

 

Surfrider Foundation are leading a Paddle Out at Manly and if you haven’t made it to one yet now is your chance!

Be a part of history as thousands of Australians from over 50 communities across the country join together in a National Day of Action opposing Norwegian oil company Equinor drilling in the Great Australian Bight.

This is a line in the sand moment for Australians, to stand united and show Equinor that we love our coastline and do not give them OUR approval to risk the entire Southern coastline and never will! Enough is enough, we demand a safe, clean future for younger generations to enjoy an this people, is only the beginning!

On the 8th of November 2019, NOPSEMA issued a notice to Equinor requiring them to modify and resubmit their environment plan for proposed drilling in the Great Australian Bight giving them another 21 days to respond

Equinor explained that a social licence to operate was key to the project progressing, saying “if we are not wanted here, we will not push through resistance”

Communities all over Australia have been running Paddle Outs throughout the year, in opposition to Norwegian company Equinor’s proposal to drill for oil in the Great Australian Bight. Northern Beaches now has the chance to become part of history and continue the fight to save the Great Australian Bight by joining in a NATIONAL DAY OF ACTION on the 23rd of November. This movement is getting traction all around the world and now is your chance to be a part of the movement and make your voice heard.

Our oceans have given us all so much and never asked for anything in return. Not until now, our oceans are in jeopardy and crying out for help. This is our chance to stand up and show Equinor we WILL NOT allow them to destroy the Great Australian Bight, one of the most beautiful, roughest and unpredictable seas in the world. We will force Equinor to listen to us.

The time is now to draw a line in the sand: stand unified with other communities and tell Equinor that Australians have said NO, continue to say NO and will forever say NO to drilling for oil in the Great Australian Bight.

#noXwayequinor

This is for anyone, you don’t have to be a surfer, come out on a kayak, sailboard, boogie board, whatever but keep it safe, or show your support on the beach.

Details:

– Meet at 11am on Saturday morning
– Manly Beach – South End
– BYO signs, tee shirts and something to paddle on
– Please try and walk or carpool as parking is a premium
– Wear sunscreen, a hat, and bring some water
#bigoildontsurf

What else can you do?

  • Share this event far and wide.
  •  Sign the statement: https://www.fightforthebight.org.au/statement
  • Spread the word that the Northern Beaches DO NOT WANT EQUINOR DRILLING FOR OIL in the Great Australian Bight.

Monday in a minor key

Posted on November 18th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Good day to have things other than surfing on your agenda. It doesn’t seem to be much above ankle to knee high at Dee Why. The point’s flat and I couldn’t see anyone in the water north from there toward No Mans. That said, the MHL buoy was showing 1.8 m at 11 seconds from 162° as of 0500 so I wouldn’t be amazed if it was into the waist high range at better exposures. Wind was light and from the NNW before 0800, but it should go around to the NE later this morning. So, the usual summer advice: look at the semi-protected north corners if you’re hanging out for a wave.
Water’s 19C and the next tide’s a 1.7 m high at 1305.
Outlook is for the energy levels to fade today and to stay tiny to near flat through the week. There does seem to be some hope for a little bump up into the more surfable range by this weekend. But right now it looks like being only a tiny improvement.

Have a great Monday everyone!

Point looking flat at 0720

A little more activity up the beach toward No Mans

 

 

Weather Situation
A high pressure system across the southeastern Australia is drifting east towards the Tasman Sea, promoting northerly winds along the coast today. Then a trough is forecast to move across southern and central waters on Tuesday, bringing a southerly change.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Winds
Easterly about 10 knots becoming north to northeasterly early in the morning then increasing to 15 to 25 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres around midday.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Weather
Cloud clearing.
Tuesday 19 November
Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots tending north to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots before dawn then shifting south to southeasterly 20 to 25 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning, then increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.
Wednesday 20 November
Winds
Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots turning east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy.


Ho-hum Sunday

Posted on November 17th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Dull old morning along the beaches thanks to the cloudy skies. The day started with 8-10 kts of SSE wind and very little swell. The MHL buoy is offline, but from RealSurf HQ this morning, Dee Why looked to be maybe ankle to knee high with the odd bigger one. Not a surf day really.
Outlook is not fabulous. Both the ECM and Wavewatch models are showing marginal to near flat until the end of the coming work week. So, maybe something on Friday and into Saturday…
Might be a good day to catch up on other things!
Go well.

SUPing around at Kiddies as Sunday got going

A couple of hopefuls noodling around up the beach

Weather Situation
A weak trough over central waters will move northwards, reaching the Queensland border later today as a high pressure system over the Bight pushes a ridge across southern New South Wales waters. This high will drift east over the next day or two, reaching the Tasman Sea on Monday and promoting northerly winds along the coast. Another trough is forecast to move across southern and central waters on Tuesday, bringing a southerly change.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 25 knots in the morning and increasing to 20 to 30 knots in the afternoon. Winds decreasing then decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday, then increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm during the morning and afternoon.
Monday 18 November
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Tuesday 19 November
Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots tending north to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the morning then shifting southeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.


Onshore from early but waves for the keen

Posted on November 16th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Last night’s south change leaves us with a small, messy south swell and 9-13 kts of SSE wind along the beaches. At optimal exposures such as Dee Why, conditions are junky but definitely surfable. Set wave faces looked to be in the waist to shoulder high range. The MHL buoy was seeing 1.8 metres at 11 seconds from 162°.
Wind is set to come around to the NE later today, but not to weaken. On the other hand, the Bureau says the waves should pick up a little more during the day.
Tide is a swampy 1.78 m high at 1125. It’ll be back to low a little after 1800. We should see a high around 24C today and Beachwatch’s latest says water’s still 19C and quality is good.
Surf outlook is pretty typical for this time of year, ie mostly around the waist high mark at surfable spots, but blown out by mid morning. Tomorrow morning might see a little bump in the north corners, but the rest of the week is looking fairly ho-hum.
Get out there if you can and have yourself a top old Saturday!

Nothing much happening at Long Reef

Fun ones in the sideshores at Dee Why

Dee Why showing possibilities at 0630

South Narrabeen 0625

Nothing of interest along the Narabeen stretch at 0625


 
Weather Situation
A high pressure system south of the Bight will slowly move east over the coming days while extending a ridge across parts of New South Wales. At the same time, a number of troughs will move through parts of the coast: one bringing a southerly change to the north coast today, another bringing a resurgence of south to southeasterly winds to the coast on Sunday, and yet another ushering a southerly change to the southern and central coast on Tuesday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds turning east to northeasterly in the late afternoon and evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres during the morning, then increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Sunday 17 November
Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning southerly 15 to 20 knots in the late morning then tending southeasterly 15 to 25 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.
Monday 18 November
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon then tending northerly during the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy


Friday wave activity

Posted on November 15th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

A beautiful morning along the beaches as Friday got started. But it looks like a fair amount of smoke up north. There seemed to be a layer of smoke over the southern bits of the Central Coast when I looked toward Lion Is;land. But Dee Why, as the pictures show, was delightfully sunny and, better than that, we have some swell too. The crew at the point was seeing somewhat fat waves with faces into the chest high range on the bigger ones. Along the beach there were others looking for a little something, but I didn’t see anyone catch one.
The MHL buoy was showing 1.7 m of 10 second energy from 160° at daybreak. Wind was coming lightly from the SW. Tide is coming into a swampy 1.79 m high at 1040, it’ll be back to low at 1720. Beachwatch says the water’s fine and sitting on 19C. Should get to a hot 32C along the beaches today and wind will come around to the NE by lunch time.

As ever, the Goat spilled his surf guts last night, so check out the wise one’s predictions here.
Go well everybody!

Lines up the beach at 0700

Another set at the point

Plausible little lines up the beach

Waves getting caught at 0700

 

.
.

Weather Situation
A ridge of high pressure is extending across New South Wales. A cold front is forecast to bring a southerly change to southern coastal waters this morning, moving across the remainder of the coast during later Friday and into Saturday.

Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots tending north to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day. A south to southwesterly change at 15 to 20 knots in the late evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre around midday.
Weather
Sunny. Smoke haze, easing during the morning.
Saturday 16 November
Winds
South to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots, tending east to southeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the late morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Sunday 17 November
Winds
East to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning southeasterly 15 to 25 knots during the morning.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1 to 2 metres offshore.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on November 14th, 2019 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 14 November 2019:

Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Waves popped up this morning at places open to dead South swell, but it was short lived and has eased back now. To be precise the swell height didn’t actually pop up, but the period did, so more energy was able to get in to receptive beaches.

The outlook, with variable winds and weather forecast, is not looking too exciting.

Let’s keep it rooly simple… cause that’s what I am>>>

Any waves are likely to get in to places open to dead South… other places aren’t likely to see anything much…

Friday – next Thursday: If it’s 1 metre ish or so dead South, be happy.

If it’s not, still be happy.

TG

Up in the Air

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Nov 14 05:30:00 2019

MSLP Analysis for Thu Nov 14 00:00:00 2019 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 19

image

Tides

Click to access tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

 

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Smoke.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Clear. Smoke haze developing from the north into the evening. Winds northwest to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Friday 15 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 32
Early smoke then mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Areas of smoke haze. Light winds becoming westerly 20 to 30 km/h in the morning then turning south to southwesterly in the evening. A POOR Air Quality Forecast alert is issued by the Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (DPIE) due to elevated PM2.5 levels in Sydney for Friday 15 November 2019

Fire Danger – Severe

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Early smoke then mostly sunny. Sydney 17 32
Early smoke then sunny. Penrith 14 35
Early smoke then mostly sunny. Liverpool 13 34
Early smoke then mostly sunny. Terrey Hills 14 30
Early smoke then sunny. Richmond 13 34
Early smoke then mostly sunny. Parramatta 13 33
Early smoke then mostly sunny. Campbelltown 11 33
Early smoke. Becoming windy. Bondi 17 26

Saturday 16 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 24
Possible late shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny day. Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the evening. Winds southerly 25 to 35 km/h tending south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h before dawn then shifting easterly 15 to 25 km/h in the early afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Sunday 17 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 22
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning, most likely along the coast. Light winds becoming southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 4:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

Monday 18 November

Summary
Min 16
Max 26
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the afternoon.

Tuesday 19 November

Summary
Min 16
Max 31
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Winds northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h shifting south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h later in the day.

Wednesday 20 November

Summary
Min 18
Max 25
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds southerly 15 to 25 km/h turning easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning.

Thursday 21 November

Summary
Min 19
Max 29
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.