Archive for July 2020

Fun looking Manly

Posted on July 31st, 2020 in Surf Reports.

Chilly but shoulder to head high at Queenscliff end of the beach.

Tribute to Midget?

Chilly and scrappy

Posted on July 31st, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

A chilly 9C at RealSurf HQ around 0700 this morning. Skies were partly cloudy and the wind was out of the WNW at 5-6 kts. Out at sea the buoys were seeing 2.3 metres of 8-9 sec SE swell but inshore at Dee Why the conditions were, as you can see from the pics, kinda junky and weak looking. Sets seem to be around the chest high mark, but given where people were sitting at the point, there must be bigger sets.
Wind is set to come around to the south and pick up before fading again late this afternoon. The Bureau says we should see a high of 17C today and Beachwatch reports the water temp is currently 17C as well. Tide was high at 0530 and is currently running out to the low at 1110.
As for the outlook, well, lucky you, because the Mighty Goat has weighed the portents and last night made his pronouncement about our surf prospects for the next week.
Mask up when you go to the shops or any other public interior space, because the virus doesn’t care if it’s convenient or not; corona viruses are just a set of replication instructions packed in a fatty ball with pokey-out bits to hook onto cells in your upper respiratory tract. Let’s protect each other.

Kiddies peak

Crew waiting for a set at the point

Up the beach, a bumpy line dribbles in at 0715

Weather Situation
A low pressure system over the Tasman Sea continues to decay as it slowly moves further east. Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure is pushing across inland New South Wales from the west. Fresh to strong southerly winds will ease by the weekend as the high moves across, and it will move to the Tasman Sea by Sunday.

Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots early in the morning. Winds decreasing to about 10 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday, then decreasing below 1 metre by early evening.
1st Swell
Southerly 2 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Easterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Saturday 1 August
Winds
Variable about 10 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres.
2nd Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.
Sunday 2 August
Winds
West to southwesterly below 10 knots becoming north to northeasterly during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on July 30th, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf Forecast issued Thursday 30 July 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Woooooo… that fresh southerly breeze on the coast is chilly.  It brought the size up a little this arvo but no one wanted to be out in it as far as I could see.

Down a little tomorrow, similar Saturday, then waves all week while gradually easing back in size and swinging direction.

Friday: upper end of the 1-2 metre range South/South East

Saturday: ditto East South East with some oomph

Sunday: down a little more in the 1-2 metre range but still with some push East South East

Monday:  around 1 metre or so East

Tuesday: ditto East North East

Wednesday: ditto again North East

Thursday: similarish North East

On better understanding >>>

Drove my bike, that I mostly ride to the beach and back sometimes, to a bike shop to get a new tube for a flat tyre.

I pushed it in to the shop, and the guy checked it out and said:

Really the two rims are wearing down to unsafe levels. They could split while you’re riding, which is dangerous. (Agreed). You’re looking at around $400 for two new wheels, but there’s a few other things that need attention.

You’re better off getting a new bike for around $500.

But we don’t have one of those to suit you at the moment.

We’ve got like this for $700, or this for a thousand.  (Hmmm.. expensive flat tyre).

Decided I’d think about it…

I pushed my bike back out to the car.

Now I have a better understanding of why they are called push bikes>>>

TG.

Up in the Air

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Jul 30 06:30:00 2020

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jul 30 00:00:00 2020 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-33.859,151.200,5

Down in the Sea

image

Water temp is around 17-18.

Tides

Click to access tide-tables-2020-2021.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds southerly 20 to 30 km/h turning southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h in the late evening.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Friday 31 July

Summary
Min 9
Max 17
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h tending southerly 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the early afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 11:20 am to 12:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Mostly sunny. Sydney 9 17
Sunny. Penrith 5 18
Sunny. Liverpool 6 17
Mostly sunny. Terrey Hills 8 15
Sunny. Richmond 3 17
Sunny. Parramatta 6 17
Sunny. Campbelltown 3 18
Mostly sunny. Bondi 11 17

Saturday 1 August

Summary
Min 7
Max 19
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Patchy fog in the early morning. Areas of morning frost in the outer west. Sunny day. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 10:50 am to 1:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Sunday 2 August

Summary
Min 8
Max 18
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 10:40 am to 1:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Monday 3 August

Summary
Min 8
Max 20
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds.

Tuesday 4 August

Summary
Min 9
Max 21
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds.

Wednesday 5 August

Summary
Min 10
Max 19
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower, most likely later in the day. Light winds.

Thursday 6 August

Summary
Min 10
Max 17
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h later.


Clean little lines for Dee Why this morning

Posted on July 30th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Chilly, mostly clear start to Thursday morning along the beaches. There were some nice looking lines coming in, but they didn’t appear too easy to catch. It looked as though you couldn’t get into them until you were pretty close to the sand, or at the point, pretty close to the rocks. Wave faces were in the waist and a bit range.

Before 0800 the wind was coming from the westerly quarters and swell at sea was 1.7 metres at 8 seconds apart from the ESE. However, the Bureau tells to expect the wind to come up hard from the south. At the same time the swell should start building too. Tomorrow it’s expected to still be blowing hard from the southern quarters and the swell should be into the overhead range at magnets. As for the rest of the week, well, I’ll wait for the Goat to drop his weekly forecast later today!

Check back later and in the meantime, keep your distance, wear a mask if you’re indoors anywhere other than your home and keep up the hand washing!

Set arrives but doesn’t end up being caught 0715

Kiddies set

The lines look the goods, but they didn’t always deliver

Weather Situation
A low continues to traverse across the Tasman Sea while a high pressure system moves across the mainland. These conditions are expected to see fresh south to southwesterly winds across the waters into the early parts of the weekend.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 20 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots during the day.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 metres by early evening.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Friday 31 July
Strong Wind Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 25 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 25 knots during the morning.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 2 to 2.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy.

Saturday 1 August
Winds
Southwesterly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots during the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southeasterly 2 to 2.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres inshore during the afternoon or evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Sunny skies and waves

Posted on July 29th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Looks like little waves to be had at Dee Why this morning. It’s chilly, but clean and still in the chest plus range. The latest MHL data showed 2.5 metres of 11-second south swell out at sea. Wind was 7-10kts west. Next tide is a low at 0915. Swell’s dropping steadily now, so best to hit it asap. Tomorrow shouldn’t be flat, but it’s expected to be marginal size in the morning, but then bumping up again for Friday.
Go well, stay safe, and mask up for indoors public spaces!

A few bods in the water at the point waiting for sets like this at 0730

Fun looking lefts up the beach

Not super crowded

 
Weather Situation
A low continues to traverse across the Tasman Sea while a high pressure system moves across the mainland. These conditions are expected to see fresh south to southwesterly winds across the waters into the early parts of the weekend.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
Southwesterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots offshore during the day. Winds turning southerly in the late afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres by early evening.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres by early evening.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Thursday 30 July
Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 metres by early evening.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Friday 31 July
Winds
Southerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly 2 to 2.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon or evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Messy, rainy and smaller but not small

Posted on July 28th, 2020 in At large.

Hello Friends,

0900: Swell definitely smaller but set wave faces at South Steyne and the Bower were still head and a bit

Water looked suss but surface conditions were relatively smooth. The low tide was making it crunchy and shuttydowny but that wasn’t deterring folks.

The MHL buoy off Sydney reported 3.8 metres at 10 seconds mainly from the south (168°). Wind was 13-21 kts SSW as of 0730. Tide hits low at 0820 and will be back to high at 1450. Weather should see the showers backing off across the day as we head to a high of 18C. Beaches north from Long Reef were rated as ‘pollution likely’ by Beachwatch yesterday.

Prospects look a little more hopeful for tomorrow and Friday morning as the weather clears up and the swell drops back into the more approachable range. For today, I’d be skipping it.

South Steyne

Queenscliff barrel

South Steyne

Bower set

Weather Situation
A low pressure system off the coast is bringing gale force southerly winds and large, powerful surf along the southern and central parts of the coast. The winds are expected to ease below gale force during the later part of today as the low gradually weakens and moves east, but fresh to strong southerly winds will remain along parts of the coast through to Thursday.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southwesterly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Easterly 2 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Wednesday 29 July
Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 25 knots turning southerly 15 to 20 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres by early evening.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Thursday 30 July
Winds
Southwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending southerly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Mostly sunny.


Stormy seas for Monday morning

Posted on July 27th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

As noted in the forecast below, we have two swells hitting the coast at the same time this morning. They’re coming from the east to NE and the south and the combined effect is 4-7 metres of 12 second energy hitting the coast. Wind was out of the west at daybreak and there was a break from the rain. But it should be back and bucketing as the Bureau is warning of up to 35 mm for the Sydney region. Plus the wind should be going very hard from the SW this afternoon. At this stage, it looks like being suitable only for the most keen and fit through tomorrow. Swell is set to drop pretty quickly, so Wednesday could be a lot more accessible as we potentially head to small again by week’s end.

Super clean section at Queenscliff

Solid and clean looking lines at Collaroy

Very hard to catch at Collaroy despite offshore conditions. Bomb sets and strong sweep make it hard work

Weather Situation
A low pressure system off the central part of the coast is forecast to bring gale to possibly storm force southerly winds and large powerful surf along the southern and central parts of the coast today. The winds are expected to ease below gale force during the later part of Tuesday as the low gradually weakens, but fresh to strong southerly winds will remain along parts of the coast through to Thursday.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Gale Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
Winds
East to southeasterly 20 to 30 knots, tending southeast to southwesterly inshore, in the morning. Winds turning southwesterly 30 to 40 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, increasing to 3 to 5 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending south to southwesterly 2 to 3 metres by early evening.
2nd Swell
Easterly 2.5 to 3 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. Near 100% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Tuesday 28 July
Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
South to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 2.5 to 3 metres.
2nd Swell
Easterly 2 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Cloudy. Near 100% chance of showers.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Wednesday 29 July
Winds
Southwesterly 15 to 25 knots turning southerly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southerly 2 to 2.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy


Drippy Sunday morning

Posted on July 26th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

It was raining lightly but steadily as Sunday morning got started along the beaches. Wind was coming from the SSE at 8-10 kts as of 0830, but, as the Bureau says below, it should swing NE and pick up into the 15-20 kt range. Swell was 1.3 metres and out of the east at close to 8 seconds apart. Judging from the cams, it’s as the numbers would suggest – ie, gutless, junky and knee to maybe waist and a bit at the best exposures. You have to be very, very keen.

Tide was low at 0635 and will be back to the 1.5m high at 1250

The low looks like coming down along the coast from up north and as it approaches us the swell will build from the east to a peak intensity around noon tomorrow while the rain is pelting down and the wind swings from SE through to SW.  It looks as though Tuesday could be the peak for the swell energy. The ECM model is showing an 0600 Tue prediction of 4 metres from the SSE with 3 metres from the east with a period of around 10 seconds and wind at 25 kts from the SSW. Wavewatch is more enthusiastic and says 6.6 m SSE with 1.3 m east. Either way, it looks like vulnerable coastal properties could be facing alterations to their seaward extents.

By Wednesday the swell should have dropped into – potentially – fun territory.

We shall see…

Stay safe and dry, mask up particularly when you go into enclosed public spaces, and maintain your distance.

 

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots tending easterly 15 to 25 knots in the late morning or early afternoon. Winds turning southeast to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres around midday.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 2 metres, tending easterly 2 metres around midday, then tending east to northeasterly 2 to 4 metres by early evening.
Weather
Cloudy. Near 100% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm.

Monday 27 July

Gale Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Southeast to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots tending south to southwesterly 25 to 40 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 4 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Easterly 3 to 4 metres, decreasing to 2.5 to 3 metres around midday.
2nd Swell
Southerly below 1 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Cloudy. Near 100% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore in the early morning.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Little but rideable

Posted on July 25th, 2020 in At large.

Hello Friends,

The quiet before the storm this morning. Not much change to surf options since yesterday. It looked inconsistent and around knee to maybe waist high at Narrabeen and along the Longy-Dee Why stretch. So a good morning to go for a paddle if you’re a beginner. The clouds and rain are due later, as is the NE sea breeze, so earlier is better if you can manage it. Water is 17C, so not bad in a steamer.

As of 0400, the MHL buoy was showing 1.1 metres at 11.8 sec from 158°. Tide was low at 0545 and will be back to high at noon.

Current outlook is for the swell to gradually start building tomorrow as it heads to a peak in the 3 metre range Tuesday afternoon. Right now the wind looks like being southerly across Sun-Mon but as the swell peaks, it could be a fairly stiff  20+kts from the SW with showery weather. Wednesday is currently predicted to be partly cloudy with swell dropping into the 2 metre range. Could be the go…

Take care, mask up when you go into shared internal spaces and keep washing those hands!

Kiddies set

Lone hunter near the Pole

Surfrider Gardens peak

Good morning Saturday

Weather Situation
A high pressure system lies over the southern Tasman Sea, while a low pressure trough is deepening off the northern New South Wales coast. This trough is forecast to deepen to a low pressure system from late Saturday or early Sunday before heading south. Depending on its position, strong winds and large surf to some coastal areas are possible from the later part of the weekend into early next week.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning easterly in the late evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm from late this morning.
Sunday 26 July
Gale Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Easterly 15 to 25 knots shifting south to southwesterly 30 to 45 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, increasing to 2.5 to 4 metres by early evening.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending easterly 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. Near 100% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.
Monday 27 July
Winds
Southerly 30 to 40 knots turning southwesterly 30 to 40 knots during the morning.
Seas
3 to 5 metres.
1st Swell
Below 0.5 metres, tending southerly 2 to 4 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Easterly 2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning.

Forecast for the rest of Saturday

Summary
Max 19
A few showers developing.
Possible rainfall: 4 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Areas of morning fog. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely during this afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm from late this morning. Light winds becoming northeast to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the evening then becoming light in the late evening.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Sunday 26 July

Summary
Min 12
Max 18
Rain. Becoming windy.
Possible rainfall: 40 to 60 mm
Chance of any rain: 100% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm in the late morning and afternoon. Winds east to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h turning south to southwesterly 35 to 55 km/h in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 11:50 am to 12:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Monday 27 July

Summary
Min 13
Max 18
Showers. Windy.
Possible rainfall: 5 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. Winds southwesterly 35 to 55 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 11:10 am to 12:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]


Up a bit but tide an issue to start

Posted on July 24th, 2020 in Surf Reports.

More swell around but Manly, Curly and Dee Why all looked pretty fat as of 0930. Take the nal or hope for better later…

Nice lines

Slow and fat but do-able