Archive for October 2020

Good morning to stay in

Posted on October 31st, 2020 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Thunder, dark grey skies, spitty rain and 10-15 kts of east wind, combined with 1.4 metres of 9 second SE swell. Throw in a 1.6 m high tide at 0855 and you have a recipe for dire surf prospects this morning. In fact it looks like being ordinary all day weatherwise, but the Bureau says the wind should get around to the westerly quarters by noon as the swell perks a little, so it might be worth keeping an eye on things, just in case it comes together…
Outlook is for gale force SW wind tomorrow with a bit more swell, so there might be a surf option for the super keen in the morning. The models show a return to southerly wind from around lunchtime Sunday which will then last through Monday. Tuesday looks like being the day, at least according to the Wavewatch model. It’s calling for light southerly with close to 2 metres of ESE bump at a short 9 second interval, so surf may not be much above the waist high mark at magnets.

Go well with your Saturday and take the mask if you’re going into public spaces.

Lone Longy surf hunter 0640

Blergh at Dee Why

Nothing doing at south Narrabeen

North Narrabeen looking weak and gloomy

Weather Situation
A low pressure system is deepening over NSW, and will move east to reach the Tasman Sea later today, and then will move further east on Sunday, allowing a freshening southerly flow to extend along the NSW coast. A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea will extend a ridge over NSW on Monday.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northeast to southeasterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots during the morning. Winds tending west to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots in the middle of the day then tending west to southwesterly in the evening.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
1st Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning, then tending east to northeasterly 1.5 metres by early evening.
2nd Swell
South to southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. Near 100% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.
Sunday 1 November
Gale Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Westerly 20 to 30 knots turning south to southwesterly 25 to 30 knots during the morning. Winds reaching up to 35 knots during the day.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 4 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly below 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 metres, tending easterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Monday 2 November
Winds
Southerly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, tending southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Pretty little mal waves

Posted on October 30th, 2020 in Surf Reports.

Hello Friends,

Sunny skies and light offshores for the early risers. Swell at sea had dropped back to 1.2 metres at 10 seconds from 133° as of 0630. Quite a bit smaller than this time yesterday. Plus the tide was coming into the 1.57 m high at 0825 (it’s back to low at 1435).

Grabbed a couple snaps from Manly where it was busy thanks to the small and soft but otherwise beautiful conditions.

Weather Situation

A low pressure system is deepening over NSW in response to an active upper trough which will turn winds east to northeasterly during today. The low will slowly move east to reach the Tasman Sea on Saturday and move away to the east on Sunday allowing freshening southerly flow to extend along the NSW coast. A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea will extend a ridge over NSW on Monday.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Winds
Southwesterly 10 to 15 knots becoming east to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon and increasing offshore to east to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots at night.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
1st Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Saturday 31 October

Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast

Winds
East to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots, turning west to northwesterly 15 to 25 knots around midday, then becoming northeast to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening, tending west to southwesterly at night.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning, then decreasing around 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, tending northeasterly 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.

Sunday 1 November

Winds
West to southwesterly about 10 knots early, turning south to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots during the morning.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
South to southeasterly below 1 metre, tending southwesterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on October 29th, 2020 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 29 October 2020: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Been a pretty ordinary week of weather and wave conditions most of the time. It even felt like it was winter again. But there were opportunities at times for the keen and fit enthusiasts…

The more sensitive souls with a few years of experience of such conditions behind them, chose not to play.

The outlook for the week ahead looks like more variable weather, winds and surf quality, but there will be waves of sorts.

Keen players should be ready to pounce on possibilities as they arise>>>

Friday: easing back from Thursday, in the 1-2 metre range East South East…

Saturday: …before kicking up a notch in the 1-2 metre range Eastish

Sunday: coming up more into the 2-3 metre range East North East, with southerly type winds later

Monday: easing back in the 1-2 metre range Eastish, with southerly winds

Tuesday: in the lower end of the 1-2 metre range East

Wednesday: ditto, with freshening NE winds

Thursday: ditto for the surf.

Keep smiling 🙂

TG

Up in the Air

MSLP Analysis for Thu Oct 29 06:00:00 2020 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Oct 29 06:30:00 2020

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 18 ish. Still cool water off Sydney

image

 

Tides

Click to access tide-tables-2020-2021.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Possible shower.
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Mostly clear. High(70%) chance of showers, most likely in the west, clearing later this evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the west early this evening. Winds southerly 15 to 25 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

Friday 30 October

Summary
Min 13
Max 22
Late shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Areas of fog in the early morning, mainly in the west. High (70%) chance of showers, most likely in the late afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the west in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h in the evening then becoming light in the late evening.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Late shower or two. Sydney 13 22
Late showers. Possible storm. Penrith 11 26
Early fog. Late shower or two. Liverpool 11 24
Late shower or two. Terrey Hills 12 21
Late showers. Possible storm. Richmond 10 25
Early fog. Late shower or two. Parramatta 11 24
Early fog. Late shower or two. Campbelltown 9 24
Late shower or two. Bondi 15 20

Saturday 31 October

Summary
Min 17
Max 26
Showers. Possible storm.
Possible rainfall: 15 to 25 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon. Winds east to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the morning then becoming west to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]

Sunday 1 November

Summary
Min 15
Max 22
Showers. Becoming windy.
Possible rainfall: 8 to 15 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning then tending southerly 30 to 45 km/h during the day.

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 4:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

Monday 2 November

Summary
Min 16
Max 22
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds southerly 25 to 35 km/h becoming light during the evening.

Tuesday 3 November

Summary
Min 15
Max 22
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds.

Wednesday 4 November

Summary
Min 15
Max 25
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Thursday 5 November

Summary
Min 16
Max 22
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Winds southerly 15 to 20 km/h turning east to southeasterly during the day.


They’re back

Posted on October 29th, 2020 in Surf Reports.

Like thousands of blue Christmas lights the length of Dee Why beach…


Manly snaps

Posted on October 29th, 2020 in Manly.

Longish waits and fat too, but shoulder high faces all along the Manly stretch. Fair amount of waiting around though…


Stormy skies and solid sets early

Posted on October 29th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Heaps of dawn patrollers on it this morning at Dee Why as conditions were glassy and the showers were taking a break. Sets looked to be into the head and a bit range on the bigger ones. Water quality didn’t look too wonderful though but that said, yesterday’s Beachwatch report said pollution was unlikely, so I guess we’ll soon see what they find this morning. Wind was light from the WSW at 5-6 kts as of 0700 and it should pick up into the 15-25 kt range later. Swell at sea was 2.15 metres at 10 seconds from 132°. Weather call is for diminishing chance of rain as the day heads to a high of 19C. As for the swell, it looks as though this morning’s session will see the biggest sets. It’s already Thursday again, so we should see the Goat’s predictions for the surf week ahead this afternoon.

Go well with your plans everyone!

Bomb set at the point 0700

Size along the beach too

Weather Situation
A low pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a trough towards the Queensland coast. A transient low pressure system looks likely to develop within this trough today increasing southerly winds, this low will quickly move away to the east. After this, winds are expected to turn east to northeasterly and increase as a new trough develops over inland New South Wales. This second trough is forecast to reach the Tasman Sea on the weekend, where it may develop a low pressure system offshore.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds
East to southeasterly about 10 knots tending south to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots in the middle of the day.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 95% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Friday 30 October
Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots becoming southeasterly below 10 knots in the late afternoon then tending easterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
South to southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.
Saturday 31 October
Winds
East to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots tending northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon then becoming about 10 knots during the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, tending northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
South to southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm.


Pumping Wednesday morning

Posted on October 28th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

A break in the cloud this morning with pumping swell and light offshore wind. As you can see from the pictures, it’s consistently head plus along the beach and at the point. Plus, it looked as though there was a pretty handy a-frame just up the beach from the SLSC. Tide hit high at 0715 and will be back to low at 1315. Out at sea the buoys were seeing 2.5 metres of 10-second ESE energy.
The good conditions may not last for long as we have a 70% chance of showers and the wind is due to come up again from the south as the day goes along.
Tomorrow looks kinda iffy on the wind front (see forecast below) and the rains will continue… which means water quality will range from possible to likely polluted from Mona Vale south to Manly.
Go well with your day and stay safe!

Weather Situation
A strong high pressure system south of Tasmania is slowly moving east, while a low pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a trough towards the Queensland coast. This pattern will maintain south to southeasterly winds and a southeasterly swell over New South Wales waters for today. On Thursday, the coastal trough may deepen and strengthen southerly winds as a transient low pressure system forms and moves away to the east. After this, winds are expected to turn east to northeasterly and increase as a new trough develops over inland New South Wales.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots turning easterly in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm this evening.
Thursday 29 October
Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Northeast to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending south to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots in the afternoon becoming 15 to 20 knots in the evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 90% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and early evening.
Friday 30 October
Winds
Southwesterly 10 to 15 knots turning east to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
2nd Swell
Easterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny day. The chance of a thunderstorm in the evening.


Still stormy on Tuesday morning

Posted on October 27th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Still showery with a blustery 15-20 kt southerly scudding the clouds across the sky and tearing up the ocean. Dee Why didn’t look remotely surfable as of 0700 and given the forecast for strong winds through the day, I’d say that’s pretty unlikely to change. Out at sea the swell was 3 metres with another 3 metres of sea on top. Peak periods are 11 seconds from the SE. Not that it matters from a surfing perspective, but high tide hit at 0640 and it’s now dropping to the low at 12320. Weather should stay mostly cloudy with the occasional shower.
Tomorrow should see a more SW’ly wind pattern with a couple metres of SE swell holding out hope for a wave – but water quality is not good, in fact Beachwatch yesterday warned that pollution is likely at most beaches.
Go well and stay safe!

Extremely messy at Dee Why

No Mans not looking attractive

Weather Situation
A high pressure system south of Tasmania is strengthening and slowly moving east, while a low pressure system lies over the western Tasman Sea. This pattern is forecast to maintain south to southeasterly winds and to bring and increasing southeasterly swell to the New South Wales coast through the first half of this week until the low slips south and weakens on Wednesday.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots during the morning. Winds decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southeasterly 2.5 to 3 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore during the morning and afternoon.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Wednesday 28 October
Winds
South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots, turning east to southeasterly about 10 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.
Thursday 29 October
Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots, tending south to southwesterly about 10 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southeasterly 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers.


Warning: Partially treated discharge at Warriewood at 0400

Posted on October 26th, 2020 in At large.

Surfrider Foundation Northern Beaches received the following alert from Sydney Water this morning:

Partially treated discharge at Warriewood at 0400am 26/10/2020. Flows receiving wet weather treatment.


Gale warning morning

Posted on October 26th, 2020 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Stormy Manly

32-42 kts SSE under grey and lowering skies as Monday got started. Out at sea the 170° (S by SSE) swell was 4.8 to 7.6 metres at 7.5-11 seconds. Even so, it was too straight for Collaroy or the Bower. Not that you’d really want to be out in that maelstrom anyway. From the forecast, it looks as though things are going to stay crazy through Wednesday, although it’s just possible that tomorrow could see a few surf options open up as the wind goes more SW.

A good day to get on with other matters.

Have a good one and mask up!

Weather Situation
A high pressure system south of Tasmania is strengthening and slowly moving east, while a low pressure system lies over the western Tasman Sea. This pattern is forecast to maintain south to southeasterly winds and to bring and increasing southeasterly swell to the New South Wales coast through the first half of this week until the low slips south and weakens on Wednesday.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Gale Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
Winds
South to southeasterly 25 to 30 knots, reaching 35 knots at times.
Seas
3 to 4 metres.
Swell
Southeasterly 2 to 4 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 95% chance of rain.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Tuesday 27 October
Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 25 to 30 knots tending south to southwesterly 15 to 25 knots in the morning.
Seas
2.5 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
South to southeasterly 2 to 3 metres.
2nd Swell
East to northeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Wednesday 28 October
Winds
Southerly 10 to 15 knots turning east to southeasterly below 10 knots during the morning then tending east to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 2.5 metres, tending southeasterly 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening