Archive for January 2021

Rainy, grey, windy and small

Posted on January 28th, 2021 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

16-20 kts of SSE wind and drizzle falling from dark grey skies as Thursday lurches into gear along the coast. Out at sea the 8 second 2.4 metre was coming from 120° at 8 seconds apart. The ocean is looking pretty ordinary, unsurprisingly. Given the forecast of 20-25 kts SE wind all day, I’d say you’re safe to write this one off.
The Goat should be along with his weekend surf forecast later, so as always, I’m keen to see the master’s take on next week’s prospects. I’m nurturing hopes for fun times midweek…
Have yourself a great Thursday and good to see that the Northern Beaches have completed the COVID-19 restrictions period and today rejoin the rest of Sydney. Keep wearing the mask inside, washing your hands and maintaining distance because as long as we’re all unvaccinated, more outbreaks are pretty much assured.

Weather Situation
A weak trough of low pressure and associated southerly change has stalled on the Mid North Coast, and weakens early today. A slow-moving high pressure system south of Tasmania is drifting east, while extending a ridge towards the New South Wales coast. This high is expected to reach the southern Tasman Sea by Friday, directing east to northeasterly winds over coastal waters. The next trough is expected to affect southern parts of the coast during the weekend.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southeasterly 20 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore during the day. Winds turning easterly in the late evening.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
1st Swell
South to southeasterly 1 to 2 metres.
2nd Swell
East to northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers.

Friday 29 January
Winds
Easterly 20 to 25 knots tending northeasterly in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
Easterly around 1 metre, increasing to 2 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 metres, tending southerly around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of showers.

Saturday 30 January
Winds
Northeasterly 20 to 25 knots turning northerly 15 to 20 knots during the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
Easterly 1.5 to 2 metres, tending northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.


Blown flat

Posted on January 27th, 2021 in At large.

Hello Friends,

20-25 kts of SSW wind to kick off a cloudy Wednesday morning. Swell at sea is 2 metres from 190° (so it’s headed away from us) at only 5 seconds apart, hence the flatness.

So, no surf today, and probably nothing to speak of before Saturday at the earliest. Water’s 24C though!

SUPing tiny ripples mid-Steyne

Manly excitement

Near flat at Manly



Weather Situation

A slow-moving high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge to the northern New South Wales coast. A trough moving up the South Coast is expected to stall over the Mid North Coast tomorrow, before weakening on Thursday. In its wake another slow-moving high pressure system will become established in the southern Tasman Sea.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southerly 20 to 30 knots turning southeasterly 25 to 30 knots in the evening.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 60% chance of showers.

Thursday 28 January
Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Southeasterly 20 to 30 knots tending easterly in the late evening.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1 to 2 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre by early evening.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, tending easterly 1.5 metres during the morning, then tending southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
Weather
Cloudy. 80% chance of showers.

Friday 29 January

Winds
Easterly 20 to 30 knots turning northeasterly 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
Easterly 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy. 70% chance of showers.


Heaps of NE windswell for the early crowd

Posted on January 26th, 2021 in At large.

Hello Friends,
Lotsa people in the water for the holiday Tuesday thanks to a peaky chest high NE wind bump. Crowds were substantial from North Narrabeen to Surfrider Gardens and from Longy to Kiddies, so I assume this is the case across most Sydney beaches with NE exposure. Being that the bump is only 6-7 seconds apart, actually catching anything is something of a lottery and despite the plentiful numbers of people and wind bumps, I only saw the occasional one being caught. Still, it was a beautiful summer morning before 0800 when the wind was only faintly NE, skies were sunny and the air soft and warm. By midday, the wind is expected to be into the 25-35 kt range and the temp will be heading toward a high of 36C. Ocean is on 24C, so it looks like a real beach day.
Tide was high at 0730 and is now dropping to the low at 1415.
Tomorrow will be windy again, but from the south. It looks as though the stiff onshore conditions will stick around until the weekend. Swell should go around to the east and stay at about the current size.
Have a great day, maintain safe distance and take the mask.

Long Reef

Kiddies, Dee Why

North Collaroy

Surfrider Gardens

Northy

Surfrider Gardens

Weather Situation
A slow-moving high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge to the northern New south Wales coast. The high will weaken today and allow a stronger trough to move through southern and central waters.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast

Winds
North to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Sunny.

Wednesday 27 January
Strong Wind Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northerly 20 to 30 knots shifting southerly early in the morning then tending southeasterly 25 to 30 knots in the late evening.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
1st Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
2nd Swell
Southerly 1 to 2 metres.
Weather
Cloudy.

Thursday 28 January
Winds
Southeasterly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 2 metres, tending southeasterly 2 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Cloudy.


Super tiny this morning

Posted on January 25th, 2021 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Very quiet on the surf front this morning. The NE’r didn’t really kick in hard yesterday and so this morning’s residual NE wind bump wasn’t looking all that impressive at Dee Why. Swell at sea was 1.8 metres from the NE, but with a period of only 6-7 seconds. The Bureau says we’ll have 15-25 kts of NE this afternoon, so at least it shouldn’t be any smaller tomorrow morning and in the meantime, there might be some scrappy onshore fun later today. In case you were wondering, tide as high at 0645 and will be back to low at 1335. Weather should be mostly sunny as we head to a high of 32C along the coast. Water is a very temperate 24C.
Go well with your Monday and take the mask, the virus could still be lurking as viral fragments were found in sewerage tests at both North Head and Warriewood yesterday.

Maybe knee high at best along the beach at 0800

Mares’ tails above the beaches

Weather Situation
A slow-moving high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge to the northern New south Wales coast. The high is expected to remain dominant in the region until Tuesday, when it looks set to weaken and allow a stronger trough to move through southern and central waters.

Forecast for Monday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Tuesday 26 January
Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres by early evening.
Weather
Sunny.

Wednesday 27 January
Winds
North to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots at first, shifting southerly during the morning then tending southeasterly during the evening.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres developing during the afternoon and evening.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly 1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon or evening.
Weather
Cloudy.


Little waves for a very warm day

Posted on January 24th, 2021 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
A warm and hazy start to Sydney as we head to a high of 33c along the coast. Heaps of folks in the water at Dee Why by 0800 chasing the waist to maybe occasionally chest plus waves. Tide was dropping to the low at 1245 and a light NNE wind was texturing up the surface – and the choppiness will only increase as the wind ramps up to 15-25 kts. Swell at sea was 1.75 metres at 7 seconds from the NE.
Go well with your Sunday and get into the 24C water if you can. Oh, and take the mask!

Waist to high on the sets

Optimists on the point

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge to the northern New south Wales coast. A weak trough is forecast to briefly affect southern waters later today. The high is expected to remain dominant in the region until Tuesday, when it looks set to weaken and allow a stronger trough to move through southern and central waters.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Sunny.

Monday 25 January
Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Tuesday 26 January
Winds
North to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Sunny.


Faded to small but not flat this morning

Posted on January 23rd, 2021 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Swell has died away overnight and is around the waist and a bit mark at the better exposures. Tide was high at 0500 and by 0630 the wind was 5-15 kts from the south, so the surface was texturing up rapidly. Swell at sea was coming from 156° at 12 seconds apart and with heights typically around 1.3 metres. Waves looked to be quite weak and soft everywhere, so take your most buoyant surf tool.
Outlook is for conditions to deteriorate as the day goes along and right now, Sunday’s shaping to be even smaller. The models are pointing a small improvement on Monday and with luck it’ll be similar, if not a touch better on Tuesday.
Go well and pack the mask!

Action near the Pole

Kiddies Krew bogging along on the tinies

Choppy, fat and tiny at Long Reef

Small and soft at Surfrider Gardens

Quiet at Northy

Weather Situation
Moderate to fresh, occasionally strong, north to northeasterly winds are expected to predominate along the coastal waters during the coming days as a slow-moving high pressure system remains over the Tasman Sea. However, a weak trough bringing a southerly change to southern and central parts of the coast will stall this morning then weaken in the afternoon, allowing northeasterly winds return to those parts of the coast by Sunday morning.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 25 knots at first offshore tending southerly 10 to 15 knots inshore before dawn. Winds becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon then increasing to 15 to 25 knots in the late afternoon and evening.
Seas
1 to 2 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Sunday 24 January
Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Monday 25 January
Winds
North to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.


Solid for the early

Posted on January 22nd, 2021 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,
Still some swell around, but definitely smaller and the wait for sets is really stretching out – which isn’t great for the crowded spots like the point, or the naturally inconsistent place like Longy. Wind was light before 0800 when I grabbed the pics, but the NE was beginning to come up and before long it’ll be 15-25 kts which will severely limit surf options. Wave faces at best exposures were still solidly overhead, but the Bureau says it’ll gradually get smaller. Out at sea the swell was 2 metres at 12 seconds from 158°.
Wondering about the weekend prospects? The Mighty Goat has all the answers!
Go well, and hope you get lucky if you get in!

Super busy at the point

Fishermans

Longy

Longy

Weather Situation
Moderate to fresh, occasionally strong, north to northeasterly winds are expected to predominate along the coastal waters during the coming days as a slow-moving high pressure system remains over the Tasman Sea. However, a weak trough is expected to bring a brief southerly change to the southern coast on Friday, extending to central parts of the coast on Saturday, before northeasterly winds return to those parts of the coast on Sunday.

Forecast for Friday until midnight
Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Sunny morning. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening.
Caution
Surf conditions may be more powerful than they appear and are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Saturday 23 January
Winds
Northwest to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots shifting southeast to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots in the morning, then turning north to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.

Sunday 24 January
Winds
North to northeasterly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on January 21st, 2021 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 21 January 2021: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Surf Outlook

Over the last coupla days, all TG could see was white water and onshores… and more whitewater and onshores… so like most people, he did other things.

Looks like conditions should slowly ease back to more Human and Goat friendly conditions over the next coupla days, but small to medium waves should hang around – in various wind conditions > with changes in wave direction ~ over the coming week.

So there should be plenty of options for your water based exercise and physical and mental excitations.

TG doesn’t know what that word means, but he heard it in a Beach Boys song some time ago so he thinks it must have something to do with the surf.

Friday: Easing back somewhat from Thursday arvo, but still in the upper end of the 1-2 metre range, going down slightly thru the day, and still with some oomph behind it

Saturday: 1 – 1+ metres East/ North East

Sunday: coming up a little in the 1-2 metre range North East

Monday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range North East

Tuesday: ditto for Australia Day

Wednesday: ditto East North East

Thursday: ditto East

Happy Straya Day on Chewsday >>> Have a good one everyone!!

Stay Safe in and out of the water.

TG.

Up in the Air

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jan 21 06:00:00 2021 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Jan 21 07:30:00 2021

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.373,151.216,8

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 23

Tides

Click to access tide-tables-2020-2021.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Clear.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Clear. Winds northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h.

Large and powerful surf conditions in the afternoon and evening are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Friday 22 January

Summary
Min 18
Max 31
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Medium (40%) chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Winds north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light early in the morning then becoming northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h in the early afternoon.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon Location Min Max
Possible shower. Sydney 18 31
Possible shower. Penrith 16 36
Possible shower. Liverpool 16 35
Possible shower. Terrey Hills 16 31
Possible shower. Richmond 16 35
Possible shower. Parramatta 16 35
Possible shower. Campbelltown 15 35
Possible shower. Bondi 19 27

Saturday 23 January

Summary
Min 21
Max 30
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 25 km/h in the early afternoon then tending northeasterly in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Sunday 24 January

Summary
Min 22
Max 32
Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Hot and sunny. Winds north to northeasterly and light becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then increasing to 20 to 30 km/h during the afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Monday 25 January

Summary
Min 21
Max 32
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Hot and mostly sunny. Winds northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light during the morning then becoming northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h during the day.

Tuesday 26 January

Summary
Min 22
Max 34
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Hot and mostly sunny. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Winds north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h tending east to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 27 January

Summary
Min 21
Max 28
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. Winds southerly 15 to 20 km/h turning southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Thursday 28 January

Summary
Min 20
Max 27
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. Winds southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h tending easterly later.


Big morning

Posted on January 21st, 2021 in At large.

Hello Friends,
Solid swell, went to take pictures and discovered it was busy with only sporadic worthy sections. 30 people at Dee Why point and close to 40 at Collaroy (with another dozen at the Kick). Sets were maxing out Dee Why point and it was a challenge to make them even on the cleanest ones. Size at Dee Why saw 3-4 metre faces on bombs and 1.5 2 m on the rest, while at Collaroy bombs had around 2.5 m faces but mostly was in the 1-1.5 metre range. Swell at sea was around 3 metres at 14 seconds from the SSE.
A few pics…

Right board for the inside waves at Collaroy

Bomb set at The Kick

Kneelo, The Kick

Arcing on the fattening shoulder

No takers

Dee Why green

Bombie, bombing

Weather Situation
A high pressure system is centred near Tasmania, while a deep low pressure system has crossed the southern Tasman Sea. The winds between these systems has developed a powerful southerly swell along the New South Wales coast. By Thursday evening, the high pressure system will reach the Tasman Sea where it will remain slow moving and cause winds to shift northeasterly for the coming days. A weak trough may bring a brief southerly change to the southern half of the coast on Friday.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds
Variable below 10 knots becoming northerly 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day then tending northeasterly 15 to 25 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres in the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, reaching up to 4 metres offshore in the early morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Friday 22 January
Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2.5 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Saturday 23 January
Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots turning south to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots in the early morning. Winds shifting northeasterly 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon.
Seas
1.5 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
1st Swell
Southerly around 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Sunny.
.


Some size but not much quality

Posted on January 20th, 2021 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Update: been out on the bike checking the surf and have really only seen people in the water at Collaroy (micro, mobbed), whiterock (long waits not really doing it longboarding inside sorta ok), and Dee Why point. A dozen people in the water at 1300, lumpy and sloppy with irregular head high sets that weren’t always makeable.

Log at the point

Earlier

Wind was SSE 10-15 kts as an overcast Wednesday got started along the beaches. Swell at sea ranged from 2.6-3.2 metres at 14-15 seconds from 158°. Apart from Collaroy and the lagoon entrances, Beachwatch says water is unlikely to be polluted and that ocean temp is 23C.
As the pictures show, there’s definitely swell getting into Dee Why, but it’s looking fat and sloppy even though it was approaching the 0810 low when I grabbed the snaps. These junky conditions look like prevailing all day, but tomorrow the wind should be a bit better, so maybe the waves will look a little more interesting. Plus it should be sunnier.
Have yourself a great Wednesday everyone and stay safe by masking up when you’re inside.

Set hits up the beach toward the pole

Soft set at the point 0745

No Mans set

Weather Situation
A high pressure system is centred west of Tasmania, while a deep low lies over the southern Tasman Sea. Between these systems, southerly winds are affecting the New South Wales coast, with a powerful swell developing. During the day, the high will drift slowly east while maintaining a ridge along the New South Wales coast, and is expected to be over the Tasman Sea by Thursday. This movement will be accompanied by a gradual shift to northeasterly winds over most waters. A weak trough may bring a brief southerly change to the far south on Friday.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning southeasterly below 10 knots during the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 4 to 5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Thursday 21 January
Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening.
Swell
Southerly 3 to 4 metres, decreasing to 3 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Friday 22 January
Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the morning.
Weather
Mostly sunny morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.