"Stay happy and you'll be perfectly fine" - Jack Norris

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 17 June 2021: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

When I asked him for the surf forecast, TG said: “Do you think I’m a mind reader??!”

(He is getting so cheeky lately – I think the cold weather is affected his normally pleasant – ha! – disposition, as well as his brain).

He was of course referring to reading the mind of Mother Nature, who is in the process of deciding what to do with a Low down off the South Coast, according to BoM (although they don’t say so in so many words ūüôā

Anywho, you all know how the BoM supercomputers forecast the likely tracks of East Coast Lows, and thus the direction of winds and waves they produce.. Well they can sometimes change behaviour, slwoing down, speeding up, changing direction, and hence the wind and the waves expected form them can change too.

Below is based on TG’s current expectations.¬† If Mother Nature changes her mind, then it’s all up for grabs. Just so you know…

Nothing was showing as the sun went down tonight>>>

And TG doesn’t expect there’ll be a lot showing in the morning. Maybe a little something in the arvo. After that…well…

Friday: smallish at first – 1 metre or less at dead South spots, then maybe a metre or bit more later

Saturday: should be coming up based on current expectations (see above), but let’s not get carried away with size at this stage because TG thinks there’ll be a fair bit of SW in it…could be say in the 3-4 metre range at dead South spots on the open coast

Sunday: let’s say ditto at first, then in the arvo more could come in if it turns more South East

Monday: should be easing to say 2ish metres East South East

Tuesday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range East South East

Wednesday: easing back in the 1-2 metre range Eastish

Thursday: somewhere in the 1-2 metre range East South East

And it’s all dependent on the Low~~~~~~~~~~~~

Be flexible, be adaptive, be warm, be safe, be nice to each other.

TG.

Up in the Air

MSLP Analysis for Thu Jun 17 06:00:00 2021 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Jun 17 07:30:00 2021

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.850/151.220?-34.368,151.221,8,m:cIKaknd

Down in the Sea

Water temp has dropped below 20>>> 19 or so.

http://www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/forecasts/idyoc300.shtml?region=NSW&forecast=SSTCur

Tides

https://roads-waterways.transport.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2020-2021.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Mostly clear.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly clear. Winds westerly 15 to 25 km/h turning northwesterly in the evening.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Friday 18 June

Summary
Min 9
Max 19
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

The chance of fog in the west in the early morning. Mostly sunny day. Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the late afternoon and evening. Winds northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h turning westerly 25 to 35 km/h in the morning.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Saturday 19 June

Summary
Min 11
Max 18
Showers. Windy.
Possible rainfall: 10 to 15 mm
Chance of any rain: 95% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers along the coastal fringe, high (70%) chance elsewhere. Gusty winds in the late morning and afternoon. Winds southwesterly 30 to 45 km/h.

Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Sunday 20 June

Summary
Min 12
Max 18
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 6 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. Winds south to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Monday 21 June

Summary
Min 11
Max 18
Showers easing.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h tending southerly during the day then becoming light during the afternoon.

Tuesday 22 June

Summary
Min 11
Max 18
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds.

Wednesday 23 June

Summary
Min 10
Max 18
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Light winds.

Thursday 24 June

Summary
Min 10
Max 19
Showers developing.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers, most likely later in the day. Light winds