Posts in Goat’s Forecast

The Goat’s Christmas Surf Forecast

Posted on December 21st, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 21 December 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Will it be cold? Or will it be hot??

Will the surf be up? Or will it not???

Should I eat a little? Or should I eat the lot??

Should I go for a surf? Or stay in the cot???

There’ll be a bit of everything for you in the lead up to, during, and after Christmas… but not necessarily in the order you might desire them.

For the surf: in short it’ll be mostly small, except for a small pop up surf day on Christmas day !!! Yay, you sayl

But that looks like being accompanied by a cool southerly wind with occasional showers …

So if you want to… after seeing what Santa has left you under the Christmas tree, you can flail about in the wind and the water on your new toys without concern that they or you are not performing (“because of the conditions”), before getting stuck into the full traditional Christmas day of overeating, then zonking out. Perfect.

Friday: 1 metre or less South East

Saturday: pretty much ditto

Sunday: about the same but East North East. Bureau says chance of Thunderstorms so even though it’ll be a hot one, don’t stay in or on the ocean, or out in the open at the beach if they are near you

Monday, Chrissy Day: up, with wind and a shower or two, into the 1-2 metre range at places open to dead South

Tuesday, Boxing Day: down to 1 metre or less dead South, with wind and a shower or two, so you can relax some more

Wednesday: maybe 1 metre or so East/South East

Thursday: about 1 metre East

Have a Great Christmas!!.. Try not to overdo it.

And stay safe, in and out of the water.

TG

In the Ocean

Water temp has settled down to a comfy 21, 22

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

In the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Dec 21 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Dec 21 04:30:00 2017

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 24
Shower or two.
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Mostly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, becoming less likely in the evening. Winds southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the evening.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Shower or two.Sydney24
Shower or two.Penrith27
Shower or two.Liverpool26
Shower or two.Terrey Hills23
Shower or two.Richmond27
Shower or two.Parramatta25
Shower or two.Campbelltown26
Shower or two.Bondi21

 

Friday 22 December

Summary
Min 20
Max 26
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then tending northeasterly in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Saturday 23 December

Summary
Min 20
Max 29
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny morning. Slight (20%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Sunday 24 December

Summary
Min 22
Max 33
Shower or two developing.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Hot. Mostly sunny morning. Medium (60%) chance of showers in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon. Winds northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h tending southeast to southwesterly during the afternoon then tending northwest to northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Monday 25 December

Summary
Min 19
Max 22
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm during the morning. Winds southerly 25 to 35 km/h.

Tuesday 26 December

Summary
Min 18
Max 23
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. Winds southeast to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h tending southeasterly during the morning.

Wednesday 27 December

Summary
Min 19
Max 25
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on December 14th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 14 December 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

School hols have started for some, and start for the rest from tomorrow.

So mums and dads want to know for the week ahead…

Can I say: Go surfing! to get the kids out of the house!?… Or even: Can I go surfing myself!!??

Well, make of this what you will… But make sure the kids…and you… stay safe in the surf.

Friday: despite a southerly change expected by the Bureau overnight, there should still be waves in the 1-2 metre range East North East , which of course will be poor quality at places open to the south but kids never notice that

Saturday: dittoish re wave size and direction

Sunday: down a little in the 1-2 metre range East North East, feeling the effects of more southerly wind

Monday: ditto re waves

Tuesday: dittoish, more Nor East

Wednesday: ditto East North East

Thursday: smaller East North East

Stay calm in the Lead up to Christmas Spirit.  No more carpark parking rage eh Col? Stay cool … Relaax …Everyone. Have fun! Or Else!!

TG.

Up up in the Sky

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Dec 14 03:30:00 2017

MSLP Analysis for Thu Dec 14 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Winds

https://www.windyty.com/

Down down in the Sea

Water temp was beautiful today (Thursday) at around 22, despite the persistent Summer Noreasters we’ve had with the nice weather… it hasn’t been consistently NE though.  If the wind was going to continue strong from the NE for another day or so I’d say we could get some cold water.  But the Bureau is forecasting a southerly change, then a bit of chopping and changing wind directions, so the water should stay warm enough.

Some friends asked me the other day, what is the technical reason the water can get colder in Summer?

Technical reason!?  Why ask me??… 🙂

To help you all out, let’s see how the experts explain it:

http://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/1244/the-ekman-transport-effectcold-water-upwelling-on-australian-coastlines/

My Simple Rule of Thumb for Sydney and most of the NSW coastline: After 3 days of Strong Nor Easters expect Cold, Green, Darker, Plankton laden, Uncomfortable/Hypothermia-inducing-if-immersed-in-it-for-too-long, Cold Water.

image

Tides

Watch out for those shallow low tides. We don’t want you to become a paraplegic or worse from misjudging a wave or from a dumping shorebreak for that matter.

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 32
Afternoon cloud developing.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Hot inland. Partly cloudy. The slight chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and early evening. Winds west to northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h, with northeasterly winds 20 to 30 km/h near the coast extending inland during the late afternoon and evening.

Fire Danger – Severe

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 5:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Afternoon cloud developing.Sydney32
Hot. Afternoon cloud developing.Penrith42
Hot. Afternoon cloud developing.Liverpool41
Hot. Afternoon cloud developing.Terrey Hills36
Hot. Afternoon cloud developing.Richmond41
Hot. Afternoon cloud developing.Parramatta41
Hot. Afternoon cloud developing.Campbelltown41
Windy. Afternoon cloud developing.Bondi30

 

Friday 15 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 26
Cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. The chance of a thunderstorm in the outer west in the afternoon and early evening. Winds south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming southerly 25 to 35 km/h before dawn then becoming light in the early afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Saturday 16 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 32
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Hot. Mostly sunny morning. Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the west in the afternoon and evening. Winds northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h tending northeast to southeasterly during the day then tending south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Sunday 17 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 26
Cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Winds southerly 15 to 25 km/h turning southeasterly during the morning.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Monday 18 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 30
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers later in the day. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Tuesday 19 December

Summary
Min 22
Max 30
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower during the morning. Winds south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light during the morning then becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 20 December

Summary
Min 24
Max 34
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Hot. Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers, most likely later in the day. Light winds.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on December 7th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 7 December 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

It’s a very busy time of the year… Yesterday I saw every break from the Bower to Pittwater as I drove past them… to do other stuff.  Pre-storm they were all the same… A Mess…. with individual variations from A Big Mess to a Small Mess. So when I saw all white water this morning I assumed it was same again, and I had other things to do anyway. Apparently some lucky people were able to get in the water and had some fun waves.

Not sure the waves and younger more energetic crowds would have suited me anyway.  It’s a very busy time of the year…in and out of the water.  All I can say to you is, that if you were or are able to get in the water at the right time, you either don’t have any responsibilities… Or you’re irresponsible!!!

I won’t comment further, as I still have other things to do.  Comforting me a little is that conditions will be quite changeable over coming days, so you’ll have to be on your toes.  I see lots of green cold water patches out to sea among the blue patches.

There should be wWaves of varying size, quality, and wave direction and wind direction all week, but at least there’ll be waves of some sort at the right time, right place…

Friday: still in the upper end of the 1-2 metre range, East, possibly with some bigger sets

Saturday: southerly type winds should know it down a bit but still in the 1-2 metre range and swinging more South East, with some sets at dead South places

Sunday: down to more manageable levels for the average punter, in the lower end of the 1-2 metre range East South East, with occasional slightly bigger sets from the East

Monday: about 1 metre or so SE with some mild sets from the East

Tuesday: about 1 metre or so, let’s say Eastish

Wednesday: 1-1+ etres North East

Thursday: ditto.

Do your best to have fun, and be responsible!  Stay safe.

And I’ve gotta go now!!!

In the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Dec  7 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Dec  7 04:30:00 2017

https://www.windyty.com/

In the Sea

Water temp is currently 20, but was only 16 a few days ago,  There might be more cold/warmer currents ahead for a bit.

 

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

 

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Clear.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Clear. Winds northwest to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h tending northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:20 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Friday 8 December

Summary
Min 20
Max 25
Showers. Possible storm.
Possible rainfall: 4 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm, most likely in the afternoon. Winds northwest to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the morning then becoming south to southeasterly 25 to 35 km/h in the early afternoon and strengthening to 25 to 35 km/h near the coast from the late afternoon.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

 

Saturday 9 December

Summary
Min 18
Max 24
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming tending east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Sunday 10 December

Summary
Min 17
Max 26
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Monday 11 December

Summary
Min 18
Max 27
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Tuesday 12 December

Summary
Min 19
Max 29
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 13 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 32
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Thursday 14 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 32
Possible afternoon shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Hot in the west. Medium (40%) chance of showers, mostly in the afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning then tending westerly during the day.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on November 30th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 30 November 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

First of all… I said to Waz I had to do a forecast tonight… He said, So you just cut and paste?…

Cut and Paste??!!

The surf forecasts are all TG’s original, ir-responsible, work.

Hours of detailed analysis of lots of complicated stuff go into putting together the surf forecast.  TG constantly strives for precision and perfection . The typing alone takes forever, using two fingers.

Waz, Read this>>>>The Goat FAQs… FYI>>>>

The Goat FAQ

Now, the Surf Forecast for the first week of Summer

There should be some fun, rideable waves at the right tides (generally lower tides), at the right places, most of the coming week…

Don’t expect too much and you won’t be disappointed…

Friday: should be a little bigger than it was today –say around the mid point of the 1-2 metre range East North East

Saturday: dittoish

Sunday: same again, but maybe a tad bigger

Monday: down into the lower end of the 1-2 metre range East North East

Tuesday: ditto East

Wednesday: ditto

Thursday: and again, East North East

See if you can find where that was cut and paste from.

Any cut and paste bits are from the sources identified below….

Enjoy!

TG

The Sky is Blue

How fascinating is that 1004 isobar below, tracking along the northern coastline, where the land meets the sea.

MSLP Analysis for Thu Nov 30 06:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Nov 30 08:30:00 2017

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-33.883,151.156,5

The Sea is too

Water temp is still bouncing around from day to day as the East Coast Current swirls down the coast and gets disturbed by days and days of Noreasters and the occasional short Southerly spell. So tomorrow, the next day or the next, might be 18 …or might be 22. You’ll just have to stick your big toe in the water to find out each day.

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Mostly clear.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Friday 1 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 28
Possible afternoon shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.2 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the afternoon. Winds northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the morning then becoming northeasterly 25 to 35 km/h in the middle of the day.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 8:20 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

 

Saturday 2 December

Summary
Min 22
Max 29
Rain at times.
Possible rainfall: 4 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of rain, most likely in the late afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Winds north to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h increasing to 30 km/h before turning northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:20 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Sunday 3 December

Summary
Min 21
Max 29
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers, most likely in the evening. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h tending west to northwesterly during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Monday 4 December

Summary
Min 19
Max 24
Showers increasing.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming east to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Tuesday 5 December

Summary
Min 19
Max 23
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 4 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning then tending east to southeasterly during the day.

Wednesday 6 December

Summary
Min 19
Max 25
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds.

Thursday 7 December

Summary
Min 18
Max 25
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on November 23rd, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 23 November 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Mother Nature has heard you all cry out: Onshore! again! day after day.

But she’s misheard that as: Encore! again!  The wind has drowned you out while she’s conducting her symphony of the elements.   So could you please all speak more distinctly in future.

In the meantime, she’s already programmed in a bit more of the same, thinking that’s what you want.

With the onshores has come some marginal to tiny surf… But some pretty fabulous weather, and the water has warmed back up a little.  It ain’t all that bad.

If you’ve been able to jag a wave at the right tide, then stay alert and grab it when you can.

The surf outlook for the week ahead:

Friday: around 1 metre or so East

Saturday: around 1 metre or so East North East

Sunday: ever so slightly up into the low end 1-2 metre range East North East

Monday: somewhere in lower end of the 1-2 metre range East North East

Tuesday: ditto

Wednesday: somewhere in the low end of the 1-2 metre range North East

Thursday: ditto.

Happy Thanksgiving to all our American friends, here or there, and to everyone who likes a good turkey!

Heard of a worthy cause this morning … Saturday 5 k walk to raise money for research to cure brain cancer in young people. 8.30am registration at Shelley Beach Manly for pleasant walk to North Curl Curl.

So the surf’s not perfect. There’s still an awful lot to be thankful for.

Stay well.. Have fun!

TG.

High in the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Nov 23 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Nov 23 04:30:00 2017

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-33.883,151.167,5

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 19, 20…still swirling around

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Clear.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Mostly clear. Slight (20%) chance of a shower in the outer west early this evening. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Friday 24 November

Summary
Min 18
Max 27
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Slight (30%) chance of a shower in the west in the afternoon and early evening. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn then becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Saturday 25 November

Summary
Min 19
Max 27
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Sunday 26 November

Summary
Min 19
Max 27
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the west in the afternoon. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Sun protection recommended from 8:30 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Monday 27 November

Summary
Min 20
Max 27
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Light winds.

Tuesday 28 November

Summary
Min 20
Max 25
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm later in the day. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 29 November

Summary
Min 20
Max 25
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 4 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm later in the day. Light winds.

Thursday 30 November

Summary
Min 20
Max 27
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm later in the day. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on November 16th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 16 November 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

We’ve had some fab sunny days, but with onshores and small waves. There are some days of cloudy sky, much needed showers ahead and Noreasters are expected by the Bureau till Sunday, when the wind will turn more Easterly again, with onshores right through till Thursday.

The good news for those who don’t mind onshore wind spraying the sea into your eyes, ears and mouth or just keeping your body temperature down below comfortable levels when you’re wet, is that the surf should pick up a little with the wind. That’s “up a little” speaking relatively, if you start from “tiny” today.  For everyone else not at work or school who find onshores just plain annoying, it looks looks like jobs time again, or walkies, or bikies etc.

Surf outlook:

Friday: slight uptick from today as the Noreaster keeps pushing along, say 1- 1+ metres East North East

Saturday: up more in the 1-2 metre range East North East, somewhat bigger and windier at southern ends of beaches

Sunday: in the 1-2 metre range East, with East winds

Monday: down a little in the 1-2 metre range East

Tuesday: ostensibly (big word !) about the same, but with longer period sets that may be bigger

Wednesday: down again, around 1-1+ metres

Thursday: coming up a little in the 1-2 metre range East/South

Enjoy whatever you’re doing!

TG

Up in the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Nov 16 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Nov 16 05:30:00 2017

Winds

https://www.windy.com/-33.855/151.216?-34.889,151.216,7

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 19 at the moment, having crept down a little today after several days of Noreasters.

 

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Possible shower.
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the west. Winds northeasterly 25 to 35 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Friday 17 November

Summary
Min 19
Max 24
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 6 to 15 mm
Chance of any rain: 95% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

 

Saturday 18 November

Summary
Min 19
Max 23
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 4 to 10 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h tending easterly 15 to 20 km/h in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Sunday 19 November

Summary
Min 18
Max 24
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds easterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Monday 20 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 24
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then becoming light during the afternoon.

Tuesday 21 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 23
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. Light winds.

Wednesday 22 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 24
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Thursday 23 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 25
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on November 9th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf forecast issued Thursday 9 November 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Waves of some sort all week. Light winds too but mostly light onshore for several days courtesy of a couple of big Highs slowly meandering across the bottom of the continent. If you don’t mind light onshores the surf could be sort of ok at places open to South swell where there are still some banks left after all that large messiness, which has only started to ease back today.

Over the next couple of days there will still be swell arriving from way down South. Smaller waves have started to settle down on their journey up the coast and joined themselves  together to form swells, so you can expect some long periods between sets, even though it’ll be mostly in the 1-2 metre range.  The BoM has a couple of warnings in the weather below

Friday 10/11: in the 1-2 metre range dead South, with sets, eased back from today early on but then expect some larger sets later

Saturday 11/11: up in the 1-2 metre range, with sets, dead South

Sunday 12/11: down a bit in the 1-2 metre range dead South, but likely there’ll still be sets

Monday 13/11: lower end of the 1-2 metre range but with sets, South East

Tuesday 14/11: low end of the 1-2 metre range East South East

Wednesday 15/11: down more to around 1 metre or so East/ North East

Thursday 16/11: 1 metre or so East/ North East.

And a couple of notices if I may.. I have your attention anyway …

On Sunday 12 November, Avalon Beach SLSC will be holding a Fun Gala Day to raise awareness of mental health issues and raise funds for Lifeline.  It’ll take place from 9am to around 11am, involving all ages of club members from Nippers through to Masters as teams in water and beach events (replacing regular Nippers events).  The Club will set up water event areas taking account of all beachgoers, boardriders and ensure a safe flag area for swimmers. If you’re planning to visit Avalon on Sunday please be aware and understand these areas will be subject to surf conditions on the day, sandbank locations, and the rocks in the middle of the beach. Everyone is welcome to watch and to make a donation to Lifeline in collection tins which will be at the surf club and at the Max surf lookout in the middle of the beach.

Also on Sunday Ken Davo Davidson, one of the surf club’s original toothpick board riders will be turning 90.  Everyone is welcome to wish Ken happy birthday with a coldie at the club from 5pm when the bar will be open to everyone, members and visitors, whether you know him or not!

And Don’t Forget Remembrance Day on the 11th of the 11th (Saturday)

Have fun!

TG

Up in the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Nov  9 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Nov  9 05:30:00 2017

Wind

https://www.windy.com/?-33.817,151.201,5

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 19.

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Clear.
Chance of any rain: 0% 

Sydney area

Clear. Winds easterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Friday 10 November

Summary
Min 14
Max 23
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Early fog patches in the west. Light winds.

Surf conditions in the late afternoon and evening may be more powerful than they appear and are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing and swimming.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

 

Saturday 11 November

Summary
Min 16
Max 23
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower in the morning and early afternoon. Light winds.

Surf conditions may be more powerful than they appear and are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing and swimming.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Sunday 12 November

Summary
Min 16
Max 22
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Patchy morning fog in the west. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:40 am to 4:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

Monday 13 November

Summary
Min 14
Max 23
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Tuesday 14 November

Summary
Min 15
Max 23
Morning shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely during the morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Light winds.

Wednesday 15 November

Summary
Min 15
Max 25
Sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Thursday 16 November

Summary
Min 17
Max 26
Showers increasing.
Possible rainfall: 3 to 8 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day


TG’s Surf Forecast

Posted on November 2nd, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 2 November 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

After the wind and the cold and the waves that weren’t attractive to almost everyone from the Low that formed down south, there’ll be a short intermission, giving the impression that things are starting to look up, but then… And then… Sigh …Can’t say there’s much on offer for the average punters in the coming week. When/if it’s rideable or there are banks at some sheltered south spot, it’ll probably be best left to the keen, fit, experienced, or desperate.  Others may find it more satisfying to get back to those jobs around the house.

Friday: starting to calm down from today’s messiness, say around the upper end of the 1-2 metre range, with bigger sets occasionally, South East, probably still bumpy

Saturday: after an expected southerly change Friday evening, it’ll start to come up again in the 1-2 metre range dead South but not formed swell to get into protected corners, just windy messy

Sunday: upper end of the 1-2 metre range dead South/ South East with sets, maybe into S corners

Monday: around 2, 2+ metres East South East, and there’s another Low expected to form off the coast

Tuesday: say in the 2-3 metre range early on, then easing back

Wednesday: 2-2 + metres dead South with some solid sets

Thursday: 2-3 metres dead South

If you’re keen for all that…Yay for you..

If that’s not entirely what you’d call fun surf, then be content knowing you’re not alone 🙂

Keep smiling

TG

In the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Nov  2 06:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Nov  2 07:30:00 2017

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-33.881,151.180,5

In the Sea

Water temp is around 20.  Whales are still heading down the coast in small groups, not far out.

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Winds easterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

Friday 3 November

Summary
Min 16
Max 26
Late shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 60% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers in the late afternoon and evening, with the risk of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming westerly 15 to 25 km/h in the afternoon, with northeasterly seabreezes developing near the coast. A gusty southerly change 25 to 35 km/h in the evening.

Fire Danger – High

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 10 [Very High]

 

Saturday 4 November

Summary
Min 15
Max 19
Showers easing.
Possible rainfall: 8 to 15 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers, mostly in the morning. Winds south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

Sunday 5 November

Summary
Min 15
Max 20
A few showers.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 5 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

Monday 6 November

Summary
Min 16
Max 24
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 15 to 30 mm
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers. Winds northwest to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h tending southerly 20 to 30 km/h during the afternoon.

Tuesday 7 November

Summary
Min 14
Max 21
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 70% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers, mostly during the morning. Light winds becoming southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 8 November

Summary
Min 13
Max 20
Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Thursday 9 November

Summary
Min 14
Max 22
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

 

 

 


The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on October 26th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 26 October 2016: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

The surf’s been so so, weather’s been up and down…Perfect conditions for catching up on those odd jobs around the house.

The good news is…

If you haven’t finished the jobs you’ve started, there should be plenty of opportunities for you this week.

Friday: in the 1-2 metre range East South East and windblown

Saturday: in the 1-2 metre range East South East, light winds in the morning, NorEaster in the arvo

Sunday: 1 metre or so East

Monday: 1 metre or less North East

Tuesday: up into the 1-2 metre range at dead South places

Wednesday: down a bit, 1 metre or less at dead South places

Thursday: 1 metre or less East.

Let’s see.. Paint, brushes//And if conditions happen to look OK sometime, the painting will always keep till later 🙂

TG.

Sky, Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Oct 26 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Oct 26 05:30:00 2017

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-33.893,151.204,5

Sea, Sea

Water temp is around 19, 20.

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Showers. Storm likely.
Chance of any rain: 90% 

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers. Thunderstorm likely, possibly severe. Winds south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

Friday 27 October

Summary
Min 17
Max 23
Showers clearing.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 6 mm
Chance of any rain: 80% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers in the morning and early afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and early afternoon. Winds southerly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the evening.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

 

Saturday 28 October

Summary
Min 16
Max 27
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h for a period in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 4:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

Sunday 29 October

Summary
Min 19
Max 29
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h tending west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day then turning north to northeasterly during the afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

Monday 30 October

Summary
Min 19
Max 30
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h shifting southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h during the afternoon.

Tuesday 31 October

Summary
Min 14
Max 20
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Winds southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h tending southeast to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning.

Wednesday 1 November

Summary
Min 14
Max 22
Shower or two. Windy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
Chance of any rain: 50% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers. Winds southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h turning southerly 25 to 40 km/h during the morning.

Thursday 2 November

Summary
Min 16
Max 23
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Winds southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h tending southerly 25 to 35 km/h during the morning.

 


TG’s Surf Forecast

Posted on October 19th, 2017 in Goat's Forecast.

Surf forecast issued Thursday 19 October 2017: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

Fab weather today… Sunny, 26, Noreaster pushing in some waves at the right places/ right tides.

But if you’re making hay, then you might want to get stuck into it, because the Bureau is saying there’s a 100 % chance it’ll get wet tomorrow!  That’s a pretty big call.

Meanwhile, what’ll it do for the surf??  In the morning it’ll still be NE windswell, then as the forecast Southerly arrives it’ll be all chopped up and messy, then later when you’re going to bed it’ll start to pick up a bit. But don’t fret…Then it’ll settle into a windy dead southerly swell day and you might decide to stay in bed.

Maybe come out of hibernation Sunday, but with onshore conditions making it pretty ordinary you might want to have a fallback activity to surfing.

If you’re lucky enough there might be some little waves and better weather during the week.

Friday: in the 1-2 metre range from the North East, ahead of a Southerly change that’ll just mess things up

Saturday: upper end of the 1-2 metre range, choppy and windy and cool at dead South spots

Sunday: lower end of the 1-2 metre range South East

Monday: ditto

Tuesday: about 1 metre or so South East

Wednesday: 1 metre or less South East

Thursday: ditto East.

Nice little story Don found here>>>

Hang ten (decades): Walter Munk, inventor of the surf forecast, turns 100

Have fun!

But not yet if you’re makin’ hay!

TG

Up in the Sky

MSLP Analysis for Thu Oct 19 00:00:00 2017 AUTC

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Oct 19 05:30:00 2017

Winds

https://www.windy.com/?-33.861,151.198,5

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 18 according to the MHL buoy but it’s warmer than that in the surf.  You can see from the BoM satellite pic: warm water (about 20) nearshore, then a cooler stretch (where the MHL buoy would be) then warmer water further out from that.  (No, the water isn’t really coloured yellow).

image

Tides

http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2017-2018.pdf

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Becoming cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Becoming cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of rain later tonight. Winds northeasterly 25 to 35 km/h decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

Friday 20 October

Summary
Min 18
Max 20
Rain. Becoming windy.
Possible rainfall: 15 to 25 mm
Chance of any rain: 100%

Sydney area

Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of rain, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Light winds becoming northwest to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the morning, then tending southerly 25 to 35 km/h in the middle of the day and reaching 35 to 45 km/h near the coast.

Fire Danger – Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 9:00 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

 

Saturday 21 October

Summary
Min 14
Max 20
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower along the coastal fringe in the morning afternoon. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h tending south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 3:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

Sunday 22 October

Summary
Min 13
Max 22
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower in the afternoon and evening. Light winds.

Sun protection recommended from 9:10 am to 3:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]

Monday 23 October

Summary
Min 15
Max 22
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 30% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.

Tuesday 24 October

Summary
Min 14
Max 26
Mostly sunny.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h tending east to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 25 October

Summary
Min 16
Max 28
Partly cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 mm
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds.

Thursday 26 October

Summary
Min 20
Max 31
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 40% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers later in the day. Winds north to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h shifting south to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.


 

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