Posts in Surf Reports

Cold and windy with swell

Posted on August 12th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

It looked to be in the chest to shoulder plus range at Dee Why when I first checked it around 0800. Sets looked to be reasonably frequent too. The beach still seems to be mostly offering shutdowns. Wind was out of the west at 14-18 kts and air temp was about 14C, so if you’re in the 17C water, you’re actually a bit warmer than if you were just standing in your wetty watching from the beach. The MHL buoy for Sydney is offline at the moment, but looking at the data north and south of it, we can infer that swell at sea is probably a couple metres and coming from the south at about 11 seconds apart.

The Bureau informs us that the wind will swing around to the south later and that the swell should roll along at the current intensity – more or less – through to Wednesday morning-ish. Wind should be SW tomorrow and light and variable Wednesday. Thereafter the models are pointing to small to flat right into next week. So, sounds like the plan is to hit it in the next three days if you can.

Have a top old Monday everyone!

Ok size but shutting down in the beachy

Set arrives at the point

 

Weather Situation

A trough of low pressure associated with a complex low pressure system over the southeastern Tasman Sea is brushing the coast, bringing strong south to southwesterly winds across the coast. The winds should ease from this afternoon as a high pressure system over the Bight slowly drifts east. Winds will become light over the coming days as the high pressure system crosses the state during the midweek period.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast

Winds
South to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots at first, easing to southerly 15 to 25 knots by the late morning, tending south to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 to 2 metres around midday, then decreasing below 1 metre later in the evening.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm during the morning and afternoon.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Tuesday 13 August

Winds
South to southwesterly 10 to 20 knots, decreasing to about 10 knots in the late afternoon.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 2.5 to 3 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Wednesday 14 August

Winds
Variable below 10 knots.
Seas
Below 0.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

 


Waves for Sunday

Posted on August 11th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Nice and chilly this morning, but as of 0730 the WNW wind wasn’t going as hard as anticipated and swell was showing. It’s probably around the 2 metre mark at sea and coming from the SSE at 12 seconds or so. That means it’s just grazing Dee Why point with the odd knee high thing along the rocks, but up the beach from about the Lagoon to Longy bombies, it’s delivering shoulder plus faces on the sets.
There’s a gale warning (see below) for 20-30 kts of westerly, so conditions are likely to get more challenging as the day progresses. Swell’s due to build across the next 24 hours, particularly as the wind comes around to the south tomorrow.
Tide was high at 0520 and is currently running out to the low at 1055. We should see a high of 16 and skies are set to be partly cloudy. Water temp has cogged down a degree or so and is now 17C according to the good folk from Beachwatch.
From here it looks as though we should have waves through to Wednesday.
Have fun!

Sets are into the head high range as of 0740

Near the Pole 0740

What we do…

Two in the sky

Lines starting to show at the point 0725

The lugga crew at it early

Weather Situation

A complex low pressure system to the south is sending a series of strong cold fronts sweeping across New South Wales, generating vigorous west to southwesterly winds over coastal areas. The last of these fronts is expected to clear the region early Monday, after which a high pressure system will drift across from the west, bringing a gradual return to light winds by mid-week.

Forecast for Sunday until midnight

Gale Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Westerly 20 to 30 knots, reaching 35 knots offshore during the morning, turning southwesterly during the afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Monday 12 August

Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Southerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching 30 knots during the morning, turning southwesterly 10 to 15 knots during the day.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres around midday, then decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by evening.
Swell
Southerly 3 to 4 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore in the morning and afternoon.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Tuesday 13 August

Winds
West to southwesterly about 10 knots becoming south to southeasterly during the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Tiny lines and too small to surf early

Posted on August 10th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

It’s snowing heavily down south and the air feels like it up here in Sydney. At 0700 the wind was 20-30 kts from the NW and swell was 1.4 metres from the SW, hence the lack of anything noteworthy along the beaches. As the Goat predicted, the roaring wind is holding any swell offshore. And the SW direction means most of it is heading off to northern New Zealand ande beyond.
Wind is going to stick around at this intensity and direction through tomorrow. Swell isn’t expected to do much today, but tomorrow the Bureau tells us toe expect it to build into the 2-3 metre range from the south. Again, the roaring wind could knock it down, so we’ll just have to see. I reckon Monday looks a better prospect as models show the wind moderating as the swell hangs in there.
Stay warm and catch you tomorrow!

Tiny lines at Dee Why beach 0650

A little more size up toward Longy

No dice at the point

Whipping offshore making the tiny line look heroic

Our star coming into view

Weather Situation
A complex low pressure system to the south is sending a series of strong cold fronts sweeping across New South Wales, generating vigorous westerly winds over coastal areas. The last of these fronts is expected to clear the region early Monday, after which a high pressure system will drift across from the west, bringing a return to generally light winds.

Forecast for Saturday until midnight
Gale Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Westerly 20 to 30 knots, reaching 35 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 4 metres offshore.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Sunday 11 August
Gale Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
Winds
Westerly 20 to 30 knots, reaching 35 knots offshore during the morning, turning southwesterly in the afternoon.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Caution
Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Monday 12 August
Winds
South to southwesterly 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots during the morning then decreasing to about 10 knots during the evening.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the evening.
Swell
Southerly 2.5 to 3 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning.


Skip it

Posted on August 9th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Looking flat as a tack this morning. The MHL data is showing nothing over a metre from its buoys dotted up and down the coast of NSW. As the picture shows, there was no hint of activity at Dee Why.

And the outlook? Well, it’s Friday morning, so there’s a nice fresh forecast from the mighty Goat awaiting your inspection…

Have a fine old Friday!

 

Nothin’ doin’ 0700

Weather Situation

A series of cold fronts are expected to maintain vigorous westerly winds until later in the weekend, when a low pressure system moves over the southern Tasman Sea and winds then tend southwesterly. The slow movement of this low pressure system is likely to develop large waves later on the weekend.

Forecast for Friday until midnight

Gale Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Westerly 25 to 35 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, increasing to 2.5 to 4 metres offshore.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Saturday 10 August

Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Westerly 25 to 30 knots.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres offshore.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers offshore, near zero chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm from the late morning.

Sunday 11 August

Winds
Westerly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 3 metres, increasing to 3 to 4 metres during the evening.
Weather
Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Posted on August 8th, 2019 in Goat's Forecast.

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued 8 August 2019: Seven day outlook for Sydney:

The weekend outlook is for:

quite a bit of wind from the west – more than enough to blow off your toupee so watch out,

quite a bit of cold – more than you’ll want having tasted a touch of Spring today,  and

quite flat surf.

It might start to come up from the south later on Sunday, but most of the SW swell will be travelling parallel to the coastline, and with the strong offshore wind pushing it back out to sea it doesn’t look like much of it should hit the shoreline.

But if the the swell beats the strong offshore wind, because of its increasing swell period  – ie the Swell wins the Battle of the Winds and Waves – the surf should be somewhere in the 1-2 metre range, and coming up at dead South places later in the day.

Monday will be a different story…. still with strong westerly winds trying to push back increasing swell.  It’ll be interesting to see who wins out – from for example the comfort of a warm car.

Friday – Saturday: flattish

Sunday: flat or as described above

Monday: say around 2-3 metres at dead South places, with sets

Tuesday: easing back, 2- 2+ metres at dead South spots, with sets

Wednesday: easing back more, into the 1-2 metre range dead South with solid sets

Thursday: down more in the 1-2 metre range dead South, with sets.

Stay Warm, Stay Cool, Stay Safe.

TG

Up in the Air

Blue sky…

Cloud/surface composite, Australia satellite image of Australia at Thu Aug  8 05:30:00 2019

MSLP Analysis for Thu Aug  8 00:00:00 2019 AUTC

Winds

 

Down in the Sea

Water temp is around 19…still pleasant enough

image

Tides

https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/maritime/usingwaterways/tides-weather/tide-tables-2019-2020.pdf

Weather from the Bureau

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Max 22
Windy. Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 5% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds north to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h turning westerly 35 to 45 km/h in the middle of the day then decreasing to 25 to 35 km/h in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 10:50 am to 1:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis IconLocationMinMax
Windy. Mostly sunny.Sydney22
Mostly sunny.Penrith21
Becoming windy. Mostly sunny.Liverpool21
Windy. Mostly sunny.Terrey Hills20
Mostly sunny.Richmond21
Becoming windy. Mostly sunny.Parramatta22
Becoming windy. Mostly sunny.Campbelltown20
Windy. Mostly sunny.Bondi20

Friday 9 August

Summary
Min 11
Max 19
Windy. Sunny.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Slight (20%) chance of a shower in the outer west. Winds northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h turning westerly 35 to 50 km/h early in the morning.

Sun protection recommended from 10:40 am to 1:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Saturday 10 August

Summary
Min 8
Max 17
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 10% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower in the outer west. Winds westerly 25 to 35 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 11:00 am to 12:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Sunday 11 August

Summary
Min 8
Max 17
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Winds westerly 25 to 35 km/h.

Sun protection recommended from 11:40 am to 12:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

Monday 12 August

Summary
Min 8
Max 18
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds westerly 15 to 25 km/h.

Tuesday 13 August

Summary
Min 7
Max 18
Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Areas of morning frost in the west. Light winds.

Wednesday 14 August

Summary
Min 8
Max 19
Mostly sunny.
Chance of any rain: 20% 

Sydney area

Sunny. Light winds.


Micro early

Posted on August 8th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Clear skies as Thursday got started. Wind was out of the WNW at 12-20 kts as we approached low tide at 0805 (it’s back to high at 1440). Had to drop the spouse at the B-line stop, so checked the beach on the way home. The only vaguely surfable waves I saw were near the Lagoon entrance at Long Reef. There were three guys bobbing around waiting for knee to waist high bumps to wobble in. As the pictures show, it was pretty much flat north and south of there.

The Goat will be along later with his thoughts on the outlook, so I’ll confine myself to observing that the models are still showing flatness through to late in the weekend ahead of a potentially interesting south pulse.

Have a great Thursday!

Longy little shutdown

Poles to Point – zippo

Looking for brekkie

Wave of the day at the lugga 0740

Weather Situation

A series of cold fronts are expected to maintain vigorous westerly winds until later on the weekend, when a low pressure system moves over the southern Tasman Sea and winds then tend southwesterly. The slow movement of this low pressure system looks set to develop large waves later on the weekend.

Forecast for Thursday until midnight

Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots turning west to northwesterly 20 to 30 knots during the morning.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
Swell
Northeasterly below 1 metre.
Weather
Cloud clearing.

Friday 9 August

Gale Warning for Friday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Westerly 25 to 30 knots, reaching up to 35 knots offshore during the day.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 4 metres offshore.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Saturday 10 August

Winds
Westerly 20 to 30 knots.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres offshore.
Swell
South to southwesterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.

On the fade but a few waves for the early

Posted on August 7th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

Another sunny morning and we still had a few waves for the early session at Dee Why. Once again the point is more busy than usual because the banks aren’t coping with the long ground swell lines. Sets looked to be less frequent than yesterday at this time. Size was in the waist on the average sets to shoulder high on the biggest ones. The MHL buoy was showing 1.25 metres from 158° at close to 14 seconds apart. Wind was coming from the NW at 6-7 kts early. It should pick up a bit as the morning goes along, but the forecast says it’ll be light and variable by midday. Tide was low at 0715 and will be back to a 1.5 m high at 1340.

Swell is predicted to fade slowly across the day, so getting in earlier rather than later is definitely the plan. The next few days currently look like being very small to flat, but around about Sunday we could have a fresh straight south pulse. If that happens, the front half of next week should see more fun conditions at south magnets…

Have a great Wednesday!

Typical set around 0700

Chest plus on the bigger ones

Occasional wall inside

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is slowly drifting east. Northerly winds are expected today ahead of a cold front which is forecast to bring a vigorous westerly change during Thursday. After this, a series of cold fronts are expected to maintain a vigorous westerly flow until the weekend when a low pressure system moves over the southern Tasman Sea.

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight

Winds
West to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots reaching up to 20 knots offshore. Winds becoming variable about 10 knots in the early afternoon then becoming north to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Northerly winds reaching up to 20 knots in the late evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning.
Weather
Sunny.

Thursday 8 August

Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Sydney Coast

Winds
Northerly 15 to 25 knots turning westerly 20 to 30 knots in the early afternoon.
Seas
1 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore in the afternoon and evening.

Friday 9 August

Winds
West to northwesterly 25 to 35 knots.
Seas
2 to 3 metres, increasing to 2 to 4 metres during the afternoon.
1st Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
2nd Swell
Northeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny.

Another morning of clean waves

Posted on August 6th, 2019 in Dee Why.

Hello Friends,

This morning sees the swell still firing at Dee Why. The biggest sets are into the head plus range and it looked pretty consistent too.  It’ll want to be because the crowd is at weekend intensity again. Wind was light and offshore for the early, and it should stay out of the westerly quarters all day. Swell has dropped a bit over the last 24 hours and as of 0600 was a touch under the 2 metre mark according to the MHL buoy data, but the 13 seconds apart and coming from 160° which means sets are wrapping around the point a bit better than yesterday.  Tide was low at 0620 and is currently coming into the 1.55 high at 1240. Air temp should warm up to 21 as it stays sunny through the daylight hours. Water is on 18C.

Outlook is for the swell to fade across the day and be into the knee to waist high range by tomorrow. Beyond that the models are saying we should expect tiny to flat through Saturday but then we should get another influx of juicy south swell that could last into mid next week. So, not a bad outlook!

Have a great day and check back later to see if I got any more pictures.

Another set wraps into the point at 0700

Lines up the beach too

The point looked consistent

The point

Mid size set arrives

 

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea is slowly drifting east, whilst a trough off the south coast that brought a weak southerly wind change in the south is weakening. Winds will become northwesterly in most areas by Wednesday then increase ahead of the next cold front, which is forecast to bring a vigorous westerly change during Thursday.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Winds
Northwest to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots about midday, then becoming west to northwesterly 10 to 20 knots in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Sunny.

Wednesday 7 August

Winds
West to northwesterly 10 to 20 knots, tending north to northwesterly in the evening.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Sunny.

Thursday 8 August

Winds
Northerly 10 to 15 knots tending northwesterly 15 to 25 knots during the morning then tending westerly 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 to 2.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southerly below 1 metre.
Weather
Partly cloudy. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening

Monday morning surf options

Posted on August 5th, 2019 in At large.

Hello Friends,

Looks like a good morning to go for a surf at a south magnet. Not huge, but it was clean and wave faces were into the shoulder high range on sets at North Steyne, Curly and the point at Dee Why. Tide was low at 0530 and is currently on its way to the 1.5 m high at 1145. Wind was lightly offshore early and the Bureau says it should be mellow this morning before gradually picking up and swing NW later. Should be sunny all day too. Swell was straight south at 2 metres and about 10 seconds apart. Ocean is 18C according to Beachwatch.

Outlook is for surfable conditions to persist through to midweek. Both the ECM and Wavewatch models are predicting small to marginal conditons for a coupld of days and then, at the weekend they show it coming back up. There’s a fair divergence between the two about how much it’ll ramp, ECM is currently showing similar to today for the weekend, but Wavewatch’s projecting 3-4 metres. Either way it looks interesting.

Have a great day one and all!

Busy at the point 0740

Casual at the point

Tiny sliders at the Bower for one person at 0725

Setty but definitely the odd nice one at North Steyne

Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the western Tasman Sea is slowly drifting east, with winds over New South Wales waters generally tending northerly during the course of the day. A weak trough is expected to bring a south to southwesterly wind shift along the south coast this evening. The next significant cold front is due on Thursday.

Forecast for Monday until midnight

Winds
Variable about 10 knots becoming north to northwesterly 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Winds reaching up to 20 knots offshore in the late evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Partly cloudy.
Caution
Surf conditions may be more powerful than they appear and are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

Tuesday 6 August

Winds
North to northwesterly 15 to 20 knots turning west to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots before dawn then tending west to northwesterly in the middle of the day.
Seas
1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres.
Weather
Sunny.

Wednesday 7 August

Winds
Westerly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots during the afternoon.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres.
Weather
Sunny.

Waves this morning

Posted on August 4th, 2019 in Dee Why.

 

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