"Stay happy and you'll be perfectly fine" - Jack Norris

The Goat’s Surf Forecast

Surf forecast issued Thursday 21 July 2011: seven day outlook for Sydney:

Black as the Acer outside at the moment, plenty of rain, foul winds, the buoys are showing large swell the models are saying it’s big at sea, but… you know what? as that Kev bloke would say… what I’ve seen doesn’t seem to be matching up with that on the ground, on the coast ( to pay homage to Rex).  Why is it so ??  Well there is a lot of wind messing up the “large long period swell”, but I’ve had a theory for a long time about swell which has a lot of East in it – the surf size never matches up with what the models suggest the size should be – and I suspect it may be because there is a lot of bounceback off the land when the oceanswell hits a coast straight on – much more so than when it arrives at an angle.  Having said that – while it should be “big” tomorrow, it’ll probably be “huge” instead, just to prove me wrong!

So my best guess at the moment:

Friday: maybe 3-4 metres East South East

Saturday: similar

Sunday: similar, again

Monday: 2-3 metres East South East

Tuesday: 2-3 metres South East

Wednesday: 1-2 metres South East

Thursday: 1 metre or less South East

Water temp is around 19.

Looks like the Bureau expects the double Lows to move away a bit more quickly than previuosly..

Weather from the Bureau:

Forecast for the rest of Thursday

Summary
Rain. Windy.
Chance of any rain: 90%

Sydney area

Cloudy. Rain, heavy at times near the coast. Winds in the west, southwesterly averaging 15 to 25 km/h. Elsewhere, southerly averaging up to 50 km/h.

Dangerous surf conditions, hazardous for coastal activities such as swimming, surfing and rock fishing, are expected.

Friday 22 July

Summary
Min 11
Max 16
Showers.
Chance of any rain: 95%
Rainfall amount: 15 to 30 mm

Sydney area

Cloudy. Showers, more frequent near the coast. Winds south to southwesterly averaging up to 25 km/h.

Dangerous surf conditions, hazardous for coastal activities such as swimming, surfing and rock fishing, are expected.

No UV Alert, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Around Sydney

Location Min Max
Sydney 11 16
Penrith 9 15
Liverpool 7 16
Terrey Hills 10 14
Richmond 8 15
Parramatta 10 15
Campbelltown 7 15
Bondi 14 16

Saturday 23 July

Summary
Min 11
Max 16
A few showers.

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Scattered showers, more frequent along the coastal fringe. Winds south to southwesterly averaging up to 35 km/h decreasing below 30 km/h by early evening.

Sunday 24 July

Summary
Min 9
Max 16
A few showers.

Sydney area

Partly cloudy. Isolated showers tending scattered near the coast. Winds south to southwesterly averaging up to 25 km/h.

Monday 25 July

Summary
Min 7
Max 17
Possible morning shower.

Sydney area

The chance of showers during the morning. Mostly sunny day. Winds northwesterly and light.

Tuesday 26 July

Summary
Min 7
Max 18
Mostly sunny.

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds west to northwesterly averaging 10 to 20 km/h tending west to southwesterly during the afternoon.

Wednesday 27 July

Summary
Min 8
Max 20
Mostly sunny.

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Winds westerly and light.

Thursday 28 July

Summary
Min 9
Max 20
Mostly sunny.

Sydney area

Mostly sunny. Light winds.