Blustery early

Posted by: on December 20th, 2012

Mid-morning sth Narra

Aiming at Marquesas
Hello Friends,

Wind was out of the NW early and it was flattening out what little wave energy we had as the day got started. The MHL buoy off Sydney was showing 1.3 metres of 6 second period NE wind swell, but on the beach at Dee Why, it was struggling to make the knee to waist high mark.

The Bureau says we can expect 25-30 kts of southerly around 1400-1500 and it warns of dangerous surf conditions arriving at the same time. As of 0600 I couldn’t really see anything obvious headed our way. Swell has spiked way down at Eden, but it’s short period stuff and it couldn’t travel all the way up here for half a day or so. Anyway, I don’t think this afternoon’s change will bring us any quality.

The Bureau’s dangerous surf advisory is based on their expectation of swell from TC Evan arriving at around the time of the change. Looking at the buoy data from up the coast, I don’t see any evidence of the swell though. You’d expect that being considerably closer to the source they’d be showing something…

It looks as though the wind will basically be onshore to sideshore across the next three days, so whatever we see from Evan will probably be best enjoyed early.

Have yourself a top old Thursday everyone!

Weather Situation
A high pressure ridge over the Tasman Sea is weakening. A southerly change associated with a cold front crossing the southern Tasman Sea will develop on the far south coast of New South Wales early on Thursday. The cold front will move along the south and central coasts on Thursday before weakening on the far north coast on Friday. Following the front another high pressure system is expected to move to the east of Tasmania later on Friday extending a ridge toward the north coast. This new high pressure system will move slowly toward New Zealand over the weekend.
Forecast for Thursday until midnight
Winds
Northwest to northeasterly 15 to 25 knots shifting southerly 25 to 30 knots around the middle of the day then tending southeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the evening.
Seas
Up to 2 metres increasing to 3 metres by early evening.
Swell
Easterly about 2 metres.
Weather
The chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Large swells breaking dangerously close inshore.
Friday 21 December
Winds
South to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending east to southeasterly during the day.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly 2 metres.
Weather
Large swells breaking dangerously close inshore.
Saturday 22 December
Winds
East to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Easterly 2 metres.
Weather
Large swells breaking dangerously close inshore.

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